We came across a bullish thesis on Recursion Pharmaceuticals, Inc. on Emil Hartela Investing’s Substack by Emil. In this article, we will summarize the bulls’ thesis on RXRX. Recursion Pharmaceuticals, Inc.'s share was trading at $4.6300 as of September 25th. Best Biotech ETFs To Buy Photo by National Cancer Institute on Unsplash Recursion Pharmaceuticals (RXRX) is emerging as a pioneer at the intersection of biology, chemistry, and AI, with a mission to industrialize drug discovery through the creation ...

The volatile biotech industry has done reasonably well so far in 2025 amid the ongoing tariff saga. Most pharma/biotech bigwigs are now investing heavily in manufacturing plants/operations in the United States as the Trump administration threatened of levying heavy tariffs on pharmaceutical imports (upto 250%) in a bid to boost domestic production. While the ongoing geopolitical tensions continue to be a headwind, given the continuous need for innovative medical treatments (regardless of the state of the ec ...

Core Insights - The healthcare sector has underperformed in the S&P 500, with gains of about 10% in 2025 compared to a flat performance in healthcare [1] - Healthcare stocks are currently trading at a 10% discount to their fair value, marking one of the cheapest valuations in over five years [1][3] - Health tech is highlighted as a promising segment within healthcare, showing strong fundamentals and potential for capital growth [2][6] Healthcare Sector Performance - The healthcare sector is characterized by volatility and complexity, with both opportunities and risks tied to innovation [1] - The Health Care Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLV) has only increased by 3% since April, indicating underperformance relative to the broader market [2] Health Tech Segment - Health tech companies are capital and R&D intensive, focusing on disrupting traditional healthcare practices [2] - The ROBO Global Healthcare Technology and Innovation ETF (HTEC) has gained nearly 25% since April, outperforming the broader healthcare sector [2] - HTEC is currently trading at the bottom of its historic EV/sales ratio, suggesting a potential for correction and growth [3] Innovation and M&A Activity - Accelerating innovation in areas like genomics and robotics is driving growth in health tech [3][4] - AI-driven drug discovery is expected to significantly impact the sector, with an estimated $236 billion in revenues at risk due to expiring patents by 2030 [4] Valuation and Market Conditions - The healthcare sector is viewed as undervalued, presenting opportunities for investors seeking capital growth [6] - Macroeconomic pressures such as high-interest rates and inflation are easing, while demand for healthcare remains strong [6]

Core Insights - Recursion Pharmaceuticals (RXRX) has seen a 5.5% increase in stock price over the past month following the acquisition of Rallybio's full stake in their joint venture for developing REV102, a treatment for hypophosphatasia (HPP) [1][2][6] - The acquisition allows RXRX to independently advance the program, with a total payment of $25 million to Rallybio, including upfront and contingent equity [2] - Despite a significant setback in May 2025, where the company discontinued three key drug candidates, RXRX retains a robust pipeline and $509 million in cash, which is expected to sustain operations into mid-2027 [3][12][13] Company Strategy - RXRX aims to revolutionize drug discovery by leveraging AI-powered models to identify promising clinical candidates, potentially reducing research costs and improving efficiency [9][10] - The company is focusing on developing candidates like REC-4881 for familial adenomatous polyposis and REC-1245 for solid tumors, with data readouts expected in the coming years [12][13] - RXRX has ongoing collaborations with major pharmaceutical companies, which could enhance its pipeline and revenue potential [14] Market Position - RXRX's stock has underperformed compared to the industry and the S&P 500, with a year-to-date decline of 20.3% [4][5] - The company is trading at a discount to the industry, with a price-to-book value ratio of 2.35 compared to the industry average of 3.08 [17] - Loss estimates for 2025 remain constant at $1.34 per share, while estimates for 2026 have narrowed from $1.17 to $1.08 [21] Future Outlook - The successful development and approval of RXRX's pipeline candidates could validate its AI platform and significantly enhance shareholder value [25] - The recent volatility in RXRX's stock is viewed as temporary, with potential for multi-bagger returns as clinical studies progress [26] - The company's discounted valuation presents an attractive entry point for new investors looking to capitalize on long-term growth potential [26]

Core Insights - Recursion Pharmaceuticals (RXRX) shares increased by 8.7% following the announcement of acquiring Rallybio's (RLYB) full interest in their joint venture for developing REV102, a treatment for hypophosphatasia (HPP) [2][4] Company Developments - The acquisition allows Recursion Pharmaceuticals to independently accelerate the development of REV102, potentially the first oral, disease-modifying therapy for HPP [4][6] - RXRX will pay $7.5 million upfront and an additional $12.5 million contingent upon further preclinical studies, along with a $5 million milestone payment upon the initiation of dosing in an early-stage clinical study [7][8] - The REV102 program is expected to begin phase I studies in late 2026, with initial preclinical data showing a favorable safety profile [6][10] Market Context - Year-to-date, RXRX shares have declined by 20.7%, contrasting with a 2.9% decline in the industry [5] - The acquisition has strengthened Rallybio's balance sheet, extending its cash runway into mid-2027, leading to a 50.2% increase in Rallybio's shares [8] Treatment Potential - REV102 targets ENPP1, aiming to restore the balance of PPi for proper bone mineralization, addressing the underlying cause of HPP [9][11] - The treatment could provide a more accessible and cost-effective long-term option for over 7,800 diagnosed patients in the U.S. and EU, improving patient convenience and quality of life compared to current enzyme replacement therapies [11][13]

Core Insights - Recursion Pharmaceuticals has seen a 27% decline in share price year-to-date and is trading over 55% below its 52-week high of $12, yet it continues to attract interest due to its innovative AI-driven drug discovery approach [2] - The company's primary asset, Recursion OS, utilizes automation and machine learning to enhance drug discovery, potentially accelerating the development process significantly [3] - Recursion OS has commercial potential beyond the company's own projects, as it can be licensed to other pharmaceutical firms, with existing partnerships with Roche and Genentech [4] Financial Performance - Over the past four quarters, Recursion reported a net loss of $575 million, resulting in a net margin of -961%, and an operating cash flow of -$389 million, corresponding to a margin of -650% [5] - Despite operational losses, the company maintains a strong financial position with low debt of $93 million against a market capitalization of $2.1 billion, leading to a debt-to-equity ratio of 4.4% [6] - Recursion has $500 million in cash and cash equivalents, representing 38.3% of its total assets of $1.3 billion, providing a solid runway for ongoing operations [6] Growth Potential - Recursion's revenue primarily comes from collaboration agreements with pharmaceutical partners, which validate its AI-driven platform and provide immediate financial support [7] - The merger with Exscientia has resulted in a combined pipeline with projected peak sales potential exceeding $1 billion, highlighting the long-term revenue potential for investors [8][9] - The licensing of Recursion OS could serve as an additional revenue source, enhancing the company's financial outlook [9]

Industry Overview - The biotech industry has shown resilience amid global trade tensions, with ongoing geopolitical issues presenting challenges, yet the demand for innovative medical treatments remains strong [1] - Strategic collaborations and acquisitions are increasingly common as large pharma and biotech companies seek to expand their product portfolios and pipelines, particularly in the context of AI-driven drug discovery [2][9] - The Zacks Biomedical and Genetics industry is currently ranked 86, placing it in the top 35% of over 246 Zacks industries, indicating a decent outlook driven by consistent demand for medical advancements [15] Market Trends - The focus on high-profile drug performance and innovative pipeline development is critical, with significant R&D expenditures required to create breakthrough treatments [6] - Successful commercialization is essential for drug uptake, often leading smaller biotech firms to collaborate with larger companies for shared sales or royalties [7] - The recent emphasis on AI technology for drug discovery is expected to attract further investment into the biotech sector [11] Company Performance - Exelixis, Inc. (EXEL) is positioned well with its lead drug, Cabometyx, which is gaining traction in the oncology market, and its shares have surged 31% year to date [35][36] - Verona Pharma (VRNA) has seen a 94.8% increase in shares year to date, driven by the uptake of its drug Ohtuvayre for COPD, with further growth anticipated [24] - Alkermes (ALKS) is benefiting from strong sales of its proprietary drugs and has a Zacks Rank of 1, with EPS estimates for 2025 rising to $1.79 [26][27] - Immunocore Holdings (IMCR) focuses on TCR bispecific immunotherapies and has gained 11.4% year to date, with ongoing studies expected to enhance its market position [30][32] - Kiniska Pharmaceuticals (KNSA) is experiencing growth with its FDA-approved drug Arcalyst and has seen a 37.7% increase in shares [39][40]

Core Insights - Astellas Pharma U.S. Inc. and MBC BioLabs announced DeepSeq.AI, Inc. and Serna Bio as winners of the Future Innovator Prize, which provides access to advanced lab facilities and Astellas' R&D capabilities [1][2][3] Group 1: Prize Overview - The Astellas Future Innovator Prize is awarded to pioneering scientists with innovative research that aligns with Astellas' Focus Area Approach, including Genetic Regulation, Immuno-Oncology, Targeted Protein Degradation, and Blindness & Regeneration [5] - This year, Astellas received over 50 applications, with the winners selected based on the strength of their innovation and therapeutic potential [2][5] Group 2: Company Profiles - DeepSeq.AI focuses on AI-driven large molecule discovery, utilizing high-throughput wet lab assays and generative models to optimize biologics, claiming to accelerate IND timelines by 10x and reduce costs by 50% [9] - Serna Bio is developing small molecules to upregulate protein translation by targeting functional RNA structures, leveraging a comprehensive platform for target discovery and chemical optimization [10] Group 3: Statements from Leadership - Issei Tsukamoto from Astellas emphasized the importance of supporting startups that have the potential to transform patient care globally [3] - Doug Crawford from MBC BioLabs highlighted the role of the Future Innovator Prize in providing access to a community of entrepreneurs and expert mentorship to accelerate early-stage breakthroughs [4]

Core Viewpoint - Recursion Pharmaceuticals (RXRX) has experienced a significant stock decline of 21.6% in May due to weaker-than-expected Q1 2025 results and the discontinuation of key drug candidates [1][2][15] Financial Performance - RXRX reported first-quarter 2025 results where both earnings and revenues missed estimates, leading to a year-to-date stock decline of 36.2%, compared to the industry’s 3.8% decline [1][4] - The stock is currently trading below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, indicating underperformance in the sector and the S&P 500 [4] Pipeline Developments - The company has discontinued the development of its lead candidates, REC-994 and REC-2282, due to unfavorable efficacy results, and also halted the mid-stage study on REC-3964 [2][3][15] - RXRX is focusing on other candidates, such as REC-4881, which has shown a preliminary median 43% reduction in polyp burden in a phase Ib/II study, with additional data expected in H2 2025 [11] - Other candidates in early-stage development include REC-1245 for solid tumors and REC-617 for advanced solid tumors, with cash reserves of $509 million expected to sustain operations into mid-2027 [12] Strategic Collaborations - RXRX has ongoing collaborations with major pharmaceutical companies like Roche, Bayer, and Sanofi, which could enhance its pipeline and revenue potential [13] - The company recently received $7 million in collaboration revenues from Sanofi following a significant discovery milestone [13] Competitive Landscape - RXRX faces intense competition from other biotech firms and tech-driven drug discovery companies, which may challenge its ability to maintain a competitive edge [14] - The company’s investigational candidates are still in early stages, raising concerns about the timeline for commercialization [15] Valuation Metrics - RXRX is trading at a premium price/book value ratio of 1.88 compared to the industry average of 1.20, although it is below its five-year mean of 3.65 [16] - Loss estimates for 2025 remain constant at $1.34 per share, while 2026 estimates have narrowed from $1.20 to $1.17 [19] Future Outlook - The company is positioned as a leader in AI-driven drug discovery, with a strong focus on Precision Oncology and Rare Diseases, which could enhance shareholder value if pipeline candidates are successfully developed [22] - Recent setbacks in the pipeline are viewed as temporary, and the decline in stock price may present an attractive entry point for new investors [23]

Core Insights - Recursion and Enamine have collaborated to create 10 enriched screening libraries from over 15,000 newly synthesized compounds aimed at accelerating drug discovery against 100 key drug targets in challenging biological areas [1][3] - Enamine's REAL Space contains 64.9 billion make-on-demand molecules, providing a vast chemical library that enhances the drug discovery process when combined with Recursion's AI/ML platform [2][8] - The partnership allows for the development of smaller, focused libraries that outperform traditional high-throughput screening methods, thereby improving the efficiency of drug discovery [2][4] Company Overview - Recursion is a clinical stage TechBio company that utilizes its Recursion OS platform to generate one of the world's largest proprietary biological and chemical datasets, enabling advanced drug discovery [5][6] - Enamine is a Contract Research Organisation with a unique focus on integrated discovery services, offering access to 4.5 million screening compounds and 350,000 building blocks to accelerate drug discovery efforts [7] Technological Advancements - The collaboration leverages Recursion's sophisticated machine-learning algorithms to predict small molecule compatibility with protein targets, enhancing the selection process for promising drug candidates [2][3] - Enamine's REAL Space has been utilized in ultra-large virtual screening campaigns, and this partnership aims to explore its potential across multiple targets at scale [4][9]