Core Viewpoint - The domestic oilseed market shows mixed performance, with canola meal futures rising while other oil futures decline as of June 30, indicating volatility in the sector [1]. Price Movements - Canola meal futures increased by 1.14% to 2572.00 CNY/ton - Canola oil futures decreased by 0.43% to 9421.00 CNY/ton - Palm oil futures fell by 0.69% to 8308.00 CNY/ton - Soybean oil futures dropped by 0.32% to 7976.00 CNY/ton [1][2]. Futures Market Data - Soybean oil opened at 7994.00 CNY, closing at 8002.00 CNY - Palm oil opened at 8366.00 CNY, closing at 8366.00 CNY - Canola oil opened and closed at 9466.00 CNY - Soybean meal opened at 2942.00 CNY, closing at 2938.00 CNY - Canola meal opened at 2558.00 CNY, closing at 2543.00 CNY [2]. Warehouse Receipt Data - Soybean oil warehouse receipts remained stable at 18882 lots - Palm oil warehouse receipts increased by 470 lots to 470 lots - Canola oil warehouse receipts remained stable at 300 lots - Soybean meal warehouse receipts rose by 9610 lots to 35561 lots - Canola meal warehouse receipts decreased by 1141 lots to 21544 lots [3]. Basis and Spot Prices - Canola meal spot price is 2475 CNY, with a futures price of 2509 CNY, resulting in a basis of -68 CNY and a basis rate of -2.75% - Palm oil spot price is 8586 CNY, with a futures price of 8366 CNY, resulting in a basis of 220 CNY and a basis rate of 2.56% - Soybean one spot price is 4295 CNY, with a futures price of 4144 CNY, resulting in a basis of 151 CNY and a basis rate of 3.52% - Soybean meal spot price is 2906 CNY, with a futures price of 2938 CNY, resulting in a basis of -32 CNY and a basis rate of -1.10% - Soybean oil spot price is 8254 CNY, with a futures price of 8002 CNY, resulting in a basis of 252 CNY and a basis rate of 3.05% [4].

Core Insights - The domestic futures market for crude oil saw a significant increase, with the main crude oil futures rising nearly 9% [1] - The main crude oil futures closed at 535.20 yuan per barrel, while fuel oil and low-sulfur fuel oil also experienced substantial gains [1] Price Movements - As of June 13, the main crude oil futures opened at 492.90 yuan, with a previous close of 495.70 yuan and a last settlement price of 491.10 yuan [2] - Fuel oil opened at 2979.00 yuan, with a previous close of 2997.00 yuan and a last settlement price of 2982.00 yuan [2] - Liquid petroleum gas opened at 4137.00 yuan, with a previous close of 4141.00 yuan and a last settlement price of 4148.00 yuan [2] - Low-sulfur fuel oil opened at 3629.00 yuan, with a previous close of 3645.00 yuan and a last settlement price of 3640.00 yuan [2] Inventory Data - As of June 12, the inventory data showed that the medium-sulfur crude oil futures warehouse held 4,029,000 barrels, remaining unchanged from the previous trading day [3] - Fuel oil futures warehouse held 24,750 tons, also unchanged from the previous trading day [3] - Liquid petroleum gas futures warehouse saw a decrease of 125 contracts, totaling 9,010 contracts [3] - Low-sulfur fuel oil warehouse futures held 0 tons, remaining unchanged from the previous trading day [3] Basis Data - The basis data indicated that fuel oil, asphalt, liquid petroleum gas, and low-sulfur fuel oil contracts experienced a 'backwardation' phenomenon, where spot prices exceeded futures prices [3] - For fuel oil, the spot price was 5,287.5 yuan, while the contract price was 2,509 yuan, resulting in a basis of 2,305 yuan and a basis rate of 43.59% [3] - The basis for liquid petroleum gas was 764 yuan, with a basis rate of 15.92% [3]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic futures market for crude oil shows a significant decline, with the main crude oil futures dropping over 3% on April 30, indicating a bearish trend in the market [1]. Group 1: Price Movements - As of April 30, the main crude oil futures fell by 3.50%, settling at 471.00 yuan per barrel [1]. - Fuel oil futures decreased by 1.88%, priced at 2925.00 yuan per ton [1]. - Low-sulfur fuel oil futures dropped by 2.75%, reaching 3391.00 yuan per ton [1]. - Liquefied petroleum gas futures saw a slight increase of 0.55%, priced at 4407.00 yuan per ton [1]. - The opening prices for various contracts on April 30 included SC crude oil at 480.10 yuan, fuel oil at 2945.00 yuan, and liquefied petroleum gas at 4389.00 yuan [2]. Group 2: Inventory Data - As of April 29, the inventory data showed that the medium-sulfur crude oil futures warehouse held 4,644,000 barrels, remaining stable compared to the previous trading day [3]. - Fuel oil futures inventory increased by 4,950 tons, totaling 51,120 tons [3]. - The inventory for asphalt futures remained unchanged at 34,070 tons [3]. - Liquefied petroleum gas futures inventory was stable at 7,757 hands [3]. - Low-sulfur fuel oil futures inventory also remained unchanged at 42,250 tons [3]. Group 3: Basis Data - The basis data indicated that fuel oil, asphalt, liquefied petroleum gas, and low-sulfur fuel oil contracts experienced a 'backwardation' phenomenon, where spot prices exceeded futures prices [3]. - The basis for fuel oil was calculated at 2,481 yuan, with a basis rate of 45.42% [3]. - The basis for asphalt was 209 yuan, with a basis rate of 5.73% [3]. - The basis for liquefied petroleum gas was 584 yuan, with a basis rate of 11.76% [3]. - The basis for low-sulfur fuel oil was 131 yuan, with a basis rate of 3.66% [3].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the macroeconomic inventory cycle and its impact on commodity trading, highlighting the challenges in relying on U.S. demand to drive global economic growth in 2025 due to low inventory levels in China and potential recession risks in the U.S. [3][10] Group 1: Macro Inventory Cycle - The macro inventory cycle is crucial for understanding systemic risks in commodities, with historical trading logic based on inventory changes leading to various market phenomena [4][11]. - The article outlines different macro trading logics for various years, including U.S. recession in 2024 and China's inventory reduction in 2023 [5][6][10]. Group 2: Commodity Trading Phenomena - Several unusual phenomena in commodity trading are identified, such as significant price drops despite low inventory levels and high inventory not leading to price increases [11][12]. - A model developed to explain these phenomena shows a correlation between basis rates and commodity prices, indicating that understanding when to focus on supply-demand logic versus macro logic is essential [14]. Group 3: U.S. Economic Indicators - Key economic indicators from the U.S. show mixed signals, with manufacturing PMI at a 17-month high while service sector PMI has declined significantly [26][27]. - Consumer confidence in the U.S. has dropped for three consecutive months, reaching its lowest level since June 2024, indicating potential economic challenges ahead [28]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The article suggests that if issues arise in the Western economy, the probability of such events may be higher than previously thought, with a potential shift of capital from the West to the East beginning in 2025 [29].