Core Insights - The Ministry of Ecology and Environment has released a draft for public consultation on six methodologies related to greenhouse gas voluntary emission reduction projects, indicating an acceleration in the development of the CCER methodology system [1][2] - Zhang Xiliang, Director of Tsinghua University's Energy and Environment Economics Research Institute, confirmed that the CCER methodology framework is currently under construction and is expected to be published by the end of 2025 or next year [1][2] Methodology Development - The CCER methodology is crucial for promoting the voluntary carbon market, with initial methodologies covering grid-connected solar thermal power, offshore wind power, afforestation carbon sinks, and mangrove restoration [2][3] - As of now, 19 methodologies have been released in five batches, but the number is still limited, necessitating a comprehensive methodology system to clarify project inclusion and establish relevant standards [2][3] Market Dynamics - The CCER methodology system aims to adopt a top-down approach, focusing on key sectors such as energy, buildings, and transportation, based on national strategic needs [3][4] - The development of carbon financial products, including futures and derivatives based on carbon emission rights and CCER, is seen as a necessary direction for future growth [4][5] Current Market Status - The current spot market for carbon trading has a participation rate exceeding 90%, indicating a significant level of engagement from enterprises [5][6] - The reasonable carbon price range is estimated to be between 70 to 100 yuan, reflecting the scarcity of carbon emission allowances and the constraints of carbon reduction targets [5][6] Future Challenges and Opportunities - The goal of achieving comprehensive coverage of the national carbon emission trading market by 2027 presents challenges, particularly regarding data quality and the complexity of managing new sectors [6][7] - Despite existing differences in carbon pricing between China and developed economies like the EU, the long-term trend suggests that China's carbon price will continue to rise, potentially converging with EU prices over the next two to three decades [7]

Core Points - The Ministry of Ecology and Environment has released the fifth batch of CCER methodology drafts, expanding the scope to include six new areas such as energy efficiency in existing public buildings and renewable energy hydrogen production [3][5] - The CCER methodology system is currently under construction, with a comprehensive framework expected to be published by the end of 2025 or early next year [3][12] - The CCER market has seen significant activity, with a cumulative transaction volume of approximately 3.19 million tons and a transaction value exceeding 267 million yuan as of October 13, 2025 [8] CCER Methodology Expansion - The new methodologies cover diverse sectors, including public building energy efficiency, agricultural waste treatment, and geothermal energy, marking a shift towards more integrated and industry-specific approaches [4][5] - The methodologies are designed to be precise, focusing on specific criteria such as building type and compliance with national standards, which enhances the credibility of the carbon reduction claims [6][10] Market Dynamics - The demand for CCERs is increasing, particularly as the national carbon emissions trading market expands to include industries like steel, cement, and aluminum smelting, while supply remains relatively limited [4][8] - The CCER trading price has risen due to the interplay of supply and demand, with the market expected to grow as more projects are developed under the new methodologies [4][8] Focus on Consumption End - The methodologies are increasingly addressing emissions at the consumption end, with recent additions focusing on sectors that were previously underrepresented, such as agriculture and building energy efficiency [9][10] - This shift indicates a strategic move towards supporting high-carbon industries in their transition to lower carbon operations [9][10] Future Developments - The establishment of a comprehensive CCER methodology system is anticipated, which will clarify project eligibility and set standards for various sectors [12][13] - Continuous updates and evaluations of the methodologies will be necessary to adapt to evolving industry needs and technological advancements [13][14]