CPI数据采集危机

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服务业通胀“再点火” 美国7月核心CPI增速冲至1月以来峰值
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2025-08-12 13:33
Core Insights - The core inflation level in the U.S. accelerated in July to its highest level since the beginning of the year, driven by a rebound in service prices, raising concerns about the impact of tariff policies [1][4] - The July core Consumer Price Index (CPI), excluding volatile food and energy categories, rose by 0.3% month-on-month, marking the largest increase since January, with a year-on-year increase of 3.1% [1][4] - Overall CPI increased by 0.2% month-on-month and remained steady year-on-year at 2.7%, slightly below economists' expectations [1][4] Service Costs - Service prices, excluding energy, rose by 0.4% month-on-month, the largest increase this year, with significant jumps in airfare, healthcare, and entertainment services [4] - Housing costs, as the largest component of the service sector, saw residential prices increase by 0.2% for the second consecutive month, while hotel accommodation prices continued to decline [5] Federal Reserve Implications - The Federal Reserve is facing new challenges as rising service prices may complicate efforts to control inflation, with ongoing debates about the long-term inflationary pressures from tariffs [4][6] - The average hourly wage, adjusted for inflation, increased by 1.4% year-on-year, indicating a potential impact on consumer spending expectations [6] Data Collection Concerns - There are growing concerns about the quality of economic data, particularly CPI data collection, due to budget cuts and staffing reductions, leading to a temporary decrease in data collection in several states [7] - The proportion of "cross-unit estimates" in CPI data has risen significantly, indicating potential volatility in the reported figures, although economists believe this will not lead to bias in CPI data [7][8]