Core Viewpoint - The U.S. stock market experienced a dramatic intraday reversal, dropping 1.5% after initially rising 1.9%, with over $2 trillion in market value evaporating during the session, driven by Nvidia's earnings report and a mixed non-farm payroll report [1] Group 1: Market Reactions - Nvidia's strong earnings report failed to sustain market optimism, leading to a 3% decline in its stock price after an initial 5% rise, indicating that good news not being rewarded can signal bad omens [1] - The cryptocurrency market faced significant pressure, with Bitcoin dropping below $90,000, contributing to a broader sell-off in risk assets [3] Group 2: Economic Indicators - Concerns were raised regarding private credit vulnerabilities, as Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook warned about potential asset valuation weaknesses, which led to widening spreads in investment-grade and high-yield bonds [2] - The September non-farm payroll report, while stable, did not provide clear guidance for the Federal Reserve's December interest rate decision, with the probability of a rate cut only slightly increasing to 35% [2] Group 3: Market Dynamics - Commodity Trading Advisors (CTAs) accelerated their selling as the market broke through short-term technical thresholds, with a key mid-term level at 6456 points being closely monitored [3] - The re-emergence of short positions occurred as market momentum reversed, indicating a shift in trader sentiment [4] - Poor performance in key Asian tech stocks, such as SK Hynix and SoftBank, failed to provide a positive external environment for U.S. markets [4] - Market liquidity significantly deteriorated, with the liquidity size of top buy-sell orders in the S&P 500 dropping to approximately $5 million, well below the average of $11 million for the year, making the market more susceptible to large trades [4] - The trading volume of exchange-traded funds (ETFs) surged to 41% of total market volume, indicating that market movements are increasingly driven by macro factors rather than individual stock fundamentals [4]

一场本应由亮眼财报和理想数据点燃的狂欢，却意外演变成一场残酷的抛售。隔夜，美国股市上演了数月来最惊心动魄的盘中逆转令投资者措手 不及。 周四，在芯片巨头英伟达超预期财报和一份"金发姑娘"式非农就业报告的双重利好刺激下，美股大幅高开。标普500指数开盘后一小时内一度飙升 1.9%，然而乐观情绪未能持续。市场风云突变，指数掉头向下，最终收盘跌1.5%，盘中高点到低点的市值蒸发超过2万亿美元。英伟达股价从一 度上涨超5%到收盘转跌，比特币跌破9万美元，风险资产全线承压。 这是自4月份美股市场动荡以来最大的单日盘中波幅，恐慌指数VIX则一度跃升至26以上。而这突如其来的暴跌令交易员们困惑不已，市场充斥着 各种解释，从对美联储降息前景的疑虑到对私人信贷风险的担忧。 然而，在高盛看来，单一的催化剂并不足以解释这场剧烈的逆转。高盛合伙人John Flood在给客户的报告中直言："目前市场上伤痕累累。"他指 出，投资者已完全进入"盈亏保护模式"，过度关注于对冲市场拥挤的风险。 他认为，英伟达的强劲财报并未像交易员预期的那样成为风险偏好"解除警报"的信号，反而促使他们寻求对冲以防范进一步损失。 九大祸因：高盛交易员的全面复盘 ...