这是自4月份美股市场动荡以来最大的单日盘中波幅，恐慌指数VIX则一度跃升至26以上。而这突如其来的暴跌令交易员们困惑不已，市场充斥着各种解释，从 对美联储降息前景的疑虑到对私人信贷风险的担忧。 然而，在高盛看来， 单一的催化剂并不足以解释这场剧烈的逆转 。 高盛合伙人John Flood在给客户的报告中直言："目前市场上伤痕累累。"他指出，投资者 已完全进入"盈亏保护模式"，过度关注于对冲市场拥挤的风险。 面对美股此次暴跌，很多投资者可能在问：如何才能避免下一次？答案是： 从被动应对，转向主动规划。 当风暴来临时再寻找避风港，为时已晚。真正的智 者，在风平浪静时就已看清全年的航向。 现在入手见闻历，帮您盯紧2026年每一个可能引发市场巨震的关键日。 九大祸因：高盛交易员的全面复盘 一场本应由亮眼财报和理想数据点燃的狂欢，却意外演变成一场残酷的抛售。隔夜，美国股市上演了数月来最惊心动魄的盘中逆转令投资者措手不及。 周四，在芯片巨头英伟达超预期财报和一份"金发姑娘"式非农就业报告的双重利好刺激下，美股大幅高开。标普500指数开盘后一小时内一度飙升1.9%，然而 乐观情绪未能持续。市场风云突变，指数掉头向下，最终收 ...

在英伟达（NVDA.US）超预期季绩和黄仁勋的乐观展望下，美股开盘后曾一路走高，以纳斯达克指数（IXIC.US）为例，高开2.18%之后曾 一路走高，最高到达23,147.33点，涨2.58%，随后急转直下，最低跌2.31%，上下波幅高达4.89%，收市跌2.15%，或跌486.18点，报道 22,087.05点，见下图。 道琼斯工业平均指数和标普500指数的单日走势也与纳斯达克指数一致。与此同时，华尔街的恐慌指数VIX指数也创下了4月末以来的最高收 盘水平，单日涨11.67%，报26.42点，最近5日的涨幅达到32.10%。 2025年11月20日晚，美股在短短一小时内出现重大逆转。 比特币等继续下跌。比特币价格进一步下跌至8.58万美元。 对于美股的逆转，市场普遍认为主要原因有很多个方面： 科技股"利好出尽"引发的估值忧虑 英伟达发布的第3季营收、利润远超市场预期，但市场或将此解读为"利好出尽"，加上市场对AI产业盈利兑现能力的忧虑并没有消除，投资 者或担心英伟达的增长与市场份额已触顶，开始获利套现。 美股之后，亚太区股市大跌，且尤以AI芯片和关联产业股最为严重，例如英伟达的股东软银集团跌超10%，英伟达 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. stock market experienced a dramatic intraday reversal, dropping 1.5% after initially rising 1.9%, with over $2 trillion in market value evaporating during the session, driven by Nvidia's earnings report and a mixed non-farm payroll report [1] Group 1: Market Reactions - Nvidia's strong earnings report failed to sustain market optimism, leading to a 3% decline in its stock price after an initial 5% rise, indicating that good news not being rewarded can signal bad omens [1] - The cryptocurrency market faced significant pressure, with Bitcoin dropping below $90,000, contributing to a broader sell-off in risk assets [3] Group 2: Economic Indicators - Concerns were raised regarding private credit vulnerabilities, as Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook warned about potential asset valuation weaknesses, which led to widening spreads in investment-grade and high-yield bonds [2] - The September non-farm payroll report, while stable, did not provide clear guidance for the Federal Reserve's December interest rate decision, with the probability of a rate cut only slightly increasing to 35% [2] Group 3: Market Dynamics - Commodity Trading Advisors (CTAs) accelerated their selling as the market broke through short-term technical thresholds, with a key mid-term level at 6456 points being closely monitored [3] - The re-emergence of short positions occurred as market momentum reversed, indicating a shift in trader sentiment [4] - Poor performance in key Asian tech stocks, such as SK Hynix and SoftBank, failed to provide a positive external environment for U.S. markets [4] - Market liquidity significantly deteriorated, with the liquidity size of top buy-sell orders in the S&P 500 dropping to approximately $5 million, well below the average of $11 million for the year, making the market more susceptible to large trades [4] - The trading volume of exchange-traded funds (ETFs) surged to 41% of total market volume, indicating that market movements are increasingly driven by macro factors rather than individual stock fundamentals [4]

周四，三大指数高低低走，尾盘跌幅加速，最终大幅收跌。道指早间一度上涨超过700点，最高上涨至 46856.75点，此后逐渐转跌，最低下跌至45728.93点，全天振幅超过1100点。纳指盘中最高上涨至 23147.33点，最低降至22043.20点，振幅亦超1100点。 英伟达(NVDA.US)发布了爆炸性盈利结果、美国公布一份确认经济基础依然强劲的就业报告，尽管所 有迹象都指向美国股市应该是"风险偏好"的一天，但交易大厅的乐观情绪并未持续太久。关于这次反转 背后的原因众说纷纭。一些交易员指出，围绕AI是否产生了足够的收入或利润来证明其巨大支出是合 理的担忧重新浮现。另一些人说，加密货币跌至自四月以来的低点是股市暴跌的部分原因。 Susquehanna International衍生品策略联席主管Chris Murphy表示："随着英伟达财报现在尘埃落定，以及 美联储不太可能在12月降息，投资者开始质疑还有什么可以推动年终行情。据报道，CTA仓位在这里仍 然很脆弱，系统性策略仍处于温和净多头状态，更深的回调将触发量化基金的自动平仓机制，可能会迫 使额外的抛售。" 【美股】截至收盘，道指跌386.51点，跌幅为 ...

基本金属 | 招商评论 | 市场表现：昨日铜价震荡下行。 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 基本面：昨日美联储官员提示通胀风险和私人信贷风险，十二月降息预期到 30%附近，美股中 AI | 相关股票大 | | | | | 跌，市场风险偏好下降。供应端，铜矿偏紧格局不变。昨日智利国家铜业给韩国报价年度电解铜升水 | 330 | 美 | | | 铜 | 金，大幅上涨，说明市场认为明年电铜供需紧张。需求端，国内华东华南平水铜现货升水 40 元和 15 | | | 元。精 | | | 废价差 3000 元。 | | | | | | 交易策略：宏观驱动不明，建议观望。 | | | | | | 风险提示：全球需求不及预期。仅供参考。 市场表现：昨日电解铝主力合约收盘价较前一交易日-0.19%，收于 21530 元/吨，国内 0-3 月差-40 | 元/吨，LME | | | | | 价格 2812.5 美元/吨。 | | | | | 铝 | 基本面：供应方面，电解铝厂维持高负荷生产，运行产能小幅增加。需求方面，周度铝材开工率小幅上升。 | | | | | | 交易策略 ...

Core Insights - The U.S. stock market experienced a dramatic reversal despite strong earnings reports from Nvidia and a favorable non-farm payroll report, leading to a significant sell-off that wiped out over $2 trillion in market value [1][21] - Investors are now in a "profit and loss protection mode," focusing excessively on hedging against market risks rather than capitalizing on positive news [2][4] Group 1: Market Reversal Factors - Nvidia's strong earnings report did not trigger the expected bullish sentiment, as the stock ultimately closed down 3%, indicating that good news not being rewarded can be a bad omen [4] - Concerns over private credit risks were raised by Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook, highlighting potential vulnerabilities in asset valuations that could impact the financial system [6] - The September non-farm payroll report, while stable, did not provide clear guidance for the Fed's December interest rate decision, with the probability of a rate cut only slightly increasing to 35% [8] Group 2: Technical and Market Dynamics - The cryptocurrency market saw Bitcoin drop below the psychological threshold of $90,000, contributing to a broader sell-off in risk assets [9] - Commodity Trading Advisors (CTAs) were already in a heavily long position, and as the market breached short-term technical levels, selling pressure accelerated [9][11] - The return of short positions was noted as market momentum reversed, with significant selling from long-term funds and a shift in hedge fund positions from net buying to net selling [10][23] Group 3: Market Sentiment and Liquidity - The market displayed extreme fragility, with large-cap tech stocks initially rising but ultimately falling in line with the broader market trend [14] - A significant drop in liquidity was observed, with the top buy-sell liquidity for the S&P 500 index falling to around $5 million, well below the average of $11 million for the year [10][13] - The proportion of ETF trading surged to 41%, indicating that macro-driven trading was dominating the market, exacerbating the downward momentum [10][13] Group 4: Upcoming Market Events - The upcoming expiration of a massive $3.1 trillion in options, including $1.7 trillion in SPX index options, is expected to increase market volatility and could exert a gravitational effect on asset prices [21][23]

美联储理事库克表示，鉴于杠杆化公司的"复杂性和相互关联性增加"，官员们应监测私人信贷中意外损 失可能如何蔓延至更广泛的美国金融体系。她补充说，最近汽车行业的私营企业破产也暴露了广泛金融 实体中意外的损失和敞口，包括 银行、对冲基金和专业金融公司。她的讲话呼应了美联储理事巴尔的 担忧，巴尔本周早些时候曾表示，他将私人信贷视为一个潜在风险领域。库克周四还表示，她认为对冲 基金在美国国债市场中不断扩大的足迹和资产估值水平是潜在的脆弱性。库克表示，尽管存在资产价值 高企、私人信贷市场的增长和复杂性，以及对冲基金活动可能导致国债市场混乱的潜在脆弱性，金融体 系仍然保持韧性。她说："这些新兴的脆弱性也发生在非常重大的技术变革的背景下，这最终可能会改 善金融稳定，但也涉及可能需要深思熟虑和审慎应对的过渡期和潜在挑战。"（格隆汇） ...

Market Insights - The Dow Jones Industrial Average increased by 0.47% to 46,924.74 points, while the S&P 500 remained flat at 6,735.35 points, and the Nasdaq Composite decreased by 0.16% to 22,953.67 points [2] - The Nikkei 225 index closed above 49,000 points for the first time, rising by 3.37%, and the TOPIX index increased by 2.46% [3] Commodity and Currency Movements - COMEX gold futures fell by 5.07% to $4,138.5 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures dropped by 6.27% to $48.16 per ounce, with spot gold experiencing its largest single-day decline in over 12 years [3] - Crude oil prices saw an increase, with the main contract for WTI rising by 0.98% to $57.58 per barrel, and Brent crude increasing by 1.07% to $61.66 per barrel [4] - The U.S. dollar index rose by 0.35% to 98.97, while the euro and British pound both depreciated against the dollar [4]

Core Viewpoint - The private credit industry, valued at $2.2 trillion, is experiencing a buildup of risks despite its perceived stability compared to traditional banking financing [1] Group 1: Growth of Evergreen Investment Tools - Evergreen investment tools are gaining popularity, particularly in the debt sector, with Blackstone's private credit fund (BCRED) managing $81 billion as of March 31, up from $45 billion three years ago [2] - Private debt management companies raised $67 billion through evergreen tools last year, accounting for about one-third of their total fundraising from major institutional supporters [2] Group 2: Characteristics of Evergreen Funds - Evergreen funds have three key differences from traditional private credit: they are perpetual, allow investors to withdraw funds as needed (with a quarterly limit of 5% of net asset value), and attract a broader audience, including retail investors [5] - The private credit industry has achieved positive returns annually since 2010, with an average return rate of 9.4% [5] Group 3: Concerns and Risks - There are concerns that during a crisis, redemption requests could impact the entire private credit market, as funds may struggle to sell illiquid assets at favorable prices [6] - The rapid growth of the industry may attract less experienced investors, increasing the risk profile of loans and potentially leading to unexpected losses [8]