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中原地产:CVI结束5连跌企稳70点以上水平 料明年首季继续处于看好区
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2025-12-25 09:41
(原标题:中原地产:CVI结束5连跌企稳70点以上水平 料明年首季继续处于看好区) 6月初CVI进一步跌穿40点,近20周处于看淡区,反映楼市进入调整阶段。同期楼价持续向下调整,并 蒸发撤辣后的所有升幅。9月减息周期启动及10月施政报告后,CVI稳步上升,向上穿40点及50点两个 重要关口,同期楼价反复回稳。 进入2025年,1月份美国总统特朗普上台后,贸易战升温,美联储放缓减息步伐等因素影响,全球经济 及政治环境面临新挑战。1月底,CVI结束之前连续13周于50点好淡分界线上下反复徘徊的局面,2月间 单周急跌至40点左右好淡分界区间下限水平,同期楼价未能进一步向上突破,CCL持续在136点到137点 反复争持。 4月初贸易战升级,CVI再度回落至40点以下看淡区,5周在40点之下反复,楼价亦持续窄幅回落。5月 初拆息急跌,并持续低企,CVI曾连升8周,7月底至9月中更连续8周企稳60点以上,同期楼价靠稳微 升。 9月重启减息后,CVI连升7周,升穿并企稳80点水平,楼价稳步向升。最新CCL报145.01点,较今年5月 H按息再度低于封顶息当周的135.16点低位升7.29%,香港财案放宽印花税后升7.50% ...
中原地产:本周CVI贴近60点连升7周创逾1年新高 短期香港楼价有望止跌回稳
智通财经网· 2025-07-03 13:11
Core Viewpoint - The latest CVI has risen to 59.79 points, marking a significant increase of 2.10 points from last week and a total rise of 23.60 points over the past seven weeks, reaching the highest level since May 2024 when banks tightened mortgage lending [1][3]. Group 1: Market Trends - The CVI has successfully crossed two critical thresholds in the past seven weeks, approaching the upper limit of the 60-point boundary, indicating a potential recovery in the Hong Kong property market [3]. - The increase in new property sales and a significant drop in interbank rates have contributed to a positive shift in bank mortgage attitudes, suggesting a stabilization in property prices in the short term [3]. Group 2: Property Valuation Insights - The latest CCL stands at 136.13 points, with a projected decline of 1.10% in property prices for the first half of 2025 [3]. - Among 143 CCL component estates, 90 (62.9%) have seen a decrease in valuations, with the highest drop rates observed in the Hong Kong Island region [3][4]. - The number of estates with valuation declines exceeding 3% totals 38, accounting for 42.2% of the declining estates [4]. Group 3: Specific Property Performance - In the first half of this year, 10 estates in New Territories West experienced valuation drops over 3%, while Hong Kong Island, New Territories East, and Kowloon had 7, 6, and 4 estates respectively [4]. - The top five estates with the highest valuation drops include specific units in various locations, with declines ranging from 8.09% to 9.31% [4]. - Conversely, 39 CCL component estates have seen valuation increases of over 1%, with notable gains in Kowloon and specific estates in Hong Kong Island [5].