Core Insights - Big tech companies are projected to invest over $500 billion in infrastructure, primarily related to artificial intelligence, in 2026, which could lead to a significant increase in tech capital expenditures as a percentage of GDP, reaching levels seen during previous tech investment cycles [2][3] - The current investment cycle in AI may resemble the Zoom boom rather than the Dotcom Bubble, as the Federal Reserve's accommodative monetary policy could sustain stock market growth even if AI capital expenditures decline [3][6][10] - Concerns about the sustainability of the AI-driven stock market rally have emerged, particularly as tech stocks experienced volatility in late 2025, raising questions about their future performance [4][8] Investment Trends - Historical patterns indicate that tech stocks typically lag the market about a year before the peak of capital expenditure cycles, suggesting potential risks for AI-related stocks [3] - The Federal Reserve's current stance indicates a likelihood of rate cuts, which could support stock valuations by lowering real yields, thereby benefiting tech stocks [6][10] - The tech sector's performance in 2021 was influenced by declining real bond yields, which are crucial for stock valuations, and the sector did not experience a downturn until the Fed's rate hikes began in 2022 [5] Market Dynamics - The tech sector's significant share of the S&P 500 makes the index more susceptible to declines in tech stocks, raising concerns among Wall Street analysts about the sustainability of the AI rally [8] - Lower interest rates and tax cuts from recent legislation could enhance stock market liquidity and economic growth, potentially mitigating the impact of sluggish tech stock performance [9]

The S&P 500 hit a new record high yesterday, up 0.62% at 6,944.82. Futures are marginally down this morning, as might be expected from traders who want to sell up and lock in some of those gains. The STOXX Europe 600 also hit a new high yesterday and was flat in early trading this morning.Much of the bullishness is coming as analysts realize that the massive amounts of capital expenditure (capex) on building out AI data centers isn’t likely to stop anytime soon.The result of all that new spending will be t ...

CITI'S TAKE We preview big three (TSMC, Samsung, and Intel) capex updates ahead of 4Q earnings. Big three are ~59% of our $115Bn (+10% Y/Y) global 2026 WFE spend model, which assumes +30% NAND, +12% DRAM, and +6% F/L. We maintain our view that the equipment group is in Phase 2 upcycle and believe 2026 WFE is tracking more towards our bull case of $126B. We expect TSMC to guide 2026 capex in the range of $46Bn-$48Bn and lift through the year (expectations based on our investor conversations at $50Bn), Intel ...

Core Viewpoint - Antique projects CY26 as a potential turning point for Indian equities, anticipating a recovery in corporate profits and foreign portfolio investor (FPI) flows, with a target of 29,500 for the Nifty index, implying a 13% upside from current levels [1][13] Earnings Outlook - Nifty earnings are expected to grow at a compound annual rate of approximately 16% over FY26–28, significantly higher than the 7% CAGR recorded over FY24–26 [1][13] - The brokerage emphasizes an earnings-led market recovery rather than relying on multiple expansions, with corporate earnings positively correlated with wholesale price inflation and nominal GDP growth, both expected to normalize in FY27 [3][13] - A broad-based recovery in profits is anticipated, particularly in sectors such as electronics manufacturing services, telecom, industrials, and retail, while oil and gas, IT services, power utilities, FMCG, and automobiles are expected to lag [3][13] Capital Expenditure and Financials - The capital expenditure theme is expected to rebound after two years of slowdown, with favorable conditions across global monetary policies and domestic support [7][13] - Financials are a core focus, with expectations for banks to enter an earnings upcycle in CY26, supported by a strong domestic macro backdrop and the nearing end of the rate-cut cycle [8][13] - Public sector banks are favored due to comparable growth metrics to private lenders while trading at a 45% discount [8][13] Consumption Sector and Mid/Small-Cap Stocks - The broader consumption sector is viewed with caution due to high valuations and competitive pressures, although select discretionary segments like alcoholic beverages and hotels are seen positively [9][13] - Mid- and small-cap stocks are expected to show earnings growth that outpaces the Nifty over the next two to three years, driven by domestic cyclicals and increased capex activity [10][13] Stock Picks and Market Flows - Top large-cap stock picks include ICICI Bank, State Bank of India, and Hindustan Aeronautics, while mid-cap and small-cap preferences include Siemens Energy India and Chalet Hotels, respectively [11][13] - After a significant outflow of $17.5 billion from Indian equities in CY25, Antique anticipates stabilization and potential revival of FPI flows in CY26, supported by low FPI ownership and reasonable valuations [11][13] - Despite trading at a premium to historical averages, valuations are expected to be sustained due to lower bond yields and sectoral divergence, with many Nifty 500 stocks having corrected over 20% from their highs [12][13]

FICC Research Macro PMG 22 December 2025 The Macro Wrap 2025: The year of capex Markets watch to see if this year's capex surge will amount to growth in 2026. The Macro Wrap is your weekly, need-to-know guide to our key macro views, implications for markets and trending research. Note: This will be our last Macro Wrap for the year. If you have some reading time over the holiday period, explore our Macro, Equity and Credit 2026 outlook pages to read about what might lie ahead. And check out the latest Barcla ...

HOUSTON, Dec. 22, 2025 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. (NYSE: PARR) (“Par Pacific”) today announced its 2026 capital expenditure and turnaround outlay guidance with a range of $190 million to $220 million. 2026 Capital Expenditure and Turnaround Outlay Guidance$ in millions Turnarounds 1$50 – 60Maintenance & Catalyst 2105 – 115Growth 335 – 45Total Capital Expenditure and Turnaround Outlay$190 – 220 Includes approximately $10 million in Washington refinery planned maintenance.Includes ap ...

Capital expenditure has soared as Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, Microsoft and, more recently, Oracle have poured money into AI data centres. Will the bet pay off? https://t.co/nqX9uB0Q9W ...

Matt, what stood out for you. Why the disappointment from Oracle. Yeah, I think there's a couple of things going on here.One is that they massively ramped their capital expenditure, its outlook for the year. So now looking for $50 billion to spend, that's 5 billion higher than the earlier estimate. So, you know, 5 billion higher than the earlier.So like kind of a more than 40% increase. And I think, you know, in a market where everybody was already kind of getting a bit concerned about how much some of thes ...

Core Insights - Chevron Corporation is projected to achieve a free cash flow expansion of approximately $12.5 billion by 2026, driven by major upstream asset ramp-ups and a streamlined organizational model [1][9] - The company anticipates significant contributions from the Tengiz Future Growth Project, Gulf of America developments, and the integration of Hess [1][9] Group 1: Financial Performance and Projections - Chevron's strong cash flow trajectory is supported by disciplined spending, with annual capital expenditures capped at $18-21 billion through 2030, ensuring cash flow resilience even if Brent oil prices fall below $50 per barrel [4][9] - A $1 change in Brent oil price affects Chevron's after-tax earnings by approximately $550 million, indicating well-managed risk exposure [4] Group 2: Asset Management and Operational Efficiency - The company maintains a robust base of high-margin assets, with cornerstone operations like Gorgon and Wheatstone providing stable free cash flow from Australia LNG [2] - Chevron aims for structural cost reductions of $3-$4 billion by 2026, enhancing cash margins across all operations [2] Group 3: Competitive Positioning - Compared to peers like ExxonMobil and BP, Chevron's mix of short-cycle shale, LNG optionality, and global deepwater leverage positions it favorably for mid-cycle resilience [3] - Chevron's integrated cost structure and capital discipline provide a competitive advantage under various price scenarios [3] Group 4: Market Performance - Chevron shares have increased by 4.6% over the past six months, lagging behind BP's 16.4% rise and ExxonMobil's 9.3% increase [7] - The stock is trading at a premium compared to the industry average in terms of forward price-to-earnings ratio and is above its five-year median of 11.86 [8]

Core Insights - Nebius Group N.V. (NBIS) has significantly increased its capital expenditure (capex) plan for 2025 from $2 billion to $5 billion to meet the rising demand for AI infrastructure [1][10] - The company aims to exit 2025 with positive adjusted EBITDA at the group level, despite a projected adjusted EBITDA loss of $5.2 million for Q3, which is an improvement from a $45.9 million loss in the same quarter last year [3][10] - Financing for this aggressive expansion will be sourced through corporate debt, asset-backed financing, and equity, with plans to raise up to 25 million Class A shares [4][10] Capex Breakdown - The strategic capex allocation includes approximately 1% for securing land and power, 18-20% for building data centers, and around 80% for GPU deployment [2] - The accelerated investment is crucial for achieving ambitious annual recurring revenue (ARR) targets for 2025 and 2026, contingent on effective execution and sustained AI demand [5] Competitive Landscape - CoreWeave, a competitor, has reduced its 2025 capex guidance from $20-23 billion to $12-14 billion, while Microsoft is expected to increase its capex growth rate in fiscal 2026 compared to fiscal 2025 [6][7][8] - Microsoft allocated $34.9 billion in capex in Q1 of fiscal 2026, with significant investments in GPUs and CPUs to support its Azure platform [8] Market Performance - Nebius shares have declined by 6% over the past month, contrasting with a minor decline of 0.2% in the Internet – Software and Services industry [11] - The price/book ratio for NBIS shares stands at 5.38X, exceeding the industry average of 3.96X [13]