After Centrus Energy ( LEU ) published its Q3 results, I re-analyzed it with the same doubt that I see in part of the market and whether it should be valued as a traditional industrial company orI’m an economist and independent investor from Argentina. I focus on connecting macroeconomic dynamics with company-level valuation to identify long-term opportunities. Living in Argentina gives me a firsthand view of one of the most complex and dynamic markets, which allows me to cover local assets in depth while a ...

Core Insights - The focus is on identifying value companies primarily in the commodities sector, particularly those with sustained free cash flows and low leverage [1] - There is an emphasis on companies in emerging markets that exhibit high margins and present good medium to long-term investment opportunities [1] - The analysis prioritizes firms with a strong pro-shareholder attitude, including consistent buyback programs and dividend distributions [1] Company Characteristics - Target companies are those experiencing some level of distress but possess high recovery potential [1] - Preference is given to sectors that are often overlooked by the market, such as oil & gas, metals, and mining [1] - Companies operating outside the United States are particularly of interest for uncovering value [1] Investment Philosophy - The investment strategy is centered around companies with solid financial fundamentals, including sustainable debt levels over time [1] - The analyst has a background in financial education, specializing in company valuation, which informs the investment approach [1] - The goal is to share insights and information with the investment community to enhance individual decision-making [1]

Core Insights - Netflix, Inc. is a well-recognized company with a long-standing presence in households [1] - Various methods exist for sell-side analysts to determine a company's fair value, including DCF, multiples approach, and reverse valuation [1] - The Free Cash Flow to Equity (FCFE) model is utilized to assess what truly belongs to shareholders, focusing on earnings, amortization, and investments [1] Valuation Methods - The DCF method requires precise assumptions, which can lead to biases such as overconfidence and hindsight [1] - The multiples approach compares a company with its peers but assumes those peers are fairly priced, which is often not the case [1] - Reverse valuation starts from the market price and discount rate, revealing the free cash flow assumptions already incorporated into the price [1] FCFE Model - The FCFE model is defined as Earnings + Amortization – CAPEX – average acquisition cost = FCFE, ignoring working capital and debt changes [1] - Forecasts utilize the H-model, which features a 10-year two-stage growth fade with terminal growth equal to the risk-free rate [1] - All cash flows are discounted by the cost of equity, calculated as RFR × beta + 5% ERP, providing a clear picture of the business's true worth [1]

Core Insights - A company experiencing a 90% drawdown over five years may not necessarily be due to management failures, indicating that external factors could be at play [1] - Various methods exist for sell-side analysts to determine a company's "fair" value, with some being more reliable than others [1] Valuation Methods - The DCF (Discounted Cash Flow) method requires precise assumptions, which can lead to biases such as overconfidence and anchoring [1] - The multiples approach, while seemingly simpler, relies on the assumption that peer companies are fairly priced, which is often not the case historically [1] - Reverse valuation starts from the market price and discount rate, revealing the free cash flow assumptions embedded in the price, providing a more straightforward assessment of market beliefs [1] Free Cash Flow Analysis - A Free Cash Flow to Equity (FCFE) model is utilized to determine what belongs to shareholders, calculated as Earnings + Amortization - CAPEX - average acquisition cost = FCFE [1] - The analysis disregards working capital and debt changes, focusing on core business metrics [1] - Key components for valuation include earnings, amortization, and investments [1] Forecasting Approach - The H-model is applied for forecasts, featuring a 10-year two-stage growth fade with terminal growth aligned to the risk-free rate, represented by the 10-year government bond yield [1] - All cash flows are discounted using the cost of equity, calculated as RFR × beta + 5% ERP, resulting in a clear picture of the business's true worth [1]

Nvidia is set to be the first company ever to be valued at $5 trillion. A new revenue forecast has Wall Street recalibrating expectations. ...

Group 1: Wealthsimple - Wealthsimple has successfully closed a C$750 million (approximately $536 million USD) equity funding round, achieving a post-money valuation of C$10 billion (approximately $7.15 billion USD) [2][8] - The funding round was co-led by GIC and Dragoneer, with participation from notable investors such as CPP Investments, IGM Financial, Power Corporation of Canada, ICONIQ, Greylock, and Meritech [2][8] - The capital raised is intended to support Wealthsimple's expansion, product development, and team growth [2] Group 2: Keurig Dr Pepper - Keurig Dr Pepper has raised $7 billion to finance its $18 billion acquisition of JDE Peet's, with funding from private equity firms Apollo Global Management and KKR [3][8] - The investment includes a $4 billion commitment for a new K-Cup pod and single-serve manufacturing joint venture, and a $3 billion convertible preferred stock investment in Keurig Dr Pepper [5][8] - Following the funding announcement, Keurig Dr Pepper raised its annual sales forecast, expecting full-year net sales to grow in a high-single-digit range, an upgrade from the previous mid-single-digit projection [4][8] - The company plans to split into two independent publicly traded entities, a "Beverage Co." and a "Global Coffee Co.," post-acquisition to optimize capital structures and enhance long-term value [5][8]

Core Insights - Apple is approaching a $4 trillion valuation, driven by renewed investor confidence due to strong demand for the iPhone 17 [2] - Year-to-date, Apple's shares have increased by 8%, while the S&P 500 has risen by 14.9% and the broader market by 19.4% [2]

Group 1 - MSCI Inc.'s share price has returned to levels seen in 2021, with a dividend yield of 1.3%, indicating limited growth potential as a compounder [1] Group 2 - Various methods exist for sell-side analysts to determine a company's "fair" value, including DCF, multiples approach, and reverse valuation, each with its own strengths and weaknesses [2] - The Free Cash Flow to Equity (FCFE) model is utilized to assess what truly belongs to shareholders, focusing on earnings, amortization, and investments while ignoring working capital and debt changes [2] - Forecasts employ the H-model for a 10-year two-stage growth fade, with terminal growth aligned to the risk-free rate, and all cash flows discounted by the cost of equity [2]

TikTok owner ByteDance has initiated a new round of employee share buy-backs that give the company a higher valuation, even as it works on a deal to divest the video app's US operations amid geopolitical uncertainty. The latest repurchase programme, initially open to employees based in the United States last month and the rest of the world last week, priced the vested restricted stock units (RSUs) at US$200.41 per share, up 5.5 per cent from US$189.90 during the round held in April, according to two emplo ...

Core Insights - The article provides a comprehensive market analysis of Oracle Corporation, highlighting its recent performance and strategic initiatives in the technology sector [1] Group 1: Company Performance - Oracle Corporation has reported a significant increase in revenue, with a year-over-year growth of 18%, reaching $12.4 billion in the last quarter [1] - The company's cloud services segment has been a major driver of growth, contributing approximately 30% to total revenue [1] - Operating income for Oracle has also seen a positive trend, increasing by 15% compared to the previous year, indicating improved operational efficiency [1] Group 2: Strategic Initiatives - Oracle is focusing on expanding its cloud infrastructure, with plans to invest $3 billion in data centers over the next two years [1] - The company has entered into strategic partnerships with various tech firms to enhance its product offerings and market reach [1] - Oracle's commitment to artificial intelligence and machine learning technologies is expected to bolster its competitive position in the market [1] Group 3: Market Position - Oracle holds a strong position in the enterprise software market, ranking among the top three providers globally [1] - The company is actively competing with other major players like Microsoft and Amazon in the cloud services space [1] - Recent acquisitions have strengthened Oracle's capabilities in analytics and database management, further solidifying its market presence [1]