Core Insights - Keppel Corporation has transformed from a conglomerate heavily reliant on the offshore and marine (O&M) business to a global asset manager, with only 7.7% of its revenue coming from O&M in the first half of 2025 [2][4] - The company's share price has appreciated significantly, closing at $10.20 on 13 November 2025, representing a 136% increase from $4.32 in 2015, equating to a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 9.0% [4][12] - Total returns for an investor who bought $10,000 worth of Keppel shares in 2015 would amount to around $35,242, reflecting a total return of approximately 252% and a CAGR of 13.4% [12] Financial Performance - In 2015, Keppel generated $5.4 billion in revenue and $757 million in net profit, while in the first half of 2025, revenue dropped to $3.1 billion with a net profit of $373 million due to the divestment of its largest business [14][15] - The company has consistently paid dividends, totaling $2.73 per share over the past decade, with a notable increase in dividends since the pandemic lows in 2020 [5][6] Shareholder Returns - Shareholders received additional returns through distributions of units in Keppel REIT and shares in Sembcorp Marine, which was restructured into Seatrium [9][10] - The total value of these distributions, along with capital gains and dividends, significantly contributed to the overall returns for investors [11][12] Strategic Transformation - Keppel's restructuring began in early 2021, focusing on exiting the offshore rig building business and merging its O&M operations with Sembcorp Marine [13] - The company aims to grow its assets under management (AUM) to $200 billion by 2030, with recent acquisitions and divestitures supporting this goal [14][16] Investment Lessons - The journey of Keppel over the past decade highlights the importance of a long-term investment perspective, the potential rewards of patience with dividends, and the benefits of strategic restructuring [17]

Core Insights - Pinterest Inc. reported mixed third-quarter results, with revenue of $1.0 billion, a 16.8% year-over-year increase, but earnings fell short of consensus estimates, indicating challenges in the advertising landscape [1] - Adjusted EBITDA reached $306 million with a 29.2% margin, surpassing consensus by 4% and representing a 170-basis-point margin expansion [2] Revenue Outlook - For the fourth quarter, Pinterest projects revenue growth of 13.8% to 15.9% year-over-year, estimating revenue between $1.31 billion and $1.34 billion, with the midpoint trailing Street expectations by approximately 100 basis points [3] - The company anticipates Adjusted EBITDA to range between $533 million and $558 million, compared to a prior estimate of $546 million [3] Analyst Revisions - Following the cautious revenue outlook, Wedbush Securities analysts lowered their 12-month price forecast on Pinterest to $34 from $44 while maintaining an Outperform rating, citing moderating ad spend among large U.S. retailers affected by tariff pressures [4] - Wedbush trimmed its growth forecasts, projecting a three-year revenue Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 14.5%, down from 15.1%, but noted that Pinterest remains positioned to meet its intermediate-term targets [6] Long-Term Concerns - Rosenblatt analyst Barton Crockett expressed concerns about long-term structural risks due to the rapid advancement of AI technologies, which could overlap with Pinterest's core use case, leading to potential existential challenges [9] - The firm downgraded Pinterest to Neutral and cut its price forecast by $19 to $30, based on a 12x 2026E EV/EBITDA multiple [9] Market Dynamics - Analysts highlighted rising risks from AI-driven competitors, which may offset easing year-over-year comparisons in consumer packaged goods, with concerns that sustaining growth could become difficult if AI-powered chatbots evolve into alternative platforms for discovery and engagement [10] - Pinterest's core U.S. and Canada market, accounting for about 75% of sales, is pressured by new tariffs and weaker retail ad spending, although stronger gains in Europe and other regions provide some offset [11]

Core Viewpoint - UBS analyst Jay Sole believes Deckers Outdoor (DECK.US) is "significantly undervalued," with a potential stock price increase of approximately 53% [1] - UBS maintains a "Buy" rating on the stock, highlighting that the performance of Hoka and UGG brands is expected to exceed expectations, allowing investors to recognize Deckers Outdoor's potential for high single-digit to low double-digit compound annual growth rate (CAGR) in sales and earnings per share (EPS) growth [1] Market Expectations - The market perceives Deckers Outdoor's guidance for Q2 FY2026 as conservative, with HOKA sales growth projected at 11%, which is 200 basis points below market expectations [2] - UBS argues that the company's previous higher growth statements were based on "excluding tariff impacts" rather than formal guidance, suggesting an upward revision in growth expectations when adjusted for tariffs [2] - Historically, Deckers Outdoor's final annual EPS has averaged about 17% higher than its Q2 guidance midpoint over the past four years, indicating potential for exceeding current forecasts [2] Short-term Outlook - For Q2 FY2026, Deckers Outdoor reported a revenue increase of 9.1% to $1.4931 billion, with EPS of $1.82, surpassing market expectations by $0.21 [3] - The gross margin was 56.2%, exceeding market expectations by approximately 200 basis points, while operating margin stood at 22.8% [3] - HOKA brand sales grew by 11.1%, and UGG brand sales increased by 10.1% [3] - The company accelerated its share repurchase program to $282 million in Q2, up from $183 million in Q1, indicating potential for EPS upside [3] Mid-term Growth Drivers - UBS anticipates HOKA's direct-to-consumer (DTC) sales will return to low double-digit growth by FY2027, driven by expansion in training shoes, lifestyle products, and international markets, particularly in the Asia-Pacific region [4] - The increase in high-margin DTC business and scale effects for HOKA are expected to push EBITDA margins close to 23% by FY2030, although some gains may be offset by tariff pressures [4] - The discounted cash flow (DCF) model suggests that the market currently implies a low single-digit CAGR for EPS over the next five years, while UBS estimates it to be around 9%, indicating valuation upside potential [4] Various Scenarios and Target Prices - Base case scenario: Target price of $157, with a five-year EPS CAGR of approximately 9%, recovery in HOKA's U.S. DTC and lifestyle business, and gradual tariff reductions [5] - Optimistic scenario: Target price of $239, assuming faster expansion of HOKA DTC, UGG evolving into a year-round brand, and an operating margin of about 25.5% by FY2030 [6] - Pessimistic scenario: Target price of $48, considering weak U.S. consumer spending, slower market share growth for HOKA, increased promotional activity, and a contraction in operating margins [6]

Core Insights - The stock market has shown strong returns over the past five years, but Tilray Brands has struggled to keep pace, indicating a significant underperformance in the cannabis industry [1][2]. Company Performance - Tilray has faced numerous challenges, including intense competition, legal barriers to loans, and stringent regulatory requirements, which have hindered its financial performance [2]. - The company has experienced a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of -21.32% over the past five years, meaning an investment of $500 would now be worth $150.76, in stark contrast to an S&P 500 ETF investment that would be worth $1,031.74 due to a positive CAGR of 15.59% [3]. Future Outlook - There is some market optimism regarding potential changes in the legal landscape of the U.S. cannabis industry, and Tilray reported a rare net income in its latest quarterly update [4]. - Despite these developments, the company's historical performance and ongoing challenges suggest that the stock remains a high-risk investment, with concerns that future investments could yield even lower returns [5].

Core Insights - Bitcoin is currently priced at approximately $110,000, but it is still considered the best cryptocurrency to invest in with $100 due to its potential for significant future gains [2][3] Group 1: Bitcoin's Future Potential - There is a growing consensus that Bitcoin could increase in value tenfold within the next few years, with projections suggesting it could reach $1 million within five years and even $3.8 million by 2030 [3][4] - Achieving a price of $1 million from $110,000 implies a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 56%, which is a challenging target even for top tech growth stocks [4] Group 2: Historical Performance - Bitcoin has been the top-performing asset globally in eight of the past ten years, with a remarkable gain of 157% in 2023, significantly outperforming the S&P 500, which returned only 26% [5][8] - Despite its strong performance, Bitcoin has experienced significant downturns, losing 64% in 2022 and 74% in 2018, indicating the importance of holding through volatility [6][7] Group 3: Investment Strategy - Investors considering Bitcoin should be prepared to hold for at least four years, as the asset has historically shown periods of poor performance interspersed with substantial gains [6][7] - After a downturn in 2022, Bitcoin rebounded with gains of 157% in 2023 and 125% in 2024, demonstrating its potential for recovery and growth [7]

Core Viewpoint - Oracle's stock experienced a nearly 7% decline as the company attempted to reassure investors regarding the long-term profitability of its AI infrastructure business [1] Financial Performance and Projections - Oracle projected that the gross profit margin for its AI infrastructure business would reach 30% to 40% by 2030, despite currently renting AI chips at a lower gross profit margin of 16% [2] - The company raised its revenue target for 2030 to $166 billion from a previous target of $144 billion, indicating a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 75% over the next five years [3] Analyst Concerns - Jefferies analyst Brent Thill expressed concerns about Oracle's lack of disclosure regarding capital expenditure forecasts, which raises questions about the company's ability to meet anticipated AI demand [4] - JPMorgan analyst Mark Murphy noted that while Oracle's revenue target for 2030 is impressive, it suggests a deceleration in revenue growth from new or expanded contracts towards the end of the decade, with net new revenue growth expected to decline by 27% in 2030 [5][6] Market Position - Despite the recent stock price decline, Oracle's shares have increased nearly 75% for the year, positioning the company as a significant player in the AI cloud space, competing with major tech firms like Alphabet, Amazon, and Microsoft [6]

Core Insights - Oracle Cloud Infrastructure is projected to reach $166 billion in revenue by fiscal 2030, a significant increase from $10 billion in fiscal 2025, indicating a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 75% over five years [1] - Oracle experienced a 50% year-over-year revenue growth in 2025, and its stock price has risen 88% year to date and 79% over the past 12 months [1] Financial Analyst Meeting - The revenue outlook was shared during a financial analyst meeting, which occurred shortly after Oracle announced a collaboration with Nvidia on the OCI Zettascale 10 computing cluster, aimed at enhancing AI inferencing capabilities [2] Dealmaking Activities - Oracle has been actively pursuing acquisitions, including a reported plan to spend over $40 billion on Nvidia chips, which will be part of a $300 billion deal with OpenAI for the Stargate Project [3] - Additionally, Oracle announced a deal with AMD for 50,000 GPUs starting in the second half of 2026 [3] Margin Concerns - Despite the optimistic revenue projections, there are reports indicating that Oracle is facing "razor-thin" margins in its cloud business [4]

Company Overview - JPMorgan Chase & Co. is a leading global financial services firm offering a wide range of services including investment banking, commercial banking, and asset management [1] - The company competes with major financial institutions such as Wells Fargo, Goldman Sachs, and BlackRock [1] Stock Performance and Analyst Ratings - Barclays has maintained an "Overweight" rating for JPMorgan, raising its price target from $330 to $342, indicating optimism about the company's future performance [2][6] - As of the latest report, JPMorgan's stock price is $302.08, reflecting a decrease of approximately 1.91% or $5.89 [5] - The stock has traded between $294.21 and $306.83 today, with a market capitalization of approximately $830.64 billion [5] Earnings and Market Outlook - JPMorgan has reported mixed yet promising results during the earnings season, highlighting a positive outlook for the financial sector driven by strong market activity in investment banking and favorable asset-based fees [3][6] - Healthy net interest income (NII) trajectories further support this positive sentiment [3] Industry Growth Projections - The global financial services industry is projected to grow from approximately $36 trillion in 2025 to $47.6 trillion by 2029, representing a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of over 7% [4][6] - This growth indicates a robust future for companies like JPMorgan [4][6]

Core Viewpoint - Merck faces significant challenges in achieving a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 38% needed to turn $10,000 into $50,000 in five years, primarily due to impending patent cliffs and declining sales in key products [1][6]. Group 1: Growth Drivers - Merck's primary growth drivers are the cancer drug Keytruda and the HPV vaccine franchise, Gardasil and Gardasil 9, both of which are currently facing challenges [2]. - Keytruda is expected to encounter a patent cliff by 2028, leading to potential biosimilar competition that could significantly impact its sales [2]. - Sales of Gardasil and Gardasil 9 have declined this year, largely attributed to reduced demand in China [2]. Group 2: Financial Performance - In the second quarter, Merck's revenue decreased by 2% year over year to $15.8 billion, reflecting the challenges faced by the company [3]. - The stock performance has lagged behind the market this year due to these headwinds [3]. Group 3: Strategic Developments - Merck has received approval for a subcutaneous version of Keytruda, which will benefit from patent protection beyond 2028 and is expected to be a more efficient option for patients and physicians [4][5]. - The company is addressing the issues with Gardasil and Gardasil 9 and anticipates a rebound in vaccine sales over the next few years [5]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Despite new approvals, including Winrevair for treating pulmonary arterial hypertension, the challenges facing Merck are likely to hinder its ability to outperform the market through 2030 [6]. - For long-term, dividend-seeking investors, Merck remains an attractive option, but it is not suitable for those seeking a CAGR of 38% by 2030 [6].

Core Insights - Govini, a defense tech software startup, has surpassed $100 million in annual recurring revenue and is experiencing over 100% growth in a three-year compound annual growth rate (CAGR) [1] - The company has received a $150 million growth investment from Bain Capital to expand its team and product offerings in response to increasing security demands [2] - Govini is part of a growing group of defense tech startups that are competing against established giants like Boeing, Lockheed Martin, and Northrop Grumman [3] Company Summary - Govini is based in Arlington, Virginia, and is focused on the defense technology sector [2] - The CEO, Tara Murphy Dougherty, expressed optimism about the company's growth potential in a large market [1] - The company plans to utilize the new investment to enhance its capabilities and meet rising national security needs [2] Industry Context - There is a trend of increased venture capital investment in defense tech startups due to heightened national security concerns and the need to modernize military capabilities [2] - The competitive landscape includes both innovative startups like Govini and established defense contractors that have historically relied on Pentagon contracts [3]