The Q4 CFO survey, it's back and we're asking the biggest corporate financial decision makers about their business, the economy, and how they're using artificial intelligence. Every quarter, we ask about risk. CFOs say currently the biggest risk to their business, it's consumer demand.41% with that answer tied for second would be Fed policy and overregulation, both at right around 14%. Still, CFOs seem confident on the strength of the economy with more than half saying the US will not experience a recession ...

Core Insights - Buckle, Inc. reported third-quarter 2025 results with strong consumer demand but a slight revenue miss [2][3] - Earnings per share were 96 cents, aligning with analyst consensus estimates [2] Financial Performance - Quarterly sales reached $320.837 million, reflecting a 9.3% year-over-year increase, but slightly missing the expected $320.840 million [3] - Comparable store net sales increased by 8.3% year over year [3] - Online sales rose by 13.6% to $53.0 million, compared to $46.6 million in the previous year [3] - Gross profit for the quarter was $153.906 million, up from $140.071 million a year ago [3] Operational Metrics - Income from operations was $60.914 million, compared to $54.483 million in the prior year [4] - Operating expenses totaled $92.992 million, an increase from $85.588 million a year ago [4] - Cash and equivalents at the end of the quarter were $316.152 million, up from $301.958 million a year ago [4] - Inventory at the end of the quarter was $165.779 million, higher than $149.351 million a year ago [4] Stock Performance - BKE stock has gained over 15% in the past year [5] - As of the latest trading session, BKE shares were down 3.61% to $53.04 [5]

Core Insights - Colgate-Palmolive Company is a leading player in oral care, personal care, home cleaning, and pet nutrition, with a market cap of approximately $61.7 billion [1] Stock Performance - The company's shares have underperformed the broader market, declining 18.2% over the past year and 15.8% year-to-date, while the S&P 500 Index has increased by 18.5% and 15.1% respectively [2] - Colgate's stock has also lagged behind the Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR Fund, which saw a 5.5% dip over the past 52 weeks and a 3.3% decline year-to-date [3] Operational Challenges - The company is facing a challenging operating environment characterized by weak consumer demand, particularly in urban areas where households are financially strained [4] - Colgate is also dealing with inflation in raw materials and packaging, as well as adverse currency and tariff effects that impact flexibility and margins [5] Financial Outlook - For fiscal year 2025, analysts project a 1.7% year-over-year increase in EPS to $3.66, with a history of surpassing earnings estimates in the past four quarters [6] - The stock currently holds a consensus "Moderate Buy" rating, with 10 "Strong Buys," 2 "Moderate Buys," 8 "Holds," and 2 "Strong Sells" among 22 analysts [6] Price Target Insights - JPMorgan recently lowered its price target for Colgate to $88 from $95, maintaining an "Overweight" rating due to weaker category performance and soft organic sales [7] - The mean price target of $88.09 suggests a potential upside of 15.1%, while the highest price target of $100 indicates a possible upside of 30.6% from the current price [7]

Core Insights - Brilliant Earth Group, Inc. reported a year-over-year net sales growth of 10.4%, reaching $110.3 million in Q3 2025, exceeding the company's guidance [6][5] - The company achieved a significant 45% year-over-year growth in bookings for fine jewelry and a return to growth in engagement ring bookings [4][6] - Gross margin for the quarter was 57.6%, demonstrating resilience despite high metal prices and a challenging tariff environment [4][6] Financial Performance - Total orders increased by 16.8% year-over-year, totaling 49,910 in Q3 2025 compared to 42,744 in Q3 2024 [5] - Average order value (AOV) decreased by 5.5% to $2,209 from $2,337 year-over-year [5] - Adjusted net income for Q3 2025 was $1.7 million, a 13.3% increase from $1.5 million in Q3 2024 [6][30] Year-to-Date Performance - Year-to-date net sales for 2025 reached $313.1 million, a 3.4% increase from $302.6 million in 2024 [8] - The company reported a net loss of $5.1 million for the nine months ended September 30, 2025, compared to a net income of $1.4 million in the same period of 2024 [8][29] - Adjusted EBITDA for the nine months was $7.8 million, down 44.9% from $14.2 million in 2024 [8][30] Market Position and Outlook - The company continues to gain market share, positioning itself as a premier jewelry brand for modern consumers [4] - The outlook for full-year net sales growth is projected at 3% to 4.5% year-over-year [10] - The company celebrated its 20th anniversary with the launch of exclusive collections, enhancing its brand presence [6]

Financial Performance - Coca-Cola reported better-than-expected earnings on both the top and bottom line [1] - Adjusted earnings came in better than expected, driving positive stock movement [2] - The company reiterated guidance, expecting organic revenue growth and adjusted earnings growth for the year [4] Volume and Pricing - Global unit volume grew about 1% in the third quarter, less than the 4% growth in Q3 2022 [6] - Sales increase was largely driven by price increases, in line with inflation [8] - Developing markets faced headwinds in Latin America and parts of Asia, dampening volume demand [10] Consumer Trends and Preferences - Growth observed in Coca-Cola Zero Sugar as consumers seek alternate options, with 14% growth this past quarter [4][7] - Water and sports drinks stood out in North America and other regions [4] - Higher-income consumers are more resilient and inelastic, seeking new brand and beverage choices [12] - The company is focused on meeting the needs of lower-income consumers through revenue growth management strategies, including different pack options and price points [13][14] Strategic Initiatives - Reintroducing real cane sugar in select US markets [17] - Investing in value-added dairy, including building a facility to meet demand, especially in 2026 [23][24] - Offering a range of options to consumers to manage their sugar intake [21]

Snapple bringing back its iconic glass bottles and pop caps after an 8-year hiatus. Remember these guys. There's a catch.This is only going to happen and be in stores in New York City from October to December. So, come to New York. The company announcing the return of its top five flavors following what they said was an overwhelming demand.Snapple officially phased out the glass for plastic bottles in 2021, citing environmental reasons. ...

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - **Industry**: China/Hong Kong Consumer - **Event**: National Day Holiday 2025 Key Points General Demand Trends - Holiday retail sales growth was +2.7% year-over-year (yoy) during the Golden Week (Oct 1-7), which is a deceleration compared to the 3.4% yoy growth in August [2][12] - Per capita travel spending remained largely flat yoy despite an additional day of holiday, indicating a lack of imminent overall demand recovery [1][12] Domestic Travel Insights - The number of domestic travelers increased by +16.1% yoy during Golden Week, with tourism revenue up +15.4% yoy, translating to Rmb101 billion daily [3][14] - Daily spending per traveler was Rmb911, which is a slight decline of -0.6% yoy, but the gap compared to 2019 has narrowed [3][14] Hotel Industry Performance - Revenue per available room (RevPAR) in the hotel industry showed low-single-digit positive growth yoy, driven by an increase in average daily rate (ADR) [4][12] Outbound Travel - Daily average visitors for both outbound and inbound travel grew by +11.5% yoy [4][12] Hainan Duty-Free Market - Duty-free sales in Hainan reached Rmb944 million during the holiday, with a daily average of Rmb118 million, marking a +5% yoy increase [6][12] - Daily per capita spending was Rmb7.7K, up +8% yoy, although this level is still 44% lower than the peak in 2021 [6][12] Box Office Revenue - Box office revenue was reported at Rmb1.8 billion, with a daily revenue decline of -25% yoy [7][12] Consumption Shifts - Consumption patterns are shifting towards travel, impacting traditional gathering and gifting demand, particularly affecting liquor and liquid milk sales [11][12] Stock Implications - The company remains selective on consumer stocks due to mixed underlying momentum across categories, with preferences for growth stocks like Pop Mart and Giant Biogene, turnaround stocks like Shenzhou and Yili, and balanced return/value stocks like YUMC and ANTA [12][12] Additional Insights - The overall demand recovery appears to be sluggish, with travel intentions not translating into proportional spending, indicating potential risks for consumer stocks [1][12] - The performance of retail and restaurant sectors during the holiday was uneven, with tourist destination stores benefiting while residential and office area stores suffered [11][12]

Consumer Spending Trends - PJC forecast indicates a potential pullback in consumer spending, marking the steepest decline since the start of the virus pandemic [1] - The survey, conducted in June and July, reflects consumer sentiment at that time, making it potentially too early to definitively predict holiday spending [2] - Retailers face challenges due to tariffs, potentially leading to reduced discounts, which could impact consumer demand [3] - Consumers are willing to spend on important days, events, and loved ones, suggesting Christmas spending may not see a major drop [7] Generational Spending Patterns - Gen Z is projected to decrease spending the most, with a planned cutback of 23%, driving an overall 5% decline [4] - Unlike boomers, Gen X, and millennials, who plan to maintain their spending, Gen Z's pullback is significant [4] - Last year, Gen Z planned to spend 37% more on gifts, travel, and entertainment, highlighting a significant shift this year [5] Retail Impact - Retailers catering to younger shoppers, particularly Gen Z, will need to work harder to attract them [5] - The actual holiday season print may not be as negative as initially expected, based on previous experiences [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a Buy rating on AMZN, SHOP, and CHWY, indicating confidence in their resilience compared to other eCommerce stocks [24][7]. Core Insights - The digital consumer is perceived as resilient but is showing signs of slowing in Q1 operating trends, with expectations for the upcoming earnings season to reflect this dynamic [2][19]. - There is a downward risk to operating estimates in Q2 and beyond due to higher global tariffs, which could negatively impact consumer demand and gross margins for exposed platforms [2][21]. - The report revises the 2025 US eCommerce growth forecast down to +6% YoY from +7.5%, reflecting lower GDP growth expectations [2][24]. Summary by Sections Ratings, Stock Price Performance and Street Estimate Revisions - AMZN's 12-month price target is revised to $255 from $220, with a current price of $173, indicating a 27% upside [7]. - SHOP's price target is adjusted to $150 from $130, with a current price of $84, showing a 55% upside [7]. - CHWY maintains a price target of $45, with a current price of $35, reflecting a 28% upside [7]. Where is the Digital Consumer Today? - The report suggests that the digital consumer remains resilient, but there is a notable slowdown in travel trends and discretionary eCommerce goods [19][20]. - Investor fears have been more anticipatory, reacting to data points from other industries and soft consumer confidence [19][20]. Downside Analysis: What Could Happen to eCommerce Estimates? - The report highlights that eCommerce could decelerate by as much as -10 percentage points in a recession scenario, starting from a revised baseline of +6% YoY growth in 2025 [47][46]. - The analysis provides downside scenario analyses to help investors understand potential risks to estimates in more negative scenarios [46][22]. Refreshing the US eCommerce Industry Model - The report updates the US eCommerce model, reducing growth forecasts due to macroeconomic headwinds and structural views [2][24]. - The analysis indicates that eCommerce stocks face a higher risk of downward estimate revisions compared to the average company in the Internet coverage [23][24]. Key Industry Trends and High-Frequency Data Heading Into Q1 Earnings - The report discusses the impact of tariffs on consumer goods, suggesting that they could accelerate the shift of consumers towards services, benefiting sectors like experiences, travel, and mobility [23][24]. - It emphasizes the importance of diversifying sourcing to mitigate tariff impacts, particularly for companies like AMZN [54][56].