On the surface, they they look pretty good, Brooke. >> Yeah, they looks pretty good. And this is another company that's reporting better than expected earnings of both the top and bottom line.When you take a look at the numbers, we did see a slight miss on revenue there, but adjusted earnings did come in better than expected, really powering that momentum behind what would be this very large expectations for those third quarter reports. And that's why you see the stock moving higher this morning. It popped ...

Snapple bringing back its iconic glass bottles and pop caps after an 8-year hiatus. Remember these guys. There's a catch.This is only going to happen and be in stores in New York City from October to December. So, come to New York. The company announcing the return of its top five flavors following what they said was an overwhelming demand.Snapple officially phased out the glass for plastic bottles in 2021, citing environmental reasons. ...

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - **Industry**: China/Hong Kong Consumer - **Event**: National Day Holiday 2025 Key Points General Demand Trends - Holiday retail sales growth was +2.7% year-over-year (yoy) during the Golden Week (Oct 1-7), which is a deceleration compared to the 3.4% yoy growth in August [2][12] - Per capita travel spending remained largely flat yoy despite an additional day of holiday, indicating a lack of imminent overall demand recovery [1][12] Domestic Travel Insights - The number of domestic travelers increased by +16.1% yoy during Golden Week, with tourism revenue up +15.4% yoy, translating to Rmb101 billion daily [3][14] - Daily spending per traveler was Rmb911, which is a slight decline of -0.6% yoy, but the gap compared to 2019 has narrowed [3][14] Hotel Industry Performance - Revenue per available room (RevPAR) in the hotel industry showed low-single-digit positive growth yoy, driven by an increase in average daily rate (ADR) [4][12] Outbound Travel - Daily average visitors for both outbound and inbound travel grew by +11.5% yoy [4][12] Hainan Duty-Free Market - Duty-free sales in Hainan reached Rmb944 million during the holiday, with a daily average of Rmb118 million, marking a +5% yoy increase [6][12] - Daily per capita spending was Rmb7.7K, up +8% yoy, although this level is still 44% lower than the peak in 2021 [6][12] Box Office Revenue - Box office revenue was reported at Rmb1.8 billion, with a daily revenue decline of -25% yoy [7][12] Consumption Shifts - Consumption patterns are shifting towards travel, impacting traditional gathering and gifting demand, particularly affecting liquor and liquid milk sales [11][12] Stock Implications - The company remains selective on consumer stocks due to mixed underlying momentum across categories, with preferences for growth stocks like Pop Mart and Giant Biogene, turnaround stocks like Shenzhou and Yili, and balanced return/value stocks like YUMC and ANTA [12][12] Additional Insights - The overall demand recovery appears to be sluggish, with travel intentions not translating into proportional spending, indicating potential risks for consumer stocks [1][12] - The performance of retail and restaurant sectors during the holiday was uneven, with tourist destination stores benefiting while residential and office area stores suffered [11][12]

Consumer Spending Trends - PJC forecast indicates a potential pullback in consumer spending, marking the steepest decline since the start of the virus pandemic [1] - The survey, conducted in June and July, reflects consumer sentiment at that time, making it potentially too early to definitively predict holiday spending [2] - Retailers face challenges due to tariffs, potentially leading to reduced discounts, which could impact consumer demand [3] - Consumers are willing to spend on important days, events, and loved ones, suggesting Christmas spending may not see a major drop [7] Generational Spending Patterns - Gen Z is projected to decrease spending the most, with a planned cutback of 23%, driving an overall 5% decline [4] - Unlike boomers, Gen X, and millennials, who plan to maintain their spending, Gen Z's pullback is significant [4] - Last year, Gen Z planned to spend 37% more on gifts, travel, and entertainment, highlighting a significant shift this year [5] Retail Impact - Retailers catering to younger shoppers, particularly Gen Z, will need to work harder to attract them [5] - The actual holiday season print may not be as negative as initially expected, based on previous experiences [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a Buy rating on AMZN, SHOP, and CHWY, indicating confidence in their resilience compared to other eCommerce stocks [24][7]. Core Insights - The digital consumer is perceived as resilient but is showing signs of slowing in Q1 operating trends, with expectations for the upcoming earnings season to reflect this dynamic [2][19]. - There is a downward risk to operating estimates in Q2 and beyond due to higher global tariffs, which could negatively impact consumer demand and gross margins for exposed platforms [2][21]. - The report revises the 2025 US eCommerce growth forecast down to +6% YoY from +7.5%, reflecting lower GDP growth expectations [2][24]. Summary by Sections Ratings, Stock Price Performance and Street Estimate Revisions - AMZN's 12-month price target is revised to $255 from $220, with a current price of $173, indicating a 27% upside [7]. - SHOP's price target is adjusted to $150 from $130, with a current price of $84, showing a 55% upside [7]. - CHWY maintains a price target of $45, with a current price of $35, reflecting a 28% upside [7]. Where is the Digital Consumer Today? - The report suggests that the digital consumer remains resilient, but there is a notable slowdown in travel trends and discretionary eCommerce goods [19][20]. - Investor fears have been more anticipatory, reacting to data points from other industries and soft consumer confidence [19][20]. Downside Analysis: What Could Happen to eCommerce Estimates? - The report highlights that eCommerce could decelerate by as much as -10 percentage points in a recession scenario, starting from a revised baseline of +6% YoY growth in 2025 [47][46]. - The analysis provides downside scenario analyses to help investors understand potential risks to estimates in more negative scenarios [46][22]. Refreshing the US eCommerce Industry Model - The report updates the US eCommerce model, reducing growth forecasts due to macroeconomic headwinds and structural views [2][24]. - The analysis indicates that eCommerce stocks face a higher risk of downward estimate revisions compared to the average company in the Internet coverage [23][24]. Key Industry Trends and High-Frequency Data Heading Into Q1 Earnings - The report discusses the impact of tariffs on consumer goods, suggesting that they could accelerate the shift of consumers towards services, benefiting sectors like experiences, travel, and mobility [23][24]. - It emphasizes the importance of diversifying sourcing to mitigate tariff impacts, particularly for companies like AMZN [54][56].