Data from the Reserve Bank of India showed aggregate deposits grew 10.2% in the financial year to Jan 31, with banks adding Rs 23 lakh crore. Credit expanded faster, rising 12.2% or Rs 22.3 lakh crore over the same period. In the year-ago period, deposits had grown 8.1% and credit 8.7%.On a year-on-year basis, credit growth accelerated to 19-month high of 14.6% as of end-Jan 2026, compared with 11.4% a year earlier, while deposit growth improved to 12.5% from 10.3%. The sustained gap underscores that credit ...

A robust pick-up in credit and deposits in the last fortnight of January indicates that the Indian economy is gathering steam, shrugging off headwinds arising from higher US tariffs, global trade fragmentation and geopolitical tension.Credits and deposits of all scheduled banks jumped ₹3,40,934 crore and ₹3,80,346 crore, respectively, in the fortnight ended January 31, 2026, reversing the decline on both fronts in the preceding fortnight, per the latest RBI data.Credit as well as deposits of all scheduled b ...

Core Insights - State Bank of India (SBI) has revised its credit growth target for the year from 12-14% to 13-15% based on current quarter trends, indicating a secular growth pattern with expectations of continued double-digit corporate credit growth into Q4 [4][6] - SBI reported a standalone net profit of Rs 21,028 crore for Q3FY26, marking a 24.5% year-on-year increase and the highest quarterly profit in its history, attributed to multiple factors including fee income and broad-based credit growth [4][6] - Net interest income increased by 9% year-on-year, driven by loan growth and lower funding costs, with a one-off special dividend of Rs 2,200 crore from SBI Mutual Fund contributing to profitability [4][6] Credit Growth and Segments - Growth has been broad-based across all components of RAM (Retail, Agriculture, and SME), with corporate credit rebounding and growing by 13.4% [5][6] - The higher credit growth guidance is supported by robust performance across all segments, including new-economy sectors such as data center financing and a strong focus on renewable energy [5][6] - SBI's green portfolio has reached Rs 1 lakh crore, reflecting its commitment to sustainable financing [5][6]

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices experienced a significant increase in 2025, rising from $2,600 per ounce to over $4,300, marking a 65% return, while gold mining stocks outperformed with the VanEck Gold Miners ETF rising by 155% [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - In 2024, gold lagged behind speculative assets like big tech stocks and Bitcoin, but this trend reversed in 2025 as gold and mining stocks surged while riskier assets cooled [2][3] - The shift in market dynamics indicates that gold performs better during periods of tightening credit, which is currently evidenced by the decline in speculative assets [3][4] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The Federal Reserve's rate cuts and the increase in 30-year Treasury bond yields suggest weaker credit growth, which typically leads to gold outperforming industrial commodities [4] - Historical data shows that during the 1970s, gold prices rose significantly faster than most industrial commodities, reinforcing the current outlook for gold [5] Group 3: Cost Dynamics for Gold Miners - Oliver argues that gold miners are not facing the usual cost pressures, and if gold prices continue to rise faster than input costs, profit margins should expand rather than contract [6][7] - The strong performance of gold mining stocks in 2025 is viewed as the beginning of a longer bull market rather than a peak [7]

Core Insights - The banking sector is experiencing robust loan growth, with RBI data indicating a nearly 12% year-on-year increase and a 4.5% quarter-on-quarter rise in banking system advances as of mid-December 2025 [1][21] - Key segments driving this growth include micro and small enterprises, services, and retail loans, with industrial credit also picking up significantly [2][21] - Despite steady loan growth, deposit growth is lagging, with system-level deposits increasing by 9.7% year-on-year, resulting in a credit-deposit ratio exceeding 81% [6][21] Loan Growth - Loan growth is expected to be around 11.6% year-on-year for the coverage universe in Q3, with banks like HDFC Bank, Axis Bank, and ICICI Bank anticipated to outperform the sector average [21] - Retail, MSME, and services loans are expected to lead the credit growth momentum, particularly among mid-sized and small finance banks [5][21] Deposit Trends - Deposit growth remains a pressure point for the sector, with banks increasingly relying on certificates of deposit and selective rate hikes to mobilize deposits [6][7] - Elara Capital notes that slower growth in low-cost deposits and higher credit-deposit ratios may limit the benefits of liability repricing in FY27 [7][21] Margin Stability - Net interest margins (NIMs) are projected to remain stable in Q3, aided by CRR cuts and deposit repricing, with most banks expected to see only marginal movements [9][10] - YES Securities anticipates a mild sequential decline in NIMs, clustering around a 5-basis-point drop, although loan spreads have improved due to sharper cuts in deposit rates [11][21] Fee Income and Operating Expenses - Fee income is expected to improve sequentially in Q3, driven by higher loan disbursements and stable business momentum, which should help offset weaker treasury income [12][21] - Operating expenses are likely to remain flat sequentially, as previous wage revisions and seasonal cost increases have been absorbed [12][21] Asset Quality - Asset quality is stabilizing, with a reduction in stress in unsecured lending, particularly in microfinance, and slippages expected to remain stable [13][21] - Provisions are expected to decline for several banks, reflecting better collections and lower incremental stress [14][21] Profitability Outlook - Q3 is anticipated to mark a turning point for earnings, with year-on-year profitability expected to improve for most banks, reversing the contraction seen in Q2 [15][21] - JM Financial estimates a net interest income growth of about 4.7% year-on-year, with large banks like HDFC Bank and ICICI Bank expected to deliver strong return ratios [16][21] Key Trends - Three clear themes for Q3 include sustained growth led by retail and MSME loans, stabilizing margins with repricing benefits, and improving asset quality reducing downside risks to earnings [18][21] - Investor focus is likely to remain on banks with strong balance sheets and diversified loan books as Q3 results are released [19][21]

Core Insights - State Bank of India (SBI) is expected to achieve a home loan portfolio exceeding ₹10 lakh crore in the next fiscal year, driven by strong demand and a favorable low-interest-rate environment [1][2] - SBI's home loan portfolio recently surpassed ₹9 lakh crore, making it the largest mortgage loan provider in India [2] - The bank's home loan book grew by 14.4% year-on-year, closing FY25 at ₹8.31 lakh crore [2] Group 1: Home Loan Portfolio Growth - SBI's home loan portfolio has steadily increased from ₹1 lakh crore in March 2011 to ₹9 lakh crore in November 2025 [3] - The bank has maintained non-performing assets (NPAs) in the home loan segment at less than 1%, with a gross NPA of 0.72% at the end of FY25, one of the lowest in the banking sector [3] Group 2: Overall Credit Growth - SBI has revised its overall credit growth target from 12% to 14% for the current fiscal year, anticipating robust growth particularly from the Retail, Agriculture, and MSME (RAM) segments [4][5] - The RAM segment, which constitutes 67% of SBI's total loan portfolio, crossed the ₹25 lakh crore milestone in September [4] - The MSME sector is experiencing growth rates of 17-18%, while agriculture and retail are growing at around 14% [5]

Core Insights - State Bank of India (SBI) is on track for one of its strongest years, with shares rising nearly 25% in 2025, positioning it for a fifth consecutive year of positive returns and its most impressive run in two years [2][4] - The growth is driven by a favorable earnings outlook, improving asset quality, and expectations of steady credit growth, supported by a stable macroeconomic environment [2][4] - Analysts expect SBI to grow faster than the broader industry due to its strong balance sheet and low-cost deposit base, with a loan book accounting for nearly 23-24% of India's total [3][4] Financial Performance - In the September quarter, net interest margins expanded by 7 basis points due to better deposit repricing and liability management [3][4] - The Current Account and Savings Account (CASA) ratio stands at 36.9%, with SBI commanding over 22% market share in total deposits and around 23% in CASA deposits [3][4] - SBI's credit cost is maintained at just 50 basis points while growing at 12-14% [3] Earnings Estimates and Valuation - Parag Thakkar of Fort Capital estimates SBI's FY27 earnings per share at Rs 85 and book value at Rs 585, indicating the stock trades at about 1.1 times book value for a return on assets trending toward 1.3% [3][4] - CLSA raised its target price to Rs 1,170, implying nearly 20% upside, while Axis Securities maintains a Buy rating, citing no visible headwinds on growth or asset quality [3][4] - HSBC has upgraded its valuation outlook with a revised target price of Rs 1,110, and Nomura expects SBI to deliver return on assets and return on equity of 1.1% and 16%, respectively, through FY27-28 [3][4] Growth Outlook - Analysts believe SBI is entering the next phase of its growth cycle with multiple tailwinds improving margins, robust loan growth, and healthy asset quality [3][4] - Despite potential near-term consolidation, market experts view any correction as an attractive buying opportunity, maintaining a positive sentiment toward SBI going into 2026 [3][4]

Core Insights - The credit growth of banks in India is expected to rebound as companies increase their working capital utilization for day-to-day operations, following a temporary dip linked to IPO fundraising [1][2][5][7] Group 1: Credit Growth Trends - Recent credit offtake slowdown is seen as temporary, primarily due to the surge in IPO fundraising across various sectors [1][3] - Historical data indicates a modest negative correlation between IPO mobilization and overall bank credit growth, suggesting that higher IPO funds can lead to reduced immediate borrowing needs from banks [2][3] Group 2: Sectoral Analysis - Industries such as finance, automobiles, pharmaceuticals, telecom, consumer durables, and infrastructure have shown lower credit growth in years with higher IPO fundraising [3][4] - Companies typically utilize IPO funds for expansion, capital expenditure, or debt repayment, which reduces their immediate need for bank loans [4] Group 3: Economic Context - As business activity remains strong and production levels rise, firms are expected to seek more financing for operational expenses, leading to increased demand for bank loans [5] - The overall economic momentum in India, supported by strong GDP numbers, is anticipated to drive higher funding needs among companies [5] Group 4: Role of the Reserve Bank of India - The Reserve Bank of India is expected to play a crucial role in maintaining proactive liquidity management to support the anticipated rise in credit demand [6] - Adequate liquidity in the banking system is essential for stable borrowing conditions and recovery in loan growth [6] Group 5: Future Outlook - With rising working capital requirements, fading IPO-related effects, and robust economic activity, India's credit growth is projected to rebound in the coming quarters [7]

Core Insights - Banks have increased their credit growth guidance for the current financial year due to factors such as GST rate cuts, lower interest rates following a 100 basis points repo cut, and easing banking regulations by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) [1][2] Group 1: Banking Sector - State Bank of India (SBI) has revised its credit growth guidance from 11% to 12-14% for FY26, citing robust growth across business segments and supportive measures from the RBI and fiscal policies [2] - SBI reported significant demand for car and personal loans following the GST rate cuts in September [3] - Axis Bank anticipates strong credit growth in H2FY26, driven by favorable conditions such as repo cuts, improved liquidity, and a favorable monsoon, despite facing headwinds in H1FY26 [3][4] Group 2: Non-Banking Financial Companies (NBFCs) - Shriram Finance has observed increased credit demand in the last week of September, particularly in the two-wheeler and car segments, and has guided for a loan growth of 15% in FY26, with potential for higher growth of 17-18% [5] - Piramal Finance expects an AUM growth of 25% for the fiscal year, noting that while used car prices have decreased due to GST reductions, the increase in units sold compensates for this [6]

Core Insights - The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is concerned about a slowdown in credit growth and a lack of entrepreneurial spirit in the domestic market, as indicated by a year-on-year non-food credit growth of only 11.2% as of October 3 [1] - The RBI has implemented measures to stimulate credit growth, including relaxing regulations on bank-funded mergers and acquisitions and adjusting risk weights to enable non-bank finance companies (NBFCs) to lend more for infrastructure projects [3][4] - The RBI's strategy has shifted towards welcoming foreign capital in private banks and NBFCs, marking a departure from its previous focus on domestic capital infusion [6][8] Credit Growth Trends - Year-on-year growth in loans to industry was only 6.5%, compared to 10.6% for services and 11.8% for retail borrowers, highlighting a worrying trend in credit deployment [2] - The RBI's recent guidelines aim to create conditions conducive to a revival of credit demand, especially in light of weak credit growth and rising default risks in retail loans [7] Foreign Capital Influx - The RBI has allowed private equity firms to acquire larger stakes in private banks and NBFCs, such as Blackstone's nearly 10% stake in Federal Bank valued at ₹6,200 crore [5] - This openness to foreign investment is seen as a strategy to mitigate risks associated with local investors' reluctance to engage in banking opportunities [8] Economic Growth Measures - The RBI's latest measures signal that softer interest rates alone may not be sufficient to accelerate economic growth, prompting the government to introduce a tax stimulus [9] - Addressing deep deficiencies on the demand side requires solutions that significantly increase household incomes to stimulate economic activity [10]