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柳药集团(603368):批发及工业短期承压,激励彰显信心
HTSC· 2025-08-29 11:14
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of RMB 23.61 [7][8]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of RMB 103.01 billion and a net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 4.29 billion for 1H25, showing a year-on-year decline of 3.2% and 7.5% respectively. However, the revenue growth in 2Q25 improved compared to 1Q25, indicating a positive trend [1][2]. - The company has introduced a stock incentive and employee shareholding plan for 2025, reflecting confidence in future performance and aiming to enhance employee motivation and team stability [3]. - The overall expense ratio remained stable in 1H25, while the gross profit margin decreased by 0.74 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to the impact of centralized procurement [4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 1H25, the industrial revenue was RMB 5.63 billion, with a net profit of RMB 0.90 billion, showing a slight increase in revenue but a decline in net profit. The wholesale revenue was RMB 80.51 billion, down 4.7% year-on-year, while retail revenue grew by 3.62% to RMB 16.43 billion [2][4]. - The company expects a gradual recovery in performance due to improved cash collection and the digestion of policy impacts [1][5]. Incentive Plans - The stock incentive plan aims for a growth rate of 6% to 12% in net profit and 20% to 30% in industrial revenue over the next two years compared to the average of 2022-2024 [3]. Valuation and Forecast - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders is adjusted to RMB 8.5 billion, RMB 8.9 billion, and RMB 9.2 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding EPS of RMB 2.14, RMB 2.24, and RMB 2.32 [5][10]. - The company is valued at a PE ratio of 13x for industrial business, 10x for wholesale, and 11x for retail, reflecting the expected performance and market conditions [5][11].