Silver futures surged to a historic $75 per ounce on December 26, capping off a breathtaking rally that has pushed the metal into uncharted territory. The move has been driven in large part by acute physical shortages in China, where a retail buying frenzy has collided with tight supply, sending prices sharply higher. Month to date, COMEX silver – as tracked by the iShares Silver Trust (NYSE:SLV) – is up roughly 30%, putting it on pace for its best monthly performance since December 1979. On a year-to-date ...

贵金属市场延续狂热态势。 12月26日，金银现货与期货价格同步创下历史新高。 现货市场上，截至记者发稿，伦敦金现日内涨幅0.93%，交投于4520美元/盎司附近，盘中最高触及 4531.284美元/盎司，为历史首次；白银表现更为迅猛，伦敦银现报75.389美元/盎司，日内大涨近5%， 盘中最高触及75.515美元/盎司，年内涨幅已近150%。 | 伦敦金现 | | | SPTAUUSDOZ | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 4520.880 | | | +41.490 +0.93% | | IDC USD 18:33:23 | | | 0 | | 三一 | 4522.130 | | | | 买- | 4520.880 | | | | 总量 | 0 | 现手 | 0 | | 结算价 | | 开盘 | 4473.747 | | 最高 | 4531.284 最低 | | 4470.050 | | 均价 | | 振幅 | 1.37% | | 外盘 | 0 | 内盘 | 0 | | 昨结 | 4479.390 | 昨收 | 4479.390 | | 涨停 | 0.000 | 跌停 | 0.00 ...

Key Takeaways Precious metals surged on safe-haven demand and a weaker dollar, lifting GLD, SLV, PPLT, PALL.Silver and platinum outpaced gold this year on industrial demand and tight supply dynamics.Policy easing and geopolitical risks could keep metal ETFs supported into 2026.Precious metals rallied to record highs ahead of Christmas. Gold edged past the $4,500-per-ounce mark for the first time on Wednesday, while silver and platinum also touched fresh all-time highs, as investors rushed into precious meta ...

Core Viewpoint - Tether (USDT) has received a low stability score from S&P Global while simultaneously increasing its gold reserves, raising questions about its financial stability and strategic positioning in the evolving monetary landscape [1][2][4]. Group 1: S&P Global Assessment - S&P Global downgraded Tether's stability score from 4 (constrained) to 5 (weak), citing a shift in reserve composition towards riskier assets such as Bitcoin, gold, secured loans, and corporate credit [2]. - Bitcoin now constitutes approximately 5.6% of USDT in circulation, surpassing the 3.9% overcollateralization margin, indicating potential vulnerability during price downturns [2]. - Additional structural weaknesses noted include limited disclosure, lack of asset segregation for insolvency protection, absence of regulatory frameworks, and constraints on primary redemption [3]. Group 2: Tether's Gold Purchases - Tether purchased 26 tonnes of gold in the last quarter, surpassing purchases by several sovereign nations, including Kazakhstan, Brazil, Turkey, and Iraq [3]. - With an estimated total of 116 tonnes of gold, Tether has become the largest independent holder of physical gold, comparable to the national reserves of South Korea and Hungary [3]. Group 3: Market Implications - The contrasting narratives surrounding Tether suggest it is either a risky and opaque entity or strategically positioning itself for a potential shift in the monetary system where Bitcoin and gold may play a more significant role alongside reserve currencies [4][5]. - The situation presents a dichotomy where either S&P's concerns are valid, indicating instability, or Tether is proactively preparing for a transformative financial environment [5].

Core Insights - Argentina's political landscape is shifting with Javier Milei's party winning decisively, indicating a potential change in economic policy and governance [2][4] - The U.S. is leveraging financial support to influence Argentina's political outcomes, highlighting the intersection of finance and geopolitics [5][15] - The use of the Exchange Stabilization Fund (ESF) to manipulate electoral outcomes raises concerns about the integrity of financial markets and the dollar's status [6][19] Political Developments - Javier Milei's coalition won 41% of the vote, significantly increasing its congressional representation [2] - The U.S. has tied financial support to Argentina's political alignment, specifically excluding China from military and port access [5][15] - The political intervention by the U.S. has been characterized as a direct manipulation of electoral outcomes rather than mere stabilization [8][19] Financial Market Reactions - Following the election, Argentina's peso dropped 5%, and stocks fell 10%, indicating market volatility in response to political uncertainty [3] - The ESF's involvement led to a temporary stabilization of the peso, allowing investors to exit at favorable prices before the market adjusted [9][11] - Major banks have expressed reluctance to provide additional financial support, indicating a shift in market sentiment and risk assessment [10] Economic Implications - Argentina's external debt exceeds $300 billion, with significant payments due by July 2026, raising concerns about future restructurings [8][12] - The dollar's share of global reserves has decreased from 60% in 2021 to below 58%, reflecting a growing trend towards de-dollarization [14] - The political conditionality of financial support may lead to increased volatility and wider credit spreads in emerging markets [17] Strategic Considerations - The ESF's use for political purposes may undermine trust in the dollar as a stable reserve currency, prompting central banks to seek alternatives [15][22] - The precedent set by U.S. intervention in Argentina could influence how other emerging markets perceive their financial relationships with the U.S. [19][24] - The potential for increased geopolitical tensions as countries reassess their reliance on the dollar and explore alternative financial systems [13][23]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Focus**: Asian FX and Rates outlook for 2026, with emphasis on macroeconomic trends and investment strategies Core Themes and Arguments 1. **Economic Growth Projections**: - Asia's GDP growth is expected to moderate in 2026, with a forecasted real GDP growth of 4.5% y/y for China, which is below the historical average [13][12] - The growth differential between Asia and the US is narrowing, with US growth remaining near trend supported by investment and fiscal easing [13][12] 2. **Currency Performance**: - Asian currencies underperformed in 2025, gaining only about 2% against the USD, while missing out on significant tailwinds [13][12] - The USD/Asia exchange rate is projected to edge 2-3% higher in 2026, influenced by US AI-driven productivity gains and ongoing labor market weaknesses [3][12] 3. **Investment Strategies**: - Recommended trades include long positions in CNH against the CFETS basket, short IDR against INR, and buying USD/THB put spreads [9][16][35] - The strategy emphasizes opportunistic buying of dips in select USD/Asia longs and receiving 10-year KRW and THB swaps against JPY [9][44] 4. **Market Risks**: - Potential risks include an AI bubble scenario that could push USD/Asia 5-6% higher, and a setback in tech stocks that may negatively impact USD against peers [3][12] - The ongoing resident outflows from open capital account economies are a significant concern, with Asian equity flows recovering only half of the losses from Q1 [3][12] 5. **Bond Market Outlook**: - Asian bond yields are expected to decline at a slower pace, with an average 10-year bond yield drop of only 15bps anticipated over the next 12 months [13][12] - Thailand and Korea are expected to lead the decline in bond yields, while other regions may trade sideways [13][12] Additional Important Insights 1. **China's Economic Position**: - China's current account balance has surged to approximately 4% of GDP, the highest since 2009, driven by strong export growth [19][24] - The yuan is considered undervalued, screening as 7% cheap relative to its historical relationship with export shares [22][18] 2. **Indonesia's Economic Challenges**: - Indonesia faces significant headwinds, including a deteriorating current account balance and shrinking FX reserves, which could pressure the IDR [28][29][33] - The central bank's aggressive rate cuts have narrowed the ID/US rate differentials, further complicating the outlook for the rupiah [27][30] 3. **Thailand's BoP Dynamics**: - Thailand's balance of payments is strong, averaging around 4% of GDP, which supports the THB [35][40] - Seasonal tourism inflows are expected to bolster the baht, with historical trends indicating a tendency for the currency to appreciate during year-end [38][42] 4. **Korea's Monetary Policy**: - The Bank of Korea is expected to cut rates further in 2026, with market pricing for hikes seen as premature given the weak domestic demand [45][46] - Financial stability risks are being addressed through macroprudential policies, although the property market remains a concern [47][46] 5. **Key Dates to Watch**: - Important upcoming events include the G20 meeting, China Politburo meetings, and various central bank meetings that could influence market dynamics [8][12] This summary encapsulates the critical insights and strategic recommendations from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the Asian FX and Rates landscape for 2026.

Summary of Zijin Mining Group Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Zijin Mining Group - **Industry**: Mining (Copper and Gold) - **Headquarters**: China - **Market Cap**: US$107.469 billion as of November 5, 2025 - **Stock Ratings**: Overweight (OW) for both H and A shares with price targets of HK$46.1 and Rmb42.2 respectively [1][8][52] Key Industry Insights - **Copper and Gold Market**: The current market for copper and gold is characterized by supply disruptions and rising prices, making Zijin Mining a standout choice among copper stocks [3][12][56] - **Production Growth**: Zijin expects copper production to reach 115,000 tonnes in 2025, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 10.5% from 2025 to 2028. Gold production is expected to grow at a CAGR of 7.3% [3][53] Financial Performance - **Cost Control**: Zijin has maintained low exploration costs, averaging US$11.7 per ounce of gold, significantly below the industry average of US$32.3 per ounce. Mining costs have also decreased from US$38.7 per tonne in 2022 to US$31.3 in 2023 [4][54] - **Revenue and Profitability**: Projected revenues for 2025 are Rmb354.239 million, with net income expected to reach Rmb52.385 million. The company has a P/E ratio of 11.0 for 2025, which is attractive compared to peers [8][32][61] Market Outlook - **Bullish Commodity Outlook**: The commodities team forecasts copper prices to rise due to supply disruptions, with a projected deficit of 230,000 tonnes in 2025 and 590,000 tonnes in 2026. Gold prices are expected to rebound to US$4,500 per ounce by mid-2026 [5][57][59] - **Geopolitical Factors**: Ongoing geopolitical tensions and the trend towards de-dollarization are expected to increase demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [55][58] Investment Drivers - **M&A Activity**: Recent mergers and acquisitions in gold, lithium, and molybdenum projects are expected to enhance Zijin's growth potential and diversify its portfolio [22][23] - **Sustainable Growth Model**: The company employs an "acquisition — exploration — reserve expansion" model, which has proven effective in achieving sustainable operational growth [3][53] Risks and Considerations - **Upside Risks**: Stronger copper prices driven by robust demand or continued supply disruptions could benefit Zijin. Additionally, project ramp-ups and untapped resources present further growth opportunities [56][59] - **Downside Risks**: Potential risks include weaker copper prices due to economic downturns, project execution failures, and geopolitical disruptions that could impact production [56][59] Valuation - **Attractive Valuation**: Zijin's valuation is considered attractive compared to peers, with a projected P/E of 11.2x for 2026, lower than the average of ~13x for other copper miners [6][61][60] Conclusion Zijin Mining Group is positioned favorably within the copper and gold markets, with strong production growth, effective cost control, and a positive outlook for commodity prices. The company's strategic M&A activities and sustainable growth model further enhance its investment appeal.

Core Insights - The surge in physical buying of silver in India due to the Diwali holiday has led to significant spot premiums, indicating a potential shift in the precious metals market dynamics towards supply and demand over paper trading [1] - Both gold and silver have seen spot prices rise over 150%, with recent backwardation suggesting a physical metals shortage [1] Industrial Reasons - Gold is increasingly used in medical applications such as pacemakers and imaging, while silver is valued for its electrical conductivity in various technologies [5][7] - The demand for solar panels and AI technologies is driving significant physical silver purchases, particularly from China and Saudi Arabia [7] Economic Reasons - Inflation under current economic policies has been a major driver for the bull run in gold and silver prices since 2022, with the US dollar losing significant purchasing power [9][10] Geopolitical Reasons - A global trend towards de-dollarization, led by BRICS nations, is contributing to increased accumulation of physical gold and silver [19] - Central banks are hoarding gold and silver at an accelerated rate, further impacting supply dynamics [19] Systemic Reasons - The paper silver market is significantly larger than the available physical silver, leading to concerns about the reliability of futures markets [21][24] - Current shortages are exacerbated by refinery capacity issues and increased hoarding at the sovereign level [21][24] ETFs to Consider - Various ETFs such as Abrdn Physical Silver Shares ETF, Sprott Physical Silver Trust, and SPDR Gold Trust are highlighted as potential investment vehicles that track the spot prices of silver and gold [2][3][26]

Group 1: Gold Price Movement - Gold prices have recently crashed below the $4,000 level after previously rising past $5,000 per ounce, impacting gold mining companies significantly [1] - The recent decline in gold prices is viewed as a healthy correction, with expectations that prices will not fall much below the $4,000 level [4] Group 2: Gold Mining Companies - Anglogold Ashanti (AU) stock has seen a significant increase, tripling in value this year, but is now nearing bear market territory with a potential drawdown of 20% from its peak [2] - The outlook for AU and similar mining companies is primarily driven by gold prices rather than company-specific factors [4] Group 3: Long-term Drivers for Gold - Central banks globally are engaged in de-dollarization, with their gold holdings surpassing U.S. Treasury holdings for the first time in three decades, indicating a strong demand for gold [5] - Trust in fiat currencies has diminished due to rising national debts, with many investors turning to gold as a safe-haven asset [5] - Loose monetary policies and low interest rates are expected to support gold prices, as lower rates are favorable for non-yielding assets like gold [5] - Ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly from countries like China and Russia, are likely to keep demand for gold elevated [5]

Core Insights - The SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) experienced a 5% decline over the past week due to easing U.S.-China trade tensions, a stronger U.S. dollar, and technical indicators suggesting overbought conditions [1] - The U.S. dollar ETF Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund (UUP) gained 0.5% over the past week and 1.3% over the past month, while lower-than-expected September inflation negatively impacted gold prices [2] - A potential U.S.-China trade agreement could significantly reduce geopolitical tensions that have been supporting gold prices [3] Gold Market Performance - The gold bullion ETF GLD has surged approximately 53.8% year-to-date and 7.1% over the past month, while the S&P 500 has increased by 15.8% this year and 2% in the past month [5] - Investors are increasingly turning to gold as a safe-haven asset amid global instability, geopolitical tensions, and the likelihood of Federal Reserve rate cuts [6] Central Bank Demand - Central bank demand, particularly from BRICS nations and emerging economies, is driving the gold rally as these countries seek to diversify away from the U.S. dollar [7] Investment Recommendations - Ray Dalio of Bridgewater Associates recommends a 15% portfolio allocation to gold, citing its role as a hedge against monetary debasement and geopolitical uncertainty [8] - Dalio compares the current market environment to the early 1970s, highlighting gold as a credible safe-haven asset amid high inflation and government debt [9] Future Projections - Market expert Ed Yardeni predicts gold could reach $10,000 per ounce by 2030, driven by factors such as tariffs, pressure on the Fed to lower interest rates, and issues in China's real estate market [11] - For investors looking to capitalize on the bullish trend, gold ETFs like SPDR Gold Trust (GLD), iShares Gold Trust (IAU), and SPDR Gold MiniShares Trust (IAUM) are recommended [12]