The year 2025 can easily be remembered for a gold rally. Gold bullion ETF SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) is up 51.7% so far this year (as of Oct. 8, 2025). Over the past month, the ETF has surged more than 11%. In comparison, the S&P 500 is up 15% this year and 3.7% in the past month.In an environment marked with global instability, geopolitical tensions and the strong likelihood of Fed rate cuts, investors are flocking to gold as a reliable safe-haven asset. The current U.S. government shutdown has sparked demand f ...

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Gold prices are set to surpass $4,400 an ounce in the first half of 2026, as the Federal Reserve eases amid rising inflation while central banks and private funds continue buying the precious metal, said Bart Melek, head of commodity strategy at TD Securities.Gold has already set a record-breaking rally, topping $4,000/oz amid de-dollarization talks and China's bullion custody plans. Fear of missing out and anticipation of the U.S. government shutdown augmenting rate cuts also motivate investors to grow the ...

A previous version of this Need to Know column and a MarketWatch news alert inaccurately characterized Ken Griffin’s view on gold, as compared with that of Goldman Sachs.  Gold’s rally hints at trouble under the surface of U.S. markets, says Citadel’s Ken Griffin. - MarketWatch photo illustration/Getty Images As a government shutdown drags on, markets are hard at work, dazzling investors on all fronts — from fresh S&P 500 SPX and Nasdaq COMP highs, to a rally for gold that’s about to take it to $4,000 an ...

For all the hype over artificial intelligence and the surge in chip stocks this year, gold miners have actually been the better buy. Most Read from Bloomberg A gauge of the world’s gold equities from MSCI Inc. has soared about 135% this year, tracking gains in the precious metal. It’s on course for its greatest-ever outperformance versus the index compiler’s measure of major global semiconductor firms, which is up 40%. The surprisingly large gap underscores a key dynamic in this year’s global markets: ...

Wall Street is brushing off recession risks and the ramifications of a government shutdown, with stocks at healthy highs and interest rate cuts expected soon. Yet gold is telling a different story: prices have surged more than 45% over the past year to nearly $3,870, as investors and central banks pile in for safety. Goldman Sachs now sees gold prices reaching $4,300 by late 2026, with analysts expecting buyers will be driven by diversification away from Treasuries, de-dollarization, and geopolitical risks ...

Gold (GCZ25) prices overnight hit another record high of $3,922.70, basis December Comex futures. Siver (SIZ25) prices scored another 14-year high of $47.825 in December futures. Better safe-haven demand amid the uncertainty of the U.S. government shutting down at midnight last night is the latest bullish catalyst for the two precious metals. www.barchart.com www.barchart.com In this report I’m going to offer my perspective on the record-setting bull move in gold and the near-record (possibly to be brok ...

Executive SummarySeptember 2025 marks a historic period for precious metals markets, with both gold and silver achieving remarkable milestones. Gold has surged above $3,700 per ounce, trading at approximately $3,723 as of September 22, 2025, representing a gain of over 25% since the start of the year. More dramatically, silver has risen to $46.04 per ounce, up 19.31% over the past month and 45.60% year-over-year, approaching levels not seen in over a decade and nearing its all-time high. The precious metals ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the **Dollar's dominance and depreciation** within the context of the international financial system, analyzing its current status and future outlook. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Dollar's Future**: The Dollar is unlikely to be replaced soon, but it is expected to depreciate due to the US economy's less exceptional performance, making it harder to attract unhedged capital flows [3][4][5] 2. **De-dollarization Evidence**: There is limited evidence of de-dollarization despite a decline in the Dollar's share of central bank reserves by approximately 8 percentage points since 2015. The Dollar remains dominant in global debt issuance, cross-border transactions, and spot FX trading volumes [10][12][16] 3. **Structural Factors**: The US's share of global debt, GDP, and trade are more significant for the Dollar's internationalization than short-term financial swings. The gradual erosion of Dollar dominance is anticipated, but displacement appears distant [3][32][41] 4. **TINA Factor**: Attempts to diversify away from Dollar dominance are hindered by the unmatched scale, liquidity, and network effects of the Dollar. Alternatives like the Euro and Renminbi face significant challenges [4][58][61] 5. **Forward-Looking Dollar View**: The Dollar is expected to depreciate further due to less exceptional economic performance and a high valuation that needs correction. The Euro and Yuan are projected to strengthen due to favorable economic conditions in Europe and China [65][69][70] Additional Important Considerations 1. **Impact of US Policies**: The US's evolving trade and security policies may impact its share of global trade, which could have significant implications for Dollar internationalization. A 5 percentage point reduction in the US's share of global trade could lead to a ~2.5 percentage point decrease in the Dollar's global usage [42][45] 2. **Historical Context**: Historical patterns indicate that shifts in currency dominance can be slow and complex, often influenced by geopolitical factors and institutional considerations. The UK’s experience with Sterling illustrates this inertia [45][53] 3. **Stablecoins and Dollar Dominance**: The rise of Dollar-pegged stablecoins reinforces the Dollar's global standing, as the majority of circulating stablecoins are Dollar-based [54][60] 4. **Gradual Changes**: The report emphasizes that any erosion of Dollar dominance is likely to be a multi-decade process, while further Dollar depreciation is expected in the near term [71][74] This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call regarding the Dollar's current status and future outlook in the global financial system.

Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - Gold has reached an all-time high, hitting record levels over 30 times this year, but a pullback may be anticipated based on historical trends [1][7] - The SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) has seen a 13.8% increase over the past 24 sessions, with a relative strength index (RSI) above 80, indicating it is overbought [3][4] - Historical data shows that when GLD gained 13% or more with an RSI above 80, the following returns were negative: -1% in 1 month, -3% in 3 months, -3.5% in 6 months, and -3.2% in 12 months [6][7] Group 2: Central Bank Activity - Global central banks have accumulated over 1,000 tonnes of gold each year for the last three years, significantly higher than the 400-500 tonnes average of the previous decade [8] - A survey indicated that 95% of central banks expect their gold reserves to increase over the next 12 months [8] Group 3: Economic Indicators - Real yields on U.S. Treasuries remain low relative to inflation expectations, which supports gold as an investment [9][11] - High stock market valuations often precede significant gold rallies, with historical data showing a 52% average gold rally following months in the highest valuation decile [12][13] Group 4: Federal Reserve Insights - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell acknowledged that equity prices are "fairly highly valued," which may impact market conditions [16][17] - Powell's comments led to a market sell-off, highlighting the importance of the Fed's interest rate decisions over mere commentary on stock valuations [17][18] Group 5: Political and Market Developments - The Trump administration is planning new measures to address high housing costs and has engaged in significant investments in various sectors, including a proposed equity stake in Lithium Americas Corp. [20][21] - The anticipated "Trump Shock" on September 30 could lead to a substantial influx of capital into the market, potentially igniting a lucrative bull market [24][23]