For weeks, President Trump has scrambled to respond. He issued a 48-hour ultimatum threatening to “obliterate” Iran’s power plants if Tehran did not reopen the strait. Iran countered by threatening to mine the Persian Gulf and target American energy infrastructure in the region. Trump then postponed his deadline amid what the White House described as diplomatic progress—a face-saving maneuver that former Defense Secretary James Mattis warned could ultimately cede the strait to Tehran’s influence. “You’d see ...

After decades as the world's reserve currency and the backbone of global trade, the US dollar's dominance is being tested. Concerns about rising US debt, unpredictable trade policy, and geopolitical tensions have prompted some countries and investors to rethink the heavy reliance on the greenback. This poses a persistent question.Is the world ddollarizing. And if so, to what. >> On paper, the euro is the obvious alternative.if it's backed by the world's second largest economy and a deep rules-based framewor ...

The U.S. national debt is climbing at a pace that’s hard to ignore. The total debt has surged to nearly $38.88 trillion, as of March 13. It’s not just the scale, but the speed is what everyone is spooked about. And with the Federal Reserve set to announce its latest policy decision, the intersection of debt, rates and crypto is back in focus. Related: U.S. debt worries sends crypto stocks crashing Debt surge raises pressure on Fed policy Former U.S. Representative Ron Paul has warned that the situation ...

Group 1 - The article discusses concerns about the potential decline of the USD and its implications for investments, particularly in the context of de-dollarization and currency hedging strategies [3][30]. - It highlights the performance comparison between unhedged and hedged equity funds, specifically focusing on the iShares MSCI Japan ETF (EWJ) and the WisdomTree Japan Hedged Equity ETF (DXJ) [8][12]. - The article emphasizes the importance of understanding the difference between being denominated in a currency versus being hedged against currency fluctuations, which can significantly impact investment performance [15][18]. Group 2 - The performance of DXJ has been notably superior to EWJ, with DXJ achieving a 453% return compared to EWJ's 107% since DXJ's inception in 2006, illustrating the benefits of currency hedging in a depreciating currency environment [20]. - The article notes that the Japanese Yen has experienced significant volatility, with a 56% appreciation against the USD from 2006 to 2012, followed by a decline, which affects the performance of both hedged and unhedged funds [24][25]. - It suggests that investors should consider the underlying methodology of funds, as DXJ is designed to favor companies that benefit from a weaker yen, while EWJ is more general in its approach [28].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term energy prices remaining high may subject the precious metals market to inflation - risk trading, but due to the ongoing US - Iran conflict, precious metal prices are supported and will maintain high volatility [5] - In the long run, the logic of the precious metals bull market remains solid. With the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates this year, continuous global geopolitical uncertainties, and the US's huge debt promoting the de - dollarization wave, the allocation demand of global central banks, institutions, and residents is expected to continue, and the price center of precious metals has room to rise. Long - term strategies suggest buying on dips [5] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Price Tracking - On March 4, 2026, London gold spot was $5164.14 per ounce, London silver spot was $84.93 per ounce, COMEX gold was $5174.80 per ounce, and COMEX silver was $85.05 per ounce. Compared with March 3, gold prices dropped by 2.7% and silver prices decreased by 0.2% [3] - The price of the AU2604 gold futures contract was 1153.06 yuan per gram, and the AG2604 silver futures contract was 21854 yuan per kilogram on March 4, 2026, with a change of - 2.4% and 1.0% respectively compared to March 3 [3] - The spreads and ratios of gold and silver in different markets also showed certain changes. For example, the gold TD - SHFE active spread changed by - 21.8% from March 3 to March 4 [3] 2. Position Data - As of March 3, 2026, the gold ETF - SPDR was 1099.04 tons, and the silver ETF - SLV was 15981.38274 tons. Compared with March 2, the changes were - 0.21% and 0.50% respectively [3] - COMEX gold non - commercial long positions were 211649 contracts, non - commercial short positions were 52472 contracts, and non - commercial net long positions were 159177 contracts on March 3, 2026, with corresponding changes compared to March 2 [3] 3. Inventory Data - On March 4, 2026, the SHFE gold inventory was 105033.00 kilograms, a - 0.03% change from March 3. The SHFE silver inventory was 294823.00 kilograms, a - 4.12% change from March 3 [3] - On March 3, 2026, the COMEX gold inventory was 33071598 troy ounces, a - 0.30% change from March 2, and the COMEX silver inventory was 355173837 troy ounces, a - 0.67% change from March 2 [3] 4. Interest Rates/Exchange Rates/Stock Market - On March 4, 2026, the US dollar/Chinese yuan central parity rate was 6.91, with a 0.05% change from March 3 [3] - On March 3, 2026, the US dollar index was 99.06, the 2 - year US Treasury yield was 3.51%, the 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.06%, the VIX was 23.57, the S&P 500 was 6816.63, and NYMEX crude oil was $74.80. Compared with March 2, the changes were 0.52%, 1.15%, 0.25%, 9.93%, - 0.94%, and 5.31% respectively [3] 5. Market Review - On March 4, the main contract of Shanghai gold futures closed down 3.1% to 1153.06 yuan per gram, and the main contract of Shanghai silver futures closed down 4.43% to 21854 yuan per kilogram [3] 6. Impact Analysis - The US Treasury Secretary said the crude oil market supply is sufficient, and the US will provide insurance for ships in the Gulf region, causing crude oil prices to fall and easing inflation concerns. The weakening of the US dollar index led to a rebound in precious metal prices after hitting the bottom [4] - Geopolitical conflicts are ongoing. The US Defense Secretary said the US - Iran conflict may last for 8 weeks or longer, and the US Treasury Secretary mentioned that a 158% tariff rate may take effect this week, which continues to support precious metal prices [4] - The increase of 63,000 in the US ADP employment in February, the largest increase since July last year, eases the risk of economic recession. The inconsistent hawkish stances of Fed officials also suppress precious metal prices to some extent [4] - For silver, although the inventory and position risks in September have been greatly alleviated, the SHFE inventory has fallen below 300 tons, and the New York inventory is still declining. The physical tight - supply structure has not been fully alleviated, so the fundamentals still support silver prices [4]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. dollar is strengthening against other currencies, particularly the euro and yen, amid the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, reaffirming its status as a safe haven in currency markets [1]. Group 1: Currency Performance - The dollar has shown significant strength against the euro since the onset of the Iran conflict [1]. - The trend of de-dollarization appears to be reversing as the dollar gains prominence in the current geopolitical climate [1]. Group 2: Market Implications - The ongoing crisis in the Middle East is contributing to the dollar's outperformance compared to its rivals, highlighting its role as a preferred currency during times of uncertainty [1].

Summary of Global Metals & Mining Conference Call Industry Overview - The focus is on the **Gold** sector within the **Global Metals & Mining** industry, with a bullish outlook for gold prices. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Gold Price Outlook**: The company has a street-high gold price outlook of **$2,000/oz** for 2024, with projections increasing to **$4,800/oz** for 2026 and **$6,100/oz** for 2030, reflecting a significant upward revision from previous estimates [1][4][12]. 2. **Drivers of Gold Demand**: Recent gold demand has been primarily driven by **central bank purchases** and **ETF flows**. Central bank purchases have remained elevated since 2022, particularly after geopolitical tensions, while ETF flows are seen as a swing component of institutional demand [3][19]. 3. **Central Bank Sentiment**: A survey indicated that **95%** of central banks expect their gold reserves to increase over the next year, with **43%** anticipating an increase in their own holdings. Over a five-year horizon, **76%** foresee a higher share of gold in total reserves [5][66]. 4. **Newmont Upgrade**: The company upgraded **Newmont** to **Outperform** with a price target of **$157/share**, citing a **26% increase** in EBITDA to **$21.9 billion** based on a bullish gold outlook [6][10]. 5. **Investment Implications**: The company maintains an **Outperform** rating on **Barrick Mining** and raises its price target from **$46.50** to **$62.50**. The EV/EBITDA multiple was adjusted from **5.50x** to **6.50x** [9]. 6. **Potential Risks**: Risks include a deceleration in central bank purchases, changes in real rates negatively impacting ETF flows, and potential geopolitical shifts that could reduce safe-haven demand [7]. Additional Important Insights 1. **Historical Context**: Since January 2022, gold prices have surged **173%**, from **$1,800/oz** to **$5,000/oz**, driven by robust central bank buying [15]. 2. **ETF Flows**: Inflows into gold ETFs have increased significantly since mid-2024, with **885 tonnes** added since January 2025, marking the strongest year-on-year inflow since 2020 [73][74]. 3. **Correlation Analysis**: There is a strong correlation between net demand from central banks and ETFs with gold price movements, indicating that periods of net inflows are associated with rising prices [48][49]. 4. **Long-term Trends**: The long-term nominal CAGR for gold since 1920 is **5.2%**, suggesting a stable growth trajectory for gold prices over time [35]. This summary encapsulates the key insights and projections regarding the gold market, highlighting the bullish sentiment and the factors influencing demand and pricing.

Industry Overview - Gold stocks have experienced significant growth, with gold prices surpassing $5,500 per ounce, driven by geopolitical tensions and central bank buying [1] - Gold rallied approximately 65% in 2025, with analysts suggesting further potential gains due to its historical performance during credit tightening periods [2] - Deutsche Bank indicates that the conditions for gold prices do not suggest a sustained reversal, contrasting current circumstances with past weaknesses [3] - Barclays strategists highlight the resilience of gold demand despite high prices, attributing it to geopolitical tensions and policy uncertainties [4] - Factors such as Federal Reserve easing and de-dollarization trends are expected to sustain gold demand into 2026 [5] Company Highlights Gold Fields Limited (NYSE:GFI) - Gold Fields reported strong 2025 results, with production at the upper end of guidance and costs within expected ranges [9] - The company’s adjusted free cash flow increased to $2.97 billion from $605 million in 2024, with normalized profit rising 119% to $2.68 billion [10] - A final dividend of R18.50 per share was declared, representing a 164% increase from the previous year, aligning with the company's policy to return 35% of free cash flow to shareholders [11] - Gold Fields operates nine mines globally, producing approximately 2 million gold-equivalent ounces annually [12] Centerra Gold Inc. (NYSE:CGAU) - Centerra Gold's board approved a quarterly dividend of C$0.07 per share, amounting to about $10.2 million, to be paid in March 2026 [13] - The company reported a 33% increase in fourth-quarter revenue to $401.6 million, with full-year revenue up 14% to $1.38 billion [15] - Adjusted net earnings surged 127% in the fourth quarter and 50% for the full year, with gold production expected to range between 250,000 and 280,000 ounces in 2026 [15][16] - Centerra Gold focuses on stable operating performance and disciplined cost management to enhance margins and generate strong cash flow [16]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Short - term: The escalation of the US - Iran conflict is expected to drive up precious metal prices due to increased safe - haven demand and inflation risks, though price fluctuations may occur due to weakening Fed rate - cut expectations [5][6]. - Medium - term: The precious metal prices may fluctuate, depending on the geopolitical situation and oil price changes [6]. - Long - term: The underlying logic of the precious metal bull market is solid. With the probability of Fed rate cuts, global geopolitical uncertainties, and the de - dollarization trend, the long - term strategy is to buy on dips [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Tracking - **Spot and Futures Prices**: On February 27, 2026, London gold spot was at $5185.77/ounce, London silver spot at $90.12/ounce, COMEX gold at $5202.80/ounce, and COMEX silver at $90.71/ounce. The prices of domestic gold and silver futures and spot also had corresponding values. Compared with February 26, gold prices generally decreased by about 0.1%, while silver prices increased by about 1.0% [5]. - **Price Spreads**: The spreads of gold and silver TD - SHFE active prices, as well as the spreads between domestic and foreign markets, changed. For example, the gold TD - SHFE active spread increased by 43.7% from February 26 to 27 [5]. 3.2 Position Data - **ETF Positions**: On February 27, the gold ETF - SPDR position was 1101.33 tons, up 0.31% from February 26. The silver ETF - SLV position was 15992.39823 tons, down 0.65% [5]. - **COMEX Non - commercial Positions**: The non - commercial long, short, and net long positions of COMEX gold and silver all had different degrees of change from February 26 to 27. For example, the COMEX gold non - commercial long position decreased by 0.84% [5]. 3.3 Inventory Data - **SHFE Inventories**: On February 27, SHFE gold inventory was 105060.00 kg, down 0.01% from February 26, and SHFE silver inventory was 306596.00 kg, down 11.48% [5]. - **COMEX Inventories**: On February 27, COMEX gold inventory was 33321135 troy ounces, down 0.50% from February 26, and COMEX silver inventory was 360332503 troy ounces, down 0.08% [5]. 3.4 Interest Rate/Exchange Rate/Stock Market - **Exchange Rate**: The USD/CNY central parity rate remained unchanged at 6.92 on February 27 compared with February 26 [5]. - **Interest Rate and Stock Index**: The US dollar index decreased by 0.14%, the 2 - year US Treasury yield decreased by 1.17%, the 10 - year US Treasury yield decreased by 1.24%, the VIX increased by 6.60%, the S&P 500 decreased by 0.43%, and NYMEX crude oil increased by 2.78% on February 27 compared with February 26 [5]. 3.5 Market Analysis - **Market Review**: Affected by the escalation of the US - Iran geopolitical tension, the safe - haven demand drove up precious metal prices in the night session on Friday. The main contract of Shanghai gold futures rose 1.31% to 1159.98 yuan/gram, and the main contract of Shanghai silver futures rose 6.95% to 23927 yuan/kg [5]. - **Influence Analysis**: The conflict between the US and Iran escalated over the weekend. Israel and the US launched an air strike on Iran, and Iran retaliated and closed the Strait of Hormuz. This may drive up oil prices, increase inflation risks, and support precious metal prices in the short term. However, it may also weaken the Fed's rate - cut expectations, causing price fluctuations [6]. - **Future Market Analysis**: Short - term safe - haven and inflation risks may support precious metal prices. Medium - term prices may fluctuate. Long - term, the precious metal prices are expected to rise, and the long - term strategy is to buy on dips [6].

Core Viewpoint - Market strategist Gareth Soloway warns that the next major U.S. equity downturn could lead to up to two decades of stagnation rather than a sharp crash followed by a quick rebound [1] Economic Trends - Countries that have historically been major buyers of U.S. Treasuries are reducing their exposure, with China’s pullback and broader sovereign diversification indicating a shift towards de-dollarization [2] - A sustained break below a key long-term support trend in the U.S. dollar could signal structural weakness, suggesting that reduced Treasury demand may persist as U.S. debt continues to grow [3] Market Outlook - Soloway likens the potential market outlook to Japan's post-1980s bubble era, predicting prolonged sideways trading with repeated drawdowns, and warns that new all-time highs may not materialize for at least a decade [3][4] - The market could experience down periods of 20%, 30%, or even 40%, but a sudden crash similar to the 1987 event is harder to predict [4] Impact on Sectors - The current environment is expected to be particularly damaging for retirement savers who rely on long-term capital gains, as persistent inflation combined with stagnant stocks could erode purchasing power [5] - Soloway is bearish on the housing market, citing affordability pressures and rising supply as baby boomers sell properties, predicting that real estate prices will remain flat or trend lower over the next two decades [7] Investment Strategy - Investors are advised to prioritize preserving purchasing power over seeking double-digit returns, with a focus on diversification into assets such as gold, silver, and Bitcoin [6] - Cash or short-term Treasury bills may provide stability during market drawdowns, while dividend-paying stocks could serve as a partial hedge against inflation [6]