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策略专题:牛市中的ETF资金变聪明了吗?
Tianfeng Securities· 2025-09-16 07:45
Group 1: Core Conclusions - The overall fund inflow of equity ETFs is inversely related to the market trend, influenced by broad-based ETFs [1][2] - After excluding broad-based ETFs, the turning point of ETF fund inflows lags behind the market trend by one month, reflecting the "dullness" of retail investors and the "muscle memory" formed in the later stages of a main upward trend [1][9] - Since the beginning of the year, net inflows have been relatively leading in technology growth, non-bank financials, and certain core assets [2][14] Group 2: ETF Fund Inflow Observations - Since the beginning of the year, equity ETFs have only achieved net inflows in January and April, with the Shanghai Composite Index returns in those months being negative [8] - During the rapid market rise from June to August, industry and thematic ETFs saw net inflows of 70 billion, 274 billion, and 484 billion respectively, while in September, despite market volatility, net inflows still reached 358 billion [2][9] - The net inflow of ETFs linked to indices exceeding 20 billion since the beginning of the year can be categorized into three types: technology growth, non-bank financials, and certain core assets [14] Group 3: Marginal Changes in ETF Pricing Power - Overall, there is no significant advantage in the stock price increase of individual stocks with high ETF fund inflows, and there is even a slight negative correlation [3][16] - The phenomenon of chasing gains by ETF funds is evident, with inflow patterns skewed towards the right side during confirmed upward trends [3][17] - From May to September, the marginal increase in ETF pricing power indicates that ETF funds are becoming "smarter" in this bull market [3][19]