沪指收盘上涨1.32%，沪深北三市合计成交额26723亿元 深圳商报记者 钟国斌 10月9日，A股市场强势上攻，上证指数突破3900点整数关。这也是自2015年8月以来，上证指数再次突 破3900点，创10年来新高。 截至收盘，沪指报3933.97点，上涨1.32%；深证成指报13725.56点，上涨1.47%；创业板指报3261.82 点，上涨0.73%。沪深北三市合计成交额26723亿元。 消息面上，外资持续加码中国资产。高盛数据显示，8月以来中国股票成为Prime业务中净买入最多的市 场，超90%外资机构计划增仓中国股市。 据记者统计，自去年9月以来，A股市场开启新一轮牛市行情，上证指数从2690点涨至3933点，累计涨 幅达46%；创业板指数涨幅超过100%。政策支持、资金流入及市场信心提升是主要推动因素。 节后A股迎来开门红，10月行情将如何运行？ 历史数据显示，2010年至2024年，15年间上证指数10月份平均涨幅为1.10%，其中有8次上涨，即10月 份上涨概率为53.33%，仅次于2月份约七成的上涨概率。 例如，2010年、2014年、2024年出现了"金九银十"行情，其中A股牛市期10月份 ...

（2）产险 COR：2025Q3 累计，我们预计中国财险的综合成本率（COR）同比 优化 1.7pt，至 96.5%，驱动因素：①费用率下降：非车险"报行合一"政策逐 步推进，降低公司的费用率水平，同时，在更为规范的竞争环境中，中国财险凭 借规模、品牌、渠道等优势，或进一步放大费用节省空间。②赔付率下降：今年 前三季度，全国自然灾害发生处于正常水平，但去年同期冰雪冻雨灾害影响较 大，造成公司的赔付成本较高。根据国家应急管理部发布的公告，2025 年 1-8 月，全国自然灾害造成的直接经济损失为 1258.2 亿元，同比减少 40.8%，2025 年 7-8 月，损失为 717.1 亿元，同比-39.9%，大灾影响明显减少。 证券研究报告 | 行业专题 | 非银金融 券商延续高增，险企保持韧性 ——2025 年非银金融行业三季报业绩前瞻 投资要点 业绩前瞻 2025Q3 累计，预计非银行业业绩延续景气，寿险 NBV 平均增速 32.6%，投资端 仍有韧性，证券行业净利润同比增长 62.8%。 保险行业业绩前瞻：负债端景气，投资端有韧性 （1）寿险 NBV：2025Q3 累计，我们预计主要上市险企的 NBV 同比 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the investment value of the non-bank financial sector, particularly in the brokerage and insurance segments, suggesting a favorable investment environment moving forward [4][5]. Core Insights - The brokerage sector has shown resilience despite recent adjustments, with a projected double-digit year-on-year profit growth for Q3 2025. The report highlights that the fundamentals of the brokerage sector remain strong, with continued capital inflow and a significant increase in trading volumes [4][7]. - The insurance sector is experiencing a temporary decline, attributed to previous overperformance and a lack of internal catalysts. However, the report emphasizes the long-term investment potential, especially with the recent capital movements and the ongoing trend of insurance capital entering the A-share market [4][9]. - The report anticipates new policy measures from the upcoming State Council meeting on September 22, which could provide additional support to market confidence and stability [4][16]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4501.92 with a slight decline of 0.44%. The non-bank index fell by 3.66%, with the brokerage and insurance sectors reporting declines of 3.51% and 4.76%, respectively [7][9]. Non-Bank Sector Data - As of September 19, 2025, the average daily trading volume in the stock market was approximately 25,181.36 billion yuan, reflecting an increase of 8.23% week-on-week. The margin trading balance reached 24,024.65 billion yuan, up 28.8% from the end of 2024 [15][32]. Key Announcements - Ping An Life has increased its stake in China Pacific Insurance (H) to over 10%, indicating strong confidence in the insurance sector's investment value. The report suggests that this move reflects a broader positive outlook among insurance companies regarding their peers [4][20]. - China Pacific Insurance announced the completion of its convertible bond issuance, which is expected to enhance its capital structure and support future growth [4][20]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on three main investment lines within the brokerage sector: top-tier institutions benefiting from improved competitive dynamics, firms with significant earnings elasticity, and those with strong international business capabilities [4][9]. - In the insurance sector, the report suggests maintaining positions in major players like China Life, China Pacific, and Ping An, given their current undervaluation and potential for recovery [4][9].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the non-bank financial industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The report highlights a significant increase in the profitability of listed brokerages, with a net profit of 102.1 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 63.1% [5][13] - The report emphasizes the strong performance of retail brokerage and proprietary trading, driven by a bullish market, with an annualized ROE of 7.81% [5][12] - The report suggests that the brokerage sector's fundamentals are favorable, with low valuations and institutional holdings, making it a high-risk-reward investment opportunity [5][14] Summary by Sections Brokerage Business - The brokerage business saw a year-on-year revenue increase of 39%, with retail brokerage income growing by 36% [30][31] - The average daily trading volume in the stock market increased by 66%, contributing to the growth in brokerage income [31] - The report anticipates continued high demand in the brokerage business due to a recovering market and low performance base in the third quarter [30][31] Investment Banking - Investment banking revenues increased by 11% year-on-year, with a notable surge in H-share IPOs, which grew by 719% [6][34] - The report notes that the A-share IPO market remains under strict regulation, but the relaxation of policies for tech companies is expected to improve the investment banking outlook [6][34] Asset Management - The asset management segment experienced a slight decline in net income, down 5% year-on-year, with a total asset management scale increase of 1% [40][48] - The report indicates that the market for non-monetary and equity funds has grown, with total assets under management reaching 20.2 trillion yuan and 8.4 trillion yuan respectively, reflecting year-on-year increases of 13% and 27% [48][49]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve has decided to lower the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to between 4.00% and 4.25%, marking the first rate cut since December 2024 [1][3] - The recent job growth in the U.S. has been significantly below expectations, prompting the Fed to take this action, with further rate cuts anticipated in upcoming meetings [3] - Following the announcement, the U.S. stock market initially rose but then reversed gains, with the S&P 500 index turning negative and the Nasdaq down by 0.5% [3] Group 2 - The U.S. dollar index fell to 96.22, the lowest level since February 2022, indicating a weakening dollar [6] - The Fed's median projections suggest a further 50 basis points cut in 2025, and 25 basis points cuts in both 2026 and 2027, with expected rates of 3.6%, 3.4%, and 3.1% respectively [6] - The rate cut is expected to increase money supply, lower loan rates, and encourage consumption and investment, positively impacting economic growth and market liquidity [6] Group 3 - Analysts predict that the Fed's rate cut may trigger a global wave of central bank rate cuts, potentially benefiting the A-share market in China and leading to a second wave of market rally [9] - Historical analysis shows that during previous Fed rate cuts, growth sectors and interest-sensitive industries in both A-shares and Hong Kong stocks have benefited from lower interest rates [9] - The Chinese bond market may attract foreign investment due to reduced pressure from U.S.-China interest rate differentials, enhancing the appeal of Chinese government and policy financial bonds [10]

Group 1: Stock Index Futures Market Overview - The four major index futures contracts experienced an overall increase last week, with the CSI 500 index futures showing the largest gain of 3.83%, while the SSE 50 index futures had the smallest increase of 1.00% [3][11] - The average trading volume for all contracts decreased compared to the previous week, with the IH contract seeing the largest decline of 24.59% and the IC contract the smallest at 5.41% [3][11] - As of last Friday's close, the annualized basis rates for the IF, IC, IM, and IH contracts were -2.18%, -8.76%, -13.22%, and 0.11% respectively, indicating a deepening of the discount for IF and IM, while IC's discount narrowed and IH turned to a premium [3][11][12] Group 2: Market Expectations and Strategies - In the absence of changes to index futures trading rules, the correlation between basis changes and dividend impacts, as well as investor trading sentiment, remains high [4][13] - The market sentiment is generally optimistic, with 12 brokerage firms believing that the A-share market is still in a bull or slow bull phase, and 9 firms indicating that expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts and foreign capital inflows will improve liquidity [5][30] - There is a consensus among 12 brokerage firms regarding the positive outlook for the AI industry chain, non-bank financials, and gold sectors, while some firms express differing views on market styles and cycles [5][31] Group 3: Dividend Forecasts and Impacts - Following September, dividends are expected to taper off, having a minimal impact on the four major index futures [4][12] - The estimated impact of dividends on the main contracts for the CSI 300, CSI 500, SSE 50, and CSI 1000 indices for September is projected to be zero, with a slight impact of 0.04 on the CSI 500 quarterly contract [4][12] Group 4: Arbitrage Opportunities - The report indicates that currently, there are no arbitrage opportunities for the IF main contract, as the required basis rates for both long and short positions do not meet the necessary thresholds [4][12] - The cross-period price difference for the contracts is within historical normal ranges, suggesting a stable market environment for potential arbitrage strategies [12][13]

焦点公司方面，阿里巴巴-W（09988.HK）高开2.74%，报157.7港元，再创本轮行情新高。 9月17日早盘，港股市场小幅高开。截至发稿，恒生指数报26554点，高开0.44%；恒生科技指数报6133点，高开0.91%。 东方财富证券表示，美联储降息对A股、港股影响明显，结构上指向受益于低利率估值扩张的成长板块和其他利率敏感型行业，且港股弹性更大。具备景气 支撑和业绩想象空间的AI算力/半导体、创新药，逐渐从"外卖战"抽身走向AI叙事的恒生科技/港股互联网，以及催化频频的固态电池、机器人或将继续受 益，有色金属在降息初期预计也将有所表现。若我国货币政策跟进宽松，非银金融也可以高看一线。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） 消息面，阿里巴巴-W公告，已于9月16日完成发行本金总额约为32亿美元于2032年到期零息可转换优先票据，该等票据乃发行予依据美国证券法下的S条例 进行离岸交易的某些非美国人士。阿里巴巴集团计划将票据发行的募集资金净额用于一般公司用途，战略重点是增强其云基础设施能力及国际商业业务营 运。票据的初始转换率为每1000美元本金金额的票据可转换5.1773股美国存托股，相当于初始转换价格为每股美国存 ...

Market Overview - The US stock market indices closed lower on September 16, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average down by 0.35% and the S&P 500 down by 0.12% [2] - The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index rose by 1.05%, reaching 8540 points, marking a new high since February 2022, with a year-to-date increase of over 26% [1][2] Technology Sector Performance - Major tech stocks showed mixed results, with Tesla increasing by 2.38%, while Google, Microsoft, and Nvidia experienced slight declines [3] - The Nasdaq 100 index saw a minor decrease of 0.03%, while the WenDe US Tech Giants Index rose by 0.31% [2] Chinese Stocks - Chinese stocks performed strongly, with several stocks like ROBO.AI and INTERCONT seeing significant gains of 42.33% and 29.23% respectively [4] - Notable increases were also observed in other Chinese tech stocks, with Baidu up by 5.04% and NIO up by 3% [5] Gold Market - The gold market experienced a surge, with spot gold prices rising above $3700 per ounce, marking a historical high and a year-to-date increase of $1076 per ounce [5] Federal Reserve's Interest Rate Decisions - The Federal Reserve is expected to announce a rate cut, with market predictions suggesting a reduction of at least 25 basis points [6][7] - There is a possibility of dissent within the Fed, which could lead to a more cautious approach to future rate cuts [8] Impact on Chinese Assets - The anticipated Fed rate cut may trigger a global trend of central bank rate reductions, potentially benefiting the A-share market in China [9] - Analysts suggest that sectors sensitive to interest rates, such as AI, semiconductors, and innovative pharmaceuticals, may see positive impacts from a lower interest rate environment [10]

Group 1: Core Conclusions - The overall fund inflow of equity ETFs is inversely related to the market trend, influenced by broad-based ETFs [1][2] - After excluding broad-based ETFs, the turning point of ETF fund inflows lags behind the market trend by one month, reflecting the "dullness" of retail investors and the "muscle memory" formed in the later stages of a main upward trend [1][9] - Since the beginning of the year, net inflows have been relatively leading in technology growth, non-bank financials, and certain core assets [2][14] Group 2: ETF Fund Inflow Observations - Since the beginning of the year, equity ETFs have only achieved net inflows in January and April, with the Shanghai Composite Index returns in those months being negative [8] - During the rapid market rise from June to August, industry and thematic ETFs saw net inflows of 70 billion, 274 billion, and 484 billion respectively, while in September, despite market volatility, net inflows still reached 358 billion [2][9] - The net inflow of ETFs linked to indices exceeding 20 billion since the beginning of the year can be categorized into three types: technology growth, non-bank financials, and certain core assets [14] Group 3: Marginal Changes in ETF Pricing Power - Overall, there is no significant advantage in the stock price increase of individual stocks with high ETF fund inflows, and there is even a slight negative correlation [3][16] - The phenomenon of chasing gains by ETF funds is evident, with inflow patterns skewed towards the right side during confirmed upward trends [3][17] - From May to September, the marginal increase in ETF pricing power indicates that ETF funds are becoming "smarter" in this bull market [3][19]

Group 1 - The report anticipates that A-shares will consolidate in September to digest previous gains, while Hong Kong stocks are expected to receive a short-term boost due to easing liquidity pressures and a stronger RMB [1][8] - A-shares experienced sharp volatility, with the SSE Composite Index up 1.5% and the ChiNext Index rising 2.1%, while Hong Kong stocks saw a catch-up rally driven by U.S. AI stocks, with the Hang Seng Index gaining 3.8% and the Hang Seng Tech Index up 5.3% [1][8] - Following dovish signals from Powell at Jackson Hole, gold rebounded over 9%, but U.S. inflation data confirmed rate-cut expectations, leading to gold entering a consolidation phase [2][9] Group 2 - The Ministry of Finance plans to pre-allocate part of the 2026 local government debt quota, indicating a more proactive approach compared to previous practices [3][10] - August financial data showed weak credit demand, highlighting the need for stronger policy support, while the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology introduced a growth stabilization plan for the auto sector [3][10] - In A-shares, tech stocks saw severe volatility at elevated levels, while real estate stocks strengthened, with a weekly increase of 6% following the easing of housing restrictions in major cities [4][11] Group 3 - Hong Kong stocks maintained stable liquidity, with HIBOR remaining stable and the RMB appreciating against the dollar, although potential dollar rebounds could weaken this support [5][11] - The AH premium index fell sharply to around 120 after adjustments, with significant southbound capital inflows, particularly into Alibaba, which attracted HKD 22 billion this week [5][11] - The report suggests that U.S. tech stocks rallied on strong Q3 earnings, driving rebounds in A-share tech and Hong Kong stocks, but warns that September trading is likely to remain choppy due to renewed U.S.-China trade frictions [6][13]