非银金融 相关研究报告 《并购实现资本金跃升，综合实力向 国际一流投行迈进—中金公司筹划收 购 东 兴 证 券 、 信 达 证 券 点 评 》 -2025.11.20 《3 季度险企权益配置提升明显，积极 备战开门红 —行业周报》-2025.11.16 《券商保险 3 季报超预期，公募基准 新 规 防 范 风 格 漂 移 — 行 业 周 报 》 -2025.11.2 开门红展望乐观，人身险产品费用分摊指引发布 2025 年 11 月 23 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 数据来源：聚源 -24% -12% 0% 12% 24% 36% 2024-11 2025-03 2025-07 非银金融 沪深300 ——行业周报 | 高超（分析师） | 卢崑（分析师） | | --- | --- | | gaochao1@kysec.cn | lukun@kysec.cn | | 证书编号：S0790520050001 | 证书编号：S0790524040002 | 周观点：开门红展望乐观，人身险产品费用分摊指引发布 本周证券板块/保险板块分别下跌 4.89%/3.03%，股市整体调整带来非银金融板块 承压，保险 ...

Investment Rating - The insurance industry is rated as "Recommended" [1] Core Insights - As of the end of Q3 2025, the allocation of non-bank financial sector in active funds is 1.20%, which is underweight by 8.48 percentage points compared to the total market capitalization of the CSI 300 [1] - The securities sector allocation has slightly increased to 0.41%, but remains significantly underweight by 4.28 percentage points compared to the CSI 300 [2] - The insurance sector's allocation has decreased from 0.75% at the end of Q2 to 0.61% at the end of Q3, underweight by 4.19 percentage points compared to the CSI 300 [3] - The multi-financial sector shows a marginal improvement with an allocation of 0.18%, up by 0.04 percentage points [4] - The report suggests that the current low allocation to the non-bank sector presents a value opportunity, especially with the expected market activity and reforms [5] Summary by Sections Non-Bank Financial Sector - The allocation in active funds is 1.20%, down by 0.06 percentage points from the previous quarter, and underweight by 8.48 percentage points compared to the CSI 300 [1] Securities Sector - The allocation is 0.41%, an increase of 0.04 percentage points, but still underweight by 4.28 percentage points compared to the CSI 300 [2] - Notable increases in holdings for leading firms such as Huatai Securities and Citic Securities, with significant percentage increases in both share quantity and market value [2] Insurance Sector - The allocation decreased to 0.61%, down from 0.75%, underweight by 4.19 percentage points compared to the CSI 300 [3] - Key stocks include China Ping An and China Life, with varying changes in shareholding and market value [3] Multi-Financial Sector - The allocation is 0.18%, showing a slight increase of 0.04 percentage points [4] - Significant increases in holdings for companies like Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing and Bohai Leasing [4] Investment Recommendations - The report emphasizes the potential for value in the non-bank financial sector due to its current underweight status and the anticipated market developments [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the non-bank financial sector [1] Core Views - The insurance sector is expected to benefit from economic recovery and rising interest rates, with a significant increase in the sales proportion of savings products [44] - The securities sector is anticipated to experience new growth points due to transformation and favorable market conditions [44] - The multi-financial sector is entering a stable transition period, with trust companies focusing on management enhancement and product innovation [36] Summary by Sections Non-Bank Financial Sector Performance - In the recent five trading days (November 5-9, 2025), only the insurance sector outperformed the CSI 300 index, rising by 1.23%, while the overall non-bank financial sector declined by 0.17% [9][10] - Year-to-date performance shows the insurance sector up by 14.76%, multi-financial up by 11.49%, and securities up by 6.63%, all trailing the CSI 300 index which is up by 18.90% [10][11] Securities Sector Insights - Trading volume remains high, with the average daily stock trading amount reaching 23,661 billion yuan in November, a year-on-year increase of 10.44% [16] - The margin financing balance as of November 6 was 24,988 billion yuan, up 39.83% year-on-year [16] - The average price-to-book (PB) ratio for the securities industry is projected at 1.3x for 2025E, indicating potential for quality brokers to benefit from active capital market policies [22] Insurance Sector Insights - The insurance industry reported a 10.2% year-on-year increase in original premium income for the first nine months of 2025, totaling 40,895 billion yuan [24] - The third quarter saw a 25% year-on-year growth in life insurance premiums, although September's growth rate fell to -4.2% due to product switching [24][29] - The insurance sector's valuation is currently at 0.58-0.95 times 2025E P/EV, which is considered low historically, supporting an "Overweight" rating [29] Multi-Financial Sector Insights - The trust industry is projected to have total assets of 29.56 trillion yuan by the end of 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 23.58% [30] - The futures market saw a trading volume of 7.70 billion contracts in September, with a transaction value of 71.50 trillion yuan, marking a 33.16% year-on-year increase [37] - The report suggests that innovation in risk management will be a key focus for the futures industry moving forward [43] Industry Ranking and Key Company Recommendations - The recommended ranking for the non-bank financial sector is insurance > securities > other multi-financial services, with key companies including China Ping An, New China Life, China Pacific Insurance, CITIC Securities, Tonghuashun, and Jiufang Zhitu Holdings [44]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing significant volatility, particularly in the TMT sector, with a notable decline in stock prices following the release of major positive news, indicating a potential shift in market sentiment and investment strategies [3][5][16]. TMT Sector Analysis - The TMT sector has seen a public fund holding ratio rise to 40%, nearing historical highs, which raises concerns about potential market corrections if funds are reallocated [6][8]. - CPO stocks, led by companies like 中际旭创 (E-Zhongtian), have reported strong earnings but still faced sharp declines, suggesting that high valuations and profit-taking are significant risks [5][6]. - Institutional investors have been withdrawing from the CPO sector, with a net outflow of over 18 billion in the past month, while reallocating funds to cyclical sectors like lithium batteries and non-ferrous metals [8][10]. Market Dynamics - The current market environment is characterized by a lack of consensus on new investment themes, with five potential directions emerging, including future technologies and high-dividend stocks [10][12]. - The ability of AI software and innovative pharmaceuticals to absorb capital exiting the CPO sector will be crucial for market stabilization [14]. - The performance of cyclical stocks, such as lithium batteries, will also play a critical role in determining the overall market trend [14]. Investment Strategy - Investors are advised to maintain a cautious stance, particularly avoiding high-priced CPO stocks, as the market may be entering a correction phase similar to previous downturns in other sectors [14][16].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The third quarter earnings forecasts for listed insurance companies have exceeded expectations, indicating a robust performance in the non-bank financial sector, which is characterized by both offensive and defensive capabilities [5] - The insurance sector has shown significant growth despite high base comparisons, with investment income expected to surpass market expectations due to stock market gains [6] - The brokerage sector is anticipated to maintain high profitability, with low valuations presenting strategic investment opportunities [5][6] Summary by Sections Insurance Sector - Listed insurance companies have reported third-quarter earnings forecasts that indicate a year-on-year increase of 50% to 70% for China Life, 45% to 65% for New China Life, and 40% to 60% for China Property Insurance [6] - The stabilization of long-term interest rates and reduced pressure on net assets are expected to improve the return on equity (ROE) for insurance companies, leading to a potential recovery in price-to-book (PB) valuations [6] - Recommended stocks include China Pacific Insurance and Ping An Insurance due to their undervaluation and high potential for investment returns [6] Brokerage Sector - The number of new margin trading accounts opened in September reached a record high of 205,400, reflecting a 288% year-on-year increase [6] - The brokerage sector's net profit for the first three quarters is expected to grow by 53.1%, with the third quarter showing a sequential increase of 1% [6] - Recommended stocks in this sector include Guotai Junan Securities, Huatai Securities, and GF Securities, which are expected to benefit from their respective strengths in retail and institutional business [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive investment outlook for the non-bank financial sector, highlighting strong performance expectations for Q3 earnings across various companies [5][36]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes that the Q3 performance of the equity market is expected to solidify the earnings of leading insurance companies, with the Shanghai Composite Index showing a Q3 increase of 12.73% [1]. - Companies like China Pacific Insurance and New China Life are projected to see significant profit growth, with net profits expected to rise by 40%-60% and 45%-65% respectively for the first three quarters of 2025 [2][5]. - The report notes that the overall performance of the securities sector is also expected to improve, driven by active trading and increased business income from wealth management and investment transactions [3][5]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The report indicates a mixed performance in the non-bank sector, with the insurance index rising by 3.65% while the securities sector saw declines [9][10]. Securities Sector - The report highlights that the brokerage business remains robust, with a total trading volume of 10.87 trillion yuan in the week ending October 17, 2025, despite a 15.86% decrease from the previous week [17]. - The report also notes a significant increase in margin trading balances, which rose by 52.53% year-on-year [17]. Insurance Sector - The report indicates that major insurance companies are expected to report strong premium growth, with New China Life's premiums expected to increase by 19% year-on-year [33]. Liquidity Tracking - The report discusses the liquidity situation, noting a net withdrawal of 4.979 billion yuan in the week due to central bank operations, with mixed movements in interest rates [28]. Industry News and Company Announcements - The report includes various company announcements, such as significant profit forecasts from major players like Dongwu Securities and New China Life, indicating a positive outlook for the sector [33][36]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on key insurance companies such as Sunshine Insurance, China Taiping, and major securities firms like CITIC Securities and Huatai Securities for potential investment opportunities [5][37].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the non-bank financial industry is "Positive" (first-time rating) [4] Core Viewpoints - The non-bank financial sector has underperformed compared to the overall A-share market, with a year-to-date increase of 10.6% as of October 14, 2025, while the Wind All A Index has grown by 23.5%. However, the sector is expected to present investment opportunities driven by performance and changes in market preferences [4] - Strong third-quarter earnings expectations are anticipated to drive valuation growth, particularly in the insurance sector, where companies like New China Life Insurance are expected to see a net profit increase of 45%-65% year-on-year [5][6] - The report highlights a relative "mismatch" between performance and valuation, suggesting that the insurance companies' equity holdings have significantly increased, which will positively impact their investment income and net profit [5][6] Summary by Sections Insurance Sector - New China Life Insurance's net profit for the first three quarters of 2025 is expected to grow by 45%-65% compared to the same period in 2024, exceeding market expectations [6] - Major insurance companies have seen substantial growth in their equity holdings, with China Life, Ping An, and China Pacific's equity and equity fund holdings increasing significantly from June 2024 to June 2025 [6][9] - The PEV valuation points for China Life, Ping An, and China Pacific are at 45.2%, 56.3%, and 62.1% respectively, indicating potential for further valuation improvement supported by regulatory policies and market conditions [6][9] Brokerage Sector - The brokerage sector is expected to benefit from an active equity capital market in Q3 2025, with a 213% year-on-year increase in average daily trading volume and a 56% increase in average margin financing balance [7] - The current PB ratio for the brokerage industry is approximately 1.42 times, which is at the 61% percentile since 2020, indicating a favorable valuation environment [7] Market Preference Changes - Increased global political and economic uncertainties may lead to a shift from high-valuation to lower-valuation sectors, with the financial industry potentially serving as a medium for such transitions [8] - Historical performance indicates that the non-bank financial sector has shown strong performance during periods of rising risk appetite, suggesting a potential rebound in the near future [8]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Recommended" [5] Core Views - The report indicates that the non-bank financial sector is expected to serve as a stabilizing force amid short-term market fluctuations [1] - The report highlights a significant increase in trading activity, with A-share average daily trading volume reaching 26,030 billion yuan, a 12.5% increase from the previous period and a 10.3% increase year-on-year [1][17] - The report anticipates continued improvement in the brokerage sector's performance, with a notable increase in trading volume and a recovery in equity financing [3][15] Summary by Sections 1. Non-Bank Financial Weekly Insights - The non-bank financial Shenwan index rose by 0.50%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.01 percentage points, ranking 15th among all primary industries [2][14] - The securities sector increased by 0.49%, while the insurance sector rose by 0.73%. In contrast, the diversified finance, internet finance, and fintech sectors saw declines of 0.31%, 0.35%, and 1.55%, respectively [2][14] 1.1. Brokerage Sector - The report predicts a sustained increase in the brokerage sector's performance, with average daily trading volumes for Q1, Q2, and Q3 of 2025 being 15,225 billion, 12,619 billion, and 21,086 billion yuan, respectively, showing year-on-year increases of 71%, 52%, and 213% [3][15] - The report notes a recovery in equity financing, with the number of IPOs, additional issuances, and convertible bonds in Q3 2025 being 28, 43, and 53, respectively, raising funds of 379.715 billion, 883.310 billion, and 155.327 billion yuan [3][15] 1.2. Insurance Sector - A new regulation on non-auto insurance business was released, aiming to optimize assessment mechanisms and strengthen rate management, which is expected to enhance the profitability and service quality of insurance companies [4][16] - The regulation is anticipated to address long-standing issues in the non-auto insurance market, such as low rates and high costs, and to promote rational competition [4][16] 2. Market Indicators - The average daily trading volume in A-shares for the week was 26,030 billion yuan, reflecting a 12.5% increase from the previous week and a 10.3% increase year-on-year [1][17] - As of October 9, 2025, the margin trading balance was 24,455.50 billion yuan, a 0.60% increase from the previous period and a 56.06% increase compared to the average level in 2024 [1][17] 3. Industry News - The Beijing Stock Exchange has transitioned to a new "920" code system for all listed companies, marking a significant step in establishing its independent market identity [40] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission is focusing on deepening reforms in the capital market, particularly through the Sci-Tech Innovation Board and the Growth Enterprise Market [41]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the non-bank financial sector, indicating an "Overweight" rating for the industry, suggesting it will outperform the overall market [4][55]. Core Insights - The report highlights strong growth in the brokerage sector, with a significant increase in new A-share accounts and trading volumes, indicating a robust market environment. The net profit for the brokerage sector is expected to show high year-on-year growth for the first nine months of 2025 [4]. - The insurance sector is undergoing regulatory changes aimed at improving profitability, particularly in non-auto insurance, which is expected to benefit leading companies in the industry [4]. - The report identifies three main investment themes in the brokerage sector: 1) Stronger institutions benefiting from improved competition, 2) Brokerages with high earnings elasticity, and 3) Companies with strong international business capabilities [4]. Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.47% during the period from September 29 to October 10, 2025, while the non-bank index increased by 3.18%. The brokerage sector saw a rise of 4.42%, while the insurance sector increased by 0.89% [7]. - The average daily trading volume for the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges reached 26,034.09 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 56.08% [15][31]. Non-Bank Industry Data - As of October 10, 2025, the financing balance in the margin trading market was 24,455.47 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 31.2% [15]. - The report notes that the average daily trading volume for the first nine months of 2025 was 26,034.09 billion yuan, indicating a vibrant trading environment [31]. Regulatory Developments - The Financial Regulatory Bureau has implemented a new framework for non-auto insurance, focusing on improving underwriting profitability and establishing stricter fee management and compliance measures [4][17]. - The report mentions the central bank's liquidity measures, including significant net injections through various monetary policy tools, which aim to maintain market liquidity [16][19].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook on the non-bank financial sector [1] Core Views - The report highlights a continuation of strong growth in the brokerage sector, with a significant increase in net profits expected for the first nine months of 2025. Key metrics include a 61% year-on-year increase in new A-share accounts and a 203% increase in average daily stock trading volume in September 2025 [2][5] - The brokerage sector is currently undervalued, with a price-to-book (PB) ratio of 1.48, placing it in the 47.8th percentile over the past decade [2] - The report notes a favorable market environment supporting continued high growth in brokerage performance, with specific recommendations for leading firms and those with strong international business capabilities [2][7] Summary by Sections Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.47% during the period from September 29 to October 10, 2025, while the non-bank index increased by 3.18%. The brokerage, insurance, and diversified financial sectors reported gains of 4.42%, 0.89%, and 0.52%, respectively [5][6] Non-Bank Sector Insights - The report indicates that the insurance sector is benefiting from the implementation of a "de-involution" policy framework for non-auto insurance, which is expected to improve underwriting profitability for leading firms [2][16] - Specific investment recommendations include firms that are expected to benefit from improved competitive dynamics and those with strong earnings elasticity [2][7] Key Data Tracking - As of October 10, 2025, the average daily trading volume in the stock market was 26,034.09 billion yuan, reflecting an 18.99% increase from the previous period [14][32] - The report also tracks significant metrics such as the balance of margin financing and securities lending, which stood at 24,455.47 billion yuan as of October 9, 2025, marking a 31.2% increase from the end of 2024 [14][39]