Market Trends & Global Economy - China is intensifying its scrutiny of American tech firms, initiating an anti-monopoly probe into Qualcomm, leading to a stock decrease of over 2% [2] - The US government shutdown continues, impacting federal employees (around 750,000 furloughed) and potentially delaying key economic reports [3][11] - Middle East peace deal impacts oil prices, with a decrease of around 16% due to fading risk premiums, while gold prices recovered to above $4,000 [6][7] - The dollar is near a two-month high, despite a decline earlier in the year, with analysts at ING suggesting this rally isn't justified by US fundamentals [11][12][13] Monetary Policy & Economic Indicators - The Federal Reserve is under scrutiny, with investors awaiting insights from Chicago Fed President Austin Goulby regarding potential rate cut adjustments due to recent data or the government shutdown [8][9] - Preliminary consumer sentiment for October is expected to decrease to 54, indicating reduced confidence in personal finances due to inflation and job market concerns [10] - The market is pricing in Fed rate cuts, potentially weakening the dollar further, with Euro dollar target by the end of the year is 120 [16] Earnings Season & Financial Metrics - Earnings season is approaching, emphasizing the importance of understanding key financial terms like revenue, net income, EPS, GAAP, non-GAAP, and free cash flow [19][20][21][22] - Companies exceeding analyst expectations (a beat) isn't always bullish, and future guidance often matters more than historical performance [23][24] - Bullish signals include beating revenue and EPS with healthy margins, positive cash flows, stock buyback announcements, and increasing orders [25][26] - Bearish signals include missing sales or EPS targets, cutting future guidance, shrinking margins, and questionable non-GAAP adjustments [27][28] Trending Stocks & AI Bubble Concerns - Levi Strauss's stock is falling despite raising its full-year outlook due to margin pressure and potential tariff costs, down over 6% [32] - BBVA Argentina is rising after the US Treasury confirmed a $20 billion program to buy Argentinian pesos [33][34] - Rigetti is surging as speculative AI names rebound, up over 80% this quarter, but analysts remain cautious due to cash burn [35] - SoftBank is in the red, down over 3%, after announcing a $54 billion deal to buy ABB's robotics unit, raising concerns about leveraged debt and high valuations in the AI sector [37] AI Market Dynamics - Concerns are rising about an AI bubble, with companies like Oracle taking on debt to fuel growth and OpenAI aggressively pursuing deals despite negative free cash flow [41][42][43] - Potential triggers for the AI bubble to burst include smaller entities in the AI ecosystem (neoclouds, special purpose vehicles) facing financial difficulties due to debt [44] Consumer Trends & Commodity Prices - Chocolate prices are increasing due to rising cocoa prices, driven by weather-related production issues in West Africa, US tariffs (up to 25% on key producers), and rising demand [45][46] - Bitcoin is sliding, trading around $1215,000 after being above $126,000 earlier in the week [48]

Joining us this morning, City research director of US equity strategy, Drew Credits with us. Drew, welcome back. Good to see you. >> Hey, good to see you, Carl.>> I got to say, um, making your way through September with no major hiccups on the headline uh, indexes kind of has the desks today saying maybe we averted weak seasonality and we can look forward to an up Q4. What do you think. >> Yeah, it's funny.It's going to be very dependent on the earning season. to us the the pressure's actually grown with a ...

[Music] We've got the major indexes sitting near record highs, even the small cap Russell 2000. The S&P 500 alone has added add added $16 trillion in market cap since the April lows. And meanwhile, the Fed is cutting again.And earning season is about to start, but one of the biggest supports for stocks is fading right now, the stock buyback bid. And that's what we're digging into on today's stocks in translation. First, a quick definition.A stock buyback or repurchase is when a company uses cash to buy its ...

So, will all of next week's events help stocks keep their records rolling. Are we in for a reckoning. >> All right, that was a little dramatic.You know, you know what I mean, though, Karen. The setup >> is not necessarily great. >> No, I don't love the setup going in, right.So, you have this levitation into earning season for the Mag Seven. So, we had one, we had Alphabet, that was good. We saw that.Next week, we're going to get a whole lot more. I don't love the setup going in. Although I am heavily long t ...

So Jack, um, real short-term tactical stuff here. You did see this fade in the indexes here. We're at highs, you know, for for the major indexes.The atmospheric conditions seem pretty favorable here. What's your read on on what we're seeing. Yeah, I mean, I think right now it's a pretty quiet data, pretty quiet week from a data perspective.There aren't a lot of policy headlines hitting us, at least not expected to this week. You know, all markets can really focus in on is this earning season. And the earnin ...

Investment Strategy - During earning season, a stock decline is often wrongly perceived negatively, potentially creating buying opportunities [1] - When a stock declines after earnings, investors should first review the conference call transcript and use chatbots to identify potential missed issues [10] - If the analysis is positive, consider buying on weakness, as the decline is unlikely to last [11] - Pyramid buying, gradually increasing the investment as the stock goes lower, can be a solid strategy [6] Goldman Sachs Analysis - Goldman Sachs' stock is considered cheap by many, including its alumni, despite sophisticated valuation metrics [3] - CEO David Solin's efforts have transformed Goldman Sachs into a more consistent earnings generator [5] - The company's blowout quarter was met with an initial stock decline, which was viewed as a buying opportunity [6] - Goldman Sachs experienced its best trading quarter in history, with strong wealth management and improving M&A and IPO activity [8] - The market may re-evaluate Goldman Sachs with a higher price-to-earnings multiple, potentially propelling the stock higher [5][8]

Market Resilience & Investor Sentiment - Despite new tariff announcements weighing down the market (Dow down 279 points, S&P down 0.33%, NASDAQ down 0.22%), stocks are holding up well, indicating market resilience [1] - Individual investors remain undeterred by tariff news, showing strong demand for stocks [2] Upcoming Economic & Earnings Season - The market anticipates new tariffs and potential penalties against sovereign states [3] - Focus shifts to earning season, starting with financials [3][4] - New tariffs from the White House are expected, along with potential actions regarding Russia, which could affect the oil market; expectation that oil prices will decrease [4] Financial Institutions & Performance - The performance of financial institutions is under scrutiny, particularly regarding loan losses and spending slowdown [5] - JP Morgan, led by CEO Jamie Dimon, is a key focus [5] - Wells Fargo, now free from asset cap problems, is also of significant interest [6] - Despite what Croup's CEO Jane Frasier says, analysts are expected to raise price targets and praise the bank [6]