to show you why retail isn't really here, right. To kind of explain like, hey, the reason social interest is at zero like it was back in 2019 is because Main Street's hurting. And in order for Main Street not to be hurting, we need to we need for them not to be so worried about the labor market. We need them to not be so worried about inflation.Um, we need lower rates. But the issue is that over a long enough period of time, the only way the politicians know to solve our issues is to print more money. So ye ...

A downturn would expose vulnerabilities in today’s economic and geopolitical landscape, by further weakening America’s hegemony, undermining government budgets and worsening protectionist instincts https://t.co/l5mD5206Uz ...

If a car is headed downhill, and swerves left, and then right, and then further left, and further to the right, it doesn't actually arrest the descent. However, all the swerving may make the car crash faster.The G7 is like that car. It's the descending world. https://t.co/nAN6ntxgPGRay Dalio (@RayDalio):History shows us that having too much debt during an economic downturn leads to a classic, self-reinforcing cycle where:1) The empire can no longer borrow the money to repay its debts2) It prints a lot of ne ...

Economic Cycles & Debt - Excessive debt coupled with economic downturns can lead to financial bubbles bursting, forcing countries to choose between defaulting or printing money [1] - Historically, financial crises have been triggered by financial excesses and the costs of wars, as seen with the Dutch, British, and the US [2] - Governments often resort to printing money to manage debt, which devalues the currency and raises inflation [1] Internal Conflict & Political Extremism - Economic hardship, declining living standards, and wealth inequality exacerbate internal conflicts among different groups [3] - Political extremism arises as populism of the left seeks wealth redistribution, while populism of the right aims to preserve wealth [3] - Rising taxes on the wealthy during turbulent times can lead to capital flight, reducing tax revenue and hollowing out the economy [4] Societal Instability & Leadership - Capital flight and turbulent conditions undermine productivity, shrinking the economic pie and intensifying conflicts [5] - Populist leaders emerge, promising order and control, challenging democracy and potentially leading to strong, authoritarian leadership [5]

Core Insights - The job market is showing signs of cooling, and tariffs are impacting the economy, raising concerns about a potential economic downturn in the near future [1] Group 1: Building Financial Resilience - Establishing emergency savings is crucial during uncertain economic times, with any amount saved being better than none [2] - Consistency in saving is emphasized, with recommendations to start automatic transfers from paychecks, even if the amount is small, to build a financial buffer [3] - Reducing fixed expenses can provide more control over finances during economic downturns, allowing individuals to manage income drops or price spikes [4] Group 2: Enhancing Financial Security - Creating a small emergency fund and cutting fixed expenses can offer a financial cushion during uncertain times, while diversifying investments can help spread risk [5] - Reducing discretionary spending can free up additional funds for savings, with examples such as cutting streaming services or takeout meals [6] Group 3: Diversifying Income Sources - As of September 2025, U.S. companies announced 946,426 job cuts, the highest level since 2020, highlighting the importance of having multiple income streams [7] - Engaging in freelance work or side hustles can provide extra income, which can help supplement savings and reduce reliance on a single income source [8]

Labor Market Trends - The US economy has experienced a loss of 1.2 million jobs since April 2024 [1] - The quits rate has decreased to approximately 2% following fluctuations since the pandemic [1] - Employers are hiring at the slowest rate since 2013, excluding the pandemic period [2] - A significant portion, 58%, of US professionals surveyed feel their skills are underutilized in their current roles [3] Employee Sentiment and Engagement - Four out of five employees surveyed indicated they are not thriving at work [3] - There is considerable anxiety regarding the direction of both the economy and the labor market, contributing to job retention [4] - The labor market currently lacks significant churn [3] Company Implications - Companies may be experiencing retention, but this could be masking disengagement among employees [3] Economic Impact - Reduced mobility in the labor market may be slowing down innovation [3]

Group 1: Workforce Reduction and Management Changes - Target announced the elimination of 1,800 corporate positions, marking its first major workforce reduction in a decade, as incoming CEO Michael Fiddelke aims to reverse four years of stagnant sales [1] - The layoffs indicate that Target may lack the operational efficiency and strategic clarity needed to compete effectively in a challenging macro environment [5] Group 2: Financial Performance and Market Position - Target's market cap is valued at $43 billion, with its stock down 65% from all-time highs, underperforming peers such as Walmart and Costco [2] - Over the last 10 years, Target stock has returned 73% to shareholders after adjusting for dividend reinvestments, while Walmart and Costco have returned 564% and 620%, respectively [2] Group 3: Revenue and Sales Outlook - Target expects revenue to decline year-over-year in fiscal 2026, indicating challenges with inventory management and store traffic [4] - The retailer generates 50% of its sales from discretionary products, making it more vulnerable to economic downturns compared to Walmart, which generates 40% from discretionary items [4] Group 4: Operational Improvements and Consumer Trends - Target saw some improvement in the second quarter, with strengthening traffic and comparable sales trends, particularly in physical stores [6] - Notable strength was observed in gaming, toys, and trading cards, as customers responded positively to new products and innovation [6] Group 5: Strategic Adjustments and Future Outlook - Target has invested significant resources in managing tariff impacts through product development adjustments, sourcing changes, and supply chain modifications [8] - While short-term pressure on profit margins is expected, management believes that the bottom line will expand over the next 18 months [8]

Thailand’s central bank warned the tariff-hit country is suffering a deeper-than-expected downturn, with the economy having likely posted its first quarterly contraction since the end of 2022 https://t.co/5wp2xZe1qP ...

“A market crash today is unlikely to result in the brief and relatively benign economic downturn that followed the dotcom bust,” writes the former IMF chief economist. “There is a lot more global wealth on the line now” https://t.co/bmEMthlO58Illustration: Dan Williams https://t.co/gHEbJFKpjf ...

Core Insights - American Express (Amex) reported significant increases in spending across key sectors, with a 14% year-over-year rise in front cabin airline ticket purchases and a 9% increase in restaurant spending in the third quarter [3] - Despite economic uncertainties, Amex's affluent customer base appears resilient, insulating the company from broader economic challenges [4][7] - Amex exceeded Wall Street expectations in various categories, reporting $421 million in card member spending, a 9% increase compared to the same quarter in 2024 [5] Financial Performance - Amex achieved a net income of $2.9 billion for the quarter, marking a 16% increase over the same quarter in 2024 [6] - Total revenue for the quarter reached $18.43 billion, reflecting an 11% increase compared to the year-ago quarter [6] Strategic Initiatives - The company is encouraging corporate clients to utilize their business cards more frequently for expenses, as a proactive measure against potential economic downturns [6] - Analysts from Jefferies noted that the momentum in Amex's performance was supported by better-than-expected spending volume [5]