The US economy has lost 1.2% million jobs since April 2024, and Americans are feeling the economic downturn. The quits rate, a measure of how often workers voluntarily leave their jobs, is now down to about 2% after fluctuating in the years since the pandemic, and employers are hiring at the slowest pace since 2013, excluding the pandemic dip and rise. I think people just want to stay with what is known and not take any risks right now.We use the term job clinging or job hugging to denote that they're stayi ...

Las Vegas Mayor Shelley Berkley issued a heartfelt plea to Canadian visitors this week, acknowledging the city’s tourism-dependent economy is suffering from a dramatic decline in international visitors, particularly from Canada, which represents the city’s largest international market.“As the mayor of Las Vegas, I’m telling everybody in Canada, please come. We love you, we need you, and we miss you,” Berkley said during a press conference this week, where she addressed the multiple challenges facing the ent ...

Monetary Policy Stance - The Fed decided to preserve flexibility amidst risks of both economic downturn and inflationary pressures from tariffs and economic strength [1] - The Fed's prudent action was to avoid excessive moves that could sacrifice credibility, as reversing such errors would be difficult [4] - A prior rate cut of 50 basis points led to a 75 basis point increase in the ten-year rate, impacting mortgage rates [2] - The market will reflect substantial economic weakness in rates, reducing the urgent need for rate cuts [8] Interest Rate Debate - There is debate regarding whether to have a 25 basis point rate cut in July, or two or three rate cuts this year [4] - The industry questions the merit of cutting rates to the 1% range, deeming it a dangerous idea given the current market and economic strength [4] - Dissenters within the Fed, appointed by different individuals, may see underlying economic weakness requiring preemptive action [6][7] Economic Outlook - The economy faces risks of a downturn, but if such an error is made, it is easily correctable [1][3] - Sacrificing credibility by moving excessively would be a much more damaging and difficult to reverse error [4]

Immigration Policy Impact on Construction Industry - ICE officers are increasing work site raids, causing panic for small businesses [1][2] - Deportation policies are criticized for targeting hardworking immigrants instead of criminals [4][10] - Hispanic Construction Council is asking to work with Congress and the President to create a stable workforce for undocumented immigrants [5] - Industry hopes the President understands the potential economic downturn from sweeping deportation plans [6] Workforce Shortage and Economic Consequences - Construction industry is currently short 500,000 workers [7] - Shortage is projected to increase to 1.3 million within 5 years due to deportation tactics [7] - Workforce shortage will be devastating for construction jobs, building new homes, and critical infrastructure [8] - Instability in the construction workforce could lead to a decline in quality of life [8] Personal Impact and Concerns - American citizens with brown skin are facing increased scrutiny and need to carry documentation to prove their citizenship [9][10][11] - There are concerns that ICE agents are targeting individuals based on appearance rather than criminal activity [10]

Core Viewpoint - Brinker International's stock price fell nearly 17% over the past week due to a quarterly earnings report that did not meet investor expectations, compounded by several analyst price target cuts [1][6]. Financial Performance - For the fiscal third quarter of 2025, Brinker reported revenue of just under $1.43 billion, marking a 27% year-over-year increase and surpassing the average analyst estimate of $1.37 billion [2]. - The company's GAAP net income more than doubled to $119 million, while non-GAAP adjusted earnings per share rose to $2.66 from $1.24, exceeding the consensus projection of $2.49 [4]. Market Sentiment - Investors are concerned about the impact of the current trade war on the U.S. economy, particularly regarding nonessential spending like restaurant meals, which are often the first to be cut from household budgets during economic tightening [5]. - Analysts from Wells Fargo and Barclays have reduced their price targets for Brinker, with Wells Fargo lowering its target to $150 from $165 and Barclays to $155 from $165, while both maintained hold recommendations [6]. Growth Potential - Despite current market concerns, Brinker has demonstrated impressive growth in a challenging restaurant industry, suggesting that it has the potential to survive and thrive during economic downturns [7].

Core Viewpoint - Wall Street is increasingly concerned about the economy's direction, leading to a sell-off of companies, particularly American Airlines, which is seen as vulnerable to a downturn [1][2]. Industry Overview - Airline stocks are cyclical, performing well in good times and declining when consumer confidence wanes, as households prioritize essential spending over vacations [2]. - Historical recessions have led to the failure of several airline brands, indicating the industry's vulnerability during economic downturns [2]. Company Analysis - American Airlines is currently healthier than some past failed brands but is more exposed than its peers if economic conditions worsen [3]. - The airline entered the pandemic with a higher debt load compared to rivals Delta and United, which may impact its recovery [3]. - American Airlines trades at an enterprise value of over 9 times its EBITDA, significantly higher than Delta's 6.9 times and United's 5.5 times, indicating a potential overvaluation [4]. Market Sentiment - Despite the overall health of the airline industry compared to previous downturns, American Airlines' efforts to catch up with competitors may be hindered if conditions deteriorate [5][6]. - Investors are cautious about American Airlines' stock ahead of its first-quarter results and outlook for 2025 [6].