Market Overview - Australian shares are expected to open with a +0.9% rally, showing resilience despite a challenging session on Wall Street where the Dow Jones rose while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq composite fell [1] - U.S. market concerns stem from Trump's comments on China not purchasing American soybeans and Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's worries about U.S. job markets [2][3] Company News - Westpac (ASX:WBC) has been relieved from holding an additional $500 million in capital, a requirement imposed by APRA in 2019 due to previous compliance failures [4] - Red Mountain Mining (ASX:RMX) reported results that support its exploration model at Oaky Creek, targeting a vein-style orogenic antimony-gold deposit [4] - Commonwealth Bank (ASX:CBA) is focusing on succession planning during its AGM [5] - Bank of Queensland (ASX:BOQ) is set to report earnings today [5] Commodity and Forex Update - The Australian dollar is trading at 64.8 U.S. cents [6] - Iron ore prices have decreased by -2.3% to $105.30 per tonne, while Brent crude oil is down -1.7% to $62.26 per barrel [6] - Gold prices have surged to $4,152 per ounce, indicating strong demand [6] - U.S. natural gas futures have dropped -2.3% to $3.02 per gigajoule [6]

Domino's closed around 200 locations this year The pizza industry has seen sales slip Overall demand for QSR has dropped When a low-cost dining option closes down, you know the economy may be suffering. Usually, when times are tough, cheaper chains do well.In the current economy, even fast-food chains including McDonald's have admitted that they're losing customers and need to focus on value. McDonald's CEO Christopher J. Kempczinski addressed one key sales problem during his company's second-quart ...

Core Viewpoint - Ford Motor Company's stock has experienced significant volatility in 2025, initially declining due to concerns over tariffs and the economy, but rebounding to near its 52-week high as of late summer [1] Sales Performance - Ford's marketing strategy, emphasizing its American brand identity, has led to impressive sales figures, with second-quarter vehicle sales up 14.2% compared to 2024 [4] - In the third quarter, Ford's vehicle sales increased by 8.2% year over year in the U.S., outperforming competitors General Motors (8% growth) and Stellantis (6% growth) [4] Economic Concerns - Despite strong sales, there are signs of economic distress, including a significant deceleration in vehicle sales growth in the third quarter and a sharp decline in heavy-duty truck sales since June [5][6] - Auto loan delinquency rates have reached their highest levels since the pandemic, indicating potential consumer reluctance to purchase new vehicles [6] Tariff Implications - President Trump's consideration of a tariff relief deal for automakers assembling vehicles in the U.S. could significantly benefit Ford, which estimates tariffs could cost it around $2 billion this year [7] - Management has projected EBIT (earnings before interest and taxes) of $6.5 billion to $7.5 billion in 2025, suggesting that alleviating tariff impacts would greatly enhance Ford's financial performance [8] Investment Considerations - The potential for tariff relief could provide upside for Ford's stock, but uncertainty remains regarding the timing and effectiveness of such measures [10] - Historically, investing in Ford during economic downturns has been advantageous, but current economic indicators suggest a downturn may be approaching, making it less favorable for immediate investment [11] - The automotive industry is highly competitive, and Ford has historically underperformed the S&P 500, suggesting that patience may be prudent while seeking better investment opportunities [12]

Labor Market Trends - The US economy has lost 1.2 million jobs since April 2024 [1] - The quits rate is down to about 2% after fluctuating since the pandemic [1] - Employers are hiring at the slowest pace since 2013, excluding the pandemic dip and rise [1] - Almost 1 in 5 job seekers surveyed said they're not confident that they will find a great job that they like [5] - A natural attrition of 20% in a company is mentioned [8] Employee Engagement & Productivity - Four out of five employees surveyed said they're not thriving at work [3] - 58% of US professionals surveyed believe they have a wide range of skills that are being underutilized in their current roles [3] - Employee disengagement adds up to about $5 million a year in lost productivity for a typical 1000 person company [12] - The average disengaged worker could cost the company $4,000 over the course of a year, while an executive could cost $20,000 [12][13] - Globally, low employee engagement is estimated to cost $9.6 trillion annually, or around 9% of global GDP [16] Wage & Bargaining Power - Wage growth has cooled, and job switching premiums have shrunk [6] - The minimum wage has been sitting at the same level since 2009 [19] - Workers have lost a bit of their bargaining power in the current environment [20]

Core Insights - Las Vegas is experiencing a significant decline in international tourism, particularly from Canada, which is its largest international market [1][4] - Mayor Shelley Berkley has made a public appeal to Canadian visitors, emphasizing the need for their return to support the local economy [2][14] - The downturn in tourism is attributed to various factors, including economic conditions, rising costs, and political concerns [7][9] Tourism Decline - The city saw a drop of 11% in total tourists in June 2025 compared to June 2024, with international visitors down by 13% [3] - Canadian tourist numbers fell sharply, with Air Canada and WestJet reporting declines of 33% and 31% respectively, and Flair Airlines experiencing a 62% drop [4] - Canadian tourists contributed approximately $3.6 billion to the Southern Nevada economy in 2024, supporting over 43,000 jobs [5] Economic Impact - The tourism industry in Southern Nevada generates a total economic impact of $85.2 billion [12] - The decline in visitors has led to a 27,000 room-night decrease in the second quarter, significantly affecting major gaming companies [10] - Las Vegas visitor volumes have consistently declined each month in 2025, with a 7.3% decrease in the first half compared to 2024 [12] Affordability Concerns - Mayor Berkley highlighted that Las Vegas has strayed from its historical value proposition, with rising costs alienating potential visitors [6][8] - Resort fees now range from $44 to $57 per night, and parking fees have increased significantly, impacting visitor spending behavior [8] - In response to criticism, some properties have begun offering value-focused promotions to attract visitors [11] Future Outlook - Despite current challenges, there is optimism for recovery, with upcoming events like the Formula 1 Grand Prix expected to drive tourism growth [13] - The Las Vegas Convention and Visitors Authority has invested $3.25 million in marketing campaigns targeting international markets [13]

Monetary Policy Stance - The Fed decided to preserve flexibility amidst risks of both economic downturn and inflationary pressures from tariffs and economic strength [1] - The Fed's prudent action was to avoid excessive moves that could sacrifice credibility, as reversing such errors would be difficult [4] - A prior rate cut of 50 basis points led to a 75 basis point increase in the ten-year rate, impacting mortgage rates [2] - The market will reflect substantial economic weakness in rates, reducing the urgent need for rate cuts [8] Interest Rate Debate - There is debate regarding whether to have a 25 basis point rate cut in July, or two or three rate cuts this year [4] - The industry questions the merit of cutting rates to the 1% range, deeming it a dangerous idea given the current market and economic strength [4] - Dissenters within the Fed, appointed by different individuals, may see underlying economic weakness requiring preemptive action [6][7] Economic Outlook - The economy faces risks of a downturn, but if such an error is made, it is easily correctable [1][3] - Sacrificing credibility by moving excessively would be a much more damaging and difficult to reverse error [4]

Immigration Policy Impact on Construction Industry - ICE officers are increasing work site raids, causing panic for small businesses [1][2] - Deportation policies are criticized for targeting hardworking immigrants instead of criminals [4][10] - Hispanic Construction Council is asking to work with Congress and the President to create a stable workforce for undocumented immigrants [5] - Industry hopes the President understands the potential economic downturn from sweeping deportation plans [6] Workforce Shortage and Economic Consequences - Construction industry is currently short 500,000 workers [7] - Shortage is projected to increase to 1.3 million within 5 years due to deportation tactics [7] - Workforce shortage will be devastating for construction jobs, building new homes, and critical infrastructure [8] - Instability in the construction workforce could lead to a decline in quality of life [8] Personal Impact and Concerns - American citizens with brown skin are facing increased scrutiny and need to carry documentation to prove their citizenship [9][10][11] - There are concerns that ICE agents are targeting individuals based on appearance rather than criminal activity [10]

Core Viewpoint - Brinker International's stock price fell nearly 17% over the past week due to a quarterly earnings report that did not meet investor expectations, compounded by several analyst price target cuts [1][6]. Financial Performance - For the fiscal third quarter of 2025, Brinker reported revenue of just under $1.43 billion, marking a 27% year-over-year increase and surpassing the average analyst estimate of $1.37 billion [2]. - The company's GAAP net income more than doubled to $119 million, while non-GAAP adjusted earnings per share rose to $2.66 from $1.24, exceeding the consensus projection of $2.49 [4]. Market Sentiment - Investors are concerned about the impact of the current trade war on the U.S. economy, particularly regarding nonessential spending like restaurant meals, which are often the first to be cut from household budgets during economic tightening [5]. - Analysts from Wells Fargo and Barclays have reduced their price targets for Brinker, with Wells Fargo lowering its target to $150 from $165 and Barclays to $155 from $165, while both maintained hold recommendations [6]. Growth Potential - Despite current market concerns, Brinker has demonstrated impressive growth in a challenging restaurant industry, suggesting that it has the potential to survive and thrive during economic downturns [7].

Core Viewpoint - Wall Street is increasingly concerned about the economy's direction, leading to a sell-off of companies, particularly American Airlines, which is seen as vulnerable to a downturn [1][2]. Industry Overview - Airline stocks are cyclical, performing well in good times and declining when consumer confidence wanes, as households prioritize essential spending over vacations [2]. - Historical recessions have led to the failure of several airline brands, indicating the industry's vulnerability during economic downturns [2]. Company Analysis - American Airlines is currently healthier than some past failed brands but is more exposed than its peers if economic conditions worsen [3]. - The airline entered the pandemic with a higher debt load compared to rivals Delta and United, which may impact its recovery [3]. - American Airlines trades at an enterprise value of over 9 times its EBITDA, significantly higher than Delta's 6.9 times and United's 5.5 times, indicating a potential overvaluation [4]. Market Sentiment - Despite the overall health of the airline industry compared to previous downturns, American Airlines' efforts to catch up with competitors may be hindered if conditions deteriorate [5][6]. - Investors are cautious about American Airlines' stock ahead of its first-quarter results and outlook for 2025 [6].