Efficient Market Hypothesis

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St. James Investment Company Investment Adviser's Q3 2025 Letter
Seeking Alpha· 2025-10-07 05:40
J Studios/DigitalVision via Getty Images LETTER TO INVESTORS "The essence of strategy is choosing what not to do." – Michael Porter England experienced a period of strong prosperity in the late seventeenth century. The economy thrived due to good harvests, strong foreign trade, and the influx of Dutch and Huguenot immigrants, who brought capital and skills. Easier credit emerged through a market in merchants' bills of exchange. Trading companies prospered, posting high returns that fueled speculative in ...
Prediction: XRP's Downtrend Will Continue
Yahoo Finance· 2025-09-12 10:50
Key Points After hitting a 52-week high in July, XRP has languished in price and now trades for just $3. XRP may get little or no bounce from the expected approval of spot XRP ETFs in October. If Bitcoin fails to rally at the end of the year, it's unlikely that XRP will follow suit. 10 stocks we like better than XRP › Cryptocurrency XRP (CRYPTO: XRP) remains mired in a month-long slump that has seen its price fall below the $3 mark. XRP is now down about 25% after hitting a new 52-week high in Ju ...
The Nihilist Defense Of The Efficient Market Hypothesis
Seeking Alpha· 2025-09-07 13:00
Core Insights - James A. Kostohryz has over 20 years of experience in global investment, focusing on various sectors including emerging markets, banking, energy, construction, real estate, and metals and mining [1] - He has held significant roles such as Global Portfolio Strategist and Head of International Investments at an investment bank, indicating a strong background in strategic investment management [1] - Currently, he manages Investor Acumen, a firm that specializes in global portfolio strategy, macro forecasting, and quantitative analytics [1] Company and Industry Summary - The investing group Successful Portfolio Strategy, led by James, aims to empower investors through a structured portfolio strategy system, which includes model portfolios and tactical asset allocation [2] - The service offers mentorship for execution and analysis through various formats such as videos and articles, enhancing investor education and performance [2] - James also contributes to the Investor Acumen account on Seeking Alpha, indicating active engagement in investment discourse and analysis [2]
X @Michael Saylor
Michael Saylor· 2025-08-30 15:58
Bitcoin Market Dynamics - Strategy has successfully created two Bitcoin-based financial products experiencing high demand: leveraged long-duration Bitcoin exposure via equity and fixed income products providing capital for leverage [1] - These products form a self-reinforcing system, indicating market confidence in Bitcoin [1] Fixed Income Products Analysis - Strategy's fixed income products are backed by over-collateralized Bitcoin positions with a BTC rating above 5, suggesting significant over-collateralization with liquid, scarce monetary collateral [2] - Approximately 15% of the entire IPO market this year consisted of Strategy issuing these fixed income products to acquire more Bitcoin [2] - These fixed income products offer bond investors higher safety and higher yield compared to traditional fixed income, improving the risk-return profile [2] Market Perception of Bitcoin - The simultaneous existence and strong demand for both leveraged Bitcoin equity and over-collateralized Bitcoin credit suggest the market views both as long-term winners [3] - Equity investors are seeking leveraged Bitcoin exposure, while credit investors are funding that leverage due to higher returns with lower risk than traditional fixed income [3] - The market is converging on Bitcoin as the most efficient foundation for both equity and credit, signaling a potential transformation of global finance [4]
Alexandria Real Estate Shows The Efficient Market Hypothesis Is Officially Dead
Seeking Alpha· 2025-07-22 15:36
Core Viewpoint - The article highlights a significant increase in investment in Alexandria Real Estate Equities, Inc. (NYSE: ARE), with a reported 7000% expansion in position since February 2025, indicating strong confidence in the company's long-term value and potential [1]. Group 1: Company Overview - Alexandria Real Estate Equities, Inc. is identified as a key player in the Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) sector, focusing on properties that are temporarily undervalued in the market [1]. - The company represents the largest stock position for the author, suggesting a strong belief in its growth and stability within the REIT market [2]. Group 2: Investment Strategy - The investment strategy employed is characterized by a contrarian approach, seeking deep-value opportunities in the market, particularly during periods when the company is out-of-favor [1]. - The author emphasizes a long-term investment horizon, which aligns with the fundamental economic insights used to assess the intrinsic value of stocks [1].
Retail Sales Signal Upside for These 3 Consumer Stocks
MarketBeat· 2025-06-22 12:31
Group 1: Market Sentiment and Analysis - Market participants are increasingly favoring technical analysis over fundamental analysis, leading to a belief that fundamental data is already reflected in stock prices, reminiscent of the efficient market hypothesis, which has been repeatedly disproven [1] - Investors with significant buying power should leverage real data to expand portfolios beyond short-term trading, as recent retail sales data indicates potential winners in the retail sector [2][3] Group 2: Company-Specific Insights - Dollar Tree Inc. has been identified as a strong candidate for growth, with a current stock price of $98.71 and a 12-month price forecast of $90.26, indicating an 8.56% downside, but a potential rally of nearly 15% is anticipated based on analyst ratings [4][7] - Ulta Beauty Inc. is considered a safe investment, with a current price of $473.85 and a 12-month price forecast of $462.22, suggesting a 2.45% downside, yet it has a potential upside of 16% based on analyst targets [9][10] - Bath & Body Works Inc. is viewed as undervalued, with a current price of $28.23 and a 12-month price forecast of $42.00, indicating a potential upside of 48.80%, attracting significant institutional investment [13][14] Group 3: Institutional Activity - Institutional investors have increased their holdings in Ulta stock by 20.2%, reflecting positive sentiment and confidence in the company's future performance [12] - Bath & Body Works has seen $675 million in institutional investment in the last quarter, highlighting its appeal among investors amid favorable economic conditions [14]