The latest UK jobs data reveals a weaker employment market with wage growth gradually cooling, though still higher than expected. It's still not at all clear whether this is just "normalising", or the prelude to larger falls. https://t.co/6QOUc1v4NS ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent hawkish statements from Federal Reserve officials have led to a significant sell-off in the spot gold and silver markets, with gold prices dropping sharply from a recent high [2] Group 1: Market Reaction - On November 15, spot gold fell below $4040 per ounce, reaching a low of $4031.82, marking a decline of nearly $180 from the previous day's high of $4210, with a daily drop exceeding 3% [2] - As of 9 AM, gold was reported at $4082.16 per ounce, reflecting a daily decline of 2.13% [2] - Spot silver also experienced a significant drop of over 4%, falling below the $51 mark to a current price of $50.517 per ounce [2] Group 2: Federal Reserve Policy Outlook - The CME FedWatch Tool indicates that the probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates in December has risen to 54.2%, a substantial increase from a month ago [2] - Conversely, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut has plummeted from 94.4% to 45.8% [2] - Several Federal Reserve officials have reinforced expectations for policy tightening, with Logan stating that it is difficult to support a rate cut in December without clear evidence of inflation decreasing or a significant cooling in the labor market [2] Group 3: Divergence in Fed Officials' Views - Kashkari expressed a wait-and-see approach regarding the December decision, while Musalem noted that current policy is closer to neutral [2] - Collins emphasized the necessity of maintaining interest rates, despite some officials like Milan advocating for a dovish shift based on data [2] - Daly reiterated the commitment to the 2% inflation target and stressed the need for more economic data to guide decisions [2]

来源：华泰睿思 核心观点 2025年上半年美国就业市场快速走弱，叠加AI在美国渗透加速，AI被认为是就业市场走弱的重要因素。我们的研究显示，AI对部分行业/群体产生冲击， 但还不是驱动就业放缓的主要因素，关税、驱逐移民、DOGE等是主要的因素。往前看，我们认为美国就业市场在三季度仍维持偏弱格局，或为联储9月 再次降息创造条件；但四季度企业雇佣意愿改善或带来一定修复。但毋庸置疑的是，AI的快速渗透将对就业市场、宏观走势、产业格局、收入分配等产 生深远的影响。 一、2季度美国非农大幅下调，但AI对劳工的替代效益尚不显著 2025年4月以来，美国就业明显放缓，而AI被认为可能是背后的重要原因。年轻群体、研究生学历群体近期失业率上行较为明显，此外企业内部中层管理 人员面临的裁员压力相对更大。由于2025年AI在美国渗透加速，而AI对初级软件工程岗位的替代性更强，且可以更好处理日常任务，从而减少对中层管 理人员的需求，AI被认为可能是就业放缓的重要原因。 我们认为，AI或对部分行业/群体就业带来冲击，但目前还不是就业放缓的最重要原因。2022年11月ChatGPT公布后，少数几个对AI敞口高的行业非农就 业在2024- ...

Economic Indicators - Initial Jobless Claims decreased for the fourth consecutive week to 227K, down from a near-term high of 250K four weeks ago, marking the lowest level since May 17th [2] - Continuing Claims increased to 1.965 million from a revised 1.955 million, the highest since November 2021, with four of the last five weeks above 1.95 million [3][4] Company Earnings - Delta Air Lines (DAL) reported Q2 earnings of $2.10 per share, beating expectations by 9 cents, although down from $2.36 per share a year ago, with revenues of $16.6 billion, slightly above the expected $16.01 billion [5][6] - Delta raised its earnings guidance for Q3 to a range of $1.25-1.75 per share and for the full fiscal year to $5.25-6.25 per share, exceeding analysts' projections [6] - Conagra (CAG) missed fiscal Q4 earnings expectations, reporting 56 cents per share versus the expected 59 cents, with revenues of $2.78 billion below the anticipated $2.84 billion, leading to an 8% drop in shares [7]