来源：华泰睿思 核心观点 2025年上半年美国就业市场快速走弱，叠加AI在美国渗透加速，AI被认为是就业市场走弱的重要因素。我们的研究显示，AI对部分行业/群体产生冲击， 但还不是驱动就业放缓的主要因素，关税、驱逐移民、DOGE等是主要的因素。往前看，我们认为美国就业市场在三季度仍维持偏弱格局，或为联储9月 再次降息创造条件；但四季度企业雇佣意愿改善或带来一定修复。但毋庸置疑的是，AI的快速渗透将对就业市场、宏观走势、产业格局、收入分配等产 生深远的影响。 一、2季度美国非农大幅下调，但AI对劳工的替代效益尚不显著 2025年4月以来，美国就业明显放缓，而AI被认为可能是背后的重要原因。年轻群体、研究生学历群体近期失业率上行较为明显，此外企业内部中层管理 人员面临的裁员压力相对更大。由于2025年AI在美国渗透加速，而AI对初级软件工程岗位的替代性更强，且可以更好处理日常任务，从而减少对中层管 理人员的需求，AI被认为可能是就业放缓的重要原因。 我们认为，AI或对部分行业/群体就业带来冲击，但目前还不是就业放缓的最重要原因。2022年11月ChatGPT公布后，少数几个对AI敞口高的行业非农就 业在2024- ...

Economic Indicators - Initial Jobless Claims decreased for the fourth consecutive week to 227K, down from a near-term high of 250K four weeks ago, marking the lowest level since May 17th [2] - Continuing Claims increased to 1.965 million from a revised 1.955 million, the highest since November 2021, with four of the last five weeks above 1.95 million [3][4] Company Earnings - Delta Air Lines (DAL) reported Q2 earnings of $2.10 per share, beating expectations by 9 cents, although down from $2.36 per share a year ago, with revenues of $16.6 billion, slightly above the expected $16.01 billion [5][6] - Delta raised its earnings guidance for Q3 to a range of $1.25-1.75 per share and for the full fiscal year to $5.25-6.25 per share, exceeding analysts' projections [6] - Conagra (CAG) missed fiscal Q4 earnings expectations, reporting 56 cents per share versus the expected 59 cents, with revenues of $2.78 billion below the anticipated $2.84 billion, leading to an 8% drop in shares [7]