In spite of constant, threatening pressure from President Donald Trump to lower interest rates, the Federal Reserve is likely to hold interest rates steady at this week’s policy meeting, as reported by CNBC. Trump has continually insisted that the Fed cut borrowing costs amid the broader economic uncertainty of a weak employment market and inflation pressure. However, the Fed is expected to hold its current course of a 3.50% to 3.75% range and expressed commitment to balancing inflation risks with labor m ...

The latest UK jobs data reveals a weaker employment market with wage growth gradually cooling, though still higher than expected. It's still not at all clear whether this is just "normalising", or the prelude to larger falls. https://t.co/6QOUc1v4NS ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent hawkish statements from Federal Reserve officials have led to a significant sell-off in the spot gold and silver markets, with gold prices dropping sharply from a recent high [2] Group 1: Market Reaction - On November 15, spot gold fell below $4040 per ounce, reaching a low of $4031.82, marking a decline of nearly $180 from the previous day's high of $4210, with a daily drop exceeding 3% [2] - As of 9 AM, gold was reported at $4082.16 per ounce, reflecting a daily decline of 2.13% [2] - Spot silver also experienced a significant drop of over 4%, falling below the $51 mark to a current price of $50.517 per ounce [2] Group 2: Federal Reserve Policy Outlook - The CME FedWatch Tool indicates that the probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates in December has risen to 54.2%, a substantial increase from a month ago [2] - Conversely, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut has plummeted from 94.4% to 45.8% [2] - Several Federal Reserve officials have reinforced expectations for policy tightening, with Logan stating that it is difficult to support a rate cut in December without clear evidence of inflation decreasing or a significant cooling in the labor market [2] Group 3: Divergence in Fed Officials' Views - Kashkari expressed a wait-and-see approach regarding the December decision, while Musalem noted that current policy is closer to neutral [2] - Collins emphasized the necessity of maintaining interest rates, despite some officials like Milan advocating for a dovish shift based on data [2] - Daly reiterated the commitment to the 2% inflation target and stressed the need for more economic data to guide decisions [2]

Group 1 - The U.S. job market is weakening rapidly in the first half of 2025, with AI penetration accelerating, but AI is not the primary driver of this slowdown. Other factors such as tariffs, immigration policies, and the DOGE initiative are more significant contributors [1][4][11] - Since April 2025, employment in the U.S. has noticeably slowed, particularly affecting younger demographics and those with graduate degrees. The unemployment rate for ages 16-19 reached 15.2% in July, while for ages 20-24 it was 7.9% [2][11] - AI's impact on employment is currently limited, with some industries experiencing job losses, but overall, sectors with high AI exposure have shown better employment trends compared to others. For instance, non-farm employment in AI-exposed industries has not declined as sharply as in other sectors [3][12] Group 2 - Tariffs, immigration, and the DOGE initiative are identified as primary factors contributing to the slowdown in job growth since 2025. Tariffs have increased significantly, with the weighted tariff rate rising by 6.6 percentage points to 8.9%, the highest since the 1930s [4][27] - Immigration inflow is expected to decrease significantly, potentially dropping to near zero in 2025, which will further constrain labor supply and negatively impact non-farm employment [34][38] - The DOGE initiative has led to a reduction in federal government employment, with a cumulative loss of 84,000 jobs from January to July 2025, affecting overall job growth [43][51] Group 3 - The job market is expected to remain weak in the third quarter of 2025, with a gradual increase in the unemployment rate. Factors such as rising tariffs and limited improvements in hiring intentions are likely to continue impacting the job market [55][60] - There is an expectation of a marginal rebound in non-farm employment in the fourth quarter, driven by improved corporate investment and hiring intentions, although this will be constrained by declining labor supply [60][68] - AI's penetration in U.S. industries is currently at about 9%, with significant potential for growth, which could have profound implications for employment, industry structure, and income distribution in the future [24][11]

Economic Indicators - Initial Jobless Claims decreased for the fourth consecutive week to 227K, down from a near-term high of 250K four weeks ago, marking the lowest level since May 17th [2] - Continuing Claims increased to 1.965 million from a revised 1.955 million, the highest since November 2021, with four of the last five weeks above 1.95 million [3][4] Company Earnings - Delta Air Lines (DAL) reported Q2 earnings of $2.10 per share, beating expectations by 9 cents, although down from $2.36 per share a year ago, with revenues of $16.6 billion, slightly above the expected $16.01 billion [5][6] - Delta raised its earnings guidance for Q3 to a range of $1.25-1.75 per share and for the full fiscal year to $5.25-6.25 per share, exceeding analysts' projections [6] - Conagra (CAG) missed fiscal Q4 earnings expectations, reporting 56 cents per share versus the expected 59 cents, with revenues of $2.78 billion below the anticipated $2.84 billion, leading to an 8% drop in shares [7]