证券研究报告 2025 年 12 月 9 日 星期二 【A 股市场大势研判】 大盘高开高走，成交额突破 2 万亿元 板块排名： | 申万行业表现前五 | | | 申万行业表现后五 | 概 | 念板块表现前五 | 概念板块表现后五 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 通信 | 4.79% | 煤炭 | -1.43% | 共封装光学 (CPO) | 4.72% | 天津自贸区 | -0.99% | | 综合 | 3.03% | 石油石化 | -0.84% | F5G 概念 | 4.30% | 草甘膦 | -0.86% | | 电子 | 2.60% | 食品饮料 | -0.78% | 光纤概念 | 3.67% | 青蒿素 | -0.51% | | 非银金融 | 1.90% | 公用事业 | -0.42% | 铜缆高速连接 | 3.57% | 煤炭概念 | -0.51% | | 计算机 | 1.49% | 钢铁 | -0.27% | 福建自贸区 | 3.44% | 高股息精选 | -0.38% | 资料来源：东莞证券研究所，iFinD 数据 ...

Market Overview - The A-share market is experiencing a downward trend, with the ChiNext index leading the decline [1] - Major indices closed in the red, with the ChiNext index down by 4.25% and the Sci-Tech 50 index down over 6% [2][4] Sector Performance - The top-performing sectors include retail trade (up 1.63%), beauty care (up 1.19%), and banking (up 0.79%) [3] - Conversely, sectors such as telecommunications (down 8.48%), electronics (down 5.08%), and non-ferrous metals (down 3.65%) are underperforming [3][4] Market Trends - The market is characterized by a high number of declining stocks, with nearly 3,000 stocks falling [6] - The report indicates that the current liquidity remains a fundamental support for the market, despite short-term overbought pressures [6] Future Outlook - The report suggests three key areas to watch: 1. The second phase of the bull market with rapid sector rotation, focusing on sectors with low valuations and improving conditions [6] 2. Policy signals in response to economic pressures, particularly regarding PPI trends [6] 3. Potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which could enhance liquidity and benefit sectors like non-ferrous metals [6] Policy Developments - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has issued a growth action plan for the electronic information manufacturing industry, targeting an average growth rate of around 7% for major sectors [5] - The plan emphasizes innovation in AI applications and the development of key components for 5G/6G technologies [5]

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index maintained above 3500 points, while the ChiNext Index rose over 1% [1][3] - The market showed mixed performance with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3505.00, down 0.42%, and the Shenzhen Component Index closing at 10744.56, up 0.56% [1][3] Sector Performance - The top-performing sectors included Communication (up 4.61%), Computer (up 1.42%), Electronics (up 0.79%), Home Appliances (up 0.59%), and Automotive (up 0.58%) [2] - The underperforming sectors were Coal (down 1.92%), Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry and Fishery (down 1.62%), Utilities (down 1.60%), Textiles and Apparel (down 1.55%), and Beauty and Personal Care (down 1.53%) [2] Concept Index Performance - The leading concept indices included ERP Concept (up 3.35%), Co-packaged Optics (CPO) (up 2.39%), F5G Concept (up 2.25%), Nvidia Concept (up 2.02%), and Liquid Cooling Servers (up 1.90%) [2] - The lagging concept indices were Low-E Glass (down 3.55%), Silicon Energy (down 2.85%), POE Film (down 2.39%), Rural E-commerce (down 2.37%), and Coal Concept (down 2.36%) [2] Economic Indicators - The GDP for the first half of the year was approximately 660536 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.3% [4] - In June, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 42287 billion yuan, growing by 4.8% year-on-year [4] - Fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) for the first half of the year was 248654 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 2.8% [4] Future Outlook - The market is expected to enter a period of consolidation after recent rebounds, with a recommendation for balanced portfolio allocation and focus on high-performing stocks during the upcoming semi-annual report window [5]