智通财经APP获悉，中国银河证券发布研报称，展望未来，在多重积极因素共振下，港股市场交投活跃 度有望持续上升，预计港股整体震荡上行。配置方面，建议关注以下板块：（1）科技板块仍是中长期 投资主线，在产业链涨价、并购重组、国产化替代等多重利好共振下，有望震荡上行。（2）消费板块 有望持续受益于政策支持，且当前估值处于相对低位，中长期上涨空间较大，后续需关注政策落地力度 及消费数据改善情况。 港股估值与风险偏好方面 （1）截至2026年1月2日，恒生指数的市盈率、市净率分别为12.09倍、1.23倍，分别较上周五上涨 2.36%、2.36%，分别处于2010年以来79%、56%分位数水平。恒生科技指数的市盈率、市净率分别为 23.8倍、3.15倍，分别处于2010年以来 36%、66%分位数水平。（2）10年期美国国债到期收益率较上周 五上行5个基点至4.19%，港股恒生指数的风险溢价率为4.08%，为3年滚动均值负1.82倍标准差，处于 2010年以来4%分位。10年期中国国债到期收益率较上周五上行0.97个基点至1.8473%，从而港股恒生指 数的风险溢价率为6.42%，为均值（3年滚动）负1.71倍标准差， ...

行业板块方面，31个申万一级板块指数中，累计共有8个板块在近20年1月期间的上涨比例超50%（不含 50%），分别为银行、国防军工、钢铁、家用电器、交通运输、汽车、机械设备、石油石化，其中，银 行、国防军工板块上涨比例双双超60%。另有13个板块跌多涨少，其中，公用事业、纺织服饰、建筑装 饰、环保、食品饮料板块上涨比例相对靠后。 以平均涨幅统计，家用电器、银行、计算机板块近20年1月期间平均涨幅超1%，各为1.9%、1.9%、 1.0%，有色金属、美容护理、钢铁、传媒、煤炭五个板块也同样收涨。而公用事业、环保、通信、商 贸零售、食品饮料、建筑装饰板块历史数据则相对表现不佳，平均跌幅在1.6%以上。 注：上证指数近20年（2005年至2024年）1月期间涨跌幅情况 其余主要指数方面，以上涨比例来看，科创50、红利指数、中证红利、深证成指在近20年1月期间上涨 比例在5成以上（不含5成，不足20年以实际年份统计），分别达60%、58%、58%、55%。而国证 2000、中证2000、中证1000、创业板指、中证全指则跌多涨少。若以平均涨跌幅来看，中证红利、红利 指数在1月期间相对占优，平均涨幅各为0.98%、0. ...

Macro Liquidity - The US dollar index continued to decline, and the degree of "inversion" in the China-US interest rate spread has deepened. The nominal and real interest rates of 10Y US Treasury bonds have both rebounded, with inflation expectations remaining unchanged [1][14]. - Offshore dollar liquidity has marginally tightened, while the domestic interbank funding environment remains balanced and relatively loose. The yield spread between 10Y and 1Y bonds continues to widen [1][19]. Market Trading Activity - Overall market trading activity has increased, with trading heat in sectors such as light industry, retail, military, textiles, communications, and real estate all above the 80th percentile [2][25]. - The volatility of major indices has generally increased, with the volatility of sectors like communications, electric power, and electronics remaining above the 80th historical percentile [2][31]. Institutional Research - Research activity is concentrated in sectors such as electronics, pharmaceuticals, electric power, machinery, and non-ferrous metals, with an upward trend in research heat for non-ferrous metals, computers, and textiles [3][42]. Analyst Forecasts - Analysts have adjusted the net profit forecasts for the entire A-share market for 2025/2026, with increases in forecasts for sectors including pharmaceuticals, coal, automobiles, food and beverage, and oil and petrochemicals [4][21]. - The proportion of stocks with upward revisions in net profit forecasts for 2025/2026 has increased across the A-share market [4][17]. Northbound Trading Activity - Northbound trading activity has rebounded, continuing to net sell A-shares. The ratio of buy/sell amounts in sectors like communications, electronics, and finance has increased, while it has decreased in electric power, chemicals, and automobiles [5][31]. - Northbound trading primarily net bought sectors such as communications, machinery, and home appliances, while net selling occurred in pharmaceuticals, computers, and electronics [5][33]. Margin Financing Activity - The activity of margin financing has slightly increased but remains at a relatively low level since late July 2025. The main net purchases were in sectors like electronics, communications, and military [6][39]. - The proportion of financing purchases in sectors such as oil and petrochemicals, retail, and electronics has increased [6][38]. Hot Stocks Trading - The trading volume on the "Dragon and Tiger List" has increased, with sectors like retail, light industry, and electric power showing relatively high and rising trading volumes [7][41]. Active Equity Fund Positioning - The positions of actively managed equity funds have continued to decline, with significant increases in positions in sectors like pharmaceuticals, agriculture, and retail [8][45]. - The correlation of actively managed equity funds with mid/small-cap growth and mid-cap value has increased, while the correlation with large-cap growth and large/small-cap value has decreased [8][48]. - The scale of newly established equity funds has continued to decline, with both active and passive fund sizes decreasing [8][50].

Market Overview - The A-share market opened high and continued to rise, with a trading volume exceeding 2 trillion yuan, marking a significant increase of 310.9 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [3][5] - Major indices closed in the green, with the ChiNext Index leading the gains, up by 2.60% [3][5] Sector Performance - The top-performing sectors included Communication (up 4.79%), Comprehensive (up 3.03%), and Electronics (up 2.60%), while the weakest sectors were Coal (down 1.43%) and Oil & Petrochemicals (down 0.84%) [2][3] - Concept indices such as Co-packaged Optical (CPO) and F5G Concept showed strong performance, while sectors like Tianjin Free Trade Zone and Glyphosate lagged behind [2][3] Future Outlook - The market is expected to continue its upward trend, supported by favorable policies from the Central Political Bureau, which emphasized a proactive fiscal policy and moderate monetary policy for 2026 [4][5] - The report anticipates that the demand for mechanical and high-tech products will remain strong, contributing to resilient export growth [5]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market showed a slight increase with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.14%, while trading volume decreased by 3.19% compared to the previous trading day [1] Industry Performance - The communication sector led the gains with an increase of 4.36%, followed by the electronics sector at 2.45% and the comprehensive sector at 1.69% [1] - The defense and military industry experienced the largest decline at 1.93%, followed by the banking sector at 1.24% and the oil and petrochemical sector at 0.90% [1] Trading Volume and Amount - The total trading volume reached 731.96 billion shares, with a total transaction amount of 11,439.39 billion yuan [1] - The communication sector had a transaction amount of 1,045.06 billion yuan, marking an increase of 18.32% from the previous day [1] - The electronics sector recorded a transaction amount of 2,014.72 billion yuan, with a slight increase of 0.93% [1] Top Gainers and Losers - The top gaining stock in the communication sector was Zhongji Xuchuang, which rose by 13.89% [1] - In the electronics sector, Mingwei Electronics saw a significant increase of 20.01% [1] - The largest decline in the defense and military sector was seen in Chenxi Aviation, which dropped by 10.08% [1]

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.08% as of 10:28 AM, with a trading volume of 51.74 billion shares and a transaction value of 785.21 billion yuan, a decrease of 11.36% compared to the previous trading day [1] Industry Performance - The top-performing sectors included: - Telecommunications: Increased by 2.60%, with a transaction value of 67.58 billion yuan, led by TeFa Information, which rose by 10.04% [1] - Pharmaceutical and Biological: Increased by 1.65%, with a transaction value of 59.41 billion yuan, led by Yue Wannianqing, which rose by 20.02% [1] - Electronics: Increased by 1.35%, with a transaction value of 132.57 billion yuan, led by Mingwei Electronics, which rose by 20.01% [1] - The sectors with the largest declines included: - National Defense and Military Industry: Decreased by 1.89%, with a transaction value of 37.34 billion yuan, led by Chenxi Aviation, which fell by 10.13% [1] - Banking: Decreased by 0.85%, with a transaction value of 11.98 billion yuan, led by China Construction Bank, which fell by 1.52% [1] - Oil and Petrochemicals: Decreased by 0.51%, with a transaction value of 4.39 billion yuan, led by Heshun Petroleum, which fell by 3.55% [1] Notable Stocks - The leading stocks in the rising sectors included: - TeFa Information in Telecommunications [1] - Yue Wannianqing in Pharmaceutical and Biological [1] - Mingwei Electronics in Electronics [1] - The leading stocks in the declining sectors included: - Chenxi Aviation in National Defense and Military Industry [1] - China Construction Bank in Banking [1] - Heshun Petroleum in Oil and Petrochemicals [1]

Core Insights - As of November 14, the latest market financing balance is 24,746.99 billion yuan, a decrease of 13.456 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1] - Nine industries saw an increase in financing balance, with the coal industry experiencing the largest increase of 1.34 million yuan [1] - Twenty-two industries reported a decrease in financing balance, with the electronics, communication, and computer sectors showing the most significant declines of 36.54 billion yuan, 15.37 billion yuan, and 11.69 billion yuan respectively [1][2] Industry Summary - **Coal Industry**: Latest financing balance is 14.663 billion yuan, with a week-on-week increase of 0.92% [1] - **Retail Trade**: Financing balance increased by 0.25%, reaching 27.467 billion yuan [1] - **Petrochemical Industry**: Financing balance rose by 0.22%, totaling 24.563 billion yuan [1] - **Light Manufacturing**: Financing balance increased by 0.37%, now at 14.244 billion yuan [1] - **Pharmaceuticals**: Financing balance is 1680.27 billion yuan, with a slight increase of 0.03% [1] - **Construction Materials**: Financing balance increased by 0.25%, totaling 13.712 billion yuan [1] - **Communication Sector**: Latest financing balance is 109.289 billion yuan, down by 1.39% [1][2] - **Food and Beverage**: Financing balance decreased by 1.10%, now at 51.756 billion yuan [1][2] - **Electronics**: Financing balance decreased by 1.00%, totaling 361.569 billion yuan [1][2]

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index increased by 0.44% with a trading volume of 844.79 million shares and a transaction value of 12,733.37 billion yuan, representing a 0.26% increase compared to the previous trading day [1] Industry Performance - The top-performing industries included: - **Electric Power Equipment**: Increased by 4.83% with a transaction value of 2,333.19 billion yuan, up 10.59% from the previous day, led by Tianhong Lithium Battery which rose by 26.37% [1] - **Nonferrous Metals**: Increased by 4.61% with a transaction value of 1,084.39 billion yuan, up 47.34%, led by Xingye Silver Tin which rose by 10.02% [1] - **Comprehensive**: Increased by 3.26% with a transaction value of 66.15 billion yuan, up 107.33%, led by Sanmu Group which rose by 10.05% [1] - The worst-performing industries included: - **Banking**: Decreased by 1.23% with a transaction value of 197.17 billion yuan, down 14.31%, led by Changsha Bank which fell by 1.79% [2] - **Oil and Petrochemicals**: Decreased by 0.94% with a transaction value of 109.44 billion yuan, down 10.55%, led by Daqing Huake which fell by 4.10% [2] - **Public Utilities**: Decreased by 0.71% with a transaction value of 246.74 billion yuan, down 0.88%, led by Delong Huineng which fell by 8.74% [2]

Core Insights - The pharmaceutical and biological industry saw the highest net inflow of capital today, amounting to 2.402 billion yuan, with a price change of 0.61% and a turnover rate of 2.54% [1] - The electric equipment industry experienced the largest net outflow of capital, totaling -17.743 billion yuan, with a price change of -2.10% and a turnover rate of 5.82% [2] Industry Summary - **Pharmaceutical and Biological**: - Trading volume: 6.968 billion shares - Change in trading volume: +14.69% - Net capital inflow: 2.402 billion yuan [1] - **Banking**: - Trading volume: 4.558 billion shares - Change in trading volume: +55.56% - Net capital inflow: 1.810 billion yuan [1] - **Petroleum and Chemical**: - Trading volume: 2.390 billion shares - Change in trading volume: +40.68% - Net capital inflow: 0.476 billion yuan [1] - **Electric Equipment**: - Trading volume: 14.641 billion shares - Change in trading volume: +4.29% - Net capital outflow: -17.743 billion yuan [2] - **Automobile**: - Trading volume: 5.188 billion shares - Change in trading volume: -7.75% - Net capital outflow: -3.000 billion yuan [2] - **Computer**: - Trading volume: 5.115 billion shares - Change in trading volume: -7.21% - Net capital outflow: -6.711 billion yuan [2]

Macro Strategy Overview - The report indicates that the current bull market is experiencing a pause and is undergoing a phase of consolidation, with expectations of continued volatility in the near term [1][6]. - The U.S. Federal Reserve is likely to continue its interest rate cuts in December, with a high probability of a 25 basis point reduction, as inflation remains manageable and the job market shows signs of weakness [6][29]. - The economic performance in the first three quarters of 2025 has exceeded expectations, with GDP growth at 5.2%, but there are increasing pressures on domestic demand [6][43]. Overseas Economic Environment - Following the U.S.-China trade negotiations, tariffs on Chinese goods have been reduced by 10%, although ongoing tensions between the two countries are expected to persist [6][30]. - The overall impact of tariffs on U.S. inflation has been limited, with inflation expected to remain stable due to insufficient demand [6][20]. Domestic Economic Environment - Domestic consumption and investment are showing signs of decline, while external demand remains relatively strong, indicating a divergence in economic performance [6][43]. - The report highlights that the policy environment is expected to remain stable, with a focus on infrastructure investment to support economic growth [6][55]. A-Share Market Strategy - The A-share market is currently in a phase of consolidation, with a shift towards a more balanced investment style as external disturbances ease [7][12]. - The report suggests a cautious approach to investment in the A-share market, with a focus on sectors that are expected to benefit from technological innovation in the medium to long term [7][8]. Asset Allocation Insights - The report presents a neutral outlook for major asset classes, including A-shares, Hong Kong stocks, and U.S. stocks, indicating a shift from a relatively optimistic stance in previous reports [8]. - The recommendation is to adopt a balanced asset allocation strategy while remaining vigilant for opportunities in technology and other growth sectors [8][7].