The International Monetary Fund warned that Trump’s tax bill is likely to complicate the task of reducing the US fiscal deficit and debt burden in the coming years https://t.co/4JTiWewbc2 ...

美联储理事沃勒最新表示，他仍然认为今年晚些时候有可能降息，因为他预计关税将推高失业率，并暂 时推高通胀。 6月2日，据彭博报道，美联储理事沃勒（Christopher Waller）在首尔举行的一场韩国央行会议上表示， 关税将在"未来几个月"推高通胀，支持在制定政策时，只要通胀预期保持稳定，就会忽略短期内价格上 涨的可能性。沃勒表示： "假设有效关税税率接近我的较低关税情形，潜在通胀继续朝着2%的目标取得进展，劳动力 市场保持稳健，将支持今年晚些时候实施'好消息式'的降息。" 这位美联储理事还在讲话中指出，财政赤字担忧加剧，将推高长期美债收益率。沃勒还还对稳定币发表 了看法，将其描述为向支付系统引入竞争的潜在工具。 通胀是暂时性的 据报道，这位美联储理事援引了他4月中旬的一次讲话，当时他概述了贸易政策可能展开的两种情形： "大关税"情形假设对商品征收平均25%的贸易加权关税，并维持一段时间。 "小关税"情形则假设10%的平均关税，且针对特定国家和行业的更高关税将随时间推移通过 谈判降低。 在两种情形下，沃勒都预期关税对通胀的影响将是暂时的。沃勒表示， "自（4月中旬）那次讲话以来贸易谈判的进展让我的基本预期介 ...

Core Viewpoint - Moody's downgraded the U.S. government's credit rating from "Aaa" to "Aa1," marking it as the last major credit rating agency to do so, following S&P Global and Fitch [1][2] Group 1: Credit Rating Downgrade - The downgrade reflects concerns over growing fiscal deficits and elevated total debt, with the U.S. running over a $1.8 trillion deficit in fiscal year 2024 and having over $36 trillion in total debt [3][4] - Moody's indicated that the U.S. fiscal performance is likely to deteriorate compared to its past and other highly rated sovereigns, with expectations of larger deficits as entitlement spending rises [3][4] Group 2: Future Projections - Fiscal deficits could reach 9% of GDP by 2035, up from the current 6.4%, while total debt is projected to rise to approximately 134% of GDP, surpassing levels seen during World War II [4] - Annual interest payments on the debt, which accounted for 18% of revenue in 2024, are expected to increase to 30% by 2035 [4] Group 3: Legislative Impact - House Republicans' proposal to make temporary tax cuts permanent could add an estimated $4 trillion to the fiscal deficit over the next decade, excluding interest payments [6] Group 4: Market Reactions - Historical responses of the S&P 500 to previous credit downgrades show initial sell-offs followed by recoveries, indicating that the market may not react severely to the downgrade [7][10] - The muted market response to the recent downgrade may be attributed to prior warnings from Moody's and the established understanding of the U.S. debt situation [11]

The US – and the world – seems to have turned the page on tariffs. It now seems likely that total tariffs on US imports will settle between 14-17%: somewhere between 10-30% on China, 10% "reciprocal" tariffs on the rest of the world, and some sectoral tariffs (with exemptions). This is not a small rise relative to the start of the year. But it is a far cry from the situation just a week ago, when there was a virtual trade embargo between the world's two largest economies. It's time for investors to turn the ...

| ... 4CTONYMS . | | --- | | Preface & Acknowledgments. | | Public finance trends | | | --- | --- | | 1.1 | 1 | | Aggregate Fiscal Environment | 1 | | 1.2 | ব | | Revenue | ব | | 1.3 | | | Expenditure | | | Service Delivery | 10 | | --- | --- | | 2.1 | 10 | | Health Sector | 10 | | 2.2 | 14 | | Education Sector | 14 | | 2.3 | 20 | | Social Protection Sector | 20 | P. ii MYANMAR BUDGET BRIEF This version: March 2025 World Bank Myanmar COVER PAGE Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Publi ...

Thailand Monthly Economic Thailand Monthly Economic Monitor Monitor 22 April 2025 Thailand's economic activity showed mixed signals in February. Steady consumption and strong exports were offset by a sharp contraction in private investment due to rising uncertainty. Goods exports remained a key driver, bolstered by robust shipments to the US and China, in part due to frontloading amid rising global trade uncertainties. However, mounting risks from global trade uncertainty are a concern. The tourism recovery ...

报 告 正 文 民生领域支出前置发力。 开年财政数据延续紧平衡态势，1-2月一般公共预算收入同比不及去年全年，亦低于 0.1%的狭义财政预算增速，进度也低于近五年均值；而财政支出靠前发力的态势明显，1-2月一般公共预算支 出增速虽较历史同期偏低，但支出进度创2019年以来同期次高，反映了积极财政前置的力度。此外，开年财政 支出呈现两个特点， 一是 中央财政支出强势， 二是 投向民生领域的支出占比大幅抬升。 广义财政赤字规模创新高。 1-2月政府性基金预算收支均较疲弱；广义财政来看，1-2月广义财政收入、支出增 速分别为-2.9%、2.9%，收入增速不及去年同期，而支出略有回升，不过广义收支增速均不及预算目标，反映 了地产修复偏慢的背景下，广义财政收入的下行压力仍大，也对广义财政支出端构成制约。此外，开年广义财 政赤字达到6217亿元，创历史同期新高，体现出低收入下支出端的极限发力。往后看， 一方面， 经济增长基 础仍需巩固，财政收入预算目标的达成压力不小； 另一方面， 当前一季度新增专项债发行进度处于历年同期 较低位，特别国债或仍在筹备阶段，二季度政府债发行有望提速。 财政收入增速转负。 1-2月，全国一般公 ...