Key Takeaways JPMorgan, Bank of America and Goldman Sachs are set for rising fixed-income trading revenues ahead.Divergent global rate moves are driving portfolio rebalancing and higher trading activity.A rising fiscal deficit and steepening yield curve are boosting bond and derivatives trading.The interest-rate markets have been witnessing a surge in trading activities since the beginning of this year, with opportunities expected to continue into 2026. Several macro forces like interest-rate adjustments by ...

Hello everyone. I've got a very special treat for you today. We've got a conversation with Joseph Wei.Joseph is the principal at fedguy. com and he's also the author of the bestselling book central banking 101. This guy understands the Federal Reserve better than almost anyone I've ever talked to.He understands how they make decisions, what data they use, and how their decision-making impacts financial markets. And Joseph's going to explain all of that to us today, including what's he excited about in the f ...

Monetary Policy & Inflation - The Fed's 2% inflation target is considered by some to be above the original dual mandate, with a zero percent target preferred for pure price stability [2] - The Fed aims for stable inflation, but its track record in achieving this is questionable [3] - A little bit of deflation is considered a natural part of economic development due to technological and productivity improvements [6] - Current inflation measures, such as the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) indicator, may not accurately reflect the price inflation experienced by average American families [8] - The Fed's deliberate debasement of purchasing power necessitates inflation adjustments, creating confusion [9] Interest Rates & Economic Impact - The Fed's method of curbing inflation by restricting growth is questioned, particularly its reliance on Keynesian models that ignore the impact of lower taxes and less regulation on increasing supply [12][13] - High interest rates restrict access to capital, hindering real prosperity gained through the production of goods and services [15][21] - The Fed's actions empower the government at the expense of the private sector, especially small and medium-sized businesses [14] - Lowering rates is suggested to stimulate small business hiring by improving access to capital [21] Fiscal Policy & Government - Perpetual deficit spending is viewed as immoral and corrupt, creating purchasing power based on future, unproduced goods and services [16] - A balanced budget is crucial, and the inability to manage government finances is demoralizing [22][23] Alternative Monetary Solutions - A proposal suggests Treasury should issue a gold-backed long-term bond to compensate for losses in purchasing power, potentially competing with assets like Bitcoin [17] - Relinking the dollar to gold could be a cost-effective way for the government to borrow and signal a move towards sound finances [19][20]

Senators from Mexico’s ruling party approved the revenue portion of next year’s budget, including a slew of tax hikes that will boost income as the government also aims to narrow its 2026 fiscal deficit https://t.co/ggW6Mk0l9n ...

Core Viewpoint - Amundi's 2025 global investment outlook indicates a strong performance in the US stock market, while European markets are stabilizing, influenced by AI capital expenditure expectations and a dovish stance from the Federal Reserve [1] Group 1: Market Trends - The US stock market reached new highs in August, while European markets approached March levels, with corporate credit spreads narrowing during the summer [1] - Market sentiment is buoyed by strong earnings in the US and a relatively mild position from the Federal Reserve during the Jackson Hole meeting, despite underlying economic risks [1] Group 2: Interest Rates and Fiscal Policies - Key themes for the medium term include rising US inflation expectations, increased fiscal spending plans in the US and EU, and ongoing accommodative monetary policies, leading to rising yields across major economies [2] - The yield curve is steepening due to concerns over fiscal deficits, particularly in the US and Europe, with long-term yields expected to rise further due to pension reforms in some European countries [2] Group 3: Investment Strategy - Amid rising geopolitical risks, Amundi suggests diversifying investments away from the US market towards Europe and Japan, as Europe is better positioned to mitigate tariff-related shocks through fiscal and monetary policies [3] - The company emphasizes the importance of maintaining a focus on financially sound companies and special risks, while also capitalizing on opportunities arising from weak stock prices [3] Group 4: Emerging Markets - Emerging markets are showing signs of recovery, with improvements in economic conditions in countries like China and India, while Brazil and Indonesia's political situations are back in focus [4] - Internal tax reforms in countries like India are expected to boost domestic consumption, which is a key growth driver, and the overall positive outlook for emerging markets is supported by a dovish Federal Reserve [4] Group 5: Risk Assets and Economic Outlook - Despite a lack of extreme macroeconomic data in the US and Europe, Amundi maintains a cautious outlook on US economic growth due to deteriorating labor market conditions and potential consumption suppression from tariffs [5] - The company is slightly optimistic about risk assets, including emerging markets, and suggests allocating to gold and stock hedging tools to enhance protection against geopolitical risks and fiscal deterioration [5]

Chile’s government whacked up its estimate for this year’s fiscal deficit earlier this month. Economists are warning it’s still not enough to be totally realistic. https://t.co/jVoM7VuE3p ...

Colombia’s central bank defied pressure to cut interest rates after a surprise jump in inflation and a warning from the IMF about the gaping fiscal deficit. https://t.co/nPWWZjDDgp ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the fiscal performance of the Chinese government, highlighting the slowdown in both revenue and expenditure growth in August 2023 amid weaker economic activity and ongoing PPI deflation [1][2][3]. Core Insights 1. **Fiscal Revenue and Expenditure Growth**: - Fiscal revenue growth slowed to +2.0% year-on-year (yoy) in August from +2.6% in July, while fiscal expenditure growth decreased to +0.8% yoy from +3.0% in July [2][3]. - Tax revenue growth fell to +3.4% yoy in August from +5.0% in July, primarily due to a decline in consumption and individual income tax revenues [3]. 2. **Property-Related Revenue Decline**: - Property-related government revenue resumed its decline, with land sales revenue falling by 5.4% yoy in August compared to a 6.9% increase in July [2][7]. - The overall government revenue from the property sector contracted by 7.0% yoy in August, reflecting a significant downturn in housing demand and funding challenges for property developers [7][9]. 3. **Augmented Fiscal Deficit (AFD)**: - The AFD widened to -12.3% of GDP on a 3-month moving average (3mma) and -11.7% on a 12-month moving average (12mma) as of August, compared to -11.6% and -11.4% in July [3][8]. - The widening AFD is expected to continue in the coming months, influenced by government bond issuance and targeted easing measures [9]. 4. **Government Spending and Policy Outlook**: - The slowdown in government spending growth and the accumulation of fiscal deposits indicate that policymakers are not rushing to implement stimulus measures despite resilient export performance [9]. - Incremental and targeted easing is deemed necessary due to sluggish domestic demand and ongoing weaknesses in labor and property markets [9]. Additional Important Points - The effective fiscal deficit ratio, after seasonal adjustments, was reported at -4.5% of GDP (3mma) and -5.0% (12mma) as of August, reflecting a slight improvement from July figures [3]. - The report notes a significant increase in stamp tax revenue from stock trading, which surged to +226% yoy in August, although it constituted less than 1% of total fiscal revenue [6]. This summary encapsulates the critical financial metrics and trends affecting the Chinese government's fiscal landscape, providing insights into potential investment opportunities and risks within the broader economic context.

Group 1 - The approach has received over 190 five-star reviews from members who are experiencing benefits [1] - The company invests significant resources, over $100,000 annually, into researching profitable investment opportunities [1] - High-yield strategies are offered at a fraction of the cost to members [1] Group 2 - Samuel Smith has a diverse background in dividend stock research and is a lead analyst in the High Yield Investor group [2] - The team focuses on balancing safety, growth, yield, and value in their investment strategies [2] - High Yield Investor provides real-money portfolios, trade alerts, educational content, and an active community for investors [2]

Group 1 - Ongoing fiscal deficit concerns are impacting the potential for long-term Treasuries, with weakening global demand and recent policies from Trump contributing to this situation [1] - The front end of the yield curve has dropped significantly, while the long end remains elevated, indicating a divergence in market expectations [1] Group 2 - The article emphasizes the importance of fundamental equity research and macro strategy in understanding market dynamics [1]