India's external balance and government finances could be hit if oil prices stay high foran extended period, economists have said, as the Iran war pushesup oil import ​costs and the subsidies needed to keep keycommodities affordable.India is considered to be among the most ‌vulnerable to aglobal oil shock as it imports nearly 90% of its ​cruderequirements and about 50% of its gas requirements. Over half ofits crude ⁠is from the Middle East, where export flows have beendisrupted by the U.S.-Israeli war on Ir ...

Core Viewpoint - India's external balance and government finances are at risk due to high oil prices driven by the ongoing conflict in Iran, which could lead to increased oil import costs and necessary subsidies for key commodities [1][3]. Current Account Deficit - India is highly vulnerable to global oil shocks, importing nearly 90% of its crude and about 50% of its gas, with current oil stocks sufficient for only 20 to 25 days [2]. - An average oil price of $100 per barrel could widen India's current account deficit to 1.9%-2.2% of GDP for the 2026/27 financial year, up from a projected 0.7%-0.8% [4]. Fiscal Deficit - The federal government's annual expenditure may increase by 3.6 trillion rupees ($39 billion) if oil prices average $100 per barrel, with total estimated expenditure for the next financial year at 53.5 trillion rupees [5]. - Fertilizer subsidies could rise by 200 billion rupees, and the government may need to compensate oil marketing companies to keep retail fuel prices low [6]. Growth and Inflation Impact - India's economy is projected to grow over 7% in the next financial year, but if oil prices remain around $100 per barrel, GDP growth could decline to 6.6% and inflation could rise to 4.1% [8]. - If oil prices average $130 per barrel, GDP growth could drop further to 6% [8].

Colombia’s finance ministry forecast a narrowing fiscal deficit this year due to lower spending and debt service costs https://t.co/oCVrbIxUoI ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the Chinese economy and its macroeconomic policies as discussed during the National People's Congress (NPC) meetings in 2026, emphasizing technology and infrastructure as key areas of focus [1][6][11]. Core Insights and Arguments - **GDP Growth Target**: The GDP growth target remains around 5%, despite some provinces lowering their growth targets. There is speculation that the national target could be adjusted to 4.5-5%, but this is considered unlikely [3][11]. - **Policy Stance**: The policy approach is characterized as "supportive but not aggressive," indicating a cautious stance towards economic stimulus. The broad fiscal deficit is expected to remain at 11.6% of GDP, with the official deficit rate stable at 4% [3][11]. - **Fiscal Policy**: Initial fiscal measures are expected to be on par with the previous year, with a focus on technology and infrastructure. Support for consumption and real estate is described as moderate [1][11][15]. - **Supplementary Budget**: If economic momentum weakens, there may be a supplementary budget of 0.5% of GDP introduced mid-year to support certain service consumption and social welfare expenditures [3][11][15]. Additional Important Content - **Focus on Technology and Infrastructure**: The NPC meetings highlight a continued emphasis on self-sufficiency in technology and infrastructure development, with public spending prioritized in these areas [1][15][16]. - **Consumer Support Measures**: The anticipated consumer support measures are expected to be around 500-600 billion RMB, targeting specific areas such as trade-in programs and social welfare enhancements [11][15]. - **Real Estate Policy**: Following the NPC, there may be pilot programs for mortgage interest subsidies in select cities, reflecting a cautious approach to real estate support [11][15]. - **Future Macro Goals**: The upcoming five-year plan may shift from setting GDP growth targets to establishing quantitative goals in areas like AI, technology self-sufficiency, and green transformation [11][16]. - **Industry Development Blueprint**: Key sectors such as artificial intelligence, semiconductors, green energy, and biotechnology are expected to remain priorities, with a potential shift in industrial policy towards enhancing research ecosystems and promoting healthy competition [11][16]. This summary encapsulates the main themes and insights from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current economic outlook and policy direction in China.

Core Insights - Saudi Arabia is significantly increasing its foreign reserves, reaching 1.7 trillion riyals ($453 billion) in January, the highest level since 2022, primarily driven by oil revenues and a new strategy of bond issuance [2][4][5] Group 1: Reserve Accumulation - The rise in Saudi Arabia's foreign assets is attributed to both oil revenues and increased foreign borrowing through Eurobonds, which initially boosts reserves but also increases liabilities [4][6] - The Kingdom's strategy marks a shift from previous practices of using reserves to fund budget deficits, now opting for external borrowing to preserve sovereign assets [7] Group 2: Economic Context - As the largest crude exporter, Saudi Arabia's external accounts are highly sensitive to fluctuations in energy prices and export volumes, with a nearly 30% annual increase in foreign currency inflows benefiting the reserves [5][6] - The current accumulation of reserves suggests a focus on building a financial buffer, contrasting with past reliance on depleting reserves during periods of low oil prices [7][8]

The government has delivered a budget that sharpens Prime Minister Modi's strategy of shielding the economy from U.S. tariffs while maintaining fiscal restraint. The budget focuses on reducing the fiscal deficit and inflation control. The budget also harmonizes high capital expenditure and high growth.This budget reinforces India's global role. Let's bring in Bloomberg's Asia Pacific Reporters Swati Pandey for more on this. So Swati, what were the key takeaways from the budget.This budget was really highly ...

Chile’s fiscal deficit exceeded the government’s target for the third year in a row in 2025, as President-elect Jose Antonio Kast prepares to take office in March with pledges to slash billions from spending https://t.co/UhH41ZuEDU ...

The prior mayoral administration has left us with a12 billion dollar fiscal deficit. And this is at a scale that's actually greater than what we saw here in New York City during the great recession. And it's something that is attributable to gross fiscal mismanagement, to a refusal to actually budget honestly and be direct with New Yorkers.And that's what we're going to actually do today. >> Okay. So the big question is assuming that that is the hole, how do you fix the hole.>> Well, I think the first way i ...

Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman’s Feb. 1 budget may set the gross borrowing 11% higher at 16.5 trillion rupees ($180 billion) in the fiscal year starting April 1, according to the median estimate of 21 economists in a Bloomberg survey.The rise, driven by large debt maturities of about 5.5 trillion rupees, comes as heavy state government issuance pushes up yields. Higher Net borrowing, which excludes repayments, will be a tad higher at 11.6 trillion rupees, according to the poll. While economists expect ...

Fiscal Deficit and Economic Projections - The fiscal deficit is estimated at 4.2% of GDP for FY27, with the government's borrowing cost expected to be between 6.8-7% [1] - Nominal GDP growth for FY27 is projected at 10.5-11%, influenced by rising international commodity prices affecting wholesale inflation [1] - Capital expenditure is projected to exceed ₹12 lakh crore in FY27, reflecting a year-on-year growth rate of 10% [1] Tax Revenue and Borrowing Trends - Personal income-tax collections are expected to continue surpassing corporate tax collections in the FY27 Budget [2] - Gross market borrowing over the next five fiscal years is estimated at ₹93.8-95.2 lakh crore, indicating a need for alternative borrowing sources such as small savings [2] Medium-term Fiscal Strategy - The central government has established a medium-term fiscal consolidation roadmap, aiming to reduce the debt-to-GDP ratio to 56.1% in FY26 from 57.1% in FY25 [5] - The government is committed to a declining trajectory for central government debt towards around 50% (± 1%) of GDP by March 2031, barring major external shocks [5] - The report recommends that state governments adopt medium-term, scenario-based debt-to-GSDP paths aligned with realistic growth assumptions and development needs [5]