20 October 2025 | 2:00PM HKT Economics Research China: September industrial production beat while investment missed; 2025/26 GDP forecasts adjusted to 4.9%/4.3% Bottom line: China's Q3 GDP report came in marginally above market consensus (though in line with our forecast) amid mixed September activity data — industrial production (IP) meaningfully beat market expectations, retail sales was in line, while fixed asset investment (FAI) missed notably, reflecting that the economy remains bifurcated. Real GDP gr ...

#数据 中国第三季度GDP同比增速为四个季度以来最低，社会消费品零售销售同比增幅为去年11月以来最低。1-9月固定资产投资累计同比增速为超过5年来首次转负。外汇交易员 (@myfxtrader):#数据 中国第三季度GDP年率4.8%，前值5.2%。9月规模以上工业增加值同比增6.5%，预期5.0%；9月社会消费品零售总额同比增3.0%，预期3.0%；9月城镇调查失业率5.2%，预期5.3%；1-9月城镇固定资产投资同比增-0.5%，预期0.1%。 https://t.co/RdrokL5NmU ...

财税金融稳定增长。1-8月，一般公共预算收入302.99亿元，同比增长2.6%。税收总收入806.28亿元，下 降1.7%；其中国内税收596.89亿元，增幅与上年持平。8月末，金融机构本外币存款余额9657.99亿元， 增长1.1%；金融机构本外币贷款余额11295.21亿元，增长3.5%。 居民消费价格总体稳定。1-8月，居民消费价格指数（CPI）同比下降0.7%。消费品价格指数同比下降 0.6%。从八大类构成看，食品烟酒类下降0.3%，衣着类上涨6.7%，居住类下降1.0%，生活用品及服务 类下降0.8%，交通通信类下降3.5%，教育文化娱乐类下降1.3%，医疗保健类下降0.1%，其他用品及服 务类上涨2.7%。 采写 南都N视频记者 杨振华 固定资产投资有所下降。1-8月，固定资产投资同比下降22.9%。分行业看，文化、体育和娱乐业投资增 长79.4%，科学研究和技术服务业投资增长45.0%，公共管理、社会保障和社会组织投资增长2.1%；水 利、环境和公共设施管理业投资下降22.7%，卫生和社会工作投资下降20.7%，制造业投资下降12.3%， 交通运输、仓储和邮政业投资下降4.7%。新建商品房销售面 ...

Economic Indicators - China's fixed asset investment reading for July was the weakest since at least the late 1990s, excluding the Covid period [1]

Economic Indicators - China's July industrial production increased by 57% year-over-year, below the expected 59% [1] - Retail sales in China increased by 37% year-over-year in July, also below the expected 46% [1] - The surveyed urban unemployment rate in China was 52% in July, higher than the expected 51% [1] - Fixed asset investment in urban areas of China increased by 16% year-to-date through July, below the expected 27% [1]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The focus is on China's fiscal outlook for the second half of 2025, particularly in the context of macroeconomic conditions and government policy responses. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Moderate Policy Easing**: China's policy easing has been characterized as moderate, targeted, and patient, with less urgency for broad-based stimulus measures due to stronger-than-expected export growth and resilient GDP growth in H1 2025 [4][5][33]. 2. **Fiscal Conditions Improvement**: Fiscal conditions have improved significantly in H1 2025, driven by a RMB10 trillion local government debt resolution plan and an expansionary budget. On-budget fiscal expenditure grew by 3.4% year-on-year, while fiscal revenue declined by 0.3% [6][39]. 3. **Augmented Fiscal Deficit (AFD)**: The AFD metric widened to 11.3% of GDP as of June 2025, indicating a shift from a fiscal drag in the previous year to a moderate growth boost this year [6][39]. 4. **Fiscal Space for H2**: There remains substantial fiscal policy room, including RMB5 trillion in unused government bond issuance quota and over RMB1 trillion in unspent fiscal deposits, which could be utilized if necessary [21][39]. 5. **Sectoral Weaknesses**: Despite overall fiscal improvements, weaknesses persist in the property market and labor market, with land sales revenue under pressure and local government financing vehicles (LGFVs) facing challenges [9][10][39]. 6. **Forecast Adjustments**: The AFD forecast for 2025 has been lowered to 12.5% of GDP from 13.0%, and fixed asset investment (FAI) growth forecast has been reduced to 3% from 5% due to weaker-than-expected H1 performance [39][54]. Additional Important Insights 1. **Youth Unemployment Concerns**: There is a caution regarding a potential increase in youth unemployment rates during the summer months, which may necessitate targeted policy support [34][36]. 2. **Incremental Easing Measures**: Policymakers are expected to implement incremental easing measures in H2 2025, focusing on consumption and investment support, including a consumer goods trade-in program and infrastructure investments [45][47]. 3. **Local Government Incentives**: Local officials' incentives to boost growth may be hindered by ongoing anti-corruption investigations, which could impact the implementation of fiscal policies [47][51]. 4. **Investment Growth Projections**: Infrastructure investment growth is projected to moderate to 6% in 2025, while property investment is expected to remain depressed at -11% year-on-year [54][56]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call regarding China's fiscal outlook and the implications for various sectors and overall economic growth.

Economic Growth - China's second quarter GDP growth was 53%, exceeding expectations of 51% [1] - June's industrial added value above designated size increased by 68% year-on-year, exceeding expectations of 56% [1] Consumption - June's total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 48% year-on-year, falling short of the expected 56% [1] Employment - June's surveyed urban unemployment rate was 50%, meeting expectations [1] Investment - From January to June, urban fixed asset investment increased by 28% year-on-year, falling short of the expected 37% [1]

Core Viewpoint - Steel Dynamics, Inc. (STLD) reported a decline in earnings per share for the first quarter of 2025, but exceeded consensus estimates, indicating resilience despite challenging market conditions [1][2]. Financial Performance - Earnings per share for Q1 2025 were $1.44, down from $3.67 year-over-year, but above the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.40 [1]. - Net sales decreased by approximately 6.9% year-over-year to $4,369.2 million, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $4,146.2 million [1]. - Steel operations net sales were $3,067 million, down around 8.9% year-over-year, with steel shipments of approximately 3.5 million tons, slightly above the estimate of 3.45 million tons [2]. - The average external product selling price for steel was $998 per ton, down from $1,201 per ton year-over-year and $1,011 per ton in the previous quarter, missing the estimate of $1,019 per ton [3]. - Metal recycling operations generated net sales of $534.9 million, up 5.4% year-over-year, with ferrous shipments stable at around 1.45 million gross tons, below the estimate of 1.49 million gross tons [4]. - Steel fabrication operations reported sales of approximately $352.3 million, down 21.2% year-over-year, with shipments of 135,581 tons, exceeding the estimate of 126,841 tons [5]. - Cash and cash equivalents at the end of the quarter were $1,186.9 million, up 14.1% year-over-year, while long-term debt increased by 44.6% to $3,777.1 million [6]. Industry Outlook - The company maintains a positive outlook on domestic steel demand, expecting it to remain strong through 2025 and beyond, supported by improved order activity and strengthening steel prices [7]. - Strong demand for U.S.-produced, lower-carbon steel products and reduced import levels are anticipated to support pricing and demand [8]. - The ongoing trend of onshoring manufacturing and expected investments in fixed assets are seen as key factors enhancing the competitiveness of the domestic steel industry [8]. - Recent preliminary determinations by the International Trade Commission on coated flat-rolled steel are expected to help curb unfair imports, benefiting STLD as the largest non-automotive flat-rolled steel coater in the U.S. [9]. Price Performance - Shares of Steel Dynamics have decreased by 9.6% over the past year, compared to a 39.9% decline in its industry [11].