Among China’s striking set of economic indicators for July was the weakest reading on fixed asset investment — outside of Covid — since at least the late 1990s https://t.co/Mn9YUSIq3K ...

#数据 中国7月规模以上工业增加值同比增5.7%，预期5.9%；7月社会消费品零售总额同比增3.7%，预期4.6%；7月城镇调查失业率5.2%，预期5.1%；1-7月城镇固定资产投资同比增1.6%，预期2.7%。 https://t.co/YCKATEchtx ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The focus is on China's fiscal outlook for the second half of 2025, particularly in the context of macroeconomic conditions and government policy responses. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Moderate Policy Easing**: China's policy easing has been characterized as moderate, targeted, and patient, with less urgency for broad-based stimulus measures due to stronger-than-expected export growth and resilient GDP growth in H1 2025 [4][5][33]. 2. **Fiscal Conditions Improvement**: Fiscal conditions have improved significantly in H1 2025, driven by a RMB10 trillion local government debt resolution plan and an expansionary budget. On-budget fiscal expenditure grew by 3.4% year-on-year, while fiscal revenue declined by 0.3% [6][39]. 3. **Augmented Fiscal Deficit (AFD)**: The AFD metric widened to 11.3% of GDP as of June 2025, indicating a shift from a fiscal drag in the previous year to a moderate growth boost this year [6][39]. 4. **Fiscal Space for H2**: There remains substantial fiscal policy room, including RMB5 trillion in unused government bond issuance quota and over RMB1 trillion in unspent fiscal deposits, which could be utilized if necessary [21][39]. 5. **Sectoral Weaknesses**: Despite overall fiscal improvements, weaknesses persist in the property market and labor market, with land sales revenue under pressure and local government financing vehicles (LGFVs) facing challenges [9][10][39]. 6. **Forecast Adjustments**: The AFD forecast for 2025 has been lowered to 12.5% of GDP from 13.0%, and fixed asset investment (FAI) growth forecast has been reduced to 3% from 5% due to weaker-than-expected H1 performance [39][54]. Additional Important Insights 1. **Youth Unemployment Concerns**: There is a caution regarding a potential increase in youth unemployment rates during the summer months, which may necessitate targeted policy support [34][36]. 2. **Incremental Easing Measures**: Policymakers are expected to implement incremental easing measures in H2 2025, focusing on consumption and investment support, including a consumer goods trade-in program and infrastructure investments [45][47]. 3. **Local Government Incentives**: Local officials' incentives to boost growth may be hindered by ongoing anti-corruption investigations, which could impact the implementation of fiscal policies [47][51]. 4. **Investment Growth Projections**: Infrastructure investment growth is projected to moderate to 6% in 2025, while property investment is expected to remain depressed at -11% year-on-year [54][56]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call regarding China's fiscal outlook and the implications for various sectors and overall economic growth.

#数据 中国第二季度GDP增速5.3%，预期5.1%，前值5.4%，6月规模以上工业增加值同比增6.8%，预期5.6%；6月社会消费品零售总额同比增4.8%，预期5.6%；6月城镇调查失业率5.0%，预期5.0%；1-6月城镇固定资产投资同比增2.8%，预期3.7%。 https://t.co/xDXwRKY4eA ...

Core Viewpoint - Steel Dynamics, Inc. (STLD) reported a decline in earnings per share for the first quarter of 2025, but exceeded consensus estimates, indicating resilience despite challenging market conditions [1][2]. Financial Performance - Earnings per share for Q1 2025 were $1.44, down from $3.67 year-over-year, but above the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.40 [1]. - Net sales decreased by approximately 6.9% year-over-year to $4,369.2 million, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $4,146.2 million [1]. - Steel operations net sales were $3,067 million, down around 8.9% year-over-year, with steel shipments of approximately 3.5 million tons, slightly above the estimate of 3.45 million tons [2]. - The average external product selling price for steel was $998 per ton, down from $1,201 per ton year-over-year and $1,011 per ton in the previous quarter, missing the estimate of $1,019 per ton [3]. - Metal recycling operations generated net sales of $534.9 million, up 5.4% year-over-year, with ferrous shipments stable at around 1.45 million gross tons, below the estimate of 1.49 million gross tons [4]. - Steel fabrication operations reported sales of approximately $352.3 million, down 21.2% year-over-year, with shipments of 135,581 tons, exceeding the estimate of 126,841 tons [5]. - Cash and cash equivalents at the end of the quarter were $1,186.9 million, up 14.1% year-over-year, while long-term debt increased by 44.6% to $3,777.1 million [6]. Industry Outlook - The company maintains a positive outlook on domestic steel demand, expecting it to remain strong through 2025 and beyond, supported by improved order activity and strengthening steel prices [7]. - Strong demand for U.S.-produced, lower-carbon steel products and reduced import levels are anticipated to support pricing and demand [8]. - The ongoing trend of onshoring manufacturing and expected investments in fixed assets are seen as key factors enhancing the competitiveness of the domestic steel industry [8]. - Recent preliminary determinations by the International Trade Commission on coated flat-rolled steel are expected to help curb unfair imports, benefiting STLD as the largest non-automotive flat-rolled steel coater in the U.S. [9]. Price Performance - Shares of Steel Dynamics have decreased by 9.6% over the past year, compared to a 39.9% decline in its industry [11].