本文来自微信公众号： 秦朔朋友圈 （ID：qspyq2015） ，作者：黄凡，题图来自：AI生成 一年前，随着宏观政策的全面转向，我们的股市开始转势向上，逐步成了全球市场中的最亮点。从 2024年"924"行情以来，代表中国资产的主要指数，从创业板到科创板，从传统沪深市场到新兴北交 所，均处于全球遥遥领先地位。 （如下图，东方财富网数据） 当前A股市场中，人工智能AI产业相关赛道是近期的最热点，其中"易中天"和"纪连海"这两个由投资 者创意组合的概念，成了科技股行情中备受瞩目的焦点。它们分别代表了AI算力产业链上的不同环 节，其强劲上涨反映了市场对人工智能产业的高度热情。 "易中天"组合的新易盛、中际旭创、天孚通信涵盖光模块与通信设备 （AI算力的"出海链"） ，直接 受益于全球AI基础设施建设需求；而"纪连海"组合的寒武纪、工业富联、海光信息覆盖AI芯片与服 务器 （国产算力的"国产链"） ，聚焦于芯片自主可控和国内AI生态崛起。 在万千新生代投资人的追捧下，"易中天"和"纪连海"相关龙头股涨幅巨大。例如，寒武纪股价在短时 间内显著上涨，股价一度超越贵州茅台成为"A股股王"，工业富联市值更是突破万亿。 在整 ...

Summary of Brookfield Business Partners (NYSE: BBU) 2025 Investor Day Company Overview - Brookfield Business Partners (BBU) aims to provide public investors access to Brookfield's global private equity strategy, focusing on operational improvements and value creation initiatives [3][4] - The company has achieved a gross internal rate of return (IRR) of 26% and a net IRR of 20% over 25 years [3] Financial Performance - BBU reported record EBITDA of $2.7 billion, reflecting a 16% compounded annual growth rate over the last five years [64] - EBITDA margins have doubled from 12% to 24% [64] - Adjusted earnings from operations (EFO) per unit increased from $3.65 to $6.90 [64] - The company exceeded its target of generating $2 billion in proceeds from capital recycling initiatives within 12 months [66] - The net asset value (NAV) has doubled from $28 in 2020 to $54 today, indicating strong operational quality and value creation [72][73] Investment Strategy - BBU focuses on margin expansion and operational improvements to enhance NAV [4][5] - The company has initiated a buyback program, utilizing $250 million to repurchase shares at accretive levels [7] - BBU has invested in three market-leading businesses, including Chemelex, Antilia Scientific, and First National Financial Corporation, totaling $525 million [66][67] Market Opportunities - The company sees a $7 trillion opportunity for investment in AI infrastructure and anticipates $2 to $4 trillion in annual productivity improvements across industries due to AI [11][12] - BBU is actively creating an AI value creation office with over 30 dedicated personnel to implement AI use cases across its portfolio [13] Financial Infrastructure Sector - The financial services and technology sector is identified as needing significant capital, with a $4 trillion market opportunity [20] - BBU aims to invest in asset-light financial services and technology, focusing on software and services rather than traditional banking [23] - The company has invested over $7 billion in the financial services and technology space, targeting market leaders in need of operational change [24] Corporate Structure Simplification - BBU plans to simplify its corporate structure by combining BBULP units and BBUC exchangeable shares into one publicly traded Canadian corporation, enhancing trading liquidity and passive index participation [9][10] Key Takeaways - BBU is committed to increasing NAV and narrowing the discount to NAV in its stock price through operational improvements and strategic investments [76] - The company is leveraging AI and digitalization to transform its businesses and improve margins [76] - BBU's operational expertise positions it well to capitalize on the evolving financial infrastructure landscape, which is transitioning from analog to digital and AI-driven systems [18][32]

Performance & Valuation - Brookfield Business Partners (BBU) has demonstrated exceptional returns with a gross IRR of 26% and a net IRR of 20%[6] - BBUC's total return is +95%, BBU's is +84%, and the S&P 500 is +59%[10] - The company believes it is trading at a significant discount, with a current trading price of $28 per unit compared to a net asset value of $54 per unit, representing a +90% difference[12] - The company has exceeded its capital recycling targets, achieving $2.1 billion in the last 12 months against a $2 billion target over 24 months[66] - Net Asset Value per Unit has doubled from $28 in 2020 to $54 today[108] Strategic Initiatives - BBU plans to convert into one publicly traded corporation in Q1 2026, with a 1:1 conversion of BBU LP units and BBUC exchangeable shares[20] - The conversion into a single corporation is expected to improve consolidated trading liquidity by +50% and increase index demand by 2x[23, 24] - The company has invested $4 billion from 2021 to today, $1 billion from 2010-15, $7 billion from 2016-20, and $1 billion in the early 2000s[28] Financial Highlights - Adjusted EBITDA has increased from $1.3 billion in 2020 to $2.7 billion today, representing a 16% CAGR[63] - Adjusted EFO per Unit has increased from $3.65 in 2020 to $6.90 today, representing a 14% CAGR[63] - The company has $2.9 billion in corporate liquidity[76]

What problems does Intel have that money solves. Well, look, I mean, when you think about, first of all, innovation, I mean, now with Nvidia being a backer, I mean, that's something that's important because, look, I mean, you talked about some of the issues that Intel has had. You now have the government backing Gavin Vedere, bringing them into the IBM.Look, they are the comeback kid Intel. So could Apple do a deal with them. I think anything's on the table right now because also the issues also get you in ...

Group 1: UBS's Potential Relocation - UBS Group AG is considering relocating its headquarters to the United States due to new capital requirement proposals from the Swiss government, which could require an additional $26 billion in core capital following its acquisition of Credit Suisse [3][9] - Senior UBS executives have engaged with U.S. officials to discuss a strategic shift that may involve acquiring a U.S. bank or pursuing a merger, while emphasizing the need to protect shareholder interests [4][9] Group 2: U.S. Immigration Policy Impact - U.S. President Donald Trump has welcomed foreign experts and investments, provided they comply with U.S. immigration laws, following a controversial ICE raid at a Hyundai-LG electric vehicle battery plant in Georgia that resulted in the detention of over 300 South Korean nationals [5][6][9] - The incident has raised concerns in South Korea, potentially affecting future direct investments in the U.S., especially given South Korea's recent commitment to invest $350 billion in the U.S. [6] Group 3: China's Economic Strategy - China is positioning itself as a leader in the new global economic order, with data being referred to as the "new oil" for the 21st century, and is expected to lead the Fourth Industrial Revolution by 2030 [7] - Concurrently, China is stockpiling crude oil, having increased its reserves by 106 million barrels between February and August, which is significant in light of forecasts indicating a global oil supply surplus [8][9]

Core Insights - The recent Consumer Price Index (CPI) data was higher than expected, indicating ongoing inflationary pressures, which complicates the Federal Reserve's decision-making process regarding interest rates [2][4][10] - The market is anticipating a 25 basis point rate cut, with expectations for three cuts by the end of 2025, reflecting pressure on the Fed to respond to labor market conditions and inflation [5][6][12] - There are concerns about stagflation, as interest costs are projected to grow faster than GDP, which is only expected to grow at 1-2% [20][21] Inflation and Monetary Policy - The core CPI remained flat, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) dipped slightly, suggesting mixed signals for inflation [2][4] - The Fed is under pressure to ease monetary policy, which could lead to elevated inflation levels in the future [4][10][14] - The market is pricing in expectations for multiple rate cuts, indicating a belief that the Fed will need to act to support the labor market [5][6][12] Labor Market Dynamics - The Fed has shifted focus back to the labor market after a prolonged period of robust job growth, which may influence future monetary policy decisions [3][10] - Seasonal hiring trends during the holiday period may temporarily boost labor market numbers, but these are expected to be transitory [10][12] Tariff Implications - The impact of tariffs on inflation is uncertain, as they could either raise prices or reduce demand, potentially leading to deflation [16][17][18] - The resolution of trade policies, particularly with China, will be crucial in determining the long-term effects of tariffs on the economy [19] Economic Growth Concerns - There are significant concerns about stagflation, as interest costs are projected to outpace economic growth, which could hinder overall economic stability [20][21][22] - The potential for AI and the fourth industrial revolution to drive economic growth is seen as a critical factor in overcoming current economic challenges [22]

Tokenization and Real World Assets (RWAs) - Tokenized value on chain is nearly $26 billion, and is expected to grow [3] - BlackRock is heavily involved in tokenization, with almost $3 billion on chain through its USD Institutional Digital Liquidity Fund [9] - BlackRock believes the next step is tokenization of financial assets, including stocks and bonds, on a general ledger with individual investor identification [11] - BlackRock CEO Larry Fink sees tokenization as a technological transformation for financial assets, enabling instantaneous settlement and customized strategies [12] Digital Identity and Control - A coordinated digital identity verification system is considered necessary for the tokenization revolution [19] - The financial services industry is focusing on building a zero-trust framework for identification, raising concerns about digital IDs [23] - The combination of tokenization and digital IDs could enable tracking of all transactions [25] CBDCs and Stablecoins - Stablecoins are viewed as a way to circumvent the ban on Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs) in the US, effectively functioning as CBDCs [6][7] - Stablecoins are becoming increasingly significant, making up over 1% of the global M2 supply [9] Fourth Industrial Revolution and WEF - Tokenization and blockchain are part of the Fourth Industrial Revolution, supported by organizations like the World Economic Forum (WEF) [20][21] - BlackRock is a partner of the WEF and is actively pushing tokenization [22] Regulatory Landscape - SEC Chair Paul Atkins supports tokenization as an innovation and aims to make regulations transparent to foster innovation in the marketplace [27][28] - The SEC is seen as shifting towards supporting tokenization to enhance efficiency and certainty in trade settlement [29][30] Potential Risks and Concerns - Big players may be weaponizing tokenization technology [1] - Universal basic income and digital IDs are linked to the acceleration of AI and automation [5] - Cyber security challenges, particularly digital verification, pose a significant obstacle to the widespread adoption of tokenization [18]

Group 1: Cognex - Cognex has faced cyclical weakness in its main end markets, particularly in automotive, consumer electronics, and logistics, leading to reduced capital spending [3][4] - Despite revenue fluctuations, Cognex is expected to return to aggressive growth, targeting 10% to 11% annual organic growth through the cycle, driven by the increasing adoption of machine vision and AI [6][10] - The relevance of machine vision technology is expected to grow with advancements in AI and deep learning, enhancing its applications beyond traditional rules-based systems [7][9] Group 2: Hexcel - Hexcel's business prospects are promising due to substantial backlogs from Boeing and Airbus, with 8,754 and over 5,900 aircraft deliveries expected over the next decade, respectively [11] - The company is also involved in the eVTOL market and modern business jets, with ship set values ranging from $200,000 to $500,000, and composite materials usage increasing with new aircraft generations [12] - While Hexcel faces near-term challenges due to supply chain issues affecting production rates, the long-term outlook remains strong as these issues are expected to be resolved [13] Group 3: Tesla - Tesla's electric vehicle sales have declined, influenced by the removal of EV tax credits and increased competition, particularly affecting Model Y sales [14] - The rollout of Tesla's robotaxi and unsupervised full self-driving (FSD) services presents significant growth potential, which could enhance the value of its EVs [15][16] - Tesla's market position in the U.S. EV sector remains strong, and the company continues to gather data to improve its FSD, although risks associated with the rollout could impact stock performance [17]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that artificial intelligence is anticipated to drive the "fourth industrial revolution," with projections indicating that AI and its market verticals will grow over 30% annually for the next decade [1] - TQP Research adopts a value-oriented investment approach, focusing on identifying businesses that align with long-term success criteria as taught by renowned investors like Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger [1] - Investment topics covered by TQP Research include market analysis, macroeconomic trends, large-cap blue chip companies, and undervalued micro-cap and small-cap stocks that are often overlooked by institutional investors [1] Group 2 - TQP Research emphasizes active engagement with the community, encouraging questions and ideas from members [1]

Core Insights - The Fourth Industrial Revolution is transforming industries through enhanced efficiency, automation, and connectivity, driven by technologies like AI, IoT, and 5G [1][2] - Companies that leverage these technologies are positioned to attract investment, as they are expected to generate significant profits [2] Industry Overview - The IoT is experiencing a double-digit CAGR, with projections estimating growth at 13% CAGR through 2030 and global industry value reaching over $170 billion by 2030 [3] - 5G networks are critical for the IoT's expansion, expected to reach critical mass by 2025, facilitating device growth and connectivity [9][8] Company Highlights - Rockwell Automation and Zebra Technologies are identified as leaders in remote and manufacturing technologies, benefiting from the IoT's growth [6][5] - Verizon Communications is a key player in the 5G space, with its devices business showing a 15% sequential growth and 25% year-over-year growth [9][8] - NVIDIA is highlighted as a critical player in AI, providing essential infrastructure for AI models and services, while Microsoft is recognized for its software and AI capabilities, expected to sustain double-digit growth [13][14]