Group 1: Dollar Index - The possibility of Trump firing Powell has decreased, alleviating pressure on the dollar [7] - The U.S. Treasury's TGA financing is accelerating, leading to tightening liquidity which may support the dollar [9] - The dollar index has potential for further rebound, with a first target around 101 [12] Group 2: Euro - The euro is experiencing weakness due to a divergence in economic fundamentals between the U.S. and the Eurozone [19][21] - A recent trade agreement between the U.S. and the EU has temporarily avoided a large-scale trade dispute, but the 15% tariff still poses risks [21] - The euro's effective exchange rate has reached a level that could negatively impact Eurozone export growth [21][23] Group 3: Pound Sterling - The UK economic surprise index has entered a downward cycle, increasing rate cut expectations and pressuring the pound against the euro [33] - The UK public sector net borrowing in June was £20.7 billion, exceeding expectations [37] - The Bank of England is likely to maintain a cautious approach to rate cuts due to conflicting economic signals [38] Group 4: Japanese Yen - The yen has depreciated significantly, driven by a reduction in long positions [47] - Expectations of a potential interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan have increased following a trade agreement with the U.S. [47] - Market sentiment remains cautious, with the yen's depreciation expected to continue until a rate hike is confirmed [47]