GDP缺口

Search documents
5月经济平稳增长表现出较强韧性
First Capital Securities· 2025-06-16 09:47
Economic Performance - In May, industrial added value increased by 5.8% year-on-year, exceeding the expected 5.7%, but down 0.3 percentage points from April[2] - The cumulative value from January to May is still 0.5 percentage points higher than the total for last year[2] - Retail sales of consumer goods in May grew by 5.1% year-on-year, surpassing the expected 4.9%, and up 1.3 percentage points from April[2] - Cumulative fixed asset investment growth from January to May was 3.7%, below the expected 4.0%, but still 0.5 percentage points higher than last year[2] Sector Analysis - Manufacturing sector investment from January to May saw a cumulative year-on-year growth of 8.5%, down 0.3 percentage points from January to April, and 0.7 percentage points lower than last year[10] - Infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) grew by 5.6%, down 0.2 percentage points from January to April, but up 1.2 percentage points from last year[10] - Real estate investment showed a decline of 10.7%, down 0.4 percentage points from January to April, and 0.1 percentage points lower than last year[10] Trade and Exports - In May, exports increased by 4.8% year-on-year, down 3.3 percentage points from April, while cumulative exports from January to May were up 0.2 percentage points from last year[11] - Imports decreased by 3.4%, down 3.2 percentage points from April, with cumulative imports down 12.3% from last year[11] - The trade surplus in May was $103.2 billion, a historical high, with a cumulative surplus of $471.9 billion from January to May, representing a year-on-year increase of 40%[11] Economic Challenges - The urban surveyed unemployment rate in May was 5.0%, slightly below the expected 5.1%, but youth unemployment remains high, affecting consumer confidence[4] - The CPI in May was -0.1%, indicating ongoing deflationary pressures, while the PPI was -3.3%[25] - Real estate sector challenges continue to impact overall economic growth, with new housing starts down 22.8% year-on-year from January to May[33]