The Trump administration secretly smuggled approximately 6,000 Starlink satellite internet terminals into Iran following the regime’s brutal crackdown on protesters last month, marking the first time Washington has directly sent the devices into the Islamic Republic.The State Department purchased nearly 7,000 terminals in earlier months, and sent them to anti-regime activists, after Iranian authorities killed thousands of demonstrators and imposed an almost complete internet blackout, according to senior U. ...

库存数据是观察供需平衡的重要窗口。商业库存的累积或去化直接反映市场紧平衡状态，而战略储备的释放或补充则体现政策层面的干预意 图。当前市场关注的焦点在于库存变化的季节性规律是否会被异常因素打破。 地缘政治风险始终是能源市场的潜在变量。主要产油地区的局势变化、运输通道的安全状况以及国际贸易关系的演变，都可能通过影响供应预 期而作用于价格。这种不确定性要求市场参与者在建立头寸时充分考虑风险溢价因素。 技术层面，油价在关键整数关口附近往往表现出较强的支撑或阻力特征。当前价格水平与展望报告的年度预期相比存在一定溢价，这种差异可 能反映了即期供需紧张或风险溢价的计入。随着季节性需求变化和新产能投放，价格向长期均衡水平回归的动力将持续存在。 能源市场的价格形成机制始终围绕供需基本面展开，但短期波动往往受到多重因素的叠加影响。美国能源信息署发布的短期展望报告为市场提 供了基准预期，其对2026年原油均价的预测成为分析当前价格水平的重要参照。 近期油价走势呈现出高波动特征。数据显示，布伦特原油价格在67美元至70美元区间震荡，单日内曾出现2%的跌幅，随后又迅速反弹。这种 剧烈波动反映了市场参与者在信息冲击下的快速调整行为。当价 ...

March WTI crude oil (CLH26) today is up +1.28 (+2.00%), and March RBOB gasoline (RBH26) is up +0.0331 (+1.691%). Crude oil and gasoline prices are moving higher today, with crude posting a 1.5-week high and gasoline posting a 2.75-month high.  Escalating US-Iran tensions are underpinning crude prices today after the Wall Street Journal said the US is considering seizing tankers with Iranian crude, and Axios reported that the US could send a second aircraft carrier strike group to the Middle East should nu ...

March WTI crude oil (CLH26) on Tuesday closed down -0.40 (-0.62%), and March RBOB gasoline (RBH26) closed down -0.0263 (-1.32%). Crude oil and gasoline prices settled lower on Tuesday after US retail sales in December unexpectedly stagnated, a sign of weakness in consumer spending that is bearish for economic growth and energy demand.  Losses in crude were limited on Tuesday after the dollar index  ($DXY) fell to a 1-week low.  Also, US-Iran tensions are adding a risk premium to crude prices. More News ...

March WTI crude oil (CLH26) today is down -0.33 (-0.51%), and March RBOB gasoline (RBH26) is down -0.0195 (-0.98%). Crude oil and gasoline prices are under pressure today on energy demand concerns after US retail sales in December unexpectedly stagnated, a sign of weakness in consumer spending that is bearish for economic growth and energy demand.  Losses in crude are limited after the dollar index  ($DXY) fell to a 1-week low today.  Also, US-Iran tensions are adding a risk premium to crude prices. Mo ...

Christian Mueller-Glissmann, CFA +44(20)7774-1714 | christian.mueller- glissmann@gs.com Goldman Sachs International Andrea Ferrario +44(20)7552-4353 | andrea.ferrario@gs.com Goldman Sachs International Alessandro Giglio +44(20)7051-6240 | alessandro.giglio@gs.com Goldman Sachs International Giovanni Ferrannini +44(20)7051-2589 | giovanni.ferrannini@gs.com Goldman Sachs International 9 February 2026 | 5:06AM GMT Portfolio Strategy Research GOAL POST 10 Questions for multi-asset investors early in 2026 Peter ...

Group 1: Oil Price Movements - March WTI crude oil closed up +0.81 (+1.27%), and March RBOB gasoline closed up +0.0323 (+1.65%) on Monday, with gasoline reaching a 2.5-month high [1] - The decline in the dollar index to a 1-month low contributed to the bullish sentiment in energy prices, particularly crude oil [1] Group 2: Geopolitical Risks - Concerns over escalating geopolitical risks in the Middle East have added a risk premium to crude oil prices, particularly following a US maritime advisory for American-flagged ships to avoid Iranian waters in the Strait of Hormuz [2] - Fears of potential military action by the US against Iran could disrupt key shipping lanes and impact Iran's crude production of 3.3 million barrels per day (bpd), as Iran is OPEC's fourth-largest producer [2] Group 3: Supply Dynamics - An increase in Venezuelan crude exports, which rose to 800,000 bpd in January from 498,000 bpd in December, is contributing to global oil supply and is bearish for prices [3] - The ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, with no resolution in sight, is expected to maintain restrictions on Russian crude, which supports oil prices [4] Group 4: Production and Consumption Estimates - The International Energy Agency (IEA) has revised its 2026 global crude surplus estimate down to 3.7 million bpd from 3.815 million bpd [5] - The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) has increased its 2026 US crude production estimate to 13.59 million bpd from 13.53 million bpd, while also cutting its energy consumption estimate to 95.37 quadrillion British thermal units (btu) from 95.68 [5]

Core Insights - Crude oil and gasoline prices are rising, with gasoline reaching a 2.5-month high, driven by a decline in the dollar index and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East [2][3] Geopolitical Risks - The US has advised ships to avoid the Strait of Hormuz due to rising geopolitical risks, which has added a risk premium to crude oil prices [3] - Concerns over the potential failure of US-Iran negotiations regarding uranium enrichment could lead to military action, disrupting oil production and shipping lanes [3] Market Dynamics - The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index rose to a 6-month high, positively impacting energy demand and supporting crude prices [2] - An increase in Venezuelan crude exports, rising from 498,000 bpd in December to 800,000 bpd in January, is contributing to global oil supply and exerting bearish pressure on prices [4] Ongoing Conflicts - The unresolved territorial issues in the Russia-Ukraine conflict are likely to prolong restrictions on Russian crude, which supports higher oil prices [5]

Group 1 - Oil prices fell for the first time in three days, with West Texas Intermediate settling near $63 a barrel and Brent below $68 a barrel, following Iran's confirmation of negotiations with the US, which eased immediate military conflict risks [1] - Private jobs data in the US raised concerns about an economic slowdown, potentially impacting oil demand, leading to further declines in futures [2] - Saudi Arabia reduced the price of its main oil grade for Asian buyers to the lowest level in years, indicating confidence in demand despite the price drop being less than expected [4] Group 2 - Ongoing US-Iran negotiations face significant challenges due to differing positions, which may reinsert risk premiums into oil prices amid heightened regional tensions [5] - Shell's CEO noted an oversupply in the market but emphasized the uncertainty from geopolitical challenges, contributing to market volatility and a premium on oil prices [6] - Traders are actively monitoring geopolitical developments, including Ukraine peace talks, which could further influence oil market dynamics [7]

Core Viewpoint - The current earnings season has been positive, but there are concerns about potential weaknesses in the economy, particularly in the labor market, which may not be as strong as anticipated [2][4]. Earnings and Market Performance - Earnings reports have generally met expectations, but guidance for the upcoming quarter and full year has been slightly disappointing, leading to a cautious outlook [4][10]. - Companies that do not significantly exceed earnings expectations or provide strong guidance may see their stock prices decline, reflecting market optimism rather than negative earnings performance [4]. Economic Outlook - The company forecasts a GDP growth of about 1% for 2026, indicating a more pessimistic view compared to market consensus, primarily due to negative private job growth outside of healthcare [4][5]. - There are signs of cracks in the labor market, with reduced immigration and the impact of AI contributing to a slowdown in job growth [5][6]. Labor Market Dynamics - The labor market is experiencing a reluctance to hire, influenced by tariffs, geopolitical risks, and uncertainty, which affects CEO and consumer confidence [7][8]. - The current job growth dynamics are unusual for a non-recession period, raising concerns about the underlying causes [5]. Federal Reserve and Interest Rates - The expectation is that the Federal Reserve will implement more rate cuts than the market currently anticipates, with a base case of three cuts this year [9][10]. - Inflation is not seen as a primary concern; however, there are worries that consumer spending may not be sustainable as it is outpacing income growth [11]. Investment Strategy - Despite economic caution, the company advocates for being fully invested in the equity market, anticipating solid earnings growth of about 15% this year and around 10% the following year [12][13]. - The potential for high single-digit returns in the equity market is expected, driven by continued momentum and the costs associated with being overly bearish [14].