Oil prices nudged higher on Boxing Day as geopolitical risk rises in the markets. Friday, December 26, 2025 The festive Christmas lull in oil trading saw oil prices post a weekly gain as geopolitical tensions helped push ICE Brent above the $62 per barrel mark. Venezuela and the potential choking of its heavy crude production remains the No. 1 topic, however the U.S.’ Boxing Day strikes on Nigeria could open up a new front of bullishness. US Continues to Hunt Down Venezuela Tankers. The White Ho ...

Oil prices stabilized on Wednesday after a run of gains, with markets digesting U.S. economic strength and ongoing supply uncertainty tied to Venezuelan crude exports and the continued war between Russia and Ukraine. At the time of writing, Brent crude was trading just 0.13% higher at $62.46, while West Texas Intermediate had risen 0.17% to $58.48. Both contracts are up over 4.5% in the last five trading days, as geopolitical risk has pushed prices higher. Robust U.S. economic data underpinned the lates ...

Welcome back to the watch list. Time for our panel. We have William Lee, chief economist, managing director, global economic advisors, and Rick Peterson, vice chairman economist, chief strategy officer at Bo River Capital.Thank you both for being with us. So, Bill Lee, I so glad we're going to have a conversation, gentlemen. Thank you for being here.Bill Lee, your thoughts. We got that GDP print today. It was a lot of excitement, but you know, it's dated.It was uh the highest in two years, but it was before ...

Gold (GC=F) futures opened at $4,516.70 per troy ounce Wednesday, up 0.2% from Tuesday’s closing price of $4,505.70. This is gold’s second consecutive open above $4,500. Geopolitical risk continues to drive higher prices for gold and other precious metals. The implications of ongoing U.S.-Venezuela tensions have broadened after Russia and China aligned with the South American oil producer. The U.S. has implemented a blockade against Venezuelan oil tankers, seized the country's oil, and pressured Venezue ...

Oil prices were rising in early trading as the U.S. ramped up pressure on Venezuela, raising concerns over supply disruptions in the region.Brent crude was up 0.9% to $61.03 a barrel, while WTI gained 1% to $57.07 a barrel on news that the U.S. Coast Guard is pursuing a tanker involved in transporting oil from Venezuela shortly after apprehending one that wasn't on its sanctions list."These geopolitical developments have helped put a floor under oil prices, as faster than expected OPEC+ output increases, ri ...

Joining me to wrap up the week, Ron Insana, CEO of Insana Information Partners. He joins me at the desk. Ron, great to have you. >> It's great to see you.Thanks for having me, Caroline. >> All right, so what do we need to take away from this week. What do investors actually need to care about right now.>> Well, I think they still have to care about the data fog that we're going through. I mean, we've got CPI or consumer price information that told us inflation was a little better than we thought, but the da ...

Core Insights - The seizure of a Venezuelan tanker by the U.S. and subsequent sanctions are expected to have limited immediate effects on the Chinese oil market due to existing oil volumes and weak demand [1][2] - Venezuelan oil exports to China are projected to increase in December and January, driven by prior exports and significant discounts on crude [3][5] - The impact of the tanker seizure and potential further sanctions may not be fully realized until February [4] Group 1: Venezuelan Oil Exports - Venezuelan oil exports have sharply declined following U.S. actions, with the country supplying only about 4% of China's total crude imports [2] - December arrivals of Merey crude, Venezuela's primary export grade, are expected to exceed 600,000 barrels per day, potentially setting a record [5] - A significant portion of the Merey crude discharged in November is still seeking end-buyers, indicating a supply surplus [7] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The influx of Venezuelan oil coincides with increased deliveries from other sanctioned producers like Russia and Iran, contributing to rising floating oil storage in Asia [6] - Asian floating oil storage reached 71 million barrels, up from 53 million barrels at the end of October, indicating a growing supply glut [6] - Traders are currently less concerned about market pressures due to the ample supply from Venezuela, Russia, and Iran [7]

Gold will remain favourable in the short term due to the uncertainties in the geopolitical environment around the world. The ongoing EU plans regarding frozen Russian reserves serve as a further comp... ...

Core Insights - Nvidia's stock has increased by approximately 28% since December 6, 2024, while Intel's stock has surged by 95%, indicating a successful contrarian investment strategy [3] - The current market environment suggests that Nvidia, with a market cap of $4.4 trillion, is priced for perfection, while Intel, valued at $200 billion, is seen as undervalued [13][14] Nvidia's Performance - Nvidia remains a strong company, but it is now entering a "grind" phase after a period of rapid growth, with its market cap reflecting high expectations [5] - The transition from training AI models to inference workloads may lead to increased cost sensitivity, impacting Nvidia's pricing power [9] Intel's Positioning - Intel is positioned as a key player in the geopolitical landscape, capable of establishing a resilient supply chain outside of TSMC, which is critical as chip supply becomes intertwined with national security [12][17] - Intel's 18A node technology, while not expected to outperform TSMC's N2 immediately, could still provide value if it demonstrates stability and feasibility [11][17] Market Dynamics - The increasing use of Google's Tensor Processing Units (TPUs) poses a competitive threat to Nvidia, as these chips offer significant price-performance advantages for inference tasks [10] - Major tech firms like Amazon, Microsoft, and Meta are under pressure to optimize their AI hardware expenditures, which could lead to a shift away from Nvidia's high-cost GPUs [10] Strategic Considerations - Intel's investments in new manufacturing facilities and innovative technologies like Backside Power Delivery (PowerVia) could enhance its competitive position and appeal to high-performance applications [17] - The geopolitical context, including tariffs and U.S. government support for local manufacturing, may further benefit Intel's market position [17]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the oil industry, particularly the geopolitical risks affecting oil prices and exports, with a specific emphasis on Russia, Kazakhstan, and Venezuela [3][5][9]. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Brent Crude Price Stability**: The Brent crude price has remained stable in the low $60s amid ongoing Russia-Ukraine peace talks, which have not yielded significant breakthroughs [3][5]. 2. **Russian Oil Export Revenue Decline**: - Seaborne oil exports from major Russian producers Lukoil and Rosneft have decreased by 1.1 million barrels per day (mb/d), or 42%, since the announcement of sanctions in October [3][5]. - Overall Russian oil export revenues in Rubles have fallen by approximately 50% year-to-date, dropping from 7.6% of GDP to 3.7% [3][5]. 3. **Geopolitical Risks Impacting Kazakhstan and Venezuela**: - Kazakhstan's oil exports may be affected by the Caspian Pipeline Consortium's efforts to restore full capacity following drone attacks, with current exports potentially 0.5 mb/d below capacity [3][5]. - Venezuela's oil production has decreased by 0.5 mb/d over the last two months due to escalating military risks, although there is potential for long-term recovery with the return of Western investments [3][5]. 4. **US Oil Production Growth**: - The US EIA report for September indicated a year-over-year increase in US liquids production by 1.3 mb/d, with a nearly equal split between crude and natural gas liquids (NGLs) [3][5]. - Public oil producers in the US reported nearly 2% higher Q3 oil production than previously expected [3][5]. 5. **Brazil's Record Oil Production**: Brazil's oil production rose by 0.76 mb/d, or 24% year-over-year, reaching a new record high in October [3][9]. 6. **Refined Products Margins**: European diesel margins have declined by $11 per barrel from mid-November highs, influenced by peace-talk headlines and expectations of increased Chinese product export quotas [3][9]. Additional Important Insights - **Global Oil Stocks**: Global visible oil stocks have increased by nearly 2 mb/d over the past 30 days, indicating a potential oversupply in the market [3][9]. - **US Oil Rig Count**: The US oil rig count decreased by 12 to 407 last week, which may signal a slowdown in future production growth [12]. - **Future Supply Growth Expectations**: Strong supply growth is anticipated outside of OPEC+ and the US Lower 48 crude regions into the next year, with several new projects expected to come online [25][30]. This summary encapsulates the critical points discussed in the conference call, highlighting the current state of the oil industry, geopolitical influences, and production trends.