Core Insights - Crude oil and gasoline prices are experiencing slight increases due to easing US-China trade tensions, which are expected to bolster economic growth and energy demand following an agreement between Presidents Trump and Xi Jinping to extend a tariff truce and reduce trade barriers [1] Group 1: Price Movements - December WTI crude oil is up by +0.11 (+0.18%) and December RBOB gasoline is up by +0.0008 (+0.04%) [1] - Weekly EIA crude inventories unexpectedly fell, and gasoline supplies dropped to an 11-month low, contributing to positive price momentum [2] Group 2: Economic Indicators - Eurozone Q3 GDP rose by +0.2% quarter-on-quarter and +1.3% year-on-year, surpassing expectations, which is bullish for energy demand [3] - The Bank of Japan raised its 2025 GDP forecast for Japan to +0.7% from +0.6%, indicating a strengthening economy [3] Group 3: Supply Dynamics - Expectations of a decline in Russian crude supplies are supporting oil prices, following US sanctions on major Russian oil producers due to the ongoing conflict in Ukraine [4] - The EU has also imposed sanctions on additional Russian entities and vessels, further constraining Russian oil exports [4] - Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries have limited Russia's crude export capabilities, with total seaborne fuel shipments dropping to 1.88 million barrels per day (bpd) in early October, the lowest in over 3.25 years [5] Group 4: Storage and Future Outlook - Crude oil stored on stationary tankers increased by +12% week-on-week to 89.75 million barrels, indicating potential supply issues [6] - The International Energy Agency (IEA) has forecasted a record global oil surplus of 4.0 million bpd for 2026, suggesting long-term supply challenges [6]

Market Overview - Global equity markets showed slight upward momentum on October 18, 2025, with the DAX rising 0.03% to 23998, the DOW gaining 0.05% to 46252, and the NASDAQ increasing 0.09% to 24889 [2][9] - Commodity markets reflected positive sentiment, with GOLD climbing 0.18% to 4260 and USOIL increasing 0.42% to 5750 [3][9] - The IMF projected global real GDP growth at 3.2% for 2025, highlighting risks associated with US-China tensions [3] Political Developments - Large-scale "No Kings" rallies are occurring across the United States, protesting President Donald Trump's second term, driven by concerns over authoritarianism, government shutdown, and immigration policies [4][9] - Organizers anticipate millions will attend these rallies, marking the third major mobilization since Trump's return to the White House [4] Syrian Diplomatic Efforts - Syrian Foreign Minister Al-Shibani is actively engaged in diplomatic efforts to improve Syria's international standing and address economic sanctions impacting development [5][6][9] - Al-Shibani emphasized a shift from "blackmail diplomacy" to open dialogue and cooperation, with recent high-level visits to Lebanon and Turkey aimed at rebuilding regional ties [6][9] - The focus of Syrian diplomacy includes protecting the country from polarization and promoting the "new Syria" as a source of pride in international forums [6][9]

Core Insights - Crude oil and gasoline prices have increased sharply, recovering from previous declines due to improved market sentiment following potential trade deal discussions between the Trump administration and China [2] - The consideration of arming Ukraine with long-range missiles by President Trump has raised concerns about further disruptions to Russian oil supplies, contributing to the price rally [2] - A recent agreement between Israel and Hamas has reduced geopolitical risk in the Middle East, which has impacted crude prices by lowering the risk premium [4] Price Movements - November WTI crude oil is up by $0.96 (+1.63%) and November RBOB gasoline is up by $0.0291 (+1.60%) [1] - Last Friday, crude prices hit a 5-month low while gasoline prices fell to a 4.5-year low due to renewed trade tensions with China [3] OPEC+ Production Decisions - OPEC+ agreed to a modest increase of 137,000 barrels per day (bpd) in crude production starting in November, which was below market expectations [5] - OPEC's crude production rose by 400,000 bpd to 29.05 million bpd in September, marking the highest level in 2.5 years [5] Russian Supply Constraints - Reduced crude production in Russia is supporting oil prices, with Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries limiting export capabilities [6] - Russian refined-product flows have dropped to 1.94 million bpd in early September, the lowest in over 3.25 years [6]

Core Insights - Crude oil and gasoline prices experienced significant declines, with crude reaching a 5-month low and gasoline hitting a 4.5-year low due to renewed trade tensions between the US and China, particularly following President Trump's tariff threats [2] Group 1: Price Movements - November WTI crude oil closed down by $2.61 (-4.24%) and November RBOB gasoline down by $0.0622 (-3.30%) [1] - Crude prices fell sharply on Friday, influenced by stock market sell-offs linked to trade tensions with China [2] Group 2: Market Influences - The decline in crude prices was exacerbated by Saudi Aramco's decision to maintain its oil price for Asian customers for November delivery, indicating weak energy demand [4] - OPEC+ agreed to a modest increase of 137,000 barrels per day (bpd) in crude production starting in November, which was below market expectations [5] - Reduced crude production in Russia, due to Ukrainian attacks on refineries, has limited Russia's export capabilities, providing some support for oil prices [6] Group 3: Geopolitical Factors - The cooling tensions in the Middle East, following a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas, contributed to the pressure on crude prices by reducing the risk of supply disruptions [3]

Global Economic Growth Forecast - The OECD upgraded its global economic growth forecast to 3.2% for 2025, an increase from the previous estimate of 2.9% in June [2] - The growth expectation for 2026 remains unchanged at 2.9%, indicating a slowdown from the 3.3% growth seen in 2024 [2] U.S. Economic Outlook - The growth forecast for the U.S. has been raised to 1.8% for 2025, up from June's estimate of 1.6%, but still lower than the 2.8% growth recorded in 2024 [2] - The OECD projects a further decline to 1.5% growth for the U.S. in 2026 [2] Factors Influencing Growth - Global growth was more resilient than anticipated in the first half of 2025, particularly in emerging-market economies [3] - Industrial production and trade were bolstered by front-loading ahead of higher tariffs, while strong AI-related investment positively impacted outcomes in the U.S. [3] - Fiscal support in China has outweighed the negative effects from trade headwinds and weaknesses in the property market [3]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The global economic outlook remains uncertain due to ongoing US tariffs and geopolitical tensions, particularly regarding Iran and its nuclear ambitions [3][4][24] - US tariffs are expected to have a significant impact on both US and global growth, with a projected decline in global GDP from 2.8% in 2024 to 2.5% in 2025 [8][22] - The average effective tariff rate for US consumers has reached 15.8%, the highest since 1936, indicating a substantial increase in trade costs [9][46] Summary by Sections Key Forecasts - Global GDP growth is forecasted to slow from 2.8% in 2024 to 2.5% in 2025 and further to 2.3% in 2026 [22] - Developed economies are expected to grow at a slower pace compared to emerging markets, with the US GDP growth projected at 1.8% for 2025 [22] Economic Environment - The report highlights the volatility in global trade data due to frontloading ahead of US tariffs, which has led to a surge in imports followed by a sharp decline [12][52] - US tariffs are anticipated to slow trade growth, with global trade growth projected at just 1.8% in 2025 and 0.6% in 2026 [12][71] Tariff Implications - US tariffs are described as a multi-purpose tool that will likely lead to higher inflation and lower growth in the US, with ongoing uncertainty regarding future tariff negotiations [11][50] - The report notes that countries with lower exposure to US tariffs may benefit, particularly those positioned to supply components currently sourced from mainland China [13][74] Consumer Spending and Inflation - US consumer spending is expected to slow due to weaker employment and slower real wage growth, while inflation pressures may persist despite a general slowdown in growth [15][16] - The report anticipates sticky core inflation in the US, influenced by supply shocks from tariffs and lower immigration [16] Central Bank Actions - The Federal Reserve and European Central Bank are expected to pause rate changes during the summer, amidst ongoing global economic uncertainty [17][31] - Divergences in central bank policies are noted, with the Fed likely to cut rates modestly by the end of 2026 [17] Fiscal Policy and Trade Negotiations - Ongoing US fiscal negotiations are highlighted as critical, with potential implications for economic growth depending on the outcomes [18][19] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring trade negotiations and their impact on global economic dynamics [20][33]

Market Overview - Recent volatility in the copper market has been significant, with prices initially rising to 79,670 yuan before declining sharply, leading to a critical price point where market divergence has increased [2] - London copper has shown relative resilience, with its decline being less severe than that of Shanghai copper, primarily due to low exchange inventories [2] Macroeconomic Factors - The World Bank has revised its global economic growth forecast for 2025 down from 2.7% to 2.3%, while the OECD has cut its forecast from 3.3% to 2.9% [2] - The U.S. economic growth forecast has been halved from 2.8% to 1.6%, with warnings that the impact of weak economic activity will exceed spending cuts and tax revenue, leading to an expanding budget deficit [2] Inventory and Supply Dynamics - As of June 16, LME copper inventories decreased by 12,850 tons to 107,600 tons, indicating a tightening market due to previously accumulated stocks being depleted [3] - Shanghai Futures Exchange copper inventories fell by 5,461 tons to 101,900 tons, remaining relatively tight but not showing further depletion [3] - COMEX copper inventories increased by 7,641 tons to 197,400 tons, reflecting ongoing accumulation since March [3] Supply Side Analysis - Negotiations between Chinese smelters and Antofagasta have seen a significant drop in processing fees, with the latest import copper concentrate processing fee reported at -44.75 USD/ton, down 1.46 USD from the previous week [5] - Kamoa-Kakula's copper production guidance has been reduced by 28% from earlier estimates, indicating ongoing supply tightness [5] - The market for recycled copper remains tight, with both domestic and imported supplies under pressure [5] Demand Side Analysis - Demand from the cable and automotive sectors remains stable, with some recovery noted in cable production due to promotional activities [6] - The automotive sector, particularly for new energy vehicles, continues to show steady growth, while traditional vehicle production is also accelerating [6] - The air conditioning sector is experiencing a seasonal downturn, leading to a decrease in copper demand in this area [6] Conclusion - The overall supply-demand structure for copper appears stable, with tariffs and macroeconomic conditions significantly influencing copper prices, which are expected to continue fluctuating at high levels with increased volatility [7]

Core Viewpoint - The global economic landscape has significantly changed since January, with tariff chaos and a potential trade war posing risks to growth [1] Group 1: Economic Environment - The ongoing trade war threatens to derail global economic growth, indicating a volatile market environment [1] Group 2: Analyst Background - The author has a strong focus on the tech sector and holds a Bachelor of Commerce Degree with Distinction, majoring in Finance [1] - The author is a lifetime member of the Beta Gamma Sigma International Business Honour Society, emphasizing a commitment to excellence and integrity [1]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - Global economic growth is projected to remain steady at around 3.2% for 2024 and 2025, primarily driven by emerging economies [36][39] - The region's economic growth is estimated at 2.2% for 2024 and 2.4% for 2025, indicating a low-growth trajectory [34][36] - The region is experiencing a "trap of low capacity for growth," with average annual growth from 2015 to 2024 at only 1% [30][35] - Inflation rates are converging towards target ranges, albeit slowly, with falling inflation prompting looser monetary policies in the region [26][33] Summary by Sections Executive Summary - Global economic growth is expected to hold steady, driven by emerging economies [26] - The region's debt issuance on international markets is increasing, but net resource transfers abroad are also rising [26] - Economic activity remains low, increasingly reliant on private consumption [26] - Labour markets show modest improvements despite low job creation [26] - Fiscal space in Latin America and the Caribbean remains limited [26] - Inflation is converging towards target ranges, albeit at a slower pace [26] Global Context - The global economy is projected to grow at 3.2% in 2024, with the United States contributing significantly [36][39] - Major central banks have expanded liquidity, ending the tight monetary cycle [40][41] - Increased global liquidity has led to higher capital flows, primarily towards developed economies [46] Economic Activity - The region's GDP growth is projected at 2.2% for 2024, reflecting weak domestic demand and a smaller external contribution [51] - Economic growth in South America is accelerating, while Mexico and Central America are experiencing slower growth [52] External Sector - The region's current account deficit is expected to widen, driven by higher interest payments abroad [47] - Foreign direct investment inflows have increased significantly, accounting for 3.2% of GDP [49] - Debt issuance in international markets has risen by 35% year-on-year to US$ 98.9 billion [50] Prices - Inflation in the region is generally declining, with core and food inflation converging to central bank targets [20] Employment and Wages - Employment in Latin America grew by 1.7% in 2024, but growth in the number of employed people is slowing [85] - Real wages rose in the first half of 2024, although gender gaps in participation and unemployment persist [93][94] Macroeconomic Policies - Fiscal balances are stabilizing but remain in substantial deficit, with high public debt levels [112][113] - Monetary policy rates have been cut across the region, although some countries maintain a restrictive stance [118]