November WTI crude oil (CLX25) today is down -0.30 (-0.46%), and November RBOB gasoline (RBX25) is down -0.0079 (-0.40%). Crude oil and gasoline prices are under pressure from today's rally in the dollar index (DXY00) to a 3-week high.  Also, the outlook for higher crude exports from Iraq is undercutting crude prices.  In addition, today's decline in stocks has led to a risk-off sentiment in asset markets, weighing on crude prices.   Today's stronger-than-expected US economic news is supportive of energy ...

October WTI crude oil (CLV25) today is down -0.24 (-0.38%), and October RBOB gasoline (RBV25) is up +0.0031 (+0.16%). Crude oil and gasoline prices are mixed today, with crude falling to a 1-week low.  Crude prices are under pressure today on the outlook for additional global oil supplies after Iraq said it agreed to terms with the regional government of Kurdistan to resume oil exports via a pipeline to Turkey that had been halted over the past two years.  Losses in crude are limited due to dollar weaknes ...

Core Insights - Crude oil and gasoline prices have retreated due to a strengthening dollar and bearish outlook for global oil supplies, particularly with Iraq nearing a deal to resume oil exports from its Kurdistan region to Turkey [2][3] - The International Energy Agency (IEA) has raised its 2026 global crude surplus estimate to 3.33 million barrels per day (bpd), indicating concerns about a potential global oil glut [4] - Ukraine's intensified attacks on Russian oil infrastructure are contributing to a tightening of global oil supplies, which may support crude prices despite the bearish outlook [5][6] Price Movements - October WTI crude oil closed down by $0.89 (-1.40%) and October RBOB gasoline closed down by $0.0407 (-2.02%) [1] Supply Dynamics - Iraq's preliminary approval to resume pipeline oil exports could add at least 230,000 bpd to global markets, contributing to the bearish sentiment for crude prices [3] - Ukraine's attacks have halted around 300,000 bpd of refining capacity and reduced Russia's total refined-product flows to 1.94 million bpd, the lowest in over 3.25 years [5] Geopolitical Factors - Ongoing tensions in Ukraine may lead to additional sanctions on Russian energy exports, further reducing global oil supplies [6]

Group 1: Oil Supply and Demand Dynamics - A decrease in crude oil held on tankers worldwide is bullish for oil prices, with a reported decline of -7.2% week-over-week to 67.96 million barrels as of September 12 [1] - Weaker-than-expected global economic indicators, including a drop in the US Empire manufacturing survey and lower-than-expected industrial production in China, are bearish for energy demand and crude prices [2] - Ukraine's intensified attacks on Russian oil infrastructure are expected to curb Russian crude exports, tightening global oil supplies and supporting crude prices [3] Group 2: Geopolitical Factors - Escalating geopolitical risks in Europe and the Middle East are bullish for crude prices, with incidents such as Poland shooting down Russian drones and Israeli strikes in Qatar contributing to market uncertainty [6] - Concerns over potential new sanctions on Russian energy exports due to the ongoing war in Ukraine are providing additional support for crude prices [5] Group 3: OPEC+ Production Decisions - OPEC+ has agreed to raise crude production by 137,000 barrels per day starting in October, which is less than the previous increases, indicating a cautious approach to market conditions [7] - Concerns about a global oil glut are emerging as the International Energy Agency raised its 2026 global crude surplus estimate to 3.33 million barrels per day, reflecting OPEC+'s plans to revive production [7][8] Group 4: US Oil Inventory and Production - Recent EIA reports indicate that US crude oil inventories are -3.2% below the seasonal 5-year average, with gasoline and distillate inventories also below their respective averages [9] - The number of active US oil rigs has increased slightly, rising by +2 to 416 rigs, although this remains above a 4-year low [10]