I assume you're happy with the move today. Maybe you wanted something bigger You can tell us. Was President Trump right, though.Jay Powell too late. Well, listen, I really support the action that the Federal Reserve took today. And I think, you know, as Jay Powell said today, they are balancing to risk their balancing the risks of inflation on the one hand and the risks of declining employment on the other hand.So I don't second guess the decision that the Fed made today. I think that the problem that we al ...

Democrats and Republicans are both claiming it is the other one that is driving the country to a disastrous shutdown over a spending bill https://t.co/yBve0FbqvQ ...

report and joining us now, Democratic Congressman Seth Molton of Massachusetts. Good, it's good to have you >> back on the show. Um, just give us a sense of h how you can assess the political climate right now following this assassination.>> It's incredibly charged. This should be a time when we're all coming together to ensure that horrific violence like this never happens again. that we live in a democracy that upholds the values of a democracy, including free speech, without resorting to violence.And yet ...

All right, we're joined now um and we're grateful and and uh and excited to have House Speaker Mike Johnson. Uh Mr. . Speaker, it's been a while.It's good good to have you on uh this morning. Great to be back with you. Thanks so much.I know you have a real job. You got a you know, your day job. I don't know if you can sit around watching TV, but I I just don't think we can gloss over what we just saw with that with that state visit.And you know, we we're a divided country now and and you're you're fully awa ...

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[Music] New analysis today of the fallout from Charlie Kirk's killing and how the public's reaction may say it all. >> The Kirk assassination this week has held up a mirror on our country right now and it's not a pretty picture. Right. The governor of Utah, Spencer Cox, just said on your air that he wonders whether or not this is the end of a dark period or another step toward an even darker period. and the reaction to what happened in the days after even the hours after the assassination indicates that it' ...

Welcome back. Democrats scored a muchneeded victory last night in the fight for control of the House of Representatives. Democrat James Walkenshaw beat out Republican Stuart Witson in a special election to represent Virginia's 11th Congressional District.Walkenshaw previously served as the chief of staff to Congressman Jerry Connley, who held the seat before he died earlier this year of cancer. Once he's sworn in, Walkenshaw's victory means Democrats will control 213 House seats versus 219 for Republicans. ...

Government Shutdown & Political Landscape - 存在政府关门的严重可能性，因为众议院和参议院的进度严重落后，且白宫似乎不重视避免关门[3] - 白宫取消 50 亿美元的外援，激怒了立法者，这表明他们并不担心达成协议[4] - 经济影响通常不显著，通常只是将一些经济活动推迟到政府重新启动后，通常持续一周左右[6] - 民主党人认为在政治上必须对特朗普总统表现出强烈的抵抗，他们可能会利用这次机会[10] - 特朗普总统希望表明他对债务和赤字负责，而民主党人则不然，这有助于他在政治和实质上获益[11] - 市场已经习惯了政府关门，认为这是一种政治歌舞伎，但这次可能会更加重要，因为市场对债务和赤字已经感到不安[14][15] Tariffs & Trade - 特朗普政府可能会通过其他方式复制关税的影响，因为总统 40 年来一直主张征收关税，并且认为关税是个好主意[17][18] - 美国与中国达成协议的可能性大大降低，因为中国不愿帮助美国解决乌克兰和中东的冲突，也不愿与美国达成贸易协议[21][23] Economic Outlook & Monetary Policy - 9 月份降息的可能性接近 90%[26] - 最近三个月，就业增长速度约为每月 35,000 个，预计可能略有回升至 50,000 左右，但仍然是一个相当疲软的数字[28] - 关税和政策不确定性导致公司暂停扩张计划并减少招聘[32] - 估计约有 30% 到 40% 的关税转嫁给了消费者，其余成本由美国公司承担[34] - 即使关税的影响是一个缓慢而漫长的过程，但总体而言，关税的影响将是暂时的，因为物价水平会出现一次性上涨，之后通货膨胀应该会再次缓和[38] - 预计美联储将在 9 月份降息，今年可能在 12 月份再次降息，然后观望明年这些影响的发挥情况[40] - 特朗普政府正试图将美联储的组成转变为更加鸽派的方向，这可能意味着利率会略低于其他情况[42][43][44] Consumer Spending & Retail - 消费者情绪相对疲软，但消费者仍在消费，只是更加谨慎[50][51] - 只有约 22% 的关税转嫁给了消费者[53] - 零售额的增长在一定程度上是由消费者对未来事件的反应所驱动的，因为他们担心未来价格上涨，从而提前消费[55] - 高收入家庭占总家庭支出的比例越来越大，现在超过 50%，他们受到的影响较小，并且正在推动零售经济中的更多支出[56]

Congress is back to work today with a lot on their plate after a month-long break. And they're already facing a looming deadline. Government funding runs out at the end of this month, and avoiding a government shutdown will require Democrats and Republicans to work together. Something that is not looking particularly promising. With Congress's return also comes the return of the Jeffrey Epstein saga. Epstein survivors are on Capitol Hill today, meeting privately with a bipartisan group of lawmakers from the ...