Core Insights - Walmart's quarterly earnings slightly exceeded Wall Street estimates, marking the first report under new CEO John Furner [1] - The retailer's market capitalization recently surpassed $1 trillion for the first time [1] Financial Performance - Adjusted earnings per share for the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2026 were reported at $0.74, slightly above the forecast of $0.73 [1] - Revenue for the quarter increased by 5.6% to $190.7 billion, aligning closely with Wall Street's expectations of $190.6 billion [2] - For fiscal year 2026, Walmart's total revenue reached $715.9 billion, slightly above estimates, with adjusted earnings per share at $2.64, a cent higher than expected [3] Stock Performance - Walmart's shares rose by 1% in premarket trading and have increased over 13% year to date [4] Future Guidance - For the first quarter, Walmart anticipates revenue growth of 3.5-4.5% and adjusted earnings per share of $0.63-$0.65, which is below Wall Street's expectations of 5% growth and earnings of $0.69 [4] - For fiscal year 2027, the company expects revenue growth of 3.5%-4.5% and adjusted earnings of $2.75-$2.85, also conservative compared to Wall Street's forecast of nearly 5% growth and earnings of $2.97 [5] - CFO John David Rainey indicated a cautious approach due to an unstable economic backdrop, despite no significant changes in consumer behavior [5] Operational Highlights - Quarterly same-store sales in the US grew by 4.6%, surpassing estimates of 4.3%, driven by e-commerce strength and a 2.6% increase in transactions [6]

Market Trends & Economic Indicators - Gold prices hit a record high, up 70% this year, with 50 record highs this year [1] - Copper prices also reached a record high, increasing by 30% this year, driven by AI data center usage [2] - US holiday retail spending increased by 42% year-over-year across all payment types [3] - Gas prices hit a 4-year low average nationwide ahead of the holiday travel rush [2] - Strong GDP print of 43% leads to uncertainty about future rate cuts [5] Fintech & Investment Opportunities - Fintech valuations are reflecting a negative scenario, potentially creating investment opportunities [9] - Consumer spending is supportive during the holiday season, impacting fintech [8] - Some fintech business models, like Block and PayPal, are seen as mature [11] - Dave, a neo bank providing short-term loans, shows promise in meeting consumer financial needs [12][13] Automotive Industry & Ford's Strategy - Ford's stock is up 36% year-to-date, despite a $195 billion charge tied to EV plans [30] - Ford CEO Jim Farley highlights a shortage of 400000 repair technicians across the economy, with 6000 bays in Ford dealerships without technicians [33][38] - Ford faces a $2 billion net tariff impact, hindering further US investments [49] - Ford acknowledges that customers are not interested in $75000 EVs and is shifting focus to more affordable EVs [53][54] AI & Technology - The market is pricing in tech and the S&P at 23%, but expectations are adjusted down to 18% [16][17] - Software names like Salesforce and Intuit may benefit from AI [17] - HUT 8's deal with Enthropic and Fluid Stack, backed by Google, indicates strong demand for AI infrastructure [22] - Service Now will acquire cyber security startup Armis in a $775 billion deal to expand its cyber security offerings amid the AI boom [28]

The holiday shopping season is in full swing tonight and we've already seen records being broken for online shopping this year. But as Valerie Castro reports, holiday cataloges that we get in the mail could be making a comeback as well. >> Making a list and checking it twice while looking through a catalog to see what you'd like.>> So, what do you want for Christmas. >> This one. This one. And this one. This one.This one. Check your mailbox and you'll probably find one. With retailers like Nordstrom, Amazon ...

Core Insights - Costco Wholesale Corporation's latest sales data indicates strong consumer demand and member engagement as the holiday shopping season begins [1][4] Sales Performance - Net sales for the 12-week first quarter ending Nov. 23, 2025, reached $65.98 billion, an 8.2% increase from $60.99 billion in the same period last year [2] - Total comparable sales rose 6.4%, with the U.S. up 5.9%, Canada up 6.5%, and Other International markets up 8.8%, reflecting stable spending patterns [2] - For the four weeks ended Nov. 30, 2025, net sales were $23.64 billion, an 8.1% increase from $21.87 billion last year, with comparable sales increasing 6.9% [3] Digital Sales Growth - Digitally enabled sales rose 16.6% for November and 20.5% for the quarter, indicating strong online shopping adoption as the holiday season intensifies [3][8] Market Position - Costco's shares have declined 9.4% over the past year, contrasting with Dollar General's 63.9% increase and Target's 31.8% decrease [5] - Costco's forward 12-month price-to-earnings ratio is 43.72, higher than the industry average of 30.16, indicating a premium valuation compared to Target and Dollar General [6] Future Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Costco's current financial-year sales implies a year-over-year growth of 10.3%, while earnings per share are expected to grow by 11.1% [9] - Current quarter sales are estimated at $67.28 billion, with a year-over-year growth estimate of 8.25% [10]

Core Insights - Fiserv, Inc. reported a slight decline in the Fiserv Small Business Index for November 2025, dropping to 142, with year-over-year sales increasing by 0.8% despite a 0.7% decline in transactions compared to 2024 [1] - The holiday shopping season showed strong early gains, particularly during Black Friday, but overall retail momentum slowed afterward, with small business sales falling by 2.1% on Saturday [1] - Spending patterns indicate consumers are prioritizing essentials over discretionary items, with essential spending growing by 2.1% year-over-year while discretionary sales saw a muted growth of -0.1% [1] Small Business Sales Trends - Thanksgiving Day saw Core Retail sales increase by 3.9%, contributing to an overall retail growth of 1.9%, while Black Friday maintained strong growth across Core Retail (3.1%) and Restaurants (2.9%) [1] - Retail sales were down 1.1% year-over-year in November, attributed to a significant decrease in average ticket size by 2.3%, despite a 1.1% increase in foot traffic [1] - The only retail categories showing annual sales growth were General Merchandise and Sporting Goods, with increases of 2.3% and 3.3%, respectively [1] Restaurant Sector Performance - Small business restaurant sales were nearly flat at -0.1% year-over-year, with foot traffic declining by 1.7% while average tickets grew by 1.6% [1] - Limited-Service restaurants outperformed Full-Service establishments, with annual growth of 0.4% compared to a decline of 0.7% for Full-Service [1] Consumer Spending Behavior - Total goods sales declined by 0.5% year-over-year, while services experienced a growth of 1.4% [1] - The data indicates a shift in consumer behavior towards lower-cost options and essential goods, reflecting a pragmatic approach to spending during the holiday season [1]

Core Insights - Teen brands have successfully attracted shoppers during Black Friday despite economic challenges, with stores like Edikted, Kendra Scott, and Bath & Body Works seeing significant foot traffic [1][4][6] - Other retailers, particularly high-end brands, experienced disappointing turnout and customer dissatisfaction due to perceived lack of substantial discounts [2][8][9] Retail Performance - Stores targeting younger consumers, such as Alo Yoga and Brandy Melville, reported busy shopping environments, indicating a shift in consumer preferences towards brands popular on social media platforms like TikTok [4][5] - Bath & Body Works offered compelling promotions, such as a buy three, get four free deal, which drew large crowds [6] Consumer Behavior - Shoppers are increasingly focused on maximizing deals, with many seeking essential items rather than indulging in luxury purchases [7][14] - The overall sentiment among consumers suggests a more cautious approach to spending, with expectations of lower unit sales despite stable overall spending [13][14] Economic Context - The holiday shopping season is influenced by economic factors such as inflation, stagnant wages, and a cooling job market, leading to a more restrained consumer outlook [12][15] - Retailers are facing challenges in providing significant discounts due to tariffs and reduced seasonal hiring, impacting the overall shopping experience [15]

Core Insights - U.S. retail traffic on Black Friday 2025 was slightly down by 2.1% compared to 2024, but aligned with the year-to-date trend of -2.2% [1][6] - Shopper traffic on Black Friday (Nov. 28) saw a significant increase of 248.9% compared to the previous Friday (Nov. 21) [1][6] - The peak shopping times for Black Friday were identified as early afternoon, particularly between 2 and 4 p.m., with 3 p.m. being the busiest hour [2] Retail Trends - Retail traffic has been steadily increasing throughout the second half of 2025, starting from the back-to-school season, indicating a positive trend for the holiday season [2] - Black Friday is anticipated to remain the busiest shopping day of the year, as consumers take advantage of peak discount days for big-ticket items [2] - Predictions suggest that the busiest days of the holiday season will occur in the final days leading up to Christmas, with a sustained high-traffic period expected due to the holiday falling on a Thursday [3] Future Outlook - The successful Black Friday weekend is seen as a kickoff for a prosperous holiday season and a strong start for 2026 [4] - Historical data indicates that 77% of retailers who performed well in shopper traffic during the holiday season continued to outperform in the first half of the following year [4]

Market Overview - The market's uptick this week was expected due to seasonal optimism around Thanksgiving, leading to lighter trading volume and reduced volatility [1] - Increased consumer spending data in October suggests a record holiday shopping season ahead, particularly benefiting retail stocks [1] Retail Stocks Highlights - **Macy's (M)**: Stock price at $22 with a Zacks Rank of 2 (BUY). The stock is at a 52-week high, driven by strong earnings beats, raised guidance, and strategic shifts towards online presence [3][4] - Macy's "Reimagine 125" initiative has modernized stores, resulting in the strongest comparable sales growth in three years. The stock is attractive for income-focused portfolios with a 3.25% annual dividend yield [5] - **Amazon (AMZN)**: Stock price at $232 with a Zacks Rank of 2 (BUY). Expected to set a quarterly revenue record of $211.23 billion in Q4, Amazon's growth and diversification are significant, with a forward P/E multiple approaching the S&P 500 benchmark [6][7] - **Crocs (CROX)**: Stock price around $85 with a Zacks Rank of 1 (Strong Buy). FY25 EPS estimates revised up to $12.13, indicating a positive trend. The stock's 7X forward earnings multiple suggests it is undervalued [8][9] - **Lululemon (LULU)**: Currently trades at a more reasonable valuation after a 50% drop from its one-year peak, with a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold). Expected to post annual EPS of $12 or more in FY26 and FY27, supported by a loyal customer base [10] Retail Sector Outlook - Retail sales are projected to exceed $1 trillion for the first time during this holiday shopping season, positioning the retail sector as a hot spot for investors [12]

Core Insights - The leading retailers for the holiday shopping season are Walmart, Costco, TJX, and Amazon, which have consistently gained market share over the years [2][4][11] - Specialty brands like GAP, Urban Outfitters, and Abercrombie can experience significant stock price increases when they perform well, but their market presence remains small compared to the giants [3][4] - The promotional environment has shifted, with consumers now more aware of value, leading to changes in shopping behavior and expectations [5][6] Retail Dynamics - Consumers perceive value differently, with Walmart focusing on everyday low prices and fewer promotions, while others adopt a high-low pricing strategy [5][6] - Black Friday remains a significant shopping day, although the urgency to shop in-store has diminished due to online availability [7][8] - Younger generations, particularly Gen Z and millennials, are driving foot traffic during Black Friday, indicating a shift towards experiential shopping [9] Market Trends - Emerging brands are gaining traction and may disrupt established players like Lululemon, but identifying sustainable long-term winners remains challenging [10][11] - The preference for established retailers like Walmart, TJX, Amazon, and Costco continues to grow, as evidenced by consumer behavior and shopping patterns [11][12]

Core Insights - Americans are expected to spend heavily during the Thanksgiving weekend, benefiting various exchange-traded funds (ETFs) linked to consumer spending [1] - A record 186.9 million shoppers are anticipated from Thanksgiving through Cyber Monday, indicating a rise from 183.4 million last year [2] - Black Friday remains the leading shopping day, with an estimated 130.4 million shoppers, followed by Cyber Monday with 73.9 million [3] Spending Strength & Patterns - Shoppers expect to spend an average of $542 over the five-day period, an increase from $529 in 2024, with Millennials projected to spend an average of $764 per person [4] - About 36% of consumers plan to spend more than last year, with Gen Z leading the trend, as nearly 60% indicate they will increase their spending compared to 2024 [5] - 83% of shoppers plan to shop in physical stores, while 83% will shop online for delivery, and 58% intend to order online and pick up in-store [6] Retail Strategies - Retailers are offering fewer and shorter promotions this year, which may support profit margins, although Walmart's aggressive discounts could pressure competitors [7] - Walmart shares have increased by 17% year-to-date as of November 21, 2025, and gained 2.6% last week [7] Likely ETF Winners - The following ETFs are expected to benefit from Thanksgiving weekend spending: SPDR S&P Retail ETF (XRT), Amplify Online Retail ETF (IBUY), ProShares Online Retail ETF (ONLN), Amplify Digital Payments ETF (IPAY), iShares FinTech Active ETF (BPAY), and Invesco S&P SmallCap Consumer Discretionary ETF (PSCD) [8]