Group 1: Market Forecast Adjustments - Morgan Stanley revised the 2026 global Wafer Fab Equipment (WFE) market size forecast from $122 billion (5% YoY growth) to $128 billion (10% YoY growth), primarily driven by the storage equipment sector [2] - The forecast for DRAM-related WFE was increased to $34.9 billion, nearing the optimistic expectation of $35 billion, while NAND flash-related WFE was raised to $13.8 billion, slightly below the $15 billion optimistic forecast [2] Group 2: Company Ratings and Predictions - Applied Materials' rating was upgraded to "Overweight" with a target price increase from $172 to $209, reflecting a significant valuation discount compared to Lam Research [3] - Lam Research's rating was raised to "Equal-weight" with a target price increase from $92 to $125, acknowledging a recovery in the storage market and an increase in 2026 EPS forecast from $5.12 to $5.43 [4] - KLA's rating was maintained at "Equal-weight," with a target price increase, but concerns were raised about its high valuation compared to peers, despite an increase in 2026 EPS forecast from $37.11 to $39.03 [5]

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley has revised its 2026 Wafer Fab Equipment (WFE) market forecast and adjusted ratings for three key semiconductor equipment stocks, upgrading Applied Materials to "Overweight," Lam Research to "Equal-weight," and downgrading KLA to "Equal-weight" [1][2]. WFE Market Forecast - The global WFE market size forecast for 2026 has been raised from $122 billion (5% YoY growth) to $128 billion (10% YoY growth), primarily driven by the storage equipment sector [2]. - The forecast for DRAM-related WFE has been increased to $34.9 billion, nearing the optimistic expectation of $35 billion, while NAND flash-related WFE is raised to $13.8 billion, slightly below the optimistic forecast of $15 billion [2]. Applied Materials - Applied Materials' rating has been upgraded from "Neutral" to "Overweight," with the target price increased from $172 to $209 [2]. - The stock is currently valued 25% lower than Lam Research, with a historical average valuation gap of only 10% since 2023; the new target price suggests a narrowing of this discount to 15% [2]. - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for 2026 has been raised from $9.58 to $10.45, reflecting strong growth potential [2]. Lam Research - Lam Research's rating has been upgraded from "Underweight" to "Equal-weight," with the target price increased from $92 to $125 [3]. - The EPS forecast for 2026 has been adjusted from $5.12 to $5.43, acknowledging a recovery in the storage market [3]. - Despite a predicted 3% decline in WFE demand in the Chinese market, NAND-related WFE demand is expected to grow by 34%, and non-China logic chip WFE demand by 16% [3]. KLA - KLA's rating remains at "Equal-weight," with the EPS forecast for 2026 raised from $37.11 to $39.03, indicating recognition of its strong fundamentals [4]. - However, KLA's valuation is currently 30% higher than that of Applied Materials and Lam Research, raising concerns about the sustainability of its relative performance advantage [4].