Core Viewpoint - Gold and silver prices have rebounded significantly after a recent selloff, with analysts indicating that future gains will depend on foreign exchange movements and interest rate expectations [2][3][8]. Price Movements - Spot gold increased by 2.4% to $5,054.6 per ounce, while gold futures rose by approximately 3.4% [2]. - Spot silver saw a rise of 5.8% to $90 per ounce, with silver futures up 8% at $90.16 [2]. Market Context - The rebound in precious metals follows a nearly 10% drop in gold and a 30% decline in silver prices, marking the worst one-day performance for silver since 1980 [2]. - Analysts suggest that the recent price movements are a result of dip buying after significant corrections in the market [3]. Mining Companies Performance - London-listed mining companies experienced gains, with Rio Tinto up 1% and Anglo American up 0.7%, while Antofagasta saw a slight decline of 0.2% [4]. - The FTSE 350 Precious Metals and Mining Total Return Index rose by 2% to approximately 34,963 [4]. Investor Sentiment - UBS CEO noted that clients are becoming more cautious, seeking protection and moving away from the tech sector [4]. - There is a trend of excess cash being redeployed into capital markets, including precious metals [5]. Future Outlook - Analysts predict that further gains in precious metals may be muted, with volatility expected to persist [7]. - The pace and sustainability of future price increases will be influenced by the U.S. dollar, interest rate expectations, and overall risk sentiment [8]. - Goldman Sachs has set a price target of $5,400 for gold by the end of 2026, while BofA Securities has a more bullish target of $6,000 [9]. Market Fundamentals - The physical market fundamentals are described as somewhat shaky but still supportive [10]. - Political uncertainty surrounding the upcoming mid-term elections and the direction of U.S. interest rates under the potential new Federal Reserve chair could impact forecasts [10][11].

Why is gold price still rising and will it continue to increase more than $4,778 has become a major question for investors and global markets. Why is gold price still rising and will it continue to increase more than $4,778 amid record highs?Why is gold price still rising and will it continue to increase more than $4,778 can be linked to safe-haven demand and policy signals. Spot gold rose 0.3% to $4,778.51 per ounce by 3:10 p.m. ET after hitting an all-time high of $4,887.82 earlier in the session. U.S. go ...

Group 1: Dollar Index and Market Reactions - The dollar index (DXY00) rose by +0.18% on Wednesday after recovering from early losses, influenced by President Trump's comments on tariffs related to Greenland [1][4] - Initial concerns about potential higher tariffs from President Trump on European countries pressured the dollar, coinciding with a significant decline in US pending home sales [2][3] - The dollar continues to face underlying weakness due to expectations of a -50 basis point interest rate cut by the FOMC in 2026, while other central banks are expected to adjust rates differently [5][6] Group 2: Economic Indicators - US pending home sales in December fell by -9.3% month-over-month, marking the largest decline in 5.5 years, which was worse than the expected -0.3% [3] - US construction spending in October increased by +0.5% month-over-month, surpassing expectations of +0.1% [3] Group 3: Central Bank Policies - The Federal Reserve is increasing liquidity in the financial system by purchasing $40 billion a month in T-bills, contributing to dollar pressure [6] - The market is currently pricing in a 5% chance of a -25 basis point rate cut at the FOMC's next meeting scheduled for January 27-28 [4]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term, with weakened macro - level driving factors, precious metal prices are expected to fluctuate weakly at high levels and price volatility may remain high. However, due to uncertainties such as the Iran geopolitical situation and tight silver spot, prices are difficult to decline continuously. Long - term, the upward logic of precious metals remains unchanged, and the strategy is to buy on dips or sell slightly out - of - the - money put options [3]. - Medium - to - long - term, the Fed is still in an easing cycle, global geopolitical uncertainties will continue, and the credit risk of the US dollar will increase. The allocation demand of global central banks, institutions, and residents is expected to continue, so the medium - to - long - term center of gold prices will likely move up. Long - term investors are advised to buy on dips [4]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Price Data - On January 16, 2026, compared with January 15, 2026, London gold spot decreased by 0.2% to $4597.99 per ounce, London silver spot increased by 0.9% to $90.51 per ounce, COMEX gold decreased by 0.2% to $4601.50 per ounce, COMEX silver increased by 1.1% to $90.32 per ounce, AU2602 decreased by 0.3% to 1032.32 yuan per gram, AG2602 decreased by 0.7% to 22555 yuan per kilogram, AU (T + D) decreased by 0.2% to 1030.20 yuan per gram, and AG (T + D) decreased by 0.5% to 22541 yuan per kilogram [3]. - Regarding price spreads, on January 16, 2026, compared with January 15, 2026, the gold TD - SHFE active price spread increased by - 28.9% to - 2.12 yuan per gram, the silver TD - SHFE active price spread increased by - 77.8% to - 14 yuan per kilogram, etc. [3]. 2. Position Data - On January 16, 2026, compared with January 15, 2026, the gold ETF - SPDR increased by 1.01% to 1085.67 tons, the silver ETF - SLV increased by 0.07% to 16073.05851 tons. COMEX gold non - commercial long positions increased by 7.92% to 296183 contracts, non - commercial short positions decreased by 3.97% to 44945 contracts, and non - commercial net long positions increased by 10.37% to 251238 contracts. COMEX silver non - commercial long positions decreased by 0.10% to 47337 contracts, non - commercial short positions decreased by 15.66% to 15277 contracts, and non - commercial net long positions increased by 9.53% to 32060 contracts [3]. 3. Inventory Data - On January 16, 2026, compared with January 15, 2026, SHFE gold inventory decreased by 0.10% to 100053 kilograms, SHFE silver inventory decreased by 1.81% to 626843 kilograms. COMEX gold inventory increased by 0.01% to 36135901 troy ounces, COMEX silver inventory decreased by 0.98% to 429156441 troy ounces [3]. 4. Interest Rate/Exchange Rate/Stock Market Data - On January 16, 2026, compared with January 15, 2026, the US dollar/Chinese yuan central parity rate increased by 0.02% to 7.01, the US dollar index increased by 0.03% to 99.37, the 2 - year US Treasury yield increased by 0.84% to 3.59%, the 10 - year US Treasury yield increased by 1.68% to 4.24%, the VIX increased by 0.13% to 15.86, the S&P 500 decreased by 0.06% to 6940.01, and NYMEX crude oil increased by 0.08% to 59.22 [3]. 5. Market Review and Influencing Factors - On January 16, the main contract of Shanghai gold futures closed down 0.31% to 1032.32 yuan per gram, and the main contract of Shanghai silver futures closed down 1.26% to 22483 yuan per kilogram [3]. - The sharp adjustment of precious metal prices in the night session last Friday was due to: the cooling of the Iran situation reducing safe - haven demand; the change of the most likely Fed chair candidate hitting market rate - cut expectations; the suspension of new tariffs on critical minerals imports easing silver's tariff risk; and the Shanghai Futures Exchange's risk - control measures on silver [3].

分组1 - The dollar index (DXY00) increased by +0.09% after the Dec ISM services index unexpectedly expanded at its fastest pace in 14 months, indicating a recovery from early losses [1] - The Dec ADP employment report showed an increase of +41,000 jobs, which was below the expected +50,000, suggesting a weaker labor market [3] - The Nov JOLTS report indicated a decline of -303,000 job openings to a 14-month low of 7.146 million, also reflecting a weaker labor market than anticipated [3] 分组2 - The markets are pricing in a 14% chance of a -25 basis point rate cut at the FOMC's next meeting on January 27-28, with expectations of a -50 basis point cut in 2026 [4] - The Fed has begun purchasing $40 billion a month in T-bills since mid-December, which is contributing to underlying weakness in the dollar [5] - Concerns regarding President Trump's potential appointment of a dovish Fed Chair are also pressuring the dollar, with Kevin Hassett being viewed as the most dovish candidate [5] 分组3 - The euro (EUR/USD) decreased by -0.05% due to negative economic news, including lower-than-expected core consumer price increases and a significant decline in German retail sales [6]

Market Overview - NASDAQ is on track to end a seven-month winning streak, primarily due to declines in the technology sector, which is down 5.6% for the month [1][3] - The healthcare sector has emerged as a strong performer in the fourth quarter, leading gains among various sectors [2][3] Sector Performance - Healthcare has shown significant gains, while technology and consumer discretionary sectors, which include major companies like Amazon and Tesla, have underperformed [2][3] - Small caps, particularly the Russell 2000, are challenging record highs, indicating a potential breakout moment [5][6] Economic Indicators - The performance of small caps is viewed as a barometer for the health of the U.S. economy, with optimism surrounding lower interest rates benefiting consumer sectors [7][8] - Gold prices have increased by 24% over the last three months, driven by interest rate expectations and inflationary pressures [8][10] Retail Sector Insights - Holiday spending estimates indicate an expected increase, reflecting a shift in consumer sentiment towards more spending during the holiday season [13][14] - Retailers like Kohl's, Target, and Macy's have reached 52-week highs, signaling positive trends in the retail sector [14][15] Transportation Sector - The transportation sector has shown signs of recovery, with the IYT ETF regaining its position above the 50-day moving average, indicating potential alignment with broader market trends [16][18] Technology Sector Analysis - The technology sector, particularly semiconductors, is experiencing saturation, with concerns about energy demand from hyperscalers impacting future growth [20][21] - Despite recent challenges, major tech companies like Google are expected to have a strong future, presenting potential buying opportunities during market corrections [21][22] Biotech Sector Trends - The biotech sector has gained attention, with significant investments from notable investors, indicating a promising outlook driven by advancements in AI and healthcare [24][25] - Companies like Teddoc and Repimmune are highlighted as potential growth stocks within the biotech space [25][26] Cryptocurrency Market - Bitcoin has shown signs of recovery, with a potential bottom around $80,000, and is currently trading over $92,000, with key resistance levels at $100,000 [27][28] - Other cryptocurrencies like Ethereum and Chainlink are also being monitored for potential upward movements, with specific price levels identified as critical [29][30]

Core Viewpoint - The price of gold has experienced fluctuations due to the strength of the U.S. dollar and interest rate expectations, with recent trading showing a decline in gold prices while the dollar index has increased slightly [2][3]. Gold Price Trends - Gold futures opened at $4,045.60 per ounce, down 0.7% from the previous close of $4,074.50, and fell below $4,000 in early trading before recovering [1]. - Over the past five days, gold has decreased by 1.6%, while the S&P 500 has fallen by 2.3% [2]. - The one-year gain for gold as of November 14 was 63.4% [3]. Interest Rate Expectations - Current market expectations indicate a 46.4% chance of a quarter-point rate reduction in December, which is influencing gold prices [2]. - The upcoming U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics report on job growth is anticipated to provide further clarity on interest rates [2]. Market Dynamics - Continued high interest rates may reduce gold demand as interest-bearing assets become more attractive [3]. - Despite high prices, gold is seen as a recovery asset from previous low prices and is gaining popularity as a diversification tool among central banks and individual investors [9]. Investment Considerations - Gold is viewed as a stabilizer in a diversified portfolio rather than a driver of high returns, emphasizing the importance of appropriate expectations and allocation [10]. - Investors are advised to consider the speculative nature of gold investments, as commodity prices are influenced by unpredictable macroeconomic and political factors [11].

Treasury traders are turning to betting markets for signals on the length of the US government shutdown in the absence of economic data to guide interest rate expectations https://t.co/9D5LgiEoBr ...