Treasury Yields Snapshot: March 20, 2026 The yield on the 10-year note finished March 20, 2026 at 4.39% while the 2-year note ended at 3.88%. This is the highest level for each since July 2025. The chart below overlays the daily performance of several Treasury bonds, starting from the pre-recession equity market peaks, along with the Federal Funds Rate (FFR) since 2007. This next table shows the highs and lows of yields and the Federal Funds Rate (FFR) since 2007. A Long-Term Look at the 10-Year Treasury Yi ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state of Treasury yields, the implications of an inverted yield curve, and the influence of the Federal Funds Rate on mortgage rates, highlighting potential recession indicators and recent trends in fixed-rate mortgages. Treasury Yields Overview - The yield on the 10-year Treasury note was 4.28% as of March 13, 2026, while the 2-year note was at 3.73% and the 30-year yield was at 4.90% [1] - A long-term view of the 10-year yield shows historical trends dating back to 1965, prior to the 1973 oil embargo [1] Inverted Yield Curve - An inverted yield curve occurs when longer-term Treasury yields are lower than shorter-term yields, with the 10-2 spread being a reliable recession indicator [1] - The 10-2 spread has been negative from July 5, 2022, to August 26, 2024, with the last negative spread recorded on September 5, 2024 [1] - The average lead time to a recession based on the first negative spread is approximately 48 weeks, while using the last positive spread date yields an average of 18.5 weeks [1] Mortgage Rates and Federal Funds Rate - The Federal Funds Rate influences borrowing costs for banks, which typically leads to higher mortgage rates when the FFR increases [1] - Despite the Fed's rate-cutting cycle beginning in September 2024, mortgage rates have recently declined, with the 30-year fixed rate at 6.11% according to Freddie Mac [1] - The article notes that Fed policy has significantly impacted market behavior, particularly in relation to Treasury yields and mortgage rates [1] ETFs Related to Treasuries - Mentioned ETFs associated with Treasuries include Vanguard 0-3 Month Treasury Bill ETF (VBIL), Vanguard Intermediate-Term Treasury ETF (VGIT), and Vanguard Long-Term Treasury ETF (VGLT) [1]

Core Insights - The yield on the 10-year Treasury note was 4.15% as of March 6, 2026, while the 2-year note was at 3.56% and the 30-year yield at 4.77% [1] - An inverted yield curve, where longer-term yields are lower than shorter-term yields, is a reliable leading indicator for recessions, with the 10-2 spread being particularly significant [1] - The average lead time to a recession based on the 10-2 spread is approximately 48 weeks from the first negative spread date, or 18.5 weeks from the last positive spread date before a recession [1] Treasury Yields Overview - The long-term view of the 10-year Treasury yield shows significant historical trends, including the impact of the 1973 oil embargo leading to stagflation [1] - The 10-3 month spread also indicates potential recession lead times ranging from 34 to 69 weeks, with similar patterns observed in past recessions [1] Mortgage Rates and Federal Funds Rate - The Federal Funds Rate (FFR) influences borrowing costs, and typically, an increase in the FFR leads to higher mortgage rates; however, recent trends show mortgage rates declining despite the Fed's rate cuts starting in September 2024 [1] - The latest Freddie Mac survey indicates the 30-year fixed mortgage rate at 6.00%, marking its second lowest level since September 2022 [1] Market Behavior and Federal Reserve Influence - Federal Reserve policy has been a major factor affecting market behavior, particularly in relation to Treasury yields and mortgage rates [1] - ETFs associated with Treasuries include Vanguard 0-3 Month Treasury Bill ETF (VBIL), Vanguard Intermediate-Term Treasury ETF (VGIT), and Vanguard Long-Term Treasury ETF (VGLT) [1]

Core Insights - The rise of online investing and commission-free trading has empowered retail investors, making them significant players in the market alongside institutional investors [1] - A survey indicates that 58% of individual investors plan to increase their stock purchases in 2026, with Gen-Z and millennial investors leading this trend [2] Group 1: Investor Sentiment and Behavior - Retail investors are increasingly monitoring market sentiment and tend to invest for the long term, often buying during market dips [1] - The survey reveals that 34% of individual investors plan to hold their stocks, indicating a cautious approach among some investors [2] Group 2: Economic Concerns - The primary concerns for investors include the risks of recession and inflation, with 45% of respondents identifying these as the biggest threats to the current bull market [4] - The Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes, exceeding 500 basis points (5%) from 2022 to 2023, have led to fears of an impending recession due to increased borrowing costs [5] - The longest inverted yield curve in history has emerged, which is a traditional indicator of recession, suggesting ongoing economic uncertainty [6] Group 3: Inflation Dynamics - Inflation surged to 9% in 2022, prompting aggressive rate hikes by the Federal Reserve, although it has since retreated but remains above the target of 2% [7] - Factors such as a government shutdown and tariffs have complicated the assessment of inflation trends, raising concerns about potential stagflation if inflation remains high alongside rising unemployment [8]

Core Insights - The yield on the 10-year Treasury note reached 4.04% on February 13, 2026, marking its lowest level since November 2025, while the 2-year note ended at 3.40%, the lowest since 2022 [1] - The inverted yield curve, where longer-term Treasury yields are lower than shorter-term yields, is considered a reliable leading indicator for recessions, with the 10-2 spread being a key focus [1] - Recent trends show that mortgage rates have declined, with the 30-year fixed rate at 6.09%, one of the lowest since October 2024, despite the Federal Funds Rate (FFR) cutting cycle initiated in September 2024 [1] Treasury Yields Overview - The long-term view of the 10-year Treasury yield since 1965 highlights significant economic events, including the 1973 oil embargo that led to stagflation [1] - The 10-2 spread has been continuously negative from July 5, 2022, to August 26, 2024, with the last negative spread recorded on September 5, 2024 [1] - The average lead time to a recession based on the first negative spread date is approximately 48 weeks, while using the last positive spread date yields an average lead time of 18.5 weeks [1] Mortgage Rate Dynamics - The Federal Funds Rate influences borrowing costs for banks, typically leading to higher mortgage rates when the FFR increases; however, recent trends show mortgage rates declining despite the FFR cutting cycle [1] - The Freddie Mac Weekly Primary Mortgage Market Survey indicates the 30-year fixed mortgage rate at 6.09%, reflecting a downward trend in mortgage rates [1] Market Behavior and Federal Reserve Influence - Fed policy has significantly impacted market behavior, particularly in relation to Treasury yields and mortgage rates [1] - The relationship between the 10-year Treasury yield and the S&P 500 is noted, emphasizing the influence of Federal Reserve interventions on market dynamics [1]

Core Insights - The yield on the 10-year Treasury note was 4.22% on February 6, 2026, while the 2-year note was at 3.50% and the 30-year note at 4.85% [1] - An inverted yield curve, where longer-term yields are lower than shorter-term yields, is a reliable leading indicator for recessions, with the 10-2 spread being particularly significant [1] - The average lead time to a recession based on the 10-2 spread is approximately 48 weeks from the first negative spread date, or 18.5 weeks from the last positive spread date [1] Treasury Yields Overview - The long-term view of the 10-year Treasury yield shows significant historical context, starting from 1965 [1] - The 10-2 spread has been continuously negative from July 5, 2022, to August 26, 2024, indicating potential recession signals [1] - The 10-3 month spread also shows similar patterns, with negative periods leading up to recessions [1] Mortgage Rates and Federal Funds Rate - The Federal Funds Rate influences borrowing costs, and recent trends show that mortgage rates have declined despite the Fed's rate-cutting cycle starting in September 2024 [1] - The latest Freddie Mac survey indicates the 30-year fixed mortgage rate at 6.11%, one of the lowest since October 2024 [1] - Fed policy has been a major influence on market behavior, particularly in relation to Treasury yields and mortgage rates [1]

Group 1: Treasury Yields and Economic Indicators - The yield on the 10-year Treasury note was 4.26% as of January 30, 2026, while the 2-year note was at 3.52% and the 30-year note at 4.87% [1] - An inverted yield curve occurs when longer-term Treasury yields are lower than shorter-term yields, with the 10-2 spread being a reliable leading indicator for recessions, typically turning negative before recessions [2] - The average lead time to a recession based on the first negative spread date is approximately 48 weeks, while using the last positive spread date yields an average lead time of 18.5 weeks [4][6] Group 2: Mortgage Rates and Federal Funds Rate - The Federal Funds Rate (FFR) influences borrowing costs for banks, which in turn affects mortgage rates; however, recent trends show mortgage rates declining even as the Fed began a rate-cutting cycle in September 2024 [7] - The latest Freddie Mac Weekly Primary Mortgage Market Survey reported the 30-year fixed mortgage rate at 6.10%, marking one of the lowest levels since October 2024 [7] Group 3: Treasury ETFs - ETFs associated with Treasuries include Vanguard 0-3 Month Treasury Bill ETF (VBIL), Vanguard Intermediate-Term Treasury ETF (VGIT), and Vanguard Long-Term Treasury ETF (VGLT) [9]

Group 1: Treasury Yields and Economic Indicators - The yield on the 10-year Treasury note was 4.24% as of January 23, 2026, while the 2-year note was at 3.60% and the 30-year note at 4.82% [1] - An inverted yield curve occurs when longer-term Treasury yields are lower than shorter-term yields, which is often a precursor to recessions, with the 10-2 spread being a reliable leading indicator [2] - The average lead time to a recession based on the first negative spread date is approximately 48 weeks, while using the last positive spread date yields an average lead time of 18.5 weeks [4][6] Group 2: Mortgage Rates and Federal Funds Rate - The Federal Funds Rate (FFR) influences borrowing costs for banks, which typically affects mortgage rates; however, recent trends show mortgage rates declining despite the Fed's rate cuts starting in September 2024 [7] - The latest Freddie Mac Weekly Primary Mortgage Market Survey reported the 30-year fixed mortgage rate at 6.09%, marking one of the lowest levels since October 2024 [7] Group 3: Treasury ETFs - ETFs associated with Treasuries include Vanguard 0-3 Month Treasury Bill ETF (VBIL), Vanguard Intermediate-Term Treasury ETF (VGIT), and Vanguard Long-Term Treasury ETF (VGLT) [9]

Group 1: Treasury Yields and Economic Indicators - The yield on the 10-year Treasury note was 4.18% as of January 9, 2025, while the 2-year note was at 3.54% and the 30-year note at 4.82% [1] - An inverted yield curve, where longer-term Treasury yields are lower than shorter-term yields, is a reliable leading indicator for recessions, with the 10-2 spread turning negative before recessions [2][3] - The average lead time to a recession based on the first negative spread date is approximately 48 weeks, while using the last positive spread date yields an average lead time of 18.5 weeks [4][6] Group 2: Mortgage Rates and Federal Funds Rate - The Federal Funds Rate (FFR) influences borrowing costs for banks, which typically leads to higher mortgage rates when the FFR increases; however, recent trends show mortgage rates declining despite the Fed's rate-cutting cycle starting in September 2024 [7] - The latest Freddie Mac Weekly Primary Mortgage Market Survey reported the 30-year fixed mortgage rate at 6.16%, marking one of its lowest levels since October 2024 [7] Group 3: Treasury ETFs - ETFs associated with Treasuries include Vanguard 0-3 Month Treasury Bill ETF (VBIL), Vanguard Intermediate-Term Treasury ETF (VGIT), and Vanguard Long-Term Treasury ETF (VGLT) [9]

Core Insights - The yield on the 10-year Treasury note finished at 4.18% on December 31, 2025, while the 2-year note ended at 3.47% and the 30-year note at 4.84% [1] - The inverted yield curve, where longer-term Treasury yields are lower than shorter-term yields, is a reliable leading indicator for recessions, with the 10-2 spread turning negative before recessions [2][3] - The average lead time to a recession based on the first negative spread date is approximately 48 weeks, while using the last positive spread date yields an average lead time of 18.5 weeks [4][6] Treasury Yield Analysis - The 10-3 month spread also indicates lead times to recessions ranging from 34 to 69 weeks, with similar patterns observed as in the 10-2 spread [5] - The most recent negative spread for the 10-2 occurred from July 5, 2022, to August 26, 2024, while the 10-3 month spread was negative from October 25, 2022, to December 12, 2024 [3][5] Mortgage Rate Trends - The Federal Funds Rate (FFR) influences borrowing costs, and typically, an increase in the FFR leads to higher mortgage rates; however, recent trends show mortgage rates declining despite the Fed's rate-cutting cycle starting in September 2024 [7] - The latest Freddie Mac Weekly Primary Mortgage Market Survey reported the 30-year fixed mortgage rate at 6.15%, the lowest since October 2024 [7] Market Behavior and Federal Reserve Influence - Federal Reserve policy has significantly influenced market behavior, particularly in relation to Treasury yields and mortgage rates [8]