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Stocks buck seasonal slump to rise in September
Yahoo Finance· 2025-09-30 09:05
Market Performance - The S&P 500 has gained more than 3% since late August, the Nasdaq over 5%, and the Dow and Russell 2000 have also increased, defying the historical September slump [1] - Gold has surged 11%, while the VIX, a measure of market volatility, has increased instead of collapsing, indicating a complex market environment [2] Federal Reserve Influence - The Federal Reserve's promise of a rate cut by Chair Jerome Powell at Jackson Hole in late August, followed by an actual cut on September 17, is identified as a key catalyst for the market's performance [3] - Lower borrowing costs are beneficial for stocks, particularly in the growth and tech sectors, which significantly influence major indexes like the S&P 500 and Nasdaq [4] Historical Context - The "September slump" is a long-standing market phenomenon, with the S&P 500 averaging a decline of around 1% in September, marking it as the only month with consistently negative average returns [5] - This pattern has been particularly notable in certain decades, with September being the weakest month in more than half of the years from 1960 to 1989 [6] Market Anomalies - The term "September Effect" gained traction in the 1980s and 1990s as analysts noted the persistent underperformance during this month, often linked to mutual fund managers rebalancing and tax-loss harvesting [7]