Investing.com -- A chart highlighted by Sevens Report suggests that U.S. stock market gains in December have typically been driven by strength later in the month rather than early trading. The latest Sevens Report states that December has been “one of the stock market’s best months of the year,” citing data from Carson Group’s Ryan Detrick showing the S&P 500 has averaged a 1.4% return over the past 75 years and finished higher 73.3% of the time. That makes December the month with the highest historical ...

The "January effect†for small-cap stocks now arrives in December. ...

Economic Outlook - The OECD projects a global growth rate of 3.2% for the year and has raised its US growth forecast for 2025 to 2%, although this represents a significant slowdown compared to previous years [7][6]. - The US economy has shown surprising resilience to tariffs imposed since January 2017, with expectations of continued inflationary pressures and a potential rise in unemployment [6][19]. Consumer Spending and Market Dynamics - There is a divergence in consumer sentiment and macroeconomic data, exemplified by a K-shaped economy where high-income households are disproportionately driving spending [10][20]. - The top 10% of earners are responsible for a significant portion of consumer spending, which is expected to sustain GDP growth, albeit at a sub-2% rate for the US [24][20]. Company Performance and Strategies - Signate Jewelers reported a 3% year-over-year increase in same-store sales for the third quarter, but provided a weaker-than-expected forecast for the fourth quarter due to consumer caution [37][41]. - The CEO of Signate highlighted the importance of navigating tariff uncertainties and maintaining inventory at key price points to deliver value during the holiday season [41][47]. Bitcoin and Cryptocurrency Market - Strategy has acquired 650,000 Bitcoin, representing over 3% of the total supply, and established a $1.44 billion US cash reserve to cover dividends for 21 months [63][66]. - The CEO of Strategy indicated that selling Bitcoin would only be considered if the market net asset value (MNAV) fell below 1x, emphasizing a long-term investment strategy rather than trading [66][77]. Stock Market and Investment Trends - Analysts have mixed views on stock performance, with expectations of continued gains in the stock market despite a projected sub-2% economic growth rate for the US [26][24]. - Companies like Symbotic and Unity Software are experiencing varied analyst ratings, reflecting the broader market interest in automation and gaming sectors [94][95].

Summary of J.P. Morgan CEEMEA 2026 Year Ahead Conference Call Industry Overview - **Focus**: CEEMEA (Central and Eastern Europe, Middle East, and Africa) and South Africa equity strategy - **Key Trends**: Weaker USD, stronger gold, weaker oil, resilient global growth, and easing from emerging market (EM) central banks expected to continue into 2026 [9][10] Core Insights - **Valuation Concerns**: Many global assets are at or near post-GFC highs, raising macro concerns for CEEMEA strategy. However, key markets like UAE, South Africa, and Poland are trading at discounts to long-term averages [9][10] - **Oil Price Forecast**: J.P. Morgan forecasts lower oil prices in 2026, which could negatively impact MENA equities. Brent crude is expected to average $58 in 2026 [10][24] - **Geopolitical Risks**: Trade tensions are anticipated to rise in 2026, particularly between the US and China, which could affect CEEMEA markets [10][15] - **Investment Recommendations**: - **Overweight (OW)**: South Africa, Greece, Poland, and UAE - **Neutral (N)**: Saudi Arabia and Türkiye [9][10][13] Key Market Calls - **MSCI EMEA Target**: - Base case target for end-2026 is 285, representing a 16% upside - Bull case target is 325 (32% upside), while bear case target is 210 (16% downside) [12][17] - **Earnings Growth**: Earnings assumptions for MSCI EMEA are 21% for 2026 and 11% for 2027 in USD terms, aligning with consensus [12] Sector-Specific Insights - **Saudi Arabia**: - Current headwinds include low oil prices, high breakeven costs, and tight domestic liquidity. The market is expected to remain under pressure until at least 2H26 [24][35] - Banks are expected to outperform due to increased lending needs and favorable funding conditions from anticipated Fed cuts [25] - **South Africa**: Strong GDP growth and a new CPI target of 3% are expected to support the ZAR and local equities [9][10] - **UAE**: Identified as the best long-term growth story in CEEMEA, with strong fundamentals supporting its market position [10][19] Top Investment Picks - **CEEMEA Strategy Top 10 Stocks**: - **UAE**: ADCB, Aldar, Emaar Properties - **EM Europe**: OTP, Piraeus Bank - **South Africa**: Nedbank, Capitec, Impala, Naspers, Anglogold [13][19] Risks to Consider - **Market Risks**: - Lower oil prices could adversely affect MENA markets - Potential reversal of gold/PGM rally - Trade wars and geopolitical tensions could impact investor sentiment [15] - **Valuation Risks**: High valuations across many asset classes could lead to corrections [15] Conclusion - The CEEMEA region presents both opportunities and risks as it navigates through a complex macroeconomic landscape. Key markets like South Africa and UAE are positioned favorably, while Saudi Arabia faces significant challenges that could hinder performance in the near term. Investors are advised to remain cautious and selective in their approach to this region.

Market Performance - The S&P 500 has gained more than 3% since late August, the Nasdaq over 5%, and the Dow and Russell 2000 have also increased, defying the historical September slump [1] - Gold has surged 11%, while the VIX, a measure of market volatility, has increased instead of collapsing, indicating a complex market environment [2] Federal Reserve Influence - The Federal Reserve's promise of a rate cut by Chair Jerome Powell at Jackson Hole in late August, followed by an actual cut on September 17, is identified as a key catalyst for the market's performance [3] - Lower borrowing costs are beneficial for stocks, particularly in the growth and tech sectors, which significantly influence major indexes like the S&P 500 and Nasdaq [4] Historical Context - The "September slump" is a long-standing market phenomenon, with the S&P 500 averaging a decline of around 1% in September, marking it as the only month with consistently negative average returns [5] - This pattern has been particularly notable in certain decades, with September being the weakest month in more than half of the years from 1960 to 1989 [6] Market Anomalies - The term "September Effect" gained traction in the 1980s and 1990s as analysts noted the persistent underperformance during this month, often linked to mutual fund managers rebalancing and tax-loss harvesting [7]