1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided reports. 2. Core Views - Overall, the prices of various non - ferrous metals are affected by multiple factors including geopolitical situations, supply - demand relationships, and cost factors. Each metal has its own unique price trend and influencing factors. The short - term price trends of different metals are diverse, with some expected to be range - bound, some to rise and then fall, and some to continue to weaken [1][3][4]. 3. Summary by Metal Copper - **Price Movement**: The price of copper rebounded. LME copper closed up 0.49% at $9,695 per ton, and the main contract of SHFE copper closed at 78,650 yuan per ton [1]. - **Supply and Demand**: LME inventory decreased by 7,150 tons to 107,325 tons. In China, social and bonded area inventories increased slightly, and SHFE copper warehouse receipts increased to 47,000 tons. The supply of spot goods was tight, and the holders still had the sentiment of holding up prices. The import loss of domestic copper spot decreased, and the premium of Yangshan copper increased. The substitution advantage of scrap copper slightly improved [1]. - **Outlook**: The price is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation in the short term. The support for copper prices is still strong due to low inventory, but the weakening demand will limit the upward space. The reference range for the main SHFE copper contract is 77,800 - 79,200 yuan per ton, and for LME copper 3M is $9,600 - 9,760 per ton [1]. Aluminum - **Price Movement**: The price of aluminum declined first and then rebounded. LME aluminum closed up 0.56% at $2,517 per ton, and the main contract of SHFE aluminum closed at 20,385 yuan per ton [3]. - **Supply and Demand**: The decline in domestic inventory narrowed. LME aluminum inventory decreased by 0.2 million tons to 351,200 tons. The spot in the East China region was at a discount of 10 yuan per ton to the futures, and the discount narrowed. The downstream mainly purchased on demand [3]. - **Outlook**: The price is expected to rise and then fall in the short term, and the pattern of near - term strength and long - term weakness is expected to continue. The reference range for the domestic main contract is 20,200 - 20,600 yuan per ton, and for LME aluminum 3M is $2,470 - 2,540 per ton [3]. Lead - **Price Movement**: The SHFE lead index closed up 0.22% at 16,977 yuan per ton, and LME lead 3S rose by $0.5 to $1,992 per ton [4]. - **Supply and Demand**: Downstream battery enterprises had weak consumption, and the pick - up situation was poor. The operating rate of primary lead smelting reached a historical high of around 70%, and the finished product inventory of secondary lead remained at a high level of 29,000 tons [4]. - **Outlook**: The price of lead is expected to continue to weaken [4]. Zinc - **Price Movement**: The SHFE zinc index closed up 0.18% at 21,639 yuan per ton, and LME zinc 3S rose by $22.5 to $2,632.5 per ton [6]. - **Supply and Demand**: Zinc ore remained in an oversupply situation, and the profit of zinc smelters increased again. Although the domestic social inventory of zinc ingots decreased again, the overall domestic visible inventory stabilized, and there was still a large downward risk in the future [6]. - **Outlook**: There is a large downward risk in the future [6]. Tin - **Price Movement**: Tin prices oscillated. - **Supply and Demand**: The short - term supply of tin ore was in short supply, and some smelting enterprises carried out maintenance or stepped - up production cuts. Terminal demand entered the off - season, and the downstream purchasing willingness was significantly weakened after the tin price rose to around 260,000 yuan per ton [7][8]. - **Outlook**: The domestic tin price is expected to oscillate in the range of 250,000 - 270,000 yuan per ton, and the LME tin price is expected to be in the range of $31,000 - 33,000 per ton [8]. Nickel - **Price Movement**: Nickel prices oscillated downward. - **Supply and Demand**: The shortage of nickel ore is expected to gradually ease, and the price of nickel ore will be under pressure. The price of nickel iron was dragged down by the weak demand for stainless steel. The supply of intermediate products is expected to loosen, and the price of nickel sulfate may be under pressure. The supply - demand surplus pattern of refined nickel remains unchanged [10]. - **Outlook**: The nickel price may further decline after the spot demand weakens. It is not recommended to chase short positions, and it is advisable to wait for a rebound and sell at high prices. The reference range for the main SHFE nickel contract is 115,000 - 128,000 yuan per ton, and for LME nickel 3M is $14,500 - 16,500 per ton [10]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price Movement**: The MMLC spot index of lithium carbonate reported 60,187 yuan, down 0.41% from the previous trading day. The LC2509 contract closed at 59,780 yuan, down 0.03% from the previous closing price [12]. - **Supply and Demand**: The fundamentals of lithium carbonate have not improved substantially. Domestic supply shows strong resilience, and production in June increased month - on - month. The downstream entered the relative off - season [12]. - **Outlook**: It is expected to continue to accumulate inventory and oscillate weakly at the bottom in the short term. The reference range for the Guangzhou Futures Exchange's lithium carbonate 2509 contract is 59,000 - 60,800 yuan per ton [12]. Alumina - **Price Movement**: The alumina index fell 0.04% to 2,846 yuan per ton [14]. - **Supply and Demand**: The spot prices in various regions decreased. The import window opened. The futures inventory remained unchanged. The pattern of over - capacity in alumina remains difficult to change [14][15]. - **Outlook**: The price is expected to oscillate weakly in the second half of the year. The reference range for the domestic main contract AO2509 is 2,750 - 3,100 yuan per ton [15]. Stainless Steel - **Price Movement**: The main stainless - steel contract closed at 12,550 yuan per ton, unchanged from the previous day [17]. - **Supply and Demand**: The market supply - demand contradiction is sharp, with high inventory and weak demand. The expectation of the US to impose tariffs on steel - made household appliances has increased, which has a negative impact on downstream exports [17]. - **Outlook**: The market is expected to continue to oscillate weakly, and there is a possibility of further price decline [17].