20250826申万期货有色金属基差日报 研究局限性和风险提示 报告中依据和结论存在范围局限性，对未来预测存在不及预期，以及宏观环境和产业链影响因素存在不确定性变化等风险。 分析师声明 作者具有期货交易咨询执业资格，保证报告所采用的数据均来自合规渠道，分析逻辑基于作者的职业理解，本报告清晰准确 地反映了作者的研究观点，力求独立、客观和公正，结论不受任何第三方的授意或影响，作者及利益相关方不曾因也将不会因本 报告中的具体推荐意见或观点而直接或间接获取任何形式的不当利益。 免责声明 | 摘要 | 铜： 可能短期区间波动 | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 可能短期宽幅波动 锌： | | | 品种 | 观点 | 策略方向 | | | 铜：夜盘铜价收低。精矿供应延续紧张状态，冶炼利润承压，但冶炼产量延 续高增长。国家统计局数据显示，电力行业延续正增长，光伏抢装同比陡 | 可能短期区 | | 铜 | 增，未来增速可能放缓；汽车产销正增长；家电产量增速趋缓；地产持续疲 | 间波动 | | | 弱。多空因素交织，铜价可能区间波动。关注美元、铜冶炼产量和下游需求 等变化。 | | | | 锌：夜盘锌价收低 ...

【华宝期货】有色金属周报 华宝期货 2025.8.25 目录 01 有色周度行情回顾 02 本周有色行情预判 03 品种数据（铝、锌、锡） 周度行情回顾 | 品种 | | | 期货主力合约收盘价格 | | | | 现货价格 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 2025.8.22 2025.8.15 | 周变动 | 周涨跌幅 | | | 2025.8.22 2025.8.15 | 周变动 | 周涨跌幅 | | 铜 | CU2509 | 78690 | 79060 | -370 | -0. 47% | 中国:平均价:铜:上海物贸 | 78825 | 79170 | -345 | -0. 44% | | 品 | AL2510 | 20630 | 20770 | -140 | -0. 67% | 中国:平均价:铝(A00):有色市场 | 20750 | 20680 | 70 | 0. 34% | | 锌 | ZN2510 | 22275 | 22505 | -230 | -1. 02% ...

今日沪铝震荡偏强,华东现货升水20元。铝锭社库较上周四增加2万吨，铝棒增加0.9万吨。下游开工季节性回 升，年内库存大概率处于偏低水平，但累库拐点尚未明确，沪铝短期维持震荡，上方20800-21000元区域仍存阻 力。铸造铝合金跟随沪铝波动，保太现货报价20100元。废铝货源偏紧，税率政策调整预期增加企业成本，现货 与沪铝跨品种价差存在进一步收窄空间。氧化铝运行产能处于历史高位，行业库存和上期所仓单均持续上升。 供应过刺逐渐显现,各地现货指数阴跌,今日河南有现货成交价3200元,氧化铝弱势震荡,3000元位置暂具备 支撑。 【锌】 鲍威尔放鸽,美9月降息预期升温,宏观情绪上修。基本面延续供增需弱,盘面反弹,下游对高价锌锭接受度不 足。现货贴水盘面，持货商倾向交仓，隐性库存不断显性化,SMM锌社库走高至13.85万吨。基本面和宏观共振 不足，盘面以空头减仓为主,多头入场偏谨慎。海内外矿增量如期兑现,进口矿TC继续走升，沪锌中线上仍以 反弹承压对待,倾向等待2.35万元/吨上方高空机会。 | | 操作评级 | 2025年08月25日 | | --- | --- | --- | | 铜 | なな女 | 肖静 首席分 ...

供增需弱的基本面主导,沪锌偏弱震荡,SMMO#锌对近月盘面贴水40元/吨,期限结构的变化有望推动持货商交 仓积极性,国内锌社库仍存累库预期。但关税和消费前置影响下,消费谈季特征明显,资金多头入场谨慎。政 策面仍存乐观预期，短期亦没有较好的空头机会，盘面又是咯显僵持，期权波动率偏低。沪锌暂看震荡，中线 上,反弹空配仍是大方向。 本报告版权属于国投期货有限公司 不可作为投资依据,转载请注明出处 1 有色金属日报 【铝】 | | 操作评级 | 2025年08月21日 | | --- | --- | --- | | 铜 | ★☆☆ | 肖静 首席分析师 | | | | F3047773 Z0014087 | | 铝 | な女女 | | | 氧化铝 | | 刘冬博 高级分析师 | | | ななな | F3062795 Z0015311 | | 铸造铝合金 文文文 | | | | 锌 | なな女 | 吴江 高级分析师 | | | | F3085524 Z0016394 | | 铝 | なな女 | 张秀睿 中级分析师 | | 镇及不锈钢 ☆☆☆ | | | | | | F03099436 Z0021022 | | 锡 | ...

Report Overview - The report is a daily report on non-ferrous metals dated August 20, 2025, covering copper, aluminum, and nickel [3] Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report Core Views - **Copper**: Today, Shanghai copper maintained a volatile trend with a slight increase in open interest. The main contract price fluctuated above 78,500 yuan. Macroscopically, the continuous rebound of the overseas US dollar index is negative for copper prices. In the short term, the weakening domestic commodity atmosphere combined with the US dollar rebound may continue to put pressure on copper prices [5] - **Aluminum**: Today, Shanghai aluminum showed a relatively strong volatile trend with a continuous decline in open interest. Macroscopically, the domestic commodity atmosphere cooled. At the industrial level, the downstream is entering the peak season, and the inventory of aluminum rods has started to gradually decline. Technically, attention should be paid to the support at the 20,500 yuan mark [6] - **Nickel**: Today, Shanghai nickel showed a relatively weak volatile trend with a slight increase in open interest. The main contract price fell below the 120,000 yuan mark during the session and then stabilized and rebounded. Macroscopically, the long atmosphere in the domestic market cooled. At the industrial level, high inventories continue to put pressure on nickel prices. The resonance of macro and industrial negatives leads to the weak operation of nickel prices. Attention should be paid to the technical support at the 120,000 yuan mark [7] Industry Dynamics Copper - First Quantum Minerals has officially launched a $1.25 billion expansion project at its Kansanshi copper mine in Zambia, the largest copper investment project in the country in nearly a decade [9] Aluminum - According to customs data, in July 2025, the import volume of unforged aluminum alloy was 69,200 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 28.4% and a month-on-month decrease of 10.6%. From January to July 2025, the cumulative import volume was 611,500 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 13.9%. In July 2025, the export volume of unforged aluminum alloy was 24,900 tons, a year-on-year increase of 38.3% and a month-on-month decrease of 3.3%. From January to July 2025, the cumulative export volume was 145,200 tons, a year-on-year increase of 7.8% [9] Nickel - Today, the price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel was in the range of 119,400 - 122,400 yuan/ton, with an average price of 120,900 yuan/ton, a decrease of 750 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The mainstream spot premium quotation range for Jinchuan No. 1 nickel was 2,300 - 2,500 yuan/ton, with an average premium of 2,400 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The spot premium and discount quotation range for domestic mainstream brand electrowon nickel was -100 - 300 yuan/ton [10] Related Charts Copper - The report provides charts on copper basis, domestic visible inventory of electrolytic copper, overseas copper exchange inventory, LME copper cancelled warrant ratio, Shanghai Futures Exchange warrant inventory, and copper monthly spread [11][13][14] Aluminum - The report provides charts on aluminum basis, aluminum monthly spread, domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum, overseas exchange inventory of electrolytic aluminum, alumina trend, and alumina inventory [23][25][27] Nickel - The report provides charts on nickel basis, nickel monthly spread, LME inventory, Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory, LME nickel trend, and nickel ore port inventory [35][37][39]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Copper: Overnight copper prices fluctuated weakly, and the domestic spot import window opened. The market is cautious ahead of the Jackson Hole "Global Central Bank Annual Meeting" and Powell's speech. Domestically, measures are proposed to stabilize the real - estate market. LME copper inventory decreased by 450 tons, Comex inventory increased by 792 tons, SHFE copper warehouse receipts remained stable, and BC copper decreased by 5571 tons. With the end of the seasonal off - season approaching, downstream orders are expected to pick up. Copper prices are in a narrow - range fluctuation, with a balance between bulls and bears waiting for external factors to break the current shock [1]. - Aluminum: Alumina, Shanghai aluminum, and aluminum alloy all fluctuated weakly. Alumina's fundamental support weakened, but short - term deep decline is restricted. As the "Golden September" peak season approaches, the pressure from short - sellers may ease. Aluminum ingot casting volume increased, and some terminal sectors are stocking up in advance, resulting in an irregular inventory build - up. Electrolytic aluminum is in a "time - for - space" rhythm, and inventory trends and early peak - season start signals need to be tracked [1][2]. - Nickel: Overnight, LME nickel fell 0.73% and Shanghai nickel fell 0.23%. LME inventory decreased by 1086 tons, and domestic SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 210 tons. The LME 0 - 3 month premium remained negative, and the imported nickel premium was stable. Nickel ore premiums in Indonesia slightly declined. Stainless - steel raw material prices were divided, and the stainless - steel social inventory decreased by 2.48% week - on - week. The overall fundamentals of nickel remained stable, showing a fluctuating trend [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Data Monitoring - **Copper**: The price of flat - water copper decreased by 175 yuan/ton, and the flat - water copper premium decreased by 25 yuan/ton. The price of 1 bright scrap copper in Guangdong decreased by 100 yuan/ton. LME copper inventory decreased by 450 tons, COMEX inventory increased by 4 tons, and the total domestic + bonded area social inventory decreased by 0.1 million tons [3]. - **Aluminum**: The Wuxi and Nanhai aluminum prices increased by 50 yuan/ton. The price difference between Nanhai and Wuxi remained unchanged, and the spot premium was stable. LME aluminum inventory remained unchanged, SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 25 tons, and the total inventory increased by 7039 tons. The alumina social inventory increased by 0.4 million tons [4]. - **Nickel**: The price of Jinchuan nickel increased by 100 yuan/ton, and the premium of Jinchuan nickel over Wuxi increased by 250 yuan/ton. LME nickel inventory decreased by 1086 tons, SHFE nickel warehouse receipts decreased by 210 tons, and the total nickel inventory increased by 768 tons. The stainless - steel warehouse receipts decreased by 253 tons [4]. - **Zinc**: The main contract settlement price decreased by 0.6%, and the LME S3 price remained unchanged. The SHFE - LME ratio decreased. The SMM 0 and 1 spot prices decreased by 100 yuan/ton. The domestic and imported zinc spot premiums remained unchanged. LME zinc inventory decreased by 3650 tons, and the social inventory increased by 0.49 million tons [5]. - **Tin**: The main contract settlement price decreased by 0.1%, and the LME S3 price decreased by 2.1%. The SHFE - LME ratio increased. The SMM spot price decreased by 600 yuan/ton. The 60% and 40% tin concentrate prices decreased by 3500 yuan/ton. LME tin inventory decreased by 25 tons, and SHFE tin inventory decreased by 13 tons [5]. 3.2 Chart Analysis - **3.2.1 Spot Premium**: Charts show the historical trends of spot premiums for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [7][9][12]. - **3.2.2 SHFE Near - Far Month Spread**: Charts display the historical trends of the near - far month spreads for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2020 - 2025 [15][18][21]. - **3.2.3 LME Inventory**: Charts present the historical trends of LME inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [23][25][27]. - **3.2.4 SHFE Inventory**: Charts show the historical trends of SHFE inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [30][32][34]. - **3.2.5 Social Inventory**: Charts display the historical trends of social inventories for copper (including bonded areas), aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless - steel, and 300 - series from 2019 - 2025 [36][38][40]. - **3.2.6 Smelting Profit**: Charts present the historical trends of copper concentrate index, rough copper processing fee, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless - steel 304 smelting profit rate from 2019 - 2025 [43][45][47]. 3.3 Team Introduction - Zhan Dapeng, a master of science, is the director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, a senior researcher of precious metals, a gold intermediate investment analyst, and an outstanding metal analyst of the Shanghai Futures Exchange. He has over a decade of commodity research experience, serves many leading spot enterprises, and has published dozens of professional articles. His team has won multiple industry awards [50]. - Wang Heng, a master of finance from the University of Adelaide in Australia, is a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly focusing on aluminum and silicon research [50]. - Zhu Xi, a master of science from the University of Warwick in the UK, is a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly focusing on lithium and nickel research [51].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: ★☆☆ [1] - Aluminum: ★☆☆ [1][5] - Alumina: なな女 [1] - Cast Aluminum Alloy: 文文文 [1] - Zinc: ななな [1][3] - Nickel and Stainless Steel: ★☆☆ [1][6] - Tin: ★☆☆ [1][7] - Lithium Carbonate: ★☆☆ [1][8] - Industrial Silicon: ななな [1][9] - Polysilicon: な女女 [1][10] Core Views - The copper market is still cautiously evaluating economic growth risks and paying attention to the Jackson Hole Annual Meeting this week. It is inclined that the resistance to trading above the copper market is significant, and short positions above 79,000 yuan should be held [1]. - The Shanghai aluminum market fluctuates narrowly. The peak of inventory accumulation in the off - season may be approaching, and the inventory is likely to be at a low level this year. It is mainly in short - term shock, with resistance at 21,000 yuan [2]. - In the first half of 2025, the zinc ore output of major overseas mining enterprises increased by more than 12% year - on - year. The demand off - season is obvious. The zinc market is dominated by the fundamentals of increasing supply and weak demand. It is necessary to be vigilant against the repeated macro - sentiment [3]. - The consumption peak season of aluminum is not prosperous, but the cost side has strong support for the price. It is advisable to hold long positions at 16,600 yuan/ton and pay attention to the opportunity of the last trading days of call options [5]. - The stainless - steel social inventory has decreased for 6 consecutive weeks, but the downstream acceptance of high - price stainless - steel is still poor. The Shanghai nickel is in the middle and late stage of the rebound, and short positions should be actively intervened [6]. - The Shanghai tin rose in the afternoon session and regained the MA40 moving average. The low overseas inventory and spot premium support the London tin [7]. - The lithium carbonate futures price fluctuates, and the market trading is active. The short - term long - position thinking should be adopted, and risk control should be done well [8]. - The industrial silicon futures fluctuate downward. The main contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8,500 - 9,000 yuan/ton [9]. - The polysilicon futures closed down in shock. There is an opportunity to go long near 50,000 yuan/ton, but there is still resistance above 53,000 yuan/ton [10]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Copper - On Tuesday, Shanghai copper reduced its positions and continued to fluctuate in a narrow range. Technically, pay attention to the support toughness of the MA60 moving average. The domestic spot copper is 79,100 yuan, and the Shanghai premium slightly shrinks to 195 yuan [1]. Aluminum & Alumina & Aluminum Alloy - Shanghai aluminum fluctuates narrowly, with a spot discount of 20 yuan in East China. At the beginning of the week, the social inventory of aluminum ingots increased by 19,000 tons compared with Thursday, and the aluminum rods decreased by 6,000 tons. The downstream start - up is stable [2]. - The operating capacity of alumina is at a historical high, and the industry inventory and SHFE warehouse receipts are both rising. Supply surplus is gradually emerging, and the spot index in various places is falling [2]. Zinc - In 2025H1, the zinc ore output of major overseas mining enterprises increased by more than 12% year - on - year. The demand off - season is obvious. The zinc market is dominated by the fundamentals of increasing supply and weak demand [3]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - This week, the stainless - steel social inventory has decreased for 6 consecutive weeks, but the downstream acceptance of high - price stainless - steel is still poor. The supply is expected to increase, and there is still some uncertainty in the market [6]. Tin - Shanghai tin fluctuated and rose in the afternoon session, regaining the MA40 moving average. Indonesia's refined tin exports in July were 3,792 tons, a 15% month - on - month decrease [7]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate futures price fluctuates, and the market trading is active. The total market inventory is basically stable at 142,000 tons [8]. Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon futures fluctuate downward. During the wet season, the supply and demand of industrial silicon both increase, and the improvement of the fundamentals is limited [9]. Polysilicon - The polysilicon futures closed down in shock. The terminal and downstream demand is stable, while the polysilicon production schedule has increased significantly, and the high - inventory pattern suppresses the spot quotation [10].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the macro - sentiment continued to show a rise in risk appetite. Although domestic economic and financial data were poor, the stock market sentiment remained high. In the copper market, downstream orders had support around 7.8, and the spot market was active. The domestic tax subsidy policy for scrap copper might be restricted, and attention should be paid to the stimulation of refined copper consumption. In August, a small - scale inventory build - up was expected, but the market might focus on the tight - balance pattern after the off - season [1]. - For aluminum, supply increased slightly, and August was a seasonal off - season for demand, with a possible slight improvement in the middle and late August. Aluminum exports improved month - on - month, while photovoltaic demand declined, and overseas demand dropped significantly. An inventory build - up was expected in August. Attention should be paid to demand in the short - term and far - month spreads and internal - external reverse arbitrage in the low - inventory pattern [3]. - The zinc price fluctuated widely this week. On the supply side, domestic TC was hard to rise, and imported TC increased. In August, the increase in smelting production was further realized. On the demand side, domestic demand was seasonally weak but had some resilience, and overseas European demand was average. There might be a phased supply shortage. Domestically, social inventory rose, and overseas LME inventory decreased rapidly. Short - term, it was recommended to wait and see; medium - and long - term, a short - position configuration was suggested. Internal - external positive arbitrage could be held, and attention could be paid to positive arbitrage opportunities in spreads [6]. - In the nickel market, pure nickel production remained at a high level, demand was weak, and domestic and overseas nickel plate inventories remained stable. The short - term fundamental situation was average, and the macro - environment was mainly about anti - involution policy games. Opportunities for narrowing the nickel - stainless steel price ratio could be continuously monitored [7]. - For stainless steel, some steel mills cut production passively, and demand was mainly for rigid needs, with some inventory replenishment due to the macro - environment. Nickel - iron and chrome - iron prices remained stable, and inventories in Xijiao and Foshan decreased slightly. The fundamental situation was weak, and attention should be paid to future policy trends [10]. - The lead price fluctuated this week. On the supply side, scrap volume was weak year - on - year, and recycled lead production was low due to tight scrap batteries and low profits. On the demand side, battery inventory was high, and the market was not prosperous in the peak season. Although there was an improvement in orders in July - August, terminal consumption and lead ingot procurement were weak. It was expected that the lead price would remain in a low - level fluctuation next week [11][13]. - The tin price fluctuated widely this week. On the supply side, domestic smelting production might decline slightly in July - August, and overseas, there were signals of复产 in Wa State, but the specific quantity needed to be observed. On the demand side, solder demand was limited, and terminal electronic and photovoltaic growth was expected to decline. Domestic inventory increased, and overseas LME inventory was low with a risk of short - squeeze. Short - term, it was recommended to short lightly at high prices; medium - and long - term, hold at low prices near the cost line [15]. - In the industrial silicon market, the start - up rate of Xinjiang's leading enterprises was 59, and the resumption of production was less than expected. Sichuan and Yunnan's start - up rates increased slightly. In August, there was a small - scale inventory reduction. In the short - term, if either Southwest or Hesheng reached full production, the market would turn to oversupply. In the long - term, the industrial silicon capacity was still in large - scale surplus, and the price was expected to fluctuate at the cycle bottom [16]. - The lithium carbonate market was strong this week due to factors such as inventory reduction data and the expected impact of CITIC Guoan's start - up. Upstream lithium salt producers were willing to sell, downstream procurement was mainly for rigid needs with stronger inventory - replenishment intention, and trading among traders was more active. The core contradiction was the long - term over - capacity and short - term resource - end compliance disturbances. In the short - term, the lithium carbonate price had high upward elasticity and strong downward support [17]. Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - **Price and Inventory Data**: From August 12 to August 18, the Shanghai copper spot price increased by 20, the premium changed by 150, the scrap - refined copper price difference remained unchanged, the SHFE inventory increased by 938, the SHFE copper warrant increased by 16.47, the spot import profit decreased by 9.08, the three - month import profit decreased by 3.00, the bonded warehouse premium remained unchanged, the bill of lading premium decreased by 2, the LME C - 3M decreased by 3, the LME inventory decreased by 200, and the LME cancelled warrant decreased by 150 [1]. - **Market Analysis**: The macro - sentiment was positive, downstream orders had support, and the spot market was active. The domestic tax subsidy policy for scrap copper might be restricted, and attention should be paid to the impact on refined copper consumption. An inventory build - up was expected in August, but the post - off - season tight - balance pattern was more concerning [1]. Aluminum - **Price and Inventory Data**: From August 12 to August 18, the aluminum bonded premium remained unchanged, the difference between Shanghai aluminum spot and the main contract remained unchanged, the spot import profit increased by 43.58, the three - month import profit increased by 28.61, the aluminum C - 3M decreased by 1.84, the LME aluminum inventory decreased by 25, and the LME cancelled warrant decreased by 50 [2][3]. - **Market Analysis**: Supply increased slightly, August was a demand off - season, and an inventory build - up was expected. Attention should be paid to demand and far - month spreads and internal - external reverse arbitrage in the low - inventory pattern [3]. Zinc - **Price and Inventory Data**: From August 12 to August 18, the spot premium remained unchanged, the Shanghai zinc ingot price decreased by 150, the Tianjin zinc ingot price decreased by 150, the Guangdong zinc ingot price decreased by 150, the zinc social inventory remained unchanged, the SHFE zinc inventory remained unchanged, the Shanghai zinc spot import profit increased by 248.87, the Shanghai zinc futures import profit increased by 221.22, the zinc bonded warehouse premium remained unchanged, the LME C - 3M decreased by 4, the LME zinc inventory decreased by 475, and the LME cancelled warrant decreased by 475 [6]. - **Market Analysis**: The zinc price fluctuated widely. Supply increased, demand was seasonally weak but had some resilience, and there might be a phased supply shortage. Domestic social inventory rose, and overseas LME inventory decreased rapidly. Different trading strategies were recommended for different time horizons [6]. Nickel - **Price and Inventory Data**: From August 12 to August 18, the price of 1.5% Philippine nickel ore remained unchanged, the Shanghai nickel spot price decreased by 100, the Jinchuan premium remained unchanged, the Russian nickel premium decreased by 50, the spot import return decreased by 20.42, the futures import return remained unchanged, the bonded warehouse premium remained unchanged, the LME C - 3M increased by 13 [7]. - **Market Analysis**: Pure nickel production was high, demand was weak, and domestic and overseas nickel plate inventories remained stable. Attention should be paid to opportunities for narrowing the nickel - stainless steel price ratio [7]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Inventory Data**: From August 12 to August 18, the price of 304 cold - rolled coil increased by 50, the price of 304 hot - rolled coil remained unchanged, the price of 201 cold - rolled coil decreased by 50, the price of 430 cold - rolled coil remained unchanged, and the price of scrap stainless steel remained unchanged [10]. - **Market Analysis**: Some steel mills cut production passively, demand was mainly for rigid needs with some inventory replenishment, nickel - iron and chrome - iron prices were stable, and inventories in Xijiao and Foshan decreased slightly. Attention should be paid to future policy trends [10]. Lead - **Price and Inventory Data**: From August 12 to August 18, the spot premium remained unchanged, the Shanghai - Henan price difference decreased by 25, the Shanghai - Guangdong price difference remained unchanged, the 1 recycled lead price difference increased by 25, the social inventory data had no significant change, the SHFE inventory remained unchanged, the spot import return increased by 75.86, the futures import return increased by 70.81, the bonded warehouse premium remained unchanged, the LME C - 3M decreased by 1, the LME lead inventory decreased by 625, and the LME cancelled warrant increased by 675 [11]. - **Market Analysis**: The lead price fluctuated. Supply was affected by scrap volume and production costs, demand was not strong in the peak season, and an inventory build - up was expected. The lead price was expected to remain in a low - level fluctuation next week [11][13]. Tin - **Price and Inventory Data**: From August 12 to August 18, the spot import return increased by 1187.76, the spot export return decreased by 1192.25, the tin position decreased by 647, the LME C - 3M increased by 26, the LME tin inventory remained unchanged, and the LME cancelled warrant decreased by 20 [14]. - **Market Analysis**: The tin price fluctuated widely. Supply might decline slightly domestically, and overseas production resumption was uncertain. Demand was limited, and there was a risk of short - squeeze in the overseas market. Different trading strategies were recommended for different time horizons [15]. Industrial Silicon - **Price and Inventory Data**: From August 12 to August 18, the 421 Yunnan basis increased by 200, the 421 Sichuan basis increased by 200, the 553 East China basis increased by 200, the 553 Tianjin basis increased by 200, and the number of warrants increased by 111 [16]. - **Market Analysis**: The start - up rate of Xinjiang's leading enterprises was less than expected, Sichuan and Yunnan's start - up rates increased slightly. In August, there was a small - scale inventory reduction, and the market was expected to turn to oversupply if production increased. In the long - term, the capacity was in surplus, and the price would fluctuate at the cycle bottom [16]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Inventory Data**: From August 12 to August 18, the SMM electric - grade lithium carbonate price increased by 1900, the SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate price increased by 1900, the main contract basis decreased by 440, the near - month contract basis increased by 1900, and the number of warrants increased by 70 [16]. - **Market Analysis**: The market was strong this week due to multiple factors. Upstream was willing to sell, downstream procurement was for rigid needs with stronger inventory - replenishment intention, and trading among traders was more active. The short - term price had high upward elasticity and strong downward support [17].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: ★☆☆ [1] - Aluminum: ★☆★ [1] - Alumina: ★☆☆ [1] - Cast Aluminum Alloy: Not clearly rated [1] - Zinc: ☆☆☆ [1] - Nickel and Stainless Steel: ★☆☆ (implied from context) [1] - Tin: ★★★ (implied from context) [1] - Lithium Carbonate: ★☆☆ [1] - Industrial Silicon: ☆☆☆ [1] - Polysilicon: ☆☆☆ [1] Core Views - The prices of various non - ferrous metals are affected by different factors such as supply - demand relationships, macroeconomic data, and policy expectations. Each metal has its own short - term and medium - term trends and investment suggestions [2][3][4] Summary by Metal Copper - Friday saw Shanghai copper oscillating with a positive line, supported by medium - term moving averages. The spot copper price dropped to 79,180 yuan. The market is concerned about US retail sales and industrial output data. It is believed that there is significant resistance above the copper price, and short positions at high levels should be held [2] Aluminum & Alumina & Aluminum Alloy - Shanghai aluminum rebounded slightly today, with the East China spot at par. The social inventory of aluminum ingots increased slightly by 0.1 million tons, while that of aluminum rods decreased by 0.9 million tons. The start - up of downstream leading enterprises stabilized. The peak of off - season inventory accumulation for aluminum ingots may occur in August, and the inventory is likely to remain low this year. Shanghai aluminum will mainly oscillate in the short term, with resistance at 21,000 yuan. Cast aluminum alloy fluctuates with Shanghai aluminum. The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the profit of the aluminum alloy industry is poor but has certain resilience. The spot - AL cross - variety spread may gradually narrow. The operating capacity of alumina is at a historical high, and both industry inventory and SHFE warehouse receipts are rising. As supply surplus becomes more apparent, the spot index in various regions is falling, and there is adjustment pressure on the alumina futures [3] Zinc - LME zinc inventory continued to decline to 77,500 tons, with the 0 - 3 month spread close to par. The low inventory in the outer market supports the price. Short - position funds are continuously reducing their positions, and LME zinc is expected to oscillate strongly. The import window remains closed, and the outer market is pulling up the inner market. The domestic Shanghai zinc has fully priced in the weak reality and weak expectations, and the term structure has flattened. There is a lack of resonance between macro sentiment and fundamentals, and short - term directional signals are insufficient. The supply of mines at home and abroad continues to increase, and there is still room to short mine profits on the futures. The idea of short - allocating on rebounds in the medium term remains unchanged, waiting for short - selling opportunities above 23,500 yuan/ton [4] Aluminum (Second entry) - LME aluminum inventory is at a high level, and the outer market is dominated by surplus, oscillating weakly. The import window remains closed. As the delivery approaches, the SMM social inventory of aluminum has increased to 71,700 tons. Recently, the futures - spot spread has narrowed, and the profit from delivering to the warehouse is insufficient. The subsequent domestic lead ingot inventory may become invisible, and the growth space of the visible social inventory in the future is expected to be limited. The aluminum price is oscillating at a low level, and there is reluctance to sell recycled aluminum. The SMM precision price is inverted by 25 yuan/ton. There is limited downward space for lead. Downstream purchasing on dips has improved, but the terminal consumption has not recovered. There is potential demand in the data center UPS power and energy storage sectors. It is advisable to hold long positions near 16,600 yuan/ton. At the same time, there are still 10 days until the expiration of near - month options, and opportunities in the last - trading - day options can be considered [6] Nickel and Stainless Steel - Shanghai nickel rebounded, and the market trading was active. The domestic anti - dumping theme is coming to an end, and nickel with relatively poor fundamentals will return to its fundamentals. The premium for Jinchuan nickel is 2350 yuan, the premium for imported nickel is 350 yuan, and the premium for electrowon nickel is 50 yuan. The price of high - nickel ferro - nickel is 921 yuan per nickel point, and the upstream price support has weakened recently. In terms of inventory, the ferro - nickel inventory remains basically unchanged at 33,000 tons, the pure nickel inventory has decreased by 1000 tons to 39,000 tons, and the stainless steel inventory has decreased by 1000 tons to 966,000 tons, but the overall inventory level is still high. Pay attention to signs of the end of de - stocking. Shanghai nickel is in a rebound and should be regarded as oscillating [7] Tin - Shanghai tin recovered part of its decline and closed above the MA40 daily average line. A small amount of LME tin inventory flowed in this week, and its persistence should be tracked. In the domestic market, pay attention to the maintenance and production plans of large factories. It is believed that there is room to reduce the high social inventory in the domestic market. Today, the spot tin is reported at 266,000 yuan, and there is still a real - time premium of 700 yuan on the last trading day. Short - term long positions at low levels should be held based on the MA60 daily average line [8] Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate strengthened at the end of the session, and the market trading was active. The delivery problem in September restricts the upward space. The spot price is reported at 83,000 yuan. Downstream inquiry activities are active, and the spot market transaction has improved. The total market inventory has slightly declined to 142,000 tons, the smelter inventory has decreased by 3000 tons to 52,000 tons, the downstream inventory has increased by 3000 tons to 46,000 tons, and the trader inventory has decreased by 1000 tons to 44,000 tons. The transfer of cargo rights is obvious, and downstream enterprises are increasing their replenishment efforts as the price回调. The latest quotation of Australian ore is nearly 1000 US dollars. The futures price fluctuates greatly, and risk management should be noted [9] Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon futures closed slightly higher, turning positive at the end of the session due to the sentiment transmission from polysilicon. On the spot side, the price of Xinjiang 421 silicon remained stable at 9050 yuan/ton (SMM), down 100 yuan/ton. Under the background of increased production by large factories in Xinjiang and in Sichuan and Yunnan, there is still pressure from high - level hedging on the futures. However, SMM expects the polysilicon production schedule to exceed 130,000 tons, with a clear marginal increase in demand. Coupled with the expectation of photovoltaic policies, the support below the futures is strong, and it will mainly oscillate in the short term [10] Polysilicon - The polysilicon futures increased significantly in position and rose. The expectation of a photovoltaic conference next week is rising, and the sentiment of policy benefits is fermenting again. At the same time, some terminals have begun to accept the component price of 0.68 yuan/W. However, it should be noted that under the expectation of a structural decline in terminal demand in September, the component price and price will still be under pressure. In the polysilicon segment, the production in August is expected to increase significantly to 130,000 tons, and the high - inventory pattern still restricts the upward space of its price. In operation, short - term news related to the photovoltaic conference has a significant impact on sentiment. The current futures is close to the previous high. Long positions can consider partial profit - taking, and at the same time, pay attention to position control and the performance at the resistance level of 53,000 yuan/ton [11]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Views - **沪铜**: Today, Shanghai copper fluctuated downward with a decline in open interest. On the macro - level, the domestic sentiment turned cold, and previously strong varieties generally fell, pressuring copper prices down. On the industrial level, Mysteel's inventory on Thursday was basically the same as on Monday. Technically, pay attention to the long - short game at the 79,000 mark [5]. - **沪铝**: Today, Shanghai aluminum fluctuated with a continuous decline in open interest. On the macro - level, the domestic sentiment turned cold, and previously strong varieties generally fell, pressuring aluminum prices down. On the industrial level, Mysteel's electrolytic aluminum social inventory on Thursday was 517,000 tons, a decrease of 54,000 tons from Monday. With macro - level negatives and industrial - level positives, aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate [6]. - **沪镍**: Today, nickel prices decreased with a reduction in positions. On the macro - level, the domestic sentiment turned cold, and previously strong varieties generally fell, pressuring nickel prices down. On the industrial level, the nickel fundamentals remained weak. With the weakening of the market and weak industrial support, pay attention to the technical support at the 120,000 mark [7]. Summary by Directory 1. Industry Dynamics - **Copper**: On August 14, Mysteel's domestic market electrolytic copper spot inventory was 132,400 tons, a decrease of 900 tons from the 7th and an increase of 200 tons from the 11th [9]. - **Aluminum**: On August 14, Mysteel's electrolytic aluminum social inventory was 517,000 tons, a decrease of 32,000 tons from the 7th and a decrease of 54,000 tons from the 11th [10]. - **Nickel**: On August 14, the mainstream reference contract for refined nickel in the Shanghai market was the SHFE nickel 2509 contract. The mainstream premium of Jinchuan electrolytic nickel was +2,150 yuan/ton, with a price of 124,670 yuan/ton; the mainstream premium of Russian nickel was +500 yuan/ton, with a price of 123,020 yuan/ton; the mainstream premium of Norwegian nickel was +3,200 yuan/ton, with a price of 125,720 yuan/ton; the mainstream premium of nickel beans was +2,550 yuan/ton, with a price of 125,070 yuan/ton [11]. 2. Related Charts - **Copper**: The report includes charts such as copper basis, domestic visible inventory of electrolytic copper (social inventory + bonded area inventory), LME copper cancelled warrant ratio, and others [12][14][15]. - **Aluminum**: The report includes charts such as aluminum basis, domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum, alumina trend, and others [24][26][28]. - **Nickel**: The report includes charts such as nickel basis, nickel monthly spread, SHFE inventory, and others [36][42][44].