Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: ★★★ (indicating a clearer upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently) [1] - Aluminum: No clear star rating indication, presumably a state where the short - term trend is relatively balanced and the operability of the current market is poor, with a wait - and - see attitude (represented by white stars according to the star description) [1] - Alumina: No clear star rating indication, presumably a state where the short - term trend is relatively balanced and the operability of the current market is poor, with a wait - and - see attitude (represented by white stars according to the star description) [1] - Casting Aluminum Alloy: No clear star rating indication, presumably a state where the short - term trend is relatively balanced and the operability of the current market is poor, with a wait - and - see attitude (represented by white stars according to the star description) [1] - Zinc: No clear star rating indication, presumably a state where the short - term trend is relatively balanced and the operability of the current market is poor, with a wait - and - see attitude (represented by white stars according to the star description) [1] - Nickel and Stainless Steel: ★☆☆ (indicating a bullish bias, with a driving force for an upward trend, but the operability of the market is not strong) [1] - Tin: ★☆☆ (indicating a bullish bias, with a driving force for an upward trend, but the operability of the market is not strong) [1] - Lithium Carbonate: No clear star rating indication, presumably a state where the short - term trend is relatively balanced and the operability of the current market is poor, with a wait - and - see attitude (represented by white stars according to the star description) [1] - Industrial Silicon: No clear star rating indication, presumably a state where the short - term trend is relatively balanced and the operability of the current market is poor, with a wait - and - see attitude (represented by white stars according to the star description) [1] - Polysilicon: No clear star rating indication, presumably a state where the short - term trend is relatively balanced and the operability of the current market is poor, with a wait - and - see attitude (represented by white stars according to the star description) [1] Core Views - The overall situation of the non - ferrous metals market is complex, with different metals showing different trends and characteristics. Factors such as macro - economic environment, supply - demand relationship, and geopolitical situation all have an impact on metal prices [2][3][4] Summary by Metal Copper - On Thursday, Shanghai copper fluctuated and returned to 77,000 yuan. The current copper price was 76,440 yuan, and the flat - water copper was slightly at a discount of 85 yuan. SMM social inventory increased by 200 tons to 219,600 tons. The Fed's Beige Book showed that inflation continued to slow down, strengthening the expectation of a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut by the Fed next time. Short - term Shanghai copper may open a downward fluctuation range, and a small number of short positions can be held with 78,000 yuan as the backstop [2] Aluminum & Alumina - Shanghai aluminum was running strongly. The domestic operating capacity has been slowly rising recently. Consumption performance is good but has not continued to strengthen month - on - month, making it difficult to achieve deep de - stocking. The supply - demand contradiction of electrolytic aluminum is limited, mainly driven by macro - sentiment and cost increase. In the short term, it may continue to fluctuate strongly under the drive of alumina. The fundamentals of alumina have strong support, with extremely low industry inventory and continuous de - stocking, and the tight supply situation is difficult to change. The spot index in various places continued to be raised by about 40 yuan today, and the transaction price exceeded 5,000 yuan. Before the spot stabilizes, the futures are still easy to rise and difficult to fall, with upward space [3] Zinc - The net long position of LME zinc investment funds continued to increase, and the external market strongly broke through the previous high, further opening up the upward space. The LME zinc 0 - 3 month premium increased significantly to $58/ton, and the LME zinc spot import loss exceeded $2,000/ton. SMM zinc social inventory was flat week - on - week at 125,900 tons. The inventory accumulation after the National Day has ended, and the zinc warehouse receipts of the Shanghai Futures Exchange have dropped to 28,000 tons. The weighted position of Shanghai zinc increased by 49,000 lots to 276,000 lots in a single day, with a net capital inflow of over 1.3 billion yuan. The position of the near - month contract further climbed to 70,000 lots, and the risk of cornering has increased sharply. The Century zinc mine in Australia has been suspended until mid - November, and overseas smelters have unexpectedly cut production. The domestic smelter output has remained at a low level. The US plan to partially revoke the anti - dumping and countervailing duties on Chinese photovoltaic cells may drive certain restocking demand. The funds for domestic real estate and infrastructure projects have improved, and it is difficult to make a bearish judgment on the consumption side under the market's expectation of fiscal stimulus. Bulls rushed to enter the market, and it is very likely that Shanghai zinc will break through the previous high and further explore upward. Given that the peak season is coming to an end, the sustainability of the market remains to be observed, and the rhythm of capital leaving at high levels should be closely tracked [4] Aluminum - The spot import profit still exceeded 600 yuan/ton, and the overseas surplus pressure was transmitted to the domestic market. The Shanghai aluminum price remained stable at a low level during the day. After the losses of secondary aluminum smelters, the resistance to production cuts increased, and there was not much available floating supply in the spot market. The SMM refined - scrap price was flat, and the prices of primary and secondary lead in some areas were inverted, with the cost - side support strengthening. The downstream start - up has recovered, and the restocking on dips has picked up. There is not much room for aluminum to fall further. Focus on tracking the dynamics of smelters, and it is expected to fluctuate in the range of 16,200 - 17,000 yuan/ton for the time being. Try to go long with a light position on dips [6] Nickel and Stainless Steel - Shanghai nickel fluctuated, market trading declined, and positions slowly recovered. The strong US dollar exerted overall pressure on the market. The demand for stainless steel in the peak season was lower than expected, and downstream only replenished inventory for rigid needs, with light trading. Due to macro - uncertainty, the futures fluctuated weakly and were difficult to drive the spot. Although the social inventory decreased slightly, it was still at a high level, and de - stocking was slow; steel mills maintained high production schedules, with great supply pressure. The premium of Jinchuan nickel was 6,550 yuan, the discount of imported nickel was 150 yuan, and the premium of electrowon nickel was 50 yuan. The price of high - nickel pig iron dropped by nearly 10 yuan per unit, closing at 1,086.5 yuan/unit. The rebound of upstream prices continued to drive up the prices of the middle reaches and formed cost support. In the short term, it is still dominated by policy sentiment. Nickel and stainless steel have high inventories, and attention should be paid to further changes in Indonesian policies. Overall, it tends to fluctuate weakly [7] Tin - Shanghai tin closed with a negative candle with a reduction in positions, and trading was between the short - term moving averages. The SMM spot tin price was reported at 352,800 yuan, basically at par with the delivery - month tin price. The uncertainty of the Middle East situation is still high, and there is a large gap in the negotiation directions of both sides. The supply of tin's own fundamentals is stable. The tin export volume of Indonesia in February was the same as that of the same month last year, and the import of tin concentrates in China in the first two months increased significantly year - on - year. In terms of expectations, the war situation has affected the trading premium of global computing power facilities. The middle and lower reaches purchase rigidly at appropriate times, and the 2605 options can appropriately focus on the direction of selling out - of - the - money put options [8] Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate fluctuated strongly, and market trading was active. The overall de - stocking speed of the market has slowed down, and the change in inventory structure is worthy of attention. The decline in smelter inventory has slowed down, and the confidence of traders in holding goods has wavered, and they have begun to sell goods to downstream. From the perspective of production, the production of lithium carbonate returned to a high level at the beginning of March, and the weekly production has continuously reached new highs, waiting for the inventory inflection point to appear. The latest quotation of Australian ore is $2,045, and the ore - end quotation has loosened. Technically, the lithium market is resistant to decline, with a range - bound thinking [9] Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon futures closed slightly higher, and the spot price in East China remained stable compared with yesterday. On the supply side, the leading enterprises in Xinjiang have no new production plans, and there are no signs of large - scale resumption of production in Yunnan and Sichuan. The overall supply remains stable. On the demand side, polysilicon is still in the stage of active de - stocking, and the continuous decline in prices has highlighted the cost pressure on enterprises, resulting in weak procurement demand for industrial silicon raw materials. Currently, the market presents a situation of weak supply and demand, and the social inventory is still at a high level. It is expected that the silicon price will fluctuate in the short term [10] Polysilicon - The polysilicon price weakened again, and the average price of SMM N - type dense material at 39,000 yuan/ton remained stable for the time being. The weekly inventory decreased slightly, and enterprise shipments increased, but it is still in the active de - stocking cycle, and the price bottom is unknown. The production schedule of the downstream component end is at a low level year - on - year, and the inventory has increased. The domestic installation demand is weak, and the cancellation of export tax rebates has further weakened the overseas support. The continuous losses of components have led to a low willingness to purchase raw materials, and the fundamentals are clearly weak. The estimated price of 35,000 yuan/ton on the disk has reached the lower limit of the cash cost of second - tier enterprises. It may fluctuate and adjust in the short term, and there is still downward pressure in the medium term [11]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Views - **Copper**: Today, Shanghai copper mainly fluctuated during the session, with little change in overall positions. The weekend attack on Iran by the US and Israel drove up precious metals, but had a relatively limited impact on the non - ferrous sector. The marginal impact of external shocks on prices is gradually weakening, resulting in small intraday fluctuations in copper prices. At the industrial level, as copper prices fell after the previous rally and enterprises gradually resumed work after the holiday, the willingness of some downstream industries to replenish inventories increased. Technically, continuous attention should be paid to its performance around the 20 - day moving average [6]. - **Aluminum**: Today, aluminum prices showed strong intraday performance, rising continuously in the afternoon session, with a slight increase in open interest. From the market trend perspective, it mainly followed the sector sentiment. Today, Shanghai aluminum crossed the 20 - day moving average, and it is expected that Shanghai aluminum will continue to maintain a relatively strong trend in the future [7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs - **Copper - Related Charts**: The report presents charts on copper, including copper basis [10], copper monthly spread [18], SHFE warehouse receipts [11], LME inventory [16], COMEX inventory [13], and LME copper premium/discount [17] [9]. - **Aluminum - Related Charts**: The report shows charts on aluminum, such as aluminum basis [21], aluminum monthly spread [21], SHFE warehouse receipt daily report [26], LME inventory [23], Shanghai - London ratio [22], and LME aluminum premium/discount [27] [20].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Copper: The US is expected to maintain its tariff policy, and the sentiment is still supportive. The supply of copper ore remains tight, but the supply of refined copper is relatively surplus, and the short - term copper price is expected to be volatile. The reference range for the Shanghai copper main contract is 101,000 - 103,000 yuan/ton, and for the LME copper 3M contract is 13,100 - 13,400 US dollars/ton [5]. - Aluminum: The LME inventory is at a relatively low level, and the spot premium in the eastern US remains high. Although some plants have production changes, the short - term price support is strong. The reference range for the Shanghai aluminum main contract is 23,400 - 23,900 yuan/ton, and for the LME aluminum 3M contract is 3,100 - 3,170 US dollars/ton [7]. - Lead: The lead ore inventory is slightly lower but still higher than the same period in previous years, and the processing fee of lead concentrate remains low. The lead price may be supported by the strategic inventory of battery enterprises, but the recovery of downstream enterprises' start - up needs to be observed [9]. - Zinc: The inventory accumulation of zinc ore slows down, and the TC of zinc concentrate stabilizes. The domestic zinc industry shows a weak performance, but if the prices of copper and aluminum rise sharply, the zinc price may follow due to relative valuation [11]. - Tin: In the long - term, the tin price maintains an upward trend, but in the short - term, there is pressure for a sharp rise. It is expected to operate in a wide - range shock. It is recommended to wait and see, with the domestic main contract reference range of 380,000 - 450,000 yuan/ton and the overseas LME tin reference range of 48,000 - 53,000 US dollars/ton [14]. - Nickel: The reduction of the RKAB quota in Indonesia leads to a gradual contraction of nickel supply, and the nickel price is expected to rise with cost support. It is recommended to go long on dips, with the short - term Shanghai nickel price reference range of 120,000 - 160,000 yuan/ton and the LME nickel 3M contract reference range of 16,000 - 20,000 US dollars/ton [16]. - Lithium Carbonate: The short - term spot shortage pattern is expected to continue, but after continuous rises, attention should be paid to the increase of high - level cashing orders. The reference range for the Guangzhou Futures Exchange lithium carbonate 2605 contract is 164,000 - 180,000 yuan/ton [19]. - Alumina: The over - capacity pattern in the alumina smelting end is difficult to change in the short - term, and it is recommended to wait and see. The key to future price trends lies in the potential disturbances in the Guinea ore end and the alleviation of domestic supply pressure. The reference range for the domestic main contract AO2605 is 2,750 - 2,950 yuan/ton [22]. - Stainless Steel: The supply pressure will be continuously relieved after the Spring Festival, and the cost support of the industrial chain is still solid. The price has strong support at the bottom, and the bullish view is maintained, with the main contract reference range of 14,000 - 14,500 yuan/ton [25]. - Cast Aluminum Alloy: The cost of cast aluminum alloy still has support, and the short - term price is expected to be volatile and strong due to the improvement of demand expectations and supply - side disturbances [28]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Copper Market Information - The copper price fluctuated and adjusted. The LME copper 3M contract fell 0.68% to 13,259 US dollars/ton, and the Shanghai copper main contract closed at 102,150 yuan/ton. The LME inventory increased by 3,950 to 253,600 tons, and the domestic electrolytic copper social inventory increased by more than 20,000 tons compared with the first day after the Spring Festival [4]. Strategy Viewpoint - The US tariff policy and the tight supply of copper ore provide support, but the relative surplus of refined copper supply forms short - term resistance. The short - term copper price is expected to be volatile [5]. Aluminum Market Information - The aluminum price adjusted. The LME aluminum 3M contract fell 1.01% to 3,141 US dollars/ton, and the Shanghai aluminum main contract closed at 23,690 yuan/ton. The Shanghai aluminum weighted contract position increased by 0.3 to 653,000 tons, and the LME inventory decreased by 0.2 to 468,000 tons [6]. Strategy Viewpoint - The LME inventory is low, and the spot premium in the eastern US is high. Although some plants have production changes, the short - term price support is strong [7]. Lead Market Information - The Shanghai lead index rose 0.35% to 16,793 yuan/ton, and the LME lead 3S rose 21.5 to 1,989.5 US dollars/ton. The domestic lead ingot social inventory increased by 0.47 to 69,000 tons on February 26 [8]. Strategy Viewpoint - The lead ore inventory is slightly lower but still higher than the same period in previous years, and the processing fee of lead concentrate remains low. The lead price may be supported by the strategic inventory of battery enterprises, but the recovery of downstream enterprises' start - up needs to be observed [9]. Zinc Market Information - The Shanghai zinc index fell 0.54% to 24,593 yuan/ton, and the LME zinc 3S fell 20 to 3,382.5 US dollars/ton. The domestic zinc ingot social inventory increased by 0.61 to 180,400 tons on February 26 [10]. Strategy Viewpoint - The inventory accumulation of zinc ore slows down, and the TC of zinc concentrate stabilizes. The domestic zinc industry shows a weak performance, but if the prices of copper and aluminum rise sharply, the zinc price may follow due to relative valuation [11]. Tin Market Information - On February 26, the tin price fluctuated. The Shanghai tin main contract closed at 414,180 yuan/ton, down 0.48%. The SHFE inventory decreased by 188 to 11,556 tons, and the LME inventory decreased by 105 to 7,575 tons [13]. Strategy Viewpoint - In the long - term, the tin price maintains an upward trend, but in the short - term, there is pressure for a sharp rise. It is expected to operate in a wide - range shock. It is recommended to wait and see [14]. Nickel Market Information - On February 26, the Shanghai nickel main contract closed at 140,080 yuan/ton, down 0.83%. The price of nickel ore remained stable, and the price of nickel iron continued to rise [15]. Strategy Viewpoint - The reduction of the RKAB quota in Indonesia leads to a gradual contraction of nickel supply, and the nickel price is expected to rise with cost support. It is recommended to go long on dips [16]. Lithium Carbonate Market Information - The MMLC of lithium carbonate rose 6.80% to 175,150 yuan. The LC2605 contract closed at 173,660 yuan, up 4.31%. The weekly output increased by 8.1% to 21,822 tons, and the inventory decreased by 2,839 to 100,093 tons [18]. Strategy Viewpoint - The short - term spot shortage pattern is expected to continue, but after continuous rises, attention should be paid to the increase of high - level cashing orders. The reference range for the Guangzhou Futures Exchange lithium carbonate 2605 contract is 164,000 - 180,000 yuan/ton [19]. Alumina Market Information - On February 26, the alumina index fell 1.66% to 2,830 yuan/ton. The Shandong spot price rose 15 to 2,585 yuan/ton, and the import profit and loss was - 20 yuan/ton. The futures inventory increased by 0.24 to 349,800 tons [21]. Strategy Viewpoint - The over - capacity pattern in the alumina smelting end is difficult to change in the short - term, and it is recommended to wait and see. The key to future price trends lies in the potential disturbances in the Guinea ore end and the alleviation of domestic supply pressure [22]. Stainless Steel Market Information - The stainless steel main contract closed at 14,265 yuan/ton, up 0.14%. The spot prices in Foshan and Wuxi markets had different changes, and the raw material prices also changed. The futures inventory increased by 12,398 to 60,198 tons, and the social inventory increased to 953,700 tons [24]. Strategy Viewpoint - The supply pressure will be continuously relieved after the Spring Festival, and the cost support of the industrial chain is still solid. The price has strong support at the bottom, and the bullish view is maintained [25]. Cast Aluminum Alloy Market Information - The price of cast aluminum alloy rose and then fell. The main AD2604 contract closed up 0.26% to 22,710 yuan/ton. The weighted contract position decreased to 20,700 hands, and the trading volume increased. The inventory of domestic mainstream aluminum alloy ingots decreased, and the in - plant inventory increased [27]. Strategy Viewpoint - The cost of cast aluminum alloy still has support, and the short - term price is expected to be volatile and strong due to the improvement of demand expectations and supply - side disturbances [28].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: Not clearly specified [2] - Aluminum: Not clearly specified [3][6] - Alumina: Not clearly specified [3] - Cast Aluminum Alloy: Not clearly specified [3] - Zinc: Not clearly specified [4] - Nickel and Stainless Steel: Slightly bullish [7] - Tin: Not clearly specified [8] - Lithium Carbonate: Not clearly specified [9] - Industrial Silicon: Not clearly specified [10] - Polysilicon: Bearish [11] Core Views - The market is weighing the strength of post - holiday peak - season consumption in China and assessing the risk of US tariff changes, and the global exchange's visible copper inventory is high. Copper prices may adjust to the MA60 moving average [2] - Aluminum inventory has increased seasonally, and short - term aluminum prices are expected to oscillate between 23,000 - 24,000 yuan. Cast aluminum alloy's spread with Shanghai aluminum will be weaker than in previous years. Alumina is in range - bound trading [3] - Glencore's 2026 zinc concentrate production is expected to be cut by nearly 200,000 tons, and the export window of domestic zinc ingots is approaching. Short - term zinc prices are expected to oscillate between 24,200 - 25,600 yuan per ton [4] - Aluminum prices are at a low level, with cost support but insufficient consumption recovery. The import window is open, and aluminum prices are expected to oscillate between 16,500 - 17,000 yuan per ton [6] - Nickel is influenced by the rebound of the metal periphery and the expected reduction of Indonesian ore production, but high inventory is a concern. Short - term trend is slightly bullish [7] - Tin prices have risen significantly, and in the traditional off - season, Indonesian supply is stable. It is recommended to observe the change of out - of - the - money call option premiums [8] - Lithium carbonate is in a strong shock, but downstream trading willingness is weak. Technical analysis shows a strong - shock trend [9] - Industrial silicon demand is weak, and the market is expected to continue to oscillate. Attention should be paid to the resumption and start - up rhythm of large factories in March [10] - Polysilicon production has decreased in February, but downstream silicon wafer production cuts exceed expectations, inventory accumulates, and prices are expected to be weak [11] Summaries by Metal Copper - Wednesday, Shanghai copper closed up in shock, and the spot price was 102,065 yuan. The spread in Shanghai was - 180 yuan, and in Guangdong it was - 220 yuan. It is recommended to continue the inter - period reverse arbitrage of near - month contracts, and copper prices may adjust to the MA60 moving average [2] Aluminum & Alumina & Aluminum Alloy - Shanghai aluminum followed the non - ferrous metals to oscillate strongly. The spot spreads in East China, Central China, and Foshan expanded. Aluminum ingot social inventory increased by 211,000 tons to 1.125 million tons, and aluminum rod inventory increased by 74,000 tons to 383,000 tons. Cast aluminum alloy follows Shanghai aluminum, and the spread with Shanghai aluminum is weaker than in previous years. Alumina's over - supply situation has improved, but the upward driving force is limited, and it is in range - bound trading [3] Zinc - Glencore's 2026 zinc concentrate production is expected to be cut by nearly 200,000 tons. The export window of domestic zinc ingots is approaching, and short - term zinc prices are expected to oscillate between 24,200 - 25,600 yuan per ton [4] Aluminum - The average price of SMM 1 aluminum is 16,525 yuan per ton, with a spread of - 150 yuan per ton against the near - month contract. The import window is open, and aluminum prices are expected to oscillate between 16,500 - 17,000 yuan per ton [6] Nickel and Stainless Steel - Shanghai nickel continued to rebound. It is affected by the rebound of the metal periphery and the expected reduction of Indonesian ore production, but high inventory is a concern. Short - term trend is slightly bullish [7] Tin - Shanghai tin increased significantly with increased positions, breaking through the 400,000 - yuan mark. In January, Indonesia's tin ingot exports increased year - on - year, and in February, the tin ingot exchange in the country completed 3,030 tons of transactions. It is recommended to observe the change of out - of - the - money call option premiums [8] Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate is in a strong shock. There are concerns about the supply side, but downstream trading willingness is weak. Technical analysis shows a strong - shock trend [9] Industrial Silicon - Industrial silicon futures closed slightly up. The downstream silicone开工率 is about 60%, and the demand is weak. The market is expected to continue to oscillate, and attention should be paid to the resumption and start - up rhythm of large factories in March [10] Polysilicon - Polysilicon futures closed slightly down. The acquisition announcement of leading enterprises has limited impact on market sentiment. Production has decreased in February, but downstream silicon wafer production cuts exceed expectations, inventory accumulates, and prices are expected to be weak [11]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: ★★★ [1] - Aluminum: ★★★ [1] - Alumina: ★★★ [1] - Cast Aluminum Alloy: ★★★ [1] - Zinc: ★★★ [1] - Nickel and Stainless Steel: ★★★ [1] - Tin: ★★★ [1] - Lithium Carbonate: ★★★ [1] - Industrial Silicon: ★★★ [1] - Polysilicon: ★★★ [1] Core Views - The market anticipates a continued increase in domestic copper inventories during the holiday, and there is a risk of the copper price adjusting to the MA60 moving average. The aluminum market has adjustment pressure around the Spring Festival, and the supply - demand of aluminum both decline during the long holiday. The zinc market is expected to be high - volatile in the short term, with a supply - demand imbalance. The nickel and stainless - steel market is dominated by policy sentiment, and the tin market awaits post - holiday supply and consumption guidance. The lithium carbonate market has high short - term uncertainty, and the industrial silicon market is expected to continue to fluctuate. The polysilicon market price is expected to maintain a volatile trend [2][3][4][7][8][9][10][11] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper - On the last trading day before the holiday, some buyers of Shanghai copper were active below the MA40 moving average. The market expects domestic copper inventories to continue to accumulate during the holiday. There is a risk of the copper price adjusting to the MA60 moving average, and the inter - period reverse arbitrage strategy is continued [2] Aluminum, Alumina, and Aluminum Alloy - Shanghai aluminum declined with non - ferrous metals. Social inventories continued to increase, and there is adjustment pressure around the Spring Festival. Cast aluminum alloy follows the fluctuation of Shanghai aluminum, with low market activity. The operating capacity of domestic alumina has decreased, but the oversupply situation remains unchanged. The cash cost support of alumina is below 2500 yuan, and it is in a range - bound state [3] Zinc - As the holiday approaches, Shanghai zinc rebounded near the 5 - day moving average and then fell sharply. The downstream procurement basically stopped, and funds mainly reduced positions. The long sentiment in the non - ferrous and precious metal sectors disappeared. The short - term outlook is high - volatility, but the expectation of oversupply of zinc ingots remains unchanged, and the strategy of shorting on rebounds is continued [4] Nickel and Stainless Steel - The rebound of Shanghai nickel was blocked, and market trading was dull. The social inventory of nickel and stainless steel continued to increase. The market confidence declined, and the transaction was light. The market is in a pre - holiday state, waiting for a clear direction [7] Tin - The decline of Shanghai tin expanded during the day, and the relative support of the tin price is at the MA60 moving average. It awaits the guidance of post - holiday supply trends and peak - season consumption rhythms [8] Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate rebounded sharply, and market trading was dull. The overall inventory reduction speed of the market slowed down. There may be spot dumping, and the short - term uncertainty is high [9] Industrial Silicon - Industrial silicon rebounded at the end of the session. The supply side has a phased contraction, and there is a resumption expectation after the holiday. The downstream demand may be dragged down. The inventory is differentiated, and it is expected to continue to fluctuate [10] Polysilicon - The polysilicon futures rose slightly, and the price fluctuation narrowed. In February, the polysilicon production decreased by more than 20% month - on - month, and the downstream silicon wafer production is expected to be reduced by 3%. The market is expected to maintain a volatile trend [11]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The sentiment in the precious metals market has a negative impact on the overall market, but the relatively strong manufacturing PMIs in the US and Europe provide some support. The copper market shows a tight supply of copper ore and a relatively sufficient supply of refined copper, with copper prices expected to remain range - bound at high levels during the holiday. Aluminum prices are likely to fluctuate with an upward bias due to stronger overseas supply - demand fundamentals. The lead market is currently in a weak state, and whether lead prices can stabilize depends on the restocking willingness of downstream battery manufacturers after the Spring Festival. The zinc industry is also weak, but zinc prices may rise following the non - ferrous metal sector due to positive macro - economic expectations. Tin prices are expected to trade in a wide range, and short - term operations are recommended to wait and see. Nickel prices are expected to experience wide - range fluctuations. The supply of lithium carbonate is expected to remain tight in the short term, and upstream producers may have more bargaining power. Alumina prices are recommended to be observed, and the key lies in the impact of disruptions in Guinea's mining and the alleviation of high domestic supply pressure. Stainless steel maintains a strategy of buying on dips. Cast aluminum alloy prices have short - term support [5][8][10][12][14][16][19][22][25][28] Summary by Metal Copper - **Market Information**: Overnight silver and US stocks declined, causing copper prices to rise first and then fall. LME copper 3M closed down 2.9% at $12,855/ton, and SHFE copper's main contract closed at 100,030 yuan/ton. LME copper inventories increased by 4,550 tons to 196,650 tons. Domestic electrolytic copper social inventories increased, and bonded - area inventories decreased slightly. The spot in Shanghai and Guangdong was at a discount to futures, and the import of SHFE copper was at a loss of over 900 yuan/ton. The refined - scrap copper price difference was 3,100 yuan/ton, narrowing slightly [4] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The decline in precious metals dampens market sentiment, but the relatively strong manufacturing PMIs in the US and Europe provide support. The supply of copper ore remains tight, and the supply of refined copper is relatively sufficient. During the long holiday, copper prices are expected to remain range - bound at high levels. Today, the reference range for SHFE copper's main contract is 99,000 - 103,000 yuan/ton, and for LME copper 3M, it is $12,500 - 13,200/ton [5] Aluminum - **Market Information**: The aluminum smelter in Mozambique is expected to shut down for maintenance in March. Precious metals and US stocks declined, causing aluminum prices to rise first and then fall. LME aluminum closed down 0.63% at $3,097/ton, and SHFE aluminum's main contract closed at 23,395 yuan/ton. SHFE aluminum's weighted contract positions decreased by 16,000 to 647,000 lots, and futures warehouse receipts increased by 33,000 to 201,000 tons. Domestic aluminum ingot and aluminum bar inventories increased, the processing fee for aluminum bars continued to rebound, and the market entered a holiday state. The spot in East China was at a discount of 160 yuan/ton to futures, and LME aluminum inventories decreased by 2,200 tons to 484,000 tons [7] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Domestic aluminum ingot and aluminum bar inventories continue to accumulate, and downstream demand is weak in the off - season. LME aluminum inventories remain at a relatively low level, and the high premium of US aluminum in the spot market provides strong support for aluminum prices. With stronger overseas supply - demand fundamentals, aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate with an upward bias during the long holiday. Today, the reference range for SHFE aluminum's main contract is 23,200 - 23,600 yuan/ton, and for LME aluminum 3M, it is $3,050 - 3,140/ton [8] Lead - **Market Information**: On Thursday, the SHFE lead index closed 0.29% lower at 16,705 yuan/ton, with a total open interest of 120,100 lots. As of 15:00 on Thursday, LME lead 3S rose $8 to $1,986/ton, with a total open interest of 175,900 lots. The average price of SMM1 lead ingots was 16,575 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap price difference was 25 yuan/ton. The inventory of lead ingot futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 53,000 tons, and the domestic primary basis was - 60 yuan/ton. The LME lead ingot inventory was 233,000 tons, and the LME lead ingot cancelled warrants were 16,100 tons. The social inventory of lead ingots in major domestic markets was 57,400 tons, an increase of 7,500 tons from February 9 [9] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The visible inventory of lead ore has declined slightly but is still higher than the same period in previous years. The processing fee for lead concentrates remains at a low level. The inventory of waste batteries continues to rise, higher than in 2025. As the Spring Festival approaches, the operating rate of smelters declines seasonally. Lead ingot social inventories continue to accumulate, and the domestic industry is currently in a weak state. Current lead prices are close to the lower end of the long - term trading range, but downstream consumption is mediocre. Whether lead prices can stabilize depends on the restocking willingness of downstream battery manufacturers after the Spring Festival [10] Zinc - **Market Information**: On Thursday, the SHFE zinc index closed 0.18% higher at 24,678 yuan/ton, with a total open interest of 193,900 lots. As of 15:00 on Thursday, LME zinc 3S rose $8 to $3,424.5/ton, with a total open interest of 235,500 lots. The average price of SMM0 zinc ingots was 24,480 yuan/ton. The inventory of zinc ingot futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 43,100 tons, and the LME zinc ingot inventory was 105,300 tons. The social inventory of zinc ingots in major domestic markets was 138,100 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons from February 9 [11] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The accumulation of visible zinc ore inventory has slowed down, and the TC of zinc concentrates has stopped falling and stabilized. Domestic zinc ingot social inventories have started to accumulate. The operating performance of downstream enterprises is mediocre, and the finished - product inventories of die - casting zinc alloy and zinc oxide enterprises have increased rapidly. The domestic zinc industry is in a weak state. However, short - term funds are greatly affected by macro - economic sentiment. As the Spring Festival holiday approaches, there is still a risk of abnormal price movements in non - ferrous metals during the holiday. The strong US PMI has boosted market expectations of a recovery in consumption, which may drive zinc prices to rise following the non - ferrous metal sector [12] Tin - **Market Information**: On February 12, tin prices fluctuated. The main SHFE tin contract closed at 391,320 yuan/ton, down 0.86% from the previous day. In terms of supply, the operating rate of smelters in Yunnan remained stable at a high level last week, while the refined tin output in Jiangxi was still low due to the shortage of scrap tin raw materials. However, the upward momentum was insufficient after the two regions resumed from maintenance, and there were constraints on the scrap side and high - price wait - and - see attitudes from downstream. In the short term, supply is difficult to increase significantly. In terms of demand, although the price decline has released some rigid procurement demand and spot trading has improved slightly, the overall price is still at a high level, and downstream restocking willingness before the festival is still not obvious, with most adopting a cautious wait - and - see attitude. Coupled with the cost pressure on end - user industries from the overall rise in the metal sector, the upward transmission speed of demand is slow, and the actual support for the spot market is limited [13] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: After the second decline in precious metals prices, there are signs of stabilization, and tin prices may rebound accordingly. Although tin prices still maintain an upward trend in the medium - to - long - term, in the short term, with the marginal easing of tin ingot supply - demand and the steady increase in inventory recently, there is also pressure for a significant increase. It is expected that tin prices will mainly trade in a wide range. In terms of operation, it is recommended to wait and see. The reference trading range for the domestic main contract is 350,000 - 410,000 yuan/ton, and for overseas LME tin, it is $46,000 - 50,000/ton [14] Nickel - **Market Information**: On February 12, nickel prices fluctuated. The main SHFE nickel contract closed at 139,610 yuan/ton, up 0.18% from the previous day. In the spot market, the premiums of various brands remained stable. The average premium of Russian nickel to the nearby contract was 50 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, and the average premium of Jinchuan nickel was 9,500 yuan/ton, also unchanged. In terms of cost, nickel ore prices remained stable. The ex - factory price of 10 - 12% high - nickel pig iron averaged 1,048 yuan/nickel point, up 0.5 yuan/nickel point from the previous day [15] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: After the second decline in precious metals and risk - asset prices, there are signs of stabilization, with short - term rebound demand. However, nickel still faces fundamental pressure, and short - term nickel prices are expected to mainly trade in a wide range. On the evening of February 10, Tri Winarno, the Director - General of Minerals and Coal at the ESDM Ministry, revealed that the approved nickel ore production quota is between 260 million and 270 million tons, which is close to market expectations and is expected to have a limited impact on nickel prices. The reference trading range for SHFE nickel prices is 120,000 - 150,000 yuan/ton, and for LME nickel 3M contracts, it is $16,000 - 18,000/ton [16] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Information**: The MMLC lithium carbonate spot index closed at 142,316 yuan in the evening session, up 2.30% from the previous working day. The average price of MMLC battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 3,200 yuan (+2.29%) to 138,800 - 146,700 yuan, and the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased by 2.31%. The closing price of the LC2605 contract was 149,420 yuan, down 0.56% from the previous day's closing price. The average premium of battery - grade lithium carbonate in the trading market was - 1,200 yuan. The SMM weekly inventory was 102,932 tons, down 2,531 tons (-2.4%) from the previous week, with a decrease of 1,436 tons in the upstream and 1,095 tons in the downstream and other sectors [18] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: On Thursday, the futures market adjusted, and the Wenhua Commodity Index fell 0.22%. On the supply side, the weekly output of domestic lithium carbonate has decreased by about 10.7% from the peak. On the demand side, the demand expectation is strong, and the production schedule of the material sector in March is expected to increase significantly. It is expected that the short - term supply - demand tightness of domestic lithium carbonate will continue. If there is no unexpected supply recovery in the mining sector, upstream producers will have more bargaining power in the post - holiday spot market. In the future, attention should be paid to the atmosphere in the commodity market, the resumption progress of lithium mines in Jiangxi, and the changes in the tradable inventory of salt plants and traders. Today, the reference trading range for the GZCE lithium carbonate 2605 contract is 143,000 - 157,000 yuan/ton [19] Alumina - **Market Information**: On February 12, 2026, as of 15:00, the alumina index fell 0.29% to 2,812 yuan/ton, with a total open interest of 441,800 lots, a decrease of 16,000 lots from the previous trading day. In terms of basis, the spot price in Shandong remained at 2,555 yuan/ton, at a discount of 253 yuan/ton to the main contract [21] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: At the mining end, workers at a mine in the Boké region of Guinea have launched an indefinite strike. This region is the core area for Guinea's bauxite. It is necessary to observe whether the impact of the strike will expand. Currently, production and shipping are normal. The over - capacity situation at the alumina smelting end is difficult to change in the short term, and the inventory accumulation trend continues. Although there have been more capacity maintenance recently, the overall output is still at a high level. In the short term, it is recommended to wait and see. The key to future price trends lies in whether the disturbances at the Guinea mining end can materialize and whether the high domestic supply pressure can be effectively alleviated through policies or market means. The reference trading range for the domestic main contract AO2605 is 2,750 - 3,000 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to domestic supply - reduction policies, Guinea's ore policies, and the US Federal Reserve's monetary policy [22] Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: At 15:00 on Thursday, the main stainless - steel contract closed at 13,970 yuan/ton, down 1.24% (-174) from the previous day, with an open interest of 198,500 lots, a decrease of 6,938 lots from the previous trading day. In the spot market, the price of Delong 304 cold - rolled coil in the Foshan market remained at 14,000 yuan/ton, and the price of Hongwang 304 cold - rolled coil in the Wuxi market remained at 14,150 yuan/ton. The Foshan basis was - 240 (-300), and the Wuxi basis was - 90 (-300). The price of Hongwang 201 in Foshan was 9,350 yuan/ton, and the price of Hongwang annealed 430 was 7,750 yuan/ton, both unchanged from the previous day. In terms of raw materials, the ex - factory price of high - nickel pig iron in Shandong was 1,040 yuan/nickel, and the recycling price of 304 scrap steel industrial materials in Baoding was 9,000 yuan/ton, both unchanged from the previous day. The high - carbon ferrochrome price in the northern main - producing area was 8,550 yuan/50 - base ton, also unchanged. The futures inventory was 55,253 tons, an increase of 762 tons from the previous day. As of February 6, social inventories increased to 914,200 tons, a 1.07% increase from the previous period, with the 300 - series inventory at 632,000 tons, a 2.49% increase [24] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: From the supply side, although the supply of raw materials has recovered, under the influence of the steel mill's price - limit policy, the shipment rhythm of agents has generally slowed down. On the demand side, restricted by the pre - Spring Festival seasonal off - season, the overall market purchasing willingness is not strong, and the acceptance of high - priced resources is limited. Traders mostly choose to actively sell goods, reduce inventory, and mainly execute previous orders, with weak willingness to actively stock up. Steel mills will cut production collectively in February, and the market generally believes that the subsequent supply will gradually tighten, and the short - term supply pressure is relatively controllable. Overall, the stainless - steel fundamentals still have support, and the strategy of buying on dips remains unchanged. The reference range for the main contract is 13,500 - 14,500 yuan/ton [25] Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: Yesterday, the price of cast aluminum alloy rebounded slightly. The main AD2604 contract closed 0.25% higher at 22,260 yuan/ton (as of 15:00). The weighted contract positions decreased to 23,400 lots, and the trading volume was 11,200 lots, with increased trading volume. Warehouse receipts decreased by 200 tons to 66,600 tons. The price difference between the AL2604 and AD2604 contracts was 1,430 yuan/ton, narrowing compared to the previous period. The average price of domestic mainstream ADC12 remained stable, and the

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Copper**: Overnight, both domestic and international copper prices rose first and then fell, with the spot import of refined copper in China remaining at a loss. The better - than - expected US non - farm payrolls in January reduced the urgency of the Fed's interest rate cut. Downstream demand slowed as companies began to take holidays, and social inventories increased. Copper prices are still influenced by financial attributes and market sentiment, showing a generally oscillating and bullish trend. It is recommended to buy on dips, but hold light positions during the Spring Festival due to potential geopolitical disturbances in overseas markets [1]. - **Aluminum**: Overnight, alumina oscillated and adjusted, while Shanghai aluminum and aluminum alloy trended weakly. Although alumina prices rose due to overseas price increases and domestic raw material winter storage, the upward trend is difficult to sustain due to inventory backlog and expiring warehouse receipt cancellation pressure. As the Spring Festival approaches, demand remains weak, and social inventories are accumulating. The center of gravity and volatility of aluminum prices are decreasing, but risks related to the US - Iran situation should be watched [1][2]. - **Nickel**: Overnight, LME nickel and Shanghai nickel both rose. The approved nickel ore production quota in Indonesia has shrunk significantly. The premium of nickel ore is strengthening, and the price of ferronickel is oscillating at a high level. There are concerns about tight resource supply in the future. Although the demand is weakening in the short - term, the cost support is strong. It is advisable to pay attention to the opportunity of lightly testing long positions near the cost line. Also, hold light positions during the Spring Festival due to potential overseas disturbances [3]. 3. Summary of Each Section 3.1 Research Views - **Copper**: The US non - farm payrolls in January showed strong data, which reduced the probability of the Fed's interest rate cut. Downstream demand slowed, and social inventories increased. Copper prices are still affected by financial factors and market sentiment, with an overall oscillating and bullish trend. It is recommended to buy on dips and hold light positions during the Spring Festival [1]. - **Aluminum**: Alumina prices rose due to overseas price increases and domestic winter storage, but the upward trend is unsustainable due to inventory and warehouse receipt pressure. As the Spring Festival approaches, demand is weak, and social inventories are increasing. Aluminum prices are trending down, and attention should be paid to the US - Iran situation [1][2]. - **Nickel**: Nickel prices rose overnight. The approved nickel ore production quota in Indonesia has been significantly reduced. There are concerns about tight resource supply. Although short - term demand is weakening, cost support is strong. It is advisable to look for opportunities to test long positions near the cost line and hold light positions during the Spring Festival [3]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Copper**: On February 11, 2026, the price of flat - water copper decreased by 420 yuan/ton compared to the previous day, and the premium of flat - water copper decreased by 65 yuan/ton. LME copper inventory remained unchanged, while SHFE copper warehouse receipts increased by 12,958 tons. The active contract import profit increased by 108 yuan/ton [5]. - **Aluminum**: On February 11, 2026, the Wuxi aluminum price decreased by 20 yuan/ton, and the Nanhai price increased by 30 yuan/ton. LME aluminum inventory remained unchanged, while SHFE aluminum warehouse receipts increased by 1,050 tons. The social inventory of electrolytic aluminum increased by 34,000 tons, and the alumina inventory decreased by 19,000 tons [6]. - **Nickel**: On February 11, 2026, the price of Jinchuan nickel increased by 3,400 yuan/ton. LME nickel inventory remained unchanged, while SHFE nickel warehouse receipts decreased by 12 tons. The social inventory of nickel increased by 2,784 tons [6]. - **Zinc**: On February 11, 2026, the main settlement price of zinc increased by 0.2%. LME zinc inventory remained unchanged, while SHFE zinc inventory increased by 793 tons. The social inventory of zinc increased by 0.98 tons [8]. - **Tin**: On February 11, 2026, the main settlement price of tin increased by 1.5%. LME tin inventory remained unchanged, while SHFE tin inventory decreased by 1,718 tons [8]. - **Lead**: On February 11, 2026, the average price of 1 lead increased by 50 yuan/ton. LME lead inventory remained unchanged, while SHFE lead inventory increased by 1007 tons [5]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Spot Premium**: The report provides charts of spot premiums for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2026, which can help analyze the premium trends of these metals [10][11][12][13][14]. - **SHFE Near - Far Month Spread**: The report presents charts of SHFE near - far month spreads for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2021 - 2026, which can be used to analyze the spread trends [16][17][19][20][21][22]. - **LME Inventory**: The report shows charts of LME inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2026, which can be used to analyze inventory trends [23][24][25][26][27][28]. - **SHFE Inventory**: The report provides charts of SHFE inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2026, which can be used to analyze inventory trends [29][30][31][32][33][34]. - **Social Inventory**: The report offers charts of social inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series from 2019 - 2026, which can be used to analyze social inventory trends [35][36][37][38][39][40]. - **Smelting Profit**: The report presents charts of copper concentrate index, copper rough processing fee, aluminum smelting profit, ferronickel smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless steel 304 smelting profit margin from 2019 - 2026, which can be used to analyze smelting profit trends [42][43][44][45][46][47]. 3.4 Team Introduction - **Zhan Dapeng**: A science master, currently the director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, a senior precious metal researcher, and a gold intermediate investment analyst. He has over a decade of commodity research experience, serves many leading spot enterprises, and has published dozens of professional articles. His team has won the Best Metal Industry Futures Research Team Award from Futures Daily and Securities Times for four consecutive sessions [49]. - **Wang Heng**: A master of finance from the University of Adelaide, Australia, currently a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly focusing on aluminum and silicon research. He has won relevant industry awards and provides services such as policy interpretation and risk management for customers [49]. - **Zhu Xi**: A master of science from the University of Warwick, UK, currently a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly focusing on lithium and nickel research. She has won relevant industry awards and provides services for new energy industry leading enterprises [50].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Views - **Copper**: Today, copper prices fluctuated and weakened, with a slight decline in the open interest of Shanghai copper. At the macro level, as the Chinese Spring Festival holiday approaches, market trading activity decreases, and market volatility also declines. At the industrial level, the social inventory of electrolytic copper decreased on Monday, and downstream buyers showed a strong willingness to replenish inventory at low prices. In the short term, attention can be paid to the trend of silver, as its short - term trend may affect copper prices [7]. - **Aluminum**: Today, aluminum prices fluctuated and weakened, with a slight decline in the open interest of Shanghai aluminum. At the macro level, as the Chinese Spring Festival holiday approaches, market trading activity decreases, and market volatility also declines. At the industrial level, there is a seasonal inventory build - up of domestic electrolytic aluminum. Technically, after a sharp decline at the beginning of the month, aluminum prices have stabilized, and the amplitude has significantly narrowed, with weak short - term drivers [8]. - **Nickel**: Today, nickel prices fluctuated downward, with a slight decline in the open interest of Shanghai nickel. From the disk perspective, non - ferrous metals generally weakened, and nickel prices followed suit. At the industrial level, short - term drivers are weak, and nickel ore port inventories are seasonally decreasing from a high level compared to previous years. Technically, the overall price is oscillating between 130,000 and 140,000 yuan, with continuously decreasing volatility. Before the holiday, capital drivers are weak, and it follows the non - ferrous metal sector [9]. Industry Dynamics Copper - On February 10, SMM reported that on that day, spot goods holders showed a willingness to dump goods, while downstream consumption weakened as some enterprises entered the holiday and their备货 was basically completed, resulting in a slight decline in spot premiums and discounts. In terms of supply, previously locked - in imported goods have been arriving at ports one after another, and the market circulation volume has gradually increased. However, it is worth noting that most holders of deliverable brands choose to hold back goods to wait for delivery in order to obtain the monthly spread, resulting in a tightening of deliverable goods in the market. At the same time, buyers' willingness to take delivery is low, and the market presents a stalemate of weak supply and demand, which is expected to suppress spot trading activity and premium and discount performance [11]. - On February 9, Mysteel's social inventory of electrolytic copper was 341,200 tons, a decrease of 11,100 tons compared to February 5 [12]. Aluminum - On February 10, SMM reported that in terms of aluminum ingot inventory, the inventory of aluminum ingots in major consumption areas increased by 4,500 tons compared to the previous day, and the main sources of inventory build - up were Guangdong and Wuxi. In the short term, high aluminum prices may continue to suppress terminal demand. Coupled with the impact of the Spring Festival holiday for downstream enterprises, aluminum ingots still face the risk of inventory build - up, and spot premiums and discounts are expected to continue to be under pressure [13]. - On February 9, Mysteel's social inventory of electrolytic aluminum was 875,000 tons, an increase of 22,000 tons compared to February 5 [14]. Nickel - On February 10, the price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel was 133,400 - 144,500 yuan/ton, with an average price of 138,950 yuan/ton, a decrease of 500 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The mainstream spot premium quotation range for Jinchuan 1 electrolytic nickel was 9,500 - 10,200 yuan/ton, with an average premium of 9,850 yuan/ton, an increase of 350 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The spot premium and discount quotation range for domestic mainstream brand electrowon nickel was - 400 - 400 yuan/ton [15]. Related Charts Copper - The report includes charts such as copper spot premiums and discounts, Shanghai electrolytic copper social inventory, LME copper注销仓单比例, global copper exchange inventory (SHFE + LME + COMEX), and Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipt inventory [16][18][19]. Aluminum - The report includes charts such as aluminum basis, aluminum monthly spread, domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum, overseas exchange inventory of electrolytic aluminum (LME + COMEX), aluminum rod inventory, and Shanghai - London ratio [29][31][33]. Nickel - The report includes charts such as nickel basis, nickel monthly spread, LME inventory, Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory, LME nickel trend, and nickel ore port inventory [41][43][45].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report Copper - Overnight, both domestic and international copper prices rose and then fell, with the import loss of domestic refined copper spot narrowing. - US economic data shows mixed signals: the January ISM services PMI was 53.8, in line with December and the highest since October 2024, but the new orders index slowed; the January ADP new jobs were only 22,000, far below the expected 45,000, indicating weakening labor - market momentum. - Inventories across LME, Comex, and SHFE increased. - After digesting the impact of precious - metal adjustments, copper prices rebounded due to news. However, the copper market still faces weak spot fundamentals, rising inventories, and a demand vacuum around the Spring Festival. Prices may fluctuate around the Spring Festival, so caution is advised when chasing highs. But the rigid constraints on the copper - mine end and the certainty of long - term demand mean that any significant decline will attract long - term allocation funds and industrial buyers, laying a solid foundation for the medium - to - long - term rise of copper prices [1]. Aluminum - Overnight, alumina, Shanghai aluminum, and aluminum alloy all trended weakly. - Recently, alumina maintenance in various regions has increased, and supply disruptions have led to a narrow - range recovery. As the downstream stocking nears the end and logistics stagnates, alumina inventories are gradually accumulating and will decline as market sentiment fades. - The domestic proportion of aluminum water has decreased. High prices and repeated environmental protection controls in the Central Plains have led downstream to generally reduce or cancel pre - holiday stocking. Attention should be paid to the development of the US - Iran situation and whether downstream stocking sentiment improves after the price correction [1][2]. Nickel - Overnight, LME nickel and Shanghai nickel both declined. LME inventory increased, while SHFE warehouse receipts decreased, and the premium remained negative. - In terms of fundamentals, the prices of nickel ore and nickel iron have strengthened, possibly due to concerns about supply shortages, and the marginal cost support has continued to rise. - Affected by the Spring Festival in February, stainless - steel weekly inventories have increased, but there is much maintenance on the supply side. In the new - energy sector, the MHP price is firm, providing strong cost support for nickel sulfate, but spot procurement and sales are relatively sluggish, and the output of ternary materials is also expected to decline. - Overall, although short - term demand has weakened, cost support remains strong, and the market sentiment has improved. With many disturbances from Indonesian news, attention should be paid to the opportunity of lightly testing long positions near the cost line [2]. 3. Summary of Each Section 3.1 Daily Data Monitoring Copper - Market prices: The price of flat - copper increased by 3,075 yuan/ton, the price of 1 bright scrap copper in Guangdong rose by 1,000 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap price difference in Guangdong increased by 2,620 yuan/ton. - Inventory: LME inventory remained unchanged, SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 751 tons, and the total SHFE inventory increased by 7,067 tons on a weekly basis, and the social inventory remained unchanged. - Other indicators: The LME 0 - 3 premium decreased by 9.3 US dollars/ton, and the active - contract import profit and loss changed from a loss of 2,952.1 yuan/ton to a profit of 337.9 yuan/ton [3]. Lead - Market prices: The average price of 1 lead remained unchanged, and the price of some recycled lead products decreased. - Inventory: LME inventory remained unchanged, SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 174 tons, and the weekly inventory increased by 1,233 tons. - Premium: The 3 - cash premium decreased, and the active - contract import profit decreased [3]. Aluminum - Market prices: The prices of aluminum in Wuxi and Nanhai increased, the spot premium increased by 10 yuan/ton, and the price of some aluminum - related products remained unchanged or increased slightly. - Inventory: LME inventory remained unchanged, SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 423 tons, the total SHFE inventory increased by 19,718 tons on a weekly basis, the electrolytic - aluminum social inventory increased by 34,000 tons, and the alumina social inventory increased by 10,000 tons. - Premium: The 3 - cash premium decreased, and the active - contract import loss decreased [4]. Nickel - Market prices: The price of Jinchuan nickel increased by 2,550 yuan/ton, and the prices of some nickel - related products remained unchanged or decreased slightly. - Inventory: LME inventory remained unchanged, SHFE nickel warehouse receipts decreased by 108 tons, the weekly SHFE nickel inventory increased by 4,602 tons, the stainless - steel warehouse receipts decreased by 253 tons, and the nickel social inventory increased by 2,784 tons. - Premium: The 3 - cash premium decreased, and the active - contract import loss decreased [4]. Zinc - Market prices: The main - contract settlement price decreased by 0.3%, and the prices of most zinc - related products decreased. - Inventory: The weekly SHFE inventory increased by 793 tons, LME inventory remained unchanged, and the weekly social inventory increased by 3,800 tons. - Other indicators: The LME 0 - 3 premium decreased by 1.75 US dollars/ton, and the active - contract import loss changed from a loss of 2,859 yuan/ton to break - even [6]. Tin - Market prices: The main - contract settlement price increased by 5.2%, the SMM spot price increased by 13,150 yuan/ton, and the prices of tin concentrates decreased significantly. - Inventory: The weekly SHFE inventory increased by 748 tons, and LME inventory remained unchanged. - Other indicators: The LME 0 - 3 premium increased by 58.96 US dollars/ton, and the active - contract import loss changed from a loss of 33,775 yuan/ton to break - even [6]. 3.2 Chart Analysis - **Spot Premium**: Charts show the historical trends of spot premiums for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2026 [8][9][10][12]. - **SHFE Near - Far - Month Spread**: Charts display the historical trends of the spread between the first and second contracts for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2021 - 2026 [14][17][18][19]. - **LME Inventory**: Charts present the historical trends of LME inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2026 [20][22][24][25]. - **SHFE Inventory**: Charts show the historical trends of SHFE inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2026 [26][28][30][31]. - **Social Inventory**: Charts display the historical trends of social inventories for copper (including bonded areas), aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series from 2019 - 2026 [32][34][36][37]. - **Smelting Profit**: Charts show the historical trends of copper - concentrate index, rough - copper processing fee, aluminum - smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc - smelting profit, and stainless - steel 304 smelting profit rate from 2019 - 2026 [39][41][43][44]. 3.3 Team Introduction - **Zhan Dapeng**: A science master, currently the director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, a senior precious - metal researcher, and a gold intermediate investment analyst. He has over a decade of commodity - research experience, serves many leading spot enterprises, and has published dozens of professional articles. His team has won the Best Metal Industry Futures Research Team Award from Futures Daily & Securities Times for four consecutive sessions [46]. - **Wang Heng**: A finance master from the University of Adelaide, Australia, an analyst at Everbright Futures Research Institute focusing on aluminum and silicon. He has won relevant industry awards and provides in - depth research on the new - energy industry chain and hedging accounting [46]. - **Zhu Xi**: A science master from the University of Warwick, UK, an analyst at Everbright Futures Research Institute concentrating on lithium and nickel. She focuses on the integration of non - ferrous metals and new energy, serves many leading new - energy enterprises, and has written many in - depth reports [47].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: Not clearly stated [1] - Aluminum: Not clearly stated [1] - Alumina: Not clearly stated [1] - Cast Aluminum Alloy: Not clearly stated [1] - Zinc: One star, indicating a bullish bias but low operability on the market [1] - Nickel and Stainless Steel: Not clearly stated [1] - Tin: Not clearly stated [1] - Lithium Carbonate: Not clearly stated [1] - Industrial Silicon: Not clearly stated [1] - Polysilicon: One star, indicating a bearish bias but low operability on the market [1] Core Views - The overall market of non - ferrous metals is affected by various factors such as geopolitical situation, supply - demand relationship, and cost. Different metals show different trends and investment opportunities [2][3][4] Summary by Metal Copper - On Friday, Shanghai copper reduced positions and fell to the MA20 moving average. The SMM spot copper price was 104,410 yuan, with a Shanghai copper discount of 150 yuan. The domestic social inventory decreased slightly to 322,800 tons. It is necessary to follow the volume - price relationship and observe the moving average [2] Aluminum, Alumina, and Aluminum Alloy - Shanghai aluminum fluctuated sharply, with spot premiums and discounts in East China, Central China, and Foshan dropping to - 210 yuan, - 390 yuan, and - 250 yuan respectively. The aluminum rod processing fee was around - 100 yuan. Due to geopolitical uncertainties, the market was driven by short - term sentiment, deviating from fundamentals. Cast aluminum alloy followed the fluctuations of Shanghai aluminum, with low market activity. The domestic alumina operating capacity remained high, and the balance was in significant surplus. When the basis weakens, pay attention to short - selling opportunities [3] Zinc - Bulls reduced positions at high prices, and Shanghai zinc fell from a high level. In 2026, the zinc fundamentals continued to have oversupply. After the price soared due to structural mismatch, there was a high probability of the market forming a top through oscillation. It is advisable to focus on short - selling opportunities on rebounds. Selling deep out - of - the - money call options has a relatively high winning rate [4] Nickel and Stainless Steel - Shanghai nickel tumbled from a high level, and the market trading was active. After the stainless - steel spot price soared, the downstream was cautious in purchasing. Although the steel mill inventory was at a low level, the traders were reluctant to lower prices, supporting the strong operation of the spot market. It is recommended to be cautious due to the market's fear of high prices [7] Tin - Shanghai tin reduced positions to below 100,000 lots and fell to the MA20 moving average at the 410,000 - yuan level. The spot tin price was adjusted to 428,650 yuan, with a real - time premium of 2,650 yuan to the delivery month. It is recommended to participate in selling out - of - the - money call options of the 2603 contract [8] Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate hit the daily limit down. Affected by exchange policies, the market participation decreased. The high - priced lithium carbonate might have led to a large number of hedging positions being closed. The market was mainly dominated by strong spot and bullish speculative positions, with a fragile holding structure. The overall market inventory reduction speed slowed down, and the futures price was in high - level oscillation, with high short - term uncertainty [9] Industrial Silicon - Industrial silicon oscillated and closed down. It rose to above 9,000 yuan/ton during the day due to the news of a large factory's production cut but then gave back the gains. If the Xinjiang large factory's monthly production cut of 50% is implemented, it may affect the supply by about 60,000 tons in February. The downstream polysilicon is expected to continue to reduce production. Under the supply - demand pattern, industrial silicon is expected to enter the de - stocking stage in February. If the actual production cut of the large factory is implemented, the short - term market may test the 9,000 - yuan/ton mark, but the price increase space is limited [10] Polysilicon - Polysilicon was dragged down by the decline of precious metals and its weak fundamentals, with the price falling below the previous low of 48,000 yuan/ton and closing at 47,140 yuan/ton. Although leading polysilicon enterprises have reduced production, the downstream demand improvement is limited. The market trading is light, and the industry sentiment is weak. If the commodity market recovers after a general decline, polysilicon may rebound slightly, but the actual transaction center of gravity continues to move down, and the market price is still expected to decline, with the lower support at 45,000 yuan/ton [11]