LPG供应缺口
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供应端矛盾逐渐积累,现货价格普遍上涨
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2026-03-31 06:10
Report Summary 1. Report's Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View The contradiction on the supply side of LPG is gradually accumulating, and spot prices have generally risen. The unclear situation in the Middle East has led to a low number of oil tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz, and the impact on LPG supply is gradually being realized. The arrival prices continue to rise, and domestic spot prices in various regions have generally increased. Before the substantial recovery of Middle East logistics, the LPG supply gap will persist and its impact will gradually accumulate, and downstream chemical plants will face the pressure of passive production cuts due to insufficient raw materials. Although there is room for growth in US exports, it cannot fully offset the Middle East gap, and attention should be paid to the potential negotiation progress between Iran and the United States [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - On March 30, the regional prices were as follows: Shandong market, 6400 - 6450 yuan/ton; Northeast market, 5900 - 6250 yuan/ton; North China market, 6250 - 6570 yuan/ton; East China market, 6800 - 7400 yuan/ton; Yangtze River market, 6730 - 6960 yuan/ton; Northwest market, 5750 - 5900 yuan/ton; South China market, 7200 - 7450 yuan/ton [1]. - In the second half of April 2026, the CIF prices of propane and butane for frozen cargoes in East China were both 1070 US dollars/ton, up 16 US dollars/ton. The RMB - converted prices of propane and butane were both 8154 yuan/ton, up 131 yuan/ton. In South China, the CIF prices of propane and butane for frozen cargoes were also 1070 US dollars/ton, up 16 US dollars/ton, and the RMB - converted prices were both 8154 yuan/ton, up 131 yuan/ton [1]. Strategy - Unilateral: Short - term violent fluctuations, mainly on the sidelines in the short term. - Inter - period: None. - Cross - variety: None. - Spot - futures: None. - Options: None [2]
供应缺口或持续积累,到岸成本再度反弹
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2026-03-27 05:13
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The supply gap of LPG may continue to accumulate, and the arrival cost has rebounded again. The market's expectation of the easing of the Iranian situation has increased, leading to a decline in crude oil and internal and external prices. However, the war has not really subsided, and the number of oil tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz remains low, indicating that the impact on LPG supply continues to spread. The arrival price rebounded again yesterday. The spot prices in various domestic regions showed mixed trends yesterday. The mainstream transaction prices of civil LPG and ether-based C4 in Shandong decreased compared with the previous working day, and the sales volume of manufacturers was poor, with the market sentiment declining. Before the substantial recovery of the Middle East logistics, the LPG supply gap will continue to exist and its impact will gradually accumulate. Attention should be paid to the potential negotiation progress between Iran and the United States [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - On March 26, the regional prices were as follows: Shandong market, 6180 - 6250; Northeast market, 5620 - 6010; North China market, 6200 - 6350; East China market, 6700 - 7350; Yangtze River market, 6840 - 6960; Northwest market, 5700 - 5900; South China market, 7150 - 7400 [1]. - In the second half of April 2026, the arrival price of frozen LPG in East China was 1050 US dollars/ton for propane and 1050 US dollars/ton for butane, both up 70 US dollars/ton. The RMB - equivalent price was 7984 yuan/ton for propane and 7984 yuan/ton for butane, both up 549 yuan/ton [1]. - In the second half of April 2026, the arrival price of frozen LPG in South China was 1050 US dollars/ton for propane and 1050 US dollars/ton for butane, both up 70 US dollars/ton. The RMB - equivalent price was 7984 yuan/ton for propane and 7984 yuan/ton for butane, both up 549 yuan/ton [1]. Strategy - Unilateral: Short - term sharp fluctuations, mainly on the sidelines in the short term. - Inter - period: None. - Cross - variety: None. - Spot - futures: None. - Options: None [2].