Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; Inter - period: None; Inter - variety: None; Futures - spot: None; Options: None [2] Core View of the Report - PG's futures price significantly retraced after reaching 4,500 yuan/ton, reflecting that the supply - demand pattern of LPG has not substantially reversed, and overseas supply remains abundant. The LPG shipment volume from the Middle East increased significantly in September. Although there is significant resistance above the market, the basis strengthened again after consecutive retracements, and the futures price is relatively low, so the downside space is expected to be limited [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - On September 23, the regional prices were as follows: Shandong market 4,510 - 4,570 yuan/ton; Northeast market 3,970 - 4,330 yuan/ton; North China market 4,350 - 4,650 yuan/ton; East China market 4,300 - 4,550 yuan/ton; Yangtze River region market 4,460 - 4,750 yuan/ton; Northwest market 4,500 - 4,605 yuan/ton; South China market 4,498 - 4,750 yuan/ton [1] - In the second half of October 2025, the CIF prices of frozen propane and butane in East China were 598 dollars/ton and 585 dollars/ton respectively, both up 1 dollar/ton, equivalent to 4,678 yuan/ton and 4,576 yuan/ton in RMB, up 5 yuan/ton and 4 yuan/ton respectively. In South China, the CIF prices of frozen propane and butane were 591 dollars/ton and 578 dollars/ton respectively, both up 1 dollar/ton, equivalent to 4,623 yuan/ton and 4,522 yuan/ton in RMB, up 4 yuan/ton and 5 yuan/ton respectively [1] - The LPG shipment volume from the Middle East in September is expected to be 5.16 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.16 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 1.37 million tons [1]

1、\t8月19日地区价格：山东市场，4420-4500；东北市场，3900-4110；华北市场，4280-4620；华东市场，4280-4480； 沿江市场，4480-4700；西北市场，4200-4300；华南市场，4428-4580。（数据来源：卓创资讯） 2、\t2025年9月下半月中国华东冷冻货到岸价格丙烷568美元/吨，跌4美元/吨，丁烷545美元/吨，跌4美元/吨，折合 人民币价格丙烷4462元/吨，跌29元/吨，丁烷4281元/吨，跌30元/吨。（数据来源：卓创资讯） 3、\t2025年9月下半月中国华南冷冻货到岸价格丙烷560美元/吨，跌4美元/吨，丁烷537美元/吨，跌4美元/吨，折合 人民币价格丙烷4399元/吨，跌29元/吨，丁烷4219元/吨，跌29元/吨。（数据来源：卓创资讯） 液化石油气日报 | 2025-08-20 产销温和，下游刚需为主 市场分析 LPG整体供需格局维持宽松，市场弱势运行，近期出现一些边际利好但尚不足以逆转氛围，昨日外盘价格再度出 现下跌。现货方面，昨日山东、西北及华南区域价格上涨，其余区域维稳，整体市场产销温和，下游刚需为主。 供应方面，海外供应整体维持充裕 ...

Core Viewpoints - PDH unit profits are continuously recovering, the operating load is rising, and the chemical demand for propane provides short - term support for prices [2] - The external release volume of domestic refineries decreases seasonally, and the recovery pace of arrivals is slow, so the supply of domestic gas tends to be stable [2] - Propane inventories in North America are higher than the same period last year, entering the inventory accumulation cycle, and combined with increased sales in the Middle East, it suppresses the international market [2] - The peak combustion season is approaching the end, the terminal demand is weakly declining, and the spot price continues to decline slightly [2] - LPG maintains a pattern of weak supply and demand. Overseas inventory accumulation and seasonal weakening of demand suppress the market, but the recovery of PDH demand provides bottom - line support, and it will fluctuate weakly in the short term [3] Data Indicators (Showing Multiple Data Trends) - Propane Far - East CIF price FEI: M1 settlement price (daily), FEI and Brent ratio (daily) seasonality, PDH profit/operating rate, FEI/Brent ratio and PDH profit [4] - FEI/MOPJ spread (daily) seasonality, propane Far - East CIF price FEI M1 - M2 (daily) seasonality [8] - FEI discount, Middle - East FOB discount (daily) [9][10] - Propane US FOB price: M1 settlement price (daily), MB and WTI ratio (daily) seasonality [11] - CP M1 - MB M1 [12] - VLGC freight [14] - US propane weekly production, propane imports from the US (weekly) seasonality, propane inventory in the US (weekly) seasonality, propane exports from the US (weekly) seasonality [16][18][19]