1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral, with a short - term recommendation of holding off on trading [2] - Inter - period: None [2] - Cross - variety: None [2] - Futures - spot: None [2] - Options: None [2] 2. Core Viewpoints - The external LPG price declined, and the futures market fluctuated within a range. The mainstream transaction price of civil LPG in Shandong decreased, but downstream purchasing enthusiasm increased, and factory shipments improved. The price of ether - post carbon four in Shandong rose, driven by rising crude oil prices and individual low - price sales halts. Overall, the medium - term LPG supply - demand pattern remains in a state of oversupply, with insufficient market drivers, and warranting caution due to potential disruptions from warrant trading [1] 3. Summary by Related Content Market Analysis - On December 18, regional prices were as follows: Shandong market, 4300 - 4410 yuan/ton; Northeast market, 4190 - 4300 yuan/ton; North China market, 4300 - 4350 yuan/ton; East China market, 4320 - 4405 yuan/ton; Yangtze River market, 4550 - 4960 yuan/ton; Northwest market, 4080 - 4380 yuan/ton; South China market, 4440 - 4580 yuan/ton [1] - In the second half of January 2026, the CIF price of frozen propane in East China was 591 US dollars/ton (a decrease of 9 US dollars/ton), and butane was 581 US dollars/ton (a decrease of 9 US dollars/ton). In RMB terms, propane was 4592 yuan/ton (a decrease of 70 yuan/ton), and butane was 4515 yuan/ton (a decrease of 69 yuan/ton). In South China, the CIF price of frozen propane was 584 US dollars/ton (a decrease of 10 US dollars/ton), and butane was 574 US dollars/ton (a decrease of 10 US dollars/ton). In RMB terms, propane was 4538 yuan/ton (a decrease of 77 yuan/ton), and butane was 4460 yuan/ton (a decrease of 77 yuan/ton) [1] - Although there has been a short - term tightening in the international market, the medium - term supply - demand pattern of LPG has not reversed. Supply from the Middle East and North America will continue to grow, while downstream chemical demand lacks growth momentum due to profit constraints, and the market will remain oversupplied [1] Strategy - Unilateral: Neutral, short - term wait - and - see [2] - Inter - period: No strategy provided [2] - Cross - variety: No strategy provided [2] - Futures - spot: No strategy provided [2] - Options: No strategy provided [2]

Group 1 - The domestic futures market for energy and chemicals showed mixed results, with liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) futures experiencing a price increase of approximately 1.71%, reaching a high of 4232.00 yuan/ton [1] - The Dalian Commodity Exchange recorded 5476 LPG futures warehouse receipts, remaining stable compared to the previous trading day, with a weekly increase of 865 receipts, representing an 18.76% growth [2] - The overall supply-demand balance for LPG remains unchanged in the medium term, with supply from the Middle East and North America expected to continue increasing, while downstream chemical demand is constrained by insufficient profit growth [2] Group 2 - Recent strong performance in the external market, particularly for near-month contracts, is attributed to increased burning demand in the Northern Hemisphere and tight supply from the Middle East [3] - Domestic fundamentals are relatively healthy, with stronger-than-expected chemical demand and low refinery inventories providing price support [3] - The current LPG market is experiencing a divergence from its fundamental conditions, indicating potential risks and suggesting cautious participation [3]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral, with a short - term focus on waiting and observing; no specific strategies for cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, or options [2] 2) Core View - In the context of weak crude oil prices, the LPG outer market is relatively strong. The rise in propane raw material import costs has pressured the profits of domestic PDH plants. Although the operating rate has rebounded to around 72% this week as previously shut - down plants resume operation, elastic demand is suppressed, and the commissioning schedule of new plants may be postponed. In the medium term, the overall supply - demand pattern of LPG has not reversed, with supply from the Middle East and North America continuing to grow, and downstream chemical demand lacking profit - driven growth momentum. The market will remain in a state of oversupply. Therefore, the LPG futures price has short - term support but limited upward momentum and will face pressure again after supply recovers [1] 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - On December 11, regional prices were as follows: Shandong market, 4320 - 4420 yuan/ton; Northeast market, 4160 - 4210 yuan/ton; North China market, 4250 - 4400 yuan/ton; East China market, 4320 - 4405 yuan/ton; Yangtze River market, 4550 - 4890 yuan/ton; Northwest market, 4300 - 4430 yuan/ton; South China market, 4340 - 4500 yuan/ton [1] - In the first half of January 2026, the CIF price of frozen propane in East China, China, was 609 US dollars/ton, up 7 US dollars/ton, and butane was 599 US dollars/ton, up 7 US dollars/ton, equivalent to 4739 yuan/ton for propane and 4661 yuan/ton for butane, up 50 yuan/ton. In South China, the CIF price of frozen propane was 603 US dollars/ton, up 7 US dollars/ton, and butane was 593 US dollars/ton, up 7 US dollars/ton, equivalent to 4692 yuan/ton for propane and 4615 yuan/ton for butane, up 50 and 51 yuan/ton respectively [1] Figures - The report includes figures on the spot prices of civil LPG in Shandong, East China, South China, North China, Northeast, and the Yangtze River regions; spot prices of ether - post C4 in Shandong, East China, North China, Northeast, the Yangtze River, and Northwest regions; and relevant closing prices, price differences, and trading volume data of PG futures contracts [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; Inter - period: None; Inter - variety: None; Futures - spot: None; Options: None [2] Core View of the Report - PG's futures price significantly retraced after reaching 4,500 yuan/ton, reflecting that the supply - demand pattern of LPG has not substantially reversed, and overseas supply remains abundant. The LPG shipment volume from the Middle East increased significantly in September. Although there is significant resistance above the market, the basis strengthened again after consecutive retracements, and the futures price is relatively low, so the downside space is expected to be limited [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - On September 23, the regional prices were as follows: Shandong market 4,510 - 4,570 yuan/ton; Northeast market 3,970 - 4,330 yuan/ton; North China market 4,350 - 4,650 yuan/ton; East China market 4,300 - 4,550 yuan/ton; Yangtze River region market 4,460 - 4,750 yuan/ton; Northwest market 4,500 - 4,605 yuan/ton; South China market 4,498 - 4,750 yuan/ton [1] - In the second half of October 2025, the CIF prices of frozen propane and butane in East China were 598 dollars/ton and 585 dollars/ton respectively, both up 1 dollar/ton, equivalent to 4,678 yuan/ton and 4,576 yuan/ton in RMB, up 5 yuan/ton and 4 yuan/ton respectively. In South China, the CIF prices of frozen propane and butane were 591 dollars/ton and 578 dollars/ton respectively, both up 1 dollar/ton, equivalent to 4,623 yuan/ton and 4,522 yuan/ton in RMB, up 4 yuan/ton and 5 yuan/ton respectively [1] - The LPG shipment volume from the Middle East in September is expected to be 5.16 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.16 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 1.37 million tons [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall supply - demand pattern of LPG remains loose, and the market is operating weakly. There are some marginal benefits recently, but they are not enough to reverse the atmosphere. The external market price fell again yesterday. The overall market production and sales are moderate, with downstream demand mainly for rigid needs [1]. - Overseas supply remains abundant, and the domestic commercial volume has decreased slightly but still remains abundant. In terms of demand, the demand at the combustion end is continuously weak under the background of summer high temperatures, and downstream purchases are mainly for rigid needs. Meanwhile, the demand at the chemical end has improved marginally, and the PDH operating rate has risen to the high - level range this year, but the power for further strengthening in the future is limited [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - On August 19, the regional prices were as follows: Shandong market 4420 - 4500 yuan; Northeast market 3900 - 4110 yuan; North China market 4280 - 4620 yuan; East China market 4280 - 4480 yuan; Yangtze River market 4480 - 4700 yuan; Northwest market 4200 - 4300 yuan; South China market 4428 - 4580 yuan [1]. - In the second half of September 2025, the CIF price of frozen propane in East China, China, was 568 US dollars/ton, down 4 US dollars/ton, and butane was 545 US dollars/ton, down 4 US dollars/ton. The RMB price of propane was 4462 yuan/ton, down 29 yuan/ton, and butane was 4281 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton. In South China, the CIF price of frozen propane was 560 US dollars/ton, down 4 US dollars/ton, and butane was 537 US dollars/ton, down 4 US dollars/ton. The RMB price of propane was 4399 yuan/ton, down 29 yuan/ton, and butane was 4219 yuan/ton, down 29 yuan/ton [1]. - Yesterday, the prices in Shandong, Northwest, and South China regions increased, while the rest remained stable [1]. Strategy - Unilateral: The market is in a shock state. One can pay attention to the short - term rebound opportunities of PG at low levels (avoid the 09 contract considering the issue of warrant cancellation), but the space is limited. There are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options [2].

Core Viewpoints - PDH unit profits are continuously recovering, the operating load is rising, and the chemical demand for propane provides short - term support for prices [2] - The external release volume of domestic refineries decreases seasonally, and the recovery pace of arrivals is slow, so the supply of domestic gas tends to be stable [2] - Propane inventories in North America are higher than the same period last year, entering the inventory accumulation cycle, and combined with increased sales in the Middle East, it suppresses the international market [2] - The peak combustion season is approaching the end, the terminal demand is weakly declining, and the spot price continues to decline slightly [2] - LPG maintains a pattern of weak supply and demand. Overseas inventory accumulation and seasonal weakening of demand suppress the market, but the recovery of PDH demand provides bottom - line support, and it will fluctuate weakly in the short term [3] Data Indicators (Showing Multiple Data Trends) - Propane Far - East CIF price FEI: M1 settlement price (daily), FEI and Brent ratio (daily) seasonality, PDH profit/operating rate, FEI/Brent ratio and PDH profit [4] - FEI/MOPJ spread (daily) seasonality, propane Far - East CIF price FEI M1 - M2 (daily) seasonality [8] - FEI discount, Middle - East FOB discount (daily) [9][10] - Propane US FOB price: M1 settlement price (daily), MB and WTI ratio (daily) seasonality [11] - CP M1 - MB M1 [12] - VLGC freight [14] - US propane weekly production, propane imports from the US (weekly) seasonality, propane inventory in the US (weekly) seasonality, propane exports from the US (weekly) seasonality [16][18][19]