液化石油气日报 | 2025-12-19 外盘价格回调，盘面区间震荡运行 1、\t12月18日地区价格：山东市场，4300-4410；东北市场，4190-4300；华北市场，4300-4350；华东市场，4320-4405； 沿江市场，4550-4960；西北市场，4080-4380；华南市场，4440-4580。（数据来源：卓创资讯） 2、\t2026年1月下半月中国华东冷冻货到岸价格丙烷591美元/吨，跌9美元/吨，丁烷581美元/吨，跌9美元/吨，折合 人民币价格丙烷4592元/吨，跌70元/吨，丁烷4515元/吨，跌69元/吨。（数据来源：卓创资讯） 3、\t2026年1月下半月中国华南冷冻货到岸价格丙烷584美元/吨，跌10美元/吨，丁烷574美元/吨，跌10美元/吨，折 合人民币价格丙烷4538元/吨，跌77元/吨，丁烷4460元/吨，跌77元/吨。（数据来源：卓创资讯） 昨日外盘LPG价格出现回落，盘面则维持区间震荡运行。现货方面，昨日山东民用液化气主流成交价格出现下跌， 但随着持续降价，下游采买热情提升，厂家出货好转。当地醚后碳四则出现上涨，因原油价格上涨以及个别低价 无量停销，推动市场价格上 ...

12月16日，国内期市能化板块涨跌不一。其中，液化石油气期货主力合约开盘报4180.00元/吨，今日盘 中高位震荡运行；截至发稿，液化石油气主力最高触及4232.00元，下方探低2474元，涨幅达1.71%附 近。 美国政府文件显示，美国要求欧盟在2035年前免除美国天然气在甲烷法中的义务。 后市来看，液化石油气期货行情将如何运行，相关机构观点汇总如下： 华泰期货指出，昨日外盘丙丁烷掉期价格回落，但近期整体表现强于内盘，到岸成本受到一定支撑。现 货方面，山东区域小幅下跌，其余区域维稳为主，整体成交尚可，卖方库存无忧。近期随着丙烷原料进 口成本上涨，国内PDH装置利润承压，弹性需求受到抑制，未来新装置的投产进度也可能延后。整体来 看，虽然国际市场出现阶段性收紧，但中期LPG整体供需格局并未逆转，中东与北美供应将延续增长态 势，而下游化工需求受制于利润增长动力不足，市场整体将延续供过于求的状态。因此，LPG盘面短期 存在一定支撑，但上行驱动有限，未来供应恢复后将再度面临压力。此外，仓单与交割层面的博弈将对 PG盘面造成额外波动，需要保持谨慎。 新湖期货表示，近期外盘表现强势，尤其是近月合约，月差走强，除了北半球燃 ...

液化石油气日报 | 2025-12-12 进口成本抬升，PDH装置利润持续承压 市场分析 1、\t12月11日地区价格：山东市场，4320-4420；东北市场，4160-4210；华北市场，4250-4400；华东市场，4320-4405； 沿江市场，4550-4890；西北市场，4300-4430；华南市场，4340-4500。（数据来源：卓创资讯） 2、\t2026年1月上半月中国华东冷冻货到岸价格丙烷609美元/吨，涨7美元/吨，丁烷599美元/吨，涨7美元/吨，折合 人民币价格丙烷4739元/吨，涨50元/吨，丁烷4661元/吨，涨50元/吨。（数据来源：卓创资讯） 3、\t2026年1月上半月中国华南冷冻货到岸价格丙烷603美元/吨，涨7美元/吨，丁烷593美元/吨，涨7美元/吨，折合 人民币价格丙烷4692元/吨，涨50元/吨，丁烷4615元/吨，涨51元/吨。（数据来源：卓创资讯） 在原油端弱势运行的背景下，LPG外盘表现相对坚挺，昨日掉期价格继续上涨，叠加高贴水抬升到岸成本。但随 着丙烷原料进口成本上涨，国内PDH装置利润承压。虽然随着前期检修装置恢复，本周开工率回升至72%左右，但 弹性需求 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; Inter - period: None; Inter - variety: None; Futures - spot: None; Options: None [2] Core View of the Report - PG's futures price significantly retraced after reaching 4,500 yuan/ton, reflecting that the supply - demand pattern of LPG has not substantially reversed, and overseas supply remains abundant. The LPG shipment volume from the Middle East increased significantly in September. Although there is significant resistance above the market, the basis strengthened again after consecutive retracements, and the futures price is relatively low, so the downside space is expected to be limited [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - On September 23, the regional prices were as follows: Shandong market 4,510 - 4,570 yuan/ton; Northeast market 3,970 - 4,330 yuan/ton; North China market 4,350 - 4,650 yuan/ton; East China market 4,300 - 4,550 yuan/ton; Yangtze River region market 4,460 - 4,750 yuan/ton; Northwest market 4,500 - 4,605 yuan/ton; South China market 4,498 - 4,750 yuan/ton [1] - In the second half of October 2025, the CIF prices of frozen propane and butane in East China were 598 dollars/ton and 585 dollars/ton respectively, both up 1 dollar/ton, equivalent to 4,678 yuan/ton and 4,576 yuan/ton in RMB, up 5 yuan/ton and 4 yuan/ton respectively. In South China, the CIF prices of frozen propane and butane were 591 dollars/ton and 578 dollars/ton respectively, both up 1 dollar/ton, equivalent to 4,623 yuan/ton and 4,522 yuan/ton in RMB, up 4 yuan/ton and 5 yuan/ton respectively [1] - The LPG shipment volume from the Middle East in September is expected to be 5.16 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.16 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 1.37 million tons [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall supply - demand pattern of LPG remains loose, and the market is operating weakly. There are some marginal benefits recently, but they are not enough to reverse the atmosphere. The external market price fell again yesterday. The overall market production and sales are moderate, with downstream demand mainly for rigid needs [1]. - Overseas supply remains abundant, and the domestic commercial volume has decreased slightly but still remains abundant. In terms of demand, the demand at the combustion end is continuously weak under the background of summer high temperatures, and downstream purchases are mainly for rigid needs. Meanwhile, the demand at the chemical end has improved marginally, and the PDH operating rate has risen to the high - level range this year, but the power for further strengthening in the future is limited [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - On August 19, the regional prices were as follows: Shandong market 4420 - 4500 yuan; Northeast market 3900 - 4110 yuan; North China market 4280 - 4620 yuan; East China market 4280 - 4480 yuan; Yangtze River market 4480 - 4700 yuan; Northwest market 4200 - 4300 yuan; South China market 4428 - 4580 yuan [1]. - In the second half of September 2025, the CIF price of frozen propane in East China, China, was 568 US dollars/ton, down 4 US dollars/ton, and butane was 545 US dollars/ton, down 4 US dollars/ton. The RMB price of propane was 4462 yuan/ton, down 29 yuan/ton, and butane was 4281 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton. In South China, the CIF price of frozen propane was 560 US dollars/ton, down 4 US dollars/ton, and butane was 537 US dollars/ton, down 4 US dollars/ton. The RMB price of propane was 4399 yuan/ton, down 29 yuan/ton, and butane was 4219 yuan/ton, down 29 yuan/ton [1]. - Yesterday, the prices in Shandong, Northwest, and South China regions increased, while the rest remained stable [1]. Strategy - Unilateral: The market is in a shock state. One can pay attention to the short - term rebound opportunities of PG at low levels (avoid the 09 contract considering the issue of warrant cancellation), but the space is limited. There are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options [2].

Core Viewpoints - PDH unit profits are continuously recovering, the operating load is rising, and the chemical demand for propane provides short - term support for prices [2] - The external release volume of domestic refineries decreases seasonally, and the recovery pace of arrivals is slow, so the supply of domestic gas tends to be stable [2] - Propane inventories in North America are higher than the same period last year, entering the inventory accumulation cycle, and combined with increased sales in the Middle East, it suppresses the international market [2] - The peak combustion season is approaching the end, the terminal demand is weakly declining, and the spot price continues to decline slightly [2] - LPG maintains a pattern of weak supply and demand. Overseas inventory accumulation and seasonal weakening of demand suppress the market, but the recovery of PDH demand provides bottom - line support, and it will fluctuate weakly in the short term [3] Data Indicators (Showing Multiple Data Trends) - Propane Far - East CIF price FEI: M1 settlement price (daily), FEI and Brent ratio (daily) seasonality, PDH profit/operating rate, FEI/Brent ratio and PDH profit [4] - FEI/MOPJ spread (daily) seasonality, propane Far - East CIF price FEI M1 - M2 (daily) seasonality [8] - FEI discount, Middle - East FOB discount (daily) [9][10] - Propane US FOB price: M1 settlement price (daily), MB and WTI ratio (daily) seasonality [11] - CP M1 - MB M1 [12] - VLGC freight [14] - US propane weekly production, propane imports from the US (weekly) seasonality, propane inventory in the US (weekly) seasonality, propane exports from the US (weekly) seasonality [16][18][19]