LPG市场分析
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液化石油气日报:产销温和,下游刚需为主-20250820
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-08-20 05:16
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall supply - demand pattern of LPG remains loose, and the market is operating weakly. There are some marginal benefits recently, but they are not enough to reverse the atmosphere. The external market price fell again yesterday. The overall market production and sales are moderate, with downstream demand mainly for rigid needs [1]. - Overseas supply remains abundant, and the domestic commercial volume has decreased slightly but still remains abundant. In terms of demand, the demand at the combustion end is continuously weak under the background of summer high temperatures, and downstream purchases are mainly for rigid needs. Meanwhile, the demand at the chemical end has improved marginally, and the PDH operating rate has risen to the high - level range this year, but the power for further strengthening in the future is limited [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - On August 19, the regional prices were as follows: Shandong market 4420 - 4500 yuan; Northeast market 3900 - 4110 yuan; North China market 4280 - 4620 yuan; East China market 4280 - 4480 yuan; Yangtze River market 4480 - 4700 yuan; Northwest market 4200 - 4300 yuan; South China market 4428 - 4580 yuan [1]. - In the second half of September 2025, the CIF price of frozen propane in East China, China, was 568 US dollars/ton, down 4 US dollars/ton, and butane was 545 US dollars/ton, down 4 US dollars/ton. The RMB price of propane was 4462 yuan/ton, down 29 yuan/ton, and butane was 4281 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton. In South China, the CIF price of frozen propane was 560 US dollars/ton, down 4 US dollars/ton, and butane was 537 US dollars/ton, down 4 US dollars/ton. The RMB price of propane was 4399 yuan/ton, down 29 yuan/ton, and butane was 4219 yuan/ton, down 29 yuan/ton [1]. - Yesterday, the prices in Shandong, Northwest, and South China regions increased, while the rest remained stable [1]. Strategy - Unilateral: The market is in a shock state. One can pay attention to the short - term rebound opportunities of PG at low levels (avoid the 09 contract considering the issue of warrant cancellation), but the space is limited. There are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options [2].
LPG早报-20250616
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-06-16 02:22
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View The fundamentals of the LPG market are marginally improving but still under pressure, with significant geopolitical risks, and cautious operation is recommended [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Market Price Data - From 2025/06/09 to 2025/06/13, prices of South China LPG, East China LPG, Shandong LPG, propane CFR South China, etc. showed various changes. For example, South China LPG increased from 4570 to 4640, with a daily change of +10; propane CFR South China increased from 596 to 615, with a daily change of +20 [1]. - In the civil gas segment, prices in Shandong increased by 30 to 4650, in East China by 111 to 4603, and in South China by 80 to 4710; ether - post - carbon four increased by 120 to 4950; the cheapest deliverable was East China civil gas at 4492 [1]. Profit and Spread - PDH production profit deteriorated, FEI production profit was lower than CP; alkylation oil profitability decreased significantly; MTBE gas - fractionation etherification profit increased, while isomerization etherification profit decreased; FEI - MOPJ and naphtha crack spreads declined [1]. - PG 07 contract basis changed from - 130 to 221; 07 - 09 monthly spread changed from - 6 to 195; PG - CP reached 18 US dollars (+27), FEI - CP reached - 19 (+31) [1]. Fundamentals - Port inventory and factory inventory both decreased. Arrivals and out - shipments declined, with expected subsequent increase in out - shipments and decrease in arrivals [1]. - Chemical demand improved overall. PDH operating rate increased to 64.3%, alkylation operating rate increased to 48.18%, and MTBE production also increased significantly [1]. Other Information - As temperatures rise, combustion demand is expected to decline [1]. - The number of registered warehouse receipts was 9005 lots (-335) [1].