近日有市场人士预测，2026年美国与中东地区液化石油气(LPG)供应预计增长，叠加下游石化需求疲 软，将对LPG价格形成压制。标普全球能源旗下普氏资讯的数据显示，2025年亚洲丙烷到岸价(CFR东 北亚)均价为547.92美元/吨，较2024年的628.23美元/吨同比大幅下滑。 标准普尔全球能源剑桥能源研究协会(CERA)天然气凝析液(NGLs)副总监埃德加·翁在2025年12月11日表 示："当前LPG市场已完全由买方主导，2026年市场供需格局有望较2025年更为平衡。"他同时警 示："若供需能如预期同步增长，市场自然向好。但如果亚洲需求崩塌，例如套利窗口关闭、贸易壁垒 高悬、石化行业复苏乏力，则可能出现买方拒绝接货或取消出口订单的情况，LPG市场走势仍将充满变 数。理论上，需求疲软会拉低价格。" 卖方方面，沙特、美国供应双双增长，使LPG市场压力加剧，尤其是亚洲。亚洲LPG贸易商、采购商和 分析师们表示，2026年LPG市场新增供应将主要来自沙特阿拉伯贾夫拉气田投产，以及美国LPG出口终 端扩能。随着沙特最大的非常规非伴生气田贾夫拉气田投产，2026年LPG供应预计将增长。沙特财政部 2025年12月 ...

Industry Investment Rating - The unilateral strategy is to be weak with oscillations, and there are no specific strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [2] Core View - Although the recent crude oil price is strong, it has limited impact on the LPG market. The LPG prices at home and abroad are relatively flat, and the market driving force is weak. The overall supply - demand pattern of LPG remains relatively loose, especially with abundant overseas supply. The global LPG market will remain in a state of oversupply [1] Market Analysis - On July 15th, the regional prices were as follows: Shandong market 4570 - 4630 yuan/ton; Northeast market 4190 - 4380 yuan/ton; North China market 4425 - 4630 yuan/ton; East China market 4380 - 4650 yuan/ton; Yangtze River market 4520 - 4610 yuan/ton; Northwest market 3900 - 4250 yuan/ton; South China market 4570 - 4700 yuan/ton [1] - In the first half of August 2025, the CIF prices of frozen LPG in East China were 572 dollars/ton for propane (up 5 dollars/ton) and 553 dollars/ton for butane (up 6 dollars/ton), equivalent to 4502 yuan/ton for propane (up 42 yuan/ton) and 4353 yuan/ton for butane (up 50 yuan/ton) in RMB. In South China, the CIF prices were 569 dollars/ton for propane (up 2 dollars/ton) and 550 dollars/ton for butane (up 3 dollars/ton), equivalent to 4479 yuan/ton for propane (up 19 yuan/ton) and 4329 yuan/ton for butane (up 26 yuan/ton) in RMB [1] - US LPG exports remain at a high level. Based on shipping schedule data, the shipment volume in July is expected to be 6.12 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 480,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 810,000 tons. After the expansion projects of export terminals are put into operation, the constraints on US LPG exports in the second half of the year will disappear, and the growth space will be further opened, which will suppress the prices in regions such as FEI [1] Graph Information - There are various graphs showing the spot prices of civil LPG and ether - after carbon four in different regions, as well as the closing prices, month - on - month spreads, trading volumes, and open interests of PG futures contracts [3]