1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints - The current core contradiction affecting LPG price trends includes the volatile crude oil market on the cost - side, with geopolitical factors dominating in the short - term. The outer - market propane is oscillating, and the domestic fundamentals are relatively stable compared to last week but with significant price fluctuations due to the US - Iran situation. The market is expected to be in an oscillating state, and attention should be paid to the risks above [1][2][19]. - In the long - term, the supply is expected to be resilient next year, while the demand growth in China and India, the main growth engines of Asian LPG demand, is expected to slow down [14]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Core Contradiction and Strategy Suggestion 3.1.1 Core Contradiction - Cost - side: The crude oil market is oscillating. In the medium - to - long - term, it is affected by both supply surplus and geopolitical factors, with geopolitics being dominant in the short - term. The US - Iran situation has caused the oil price to fluctuate this week [1]. - Outer - market propane: It is oscillating. The shipping volume in the Middle East is neutral, and the arrival premium is still high. In the US, supply has declined due to the cold wave, and inventory is in a destocking state [1]. - Domestic fundamentals: The supply remains low, the arrival volume is not high, and the port inventory has slightly increased. The demand is weak due to the maintenance of PDH devices. The market is affected by the US - Iran situation, and if the situation escalates, it will have a significant impact on the supply side [2]. 3.1.2 Trading Strategy Suggestion - **Market Positioning**: The market is in an oscillating state, and the price range of PG03 is 3800 - 4500 [19]. - **Basis Strategy**: Wait and see, as the market is volatile due to geopolitical uncertainties [19]. - **Calendar Spread Strategy**: Go for a reverse spread at high prices. The 03 contract is the forced cancellation month, and the short - term warehouse receipt volume is not large [20]. - **Hedging Arbitrage Strategy**: Pay attention to the opportunities of internal - external price differences [20]. 3.1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Suggestion - **LPG Price Range Forecast**: The price range of LPG is 3800 - 4500, the current volatility (20 - day rolling) is 25.84%, and the historical percentage of the current volatility (3 - year) is 53.65% [21]. - **Hedging Strategy**: For inventory management, when the inventory is high, short PG futures to lock in profits. For procurement management, when the procurement inventory is low, buy PG futures at low prices to lock in procurement costs [21][23]. 3.2 This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Attention Events 3.2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Negative Information**: PDH has been in maintenance this week, with an operating rate of about 62%. Many devices such as Jinneng, Juzhengyuan, and Zhongjing are in maintenance [23]. 3.2.2 Next Week's Important Events - February 10: US January New York Fed 1 - year inflation expectation. - February 11: China CPI/PPI; US January unemployment rate. - February 13: US January seasonally adjusted CPI [29]. 3.3 Disk Interpretation 3.3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - **Domestic Market**: The PG03 contract oscillated this week. The net position of the main profitable seats increased, and there were no obvious changes in the top 5 long and short positions in the dragon - tiger list. The net short position of the profitable seats decreased slightly, the net long position of foreign capital increased slightly, and the net long position of retail investors decreased slightly. Technically, it is still advisable to go long at low prices [25]. - **Foreign Market**: FEI M1 closed at 545.5 US dollars/ton (- 27.68), with a premium of 53.5 US dollars/ton; CP M1 closed at 535 US dollars/ton (- 10), with a CP premium of - 15 US dollars/ton; MB M1 closed at 339 US dollars/ton (+ 7.59). Affected by the US - Iran negotiation plan, the outer - market propane gave back some risk premiums [33]. 3.3.2 Basis and Calendar Spread Structure - The LPG inter - month structure is still in a BACK structure, and the 3 - 4 month spread closed at - 303 yuan/ton [31]. - This week, FEI M1 - M2 was 28.02 US dollars/ton; CP M1 - M2 was 13.5 US dollars/ton; MB M1 - M2 was 2.6 US dollars/ton. The calendar spreads of CP and MB fluctuated greatly, and the near - month of CP gave back some geopolitical premiums, and the calendar spread weakened [42]. 3.4 Valuation and Profit Analysis 3.4.1 Industrial Chain Upstream and Downstream Profit Tracking - **Upstream Profit**: This week, the gross profit of major refineries was 771 yuan/ton (+ 111), and the gross profit of Shandong local refineries was 143 yuan/ton (- 23). The profit of local refineries continued to shrink [48]. - **Downstream Profit**: The PDH profit with FEI as the cost was - 443 yuan/ton, and the PDH profit with CP as the cost was - 192 yuan/ton, still in a loss state. The MTBE gas - fractionation profit was - 19.75 yuan/ton, the isomerization profit was 175 yuan/ton, and the alkylated oil profit was - 99.4 yuan/ton, with the profits of MTBE and alkylated oil strengthening [50]. 3.4.2 Import and Export Profit Tracking This week, the import profit was oscillating, mainly due to the large fluctuations in outer - market prices [53]. 3.5 Supply, Demand, and Inventory 3.5.1 Overseas Supply and Demand - **US Supply and Demand**: This period, production decreased due to weather, demand changed little, exports increased slightly, and inventory destocked faster with the decline in production, but the overall inventory level was still high [60]. - **Middle East Supply**: In 2025, the Middle East exported 48463 KT of LPG, a year - on - year increase of 2.43%. In January 2026, it exported 4043 KT, a year - on - year decrease of 0.41%. The shipping volume in recent weeks has been low [69]. - **India Supply and Demand**: From January to December, India's LPG demand was 331774 KT, a year - on - year increase of 6.67%. In 2025, LPG imports were 23229 KT, a year - on - year increase of 8.12%. In January 2026, imports were 2204 KT, a year - on - year increase of 23.68% [72]. - **South Korea Supply and Demand**: South Korea's LPG demand has no obvious seasonality. In 2025, it imported 8434 KT of LPG, a year - on - year decrease of 2.56%. In January 2026, it imported 762 KT, a year - on - year increase of 13.32%. Since the fourth quarter, the cracking economy of LPG relative to naphtha has not been good [80]. - **Japan Supply and Demand**: Japan is highly dependent on imported LPG, and its demand and imports have obvious seasonality. In January 2026, Japan imported 1004 KT of LPG, a year - on - year decrease of 4.78%, and its LPG inventory was at a new low year - on - year [83]. 3.5.2 Domestic Supply and Demand - **Domestic Supply - Demand Balance**: Supply is expected to remain high, but the external sales volume is not high. Import volume is not high. Demand shows a decrease in chemical demand and an increase in combustion demand. In the first quarter, chemical demand weakens marginally due to PDH maintenance. Inventory is destocking, mainly at the port [86]. - **Domestic Supply**: The operating rate of major refineries is 81.81% (+ 1.79%); the operating rate of independent refineries is 51.68% (- 1.92%), and the utilization rate excluding large refineries is 47.28% (- 2.14%). The domestic LPG external sales volume is 54.88 tons (+ 0.51), and the arrival volume is 50.8 tons (+ 1.3). The factory inventory rate is 24.21% (- 0.39%), and the port inventory is 201.8 tons (+ 14.2) [89]. - **Domestic Demand**: - **PDH Demand**: Devices such as Jinneng, Zhongjing, and Juzhengyuan are in maintenance [100]. - **MTBE Demand**: There were no device changes this week, and the internal - external price difference was oscillating [104]. - **Alkylated Oil Demand**: Jingmen Yuchu was in maintenance until the end of January, and Puyang Zhongwei was newly in maintenance [112]. - **Combustion Demand**: There is no specific data, but the report mentions that combustion demand increases [86].