Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report The LPG market shows a pattern of increasing supply and weakening demand, with the spot price center shifting downward. The PG futures market rebounds due to the improvement in the international spot market and the low valuation of the futures. It is expected to continue the weak and volatile consolidation trend [1]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Market Data - **Spot Prices**: From August 15 to August 21, 2025, the prices of South China LPG remained at 4520, East China LPG increased from 4410 to 4398, and Shandong LPG rose from 4420 to 4500. The CFR South price of propane increased from 563 to 573, and the CIF Japan price of propane rose from 527 to 540 [1]. - **Daily Changes**: On August 21, compared with the previous day, the prices of South China LPG remained unchanged, East China LPG increased by 8, Shandong LPG increased by 20, the CFR South price of propane increased by 8, and the CIF Japan price of propane increased by 4 [1]. - **Futures Market**: The PG futures market shows a small rebound. The basis strengthened to 105 (-31), and the 09 - 10 spread was -493 (-29). The cheapest deliverable was East China civil gas at 4398 on Thursday [1]. Weekly View - **Market Conditions**: The international market is volatile, with freight rates generally in a high - level volatile state. The waiting time at the Panama Canal for VLGCs has decreased. The FEI and CP have increased, and the production profit of PP made from FEI and CP has weakened [1]. - **Fundamentals**: The unloading volume has decreased, chemical demand has slightly increased, and port inventories have decreased by 2.06%. Refinery commodity volume has decreased by 1.68%. Factory inventories have increased by 0.07%. The PDH operating rate is 76.33% (+2.49pct), and the combustion demand is still weak but gradually coming to an end [1].

| | LPG早报 | | | | | | | | 研究中心能化团队 2025/08/21 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | L P G | | | | | | | | | | | | | 日期 | 丙烷CFR华 丙烷CIF日 MB丙烷现 CP预测合 华南液化气 山东液化气 山东醚后碳四 山东烷基化油 主力基差 | 华东液化 | | | | | | | | 纸面进口 | | | | | 气 | | 南 | 本 | 货 | 同价 | | | 利润 | | | 2025/08/1 4 | 4365 | 4401 | 4420 | 565 | 535 | 69 | 521 | 4920 | 7810 | -302 | 507 | | 2025/08/1 5 | 4400 | 4410 | 4420 | 563 | 527 | 66 | 519 | 4930 | 7830 | -253 | 539 | | 2025/08/1 8 | 4450 | 4410 | 4440 | 561 | 5 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoint of the Report - The basis is strong, the futures valuation is low, and there is no fundamental driving force. The overall market is expected to fluctuate mainly [1] Group 3: Summary Based on Relevant Catalogs 1. Price and Data Changes - From August 6 - 12, 2025, the prices of South China LPG, East China LPG, and Shandong LPG showed a downward trend, with the Shandong LPG price dropping by 60 yuan on August 12 compared to the previous day; the propane CFR South China price increased by 5 dollars, and the propane CIF Japan price decreased by 4 dollars. The CP forecast contract price increased by 1 dollar, and the paper import profit decreased by 35 yuan, while the main basis decreased by 27 yuan [1] - On Tuesday, the cheapest deliverable was South China civil LPG at 4360 yuan. FEI and CP increased, PP fluctuated, the production profit of PP made from FEI and CP deteriorated, but the CP production cost was lower than that of FEI. The PG futures strengthened, and the monthly spread decreased, with the latest 09 - 10 spread at - 481 (-7). The US - to - Far - East arbitrage window was closed [1] - The spot price center moved down, with the cheapest deliverable being South China civil LPG at 4380 yuan. The PG futures weakened. The basis strengthened to 606 (+161). The inter - month reverse spread continued to strengthen, with the 9 - 10 monthly spread at 478 (-39). The warrant registration volume was 10179 lots (+420), with Qingdao Yunda decreasing by 35 lots and Wuzhong Dahua increasing by 455 lots [1] - Internationally, the market fundamentals were loose, FEI and CP fluctuated, and MB weakened. The oil - gas price ratio in North Asia and the Middle East decreased, while that in North America increased slightly. The internal - external price difference decreased significantly, with PG - CP at 9.3 (-21) and PG - FEI at - 2.5 (-16). The US - Asia arbitrage window opened. The freight from the US Gulf to Japan was 148 (+16), and that from the Middle East to the Far East was 85 (+11) [1] 2. Weekly Outlook - The waiting time for VLGCs at the Panama Canal increased, possibly due to the peak of container ship arrivals from the previous China - US tariff rush, but it is expected to decrease as the container ship shipments have passed the peak. The FEI - MOPJ spread narrowed significantly to - 38 (+15) [1] - The naphtha crack spread strengthened. The PDH spot profit weakened, while the paper profit continued to improve. The production gross profit of alkylated oil decreased. The MTBE gas - separation etherification gross profit increased slightly, and the isomerization etherification gross profit decreased slightly [1] - Fundamentally, the unloading volume increased, port inventories rose, factory inventories decreased by 0.51%, and the commodity volume increased by 0.57%. The PDH operating rate was 73.84% (+1.21 pct), with Tianjin Bohua resuming operation and Jiangsu Ruiheng restarting, but Binhuausing a fault to stop production for an expected 20 days. Wanda Tianhong is expected to restart next week [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives an "oscillation" rating for LPG, indicating that the expected price fluctuation is within plus or minus one standard deviation [4]. Core View of the Report - The supply pressure of LPG continues, and the cracking spread is running weakly. The internal market commodity sentiment has weakened, and the decline in coal prices has dragged down olefin prices, causing PG to follow suit. The impact of oil prices on the PG market has weakened recently. The pressure of associated gas in the US and the Middle East continues to suppress the overseas market. Although the US propane production has declined slightly, it remains at a high level. The operating rate of domestic refineries has slightly decreased, while the operating rate of major refineries remains at a high level for the same period. The supply pressure is difficult to refute. Overall, the current supply of PG is relatively loose. The price is expected to oscillate, and the cracking spread will run weakly [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs LPG: Weekly View - **Supply**: Domestic major refineries have an operating rate of 81.55% (a month - on - month increase of 0.34%), independent refineries have an operating rate of 56.85% (a month - on - month decrease of 0.35%), the commercial volume of LPG is 52.65 tons (a 0.3% increase), the commercial volume of civil gas is 20.98 tons (a 0.3% decrease), and the arrival volume of LPG is 81 tons (a 65.3% increase). Overseas, the US propane production is 2822 thousand barrels per day (a 1.7% decrease) [4]. - **Demand**: In the domestic market, the price of gasoline in Shandong is 7799 yuan/ton (a 0.3% decrease), the cracking spread of Shandong gasoline against Brent is 10.16 dollars/barrel (a 22.3% decrease). The operating rate of MTBE is 65.89% (a 4.6% decrease), the operating rate of alkylated oil is 46.5614% (a 0.4% increase), and the operating rate of PDH plants is 72.63% (a 0.7% decrease). Overseas, the US propane exports this week are 1629 thousand barrels per day (a 22.2% decrease), and the inventory is 83477 thousand barrels (a 1.4% increase) [4]. - **Valuation**: The price of civil gas in Shandong is 4550 yuan/ton (a 1.5% decrease), and the price of ether - after C4 in Shandong is 4580 yuan/ton (a 3.4% decrease). Brent is at 71.27 dollars/barrel (a 4.1% increase), the CP price is 534.31 dollars/ton (a 1.9% increase), the MB price is 400.7 dollars/ton (a 2.6% increase), and the FEI price is 547.31 dollars/ton (a 2.8% increase) [4]. - **Basis**: The main basis of civil gas in Shandong is 340 yuan/ton (a 3% decrease) [4]. - **Inventory**: The refinery inventory is 18.08 tons (a 1.9% decrease), the port inventory is 313.44 tons (a 3.1% increase), and the storage capacity utilization rate of tertiary LPG stations is 60.33% (a 0.3% decrease) [4]. LPG: Price - Volume Performance - **Futures and Paper - Futures Prices**: As of August 1, the main LPG contract is at 3965 yuan/ton, with a weekly change of - 82 yuan/ton (- 2%); the FEI first - line contract is at 547.31 dollars/ton, with a weekly change of 14.92 dollars/ton (2.8%); the CP first - line contract is at 534.31 dollars/ton, with a weekly change of 9.9 dollars/ton (1.9%); the MB first - line contract is at 379.3 dollars/ton, with a weekly change of 9.5 dollars/ton (2.6%) [8]. - **Cracking Spreads**: The first - line LPG cracking spread is - 209.1701 yuan/barrel, with a weekly change of - 21.5916 yuan/barrel (- 11.5107%). The MB propane first - line cracking spread is - 38.2 dollars/barrel, with a weekly change of - 3 dollars/barrel (- 8.4%); the CP propane first - line cracking spread is - 28.2 dollars/barrel, with a weekly change of - 2 dollars/barrel (- 7.8%); the FEI propane first - line cracking spread is - 27.2 dollars/barrel, with a weekly change of - 1.6 dollars/barrel (- 6.4%); the NWE propane first - line cracking spread is - 33.73 dollars/barrel, with a weekly change of - 2.8 dollars/barrel (- 8.9%) [8][13]. - **Other Spreads**: As of August 1, the PP - 1.2*PG main contract spread is 2340 yuan/ton, with a weekly change of - 24.6 yuan/ton (- 1%); the MOPJ naphtha and Cash Diff cracking spread is - 3.43 dollars/barrel, with a weekly change of 0.1 dollars/barrel (3.1%); the MOPJ naphtha is at 596.25 dollars/ton, and the PN spread is - 48.94 dollars/ton, with a weekly change of - 2.8 dollars/ton (- 6%). The PG - FEI first - line spread is 16.4 yuan/ton, with a weekly change of - 220.8384 yuan/ton (- 93.0746%); the PG - CP first - line spread is 110.2 yuan/ton, with a weekly change of - 184.2971 yuan/ton (- 62.5759%) [19][28]. - **Freight and Related Data**: As of July 31, the freight from the Middle East to Japan is 85 dollars/ton, with a weekly change of 0.3 dollars/ton (0.4%); the freight from the US Gulf to Flushing is 76.5 dollars/ton, with a weekly change of - 1.5 dollars/ton (- 1.9%); the freight from the US Gulf to Japan is 137.667 dollars/ton, with a weekly change of - 3.4 dollars/ton (- 2.4%). The Panama water level is 86.3 feet, with a weekly change of - 0.1 feet (- 0.1%). The number of ships waiting to pass through the Panama Neopanamax lock is 25, with a weekly increase of 3 (13.6%); the number of ships waiting to pass through the Panamax Plus lock is 41, with a weekly increase of 13 (46.4%); the total is 66, with a weekly increase of 16 (32%) [31]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: As of the week of August 1, the registered warehouse receipts of Chinese LPG futures are 48975 lots, with a change of 955 lots (1.9888%) from last week. In July, the delivery volume of Chinese LPG futures is 1783 lots, with a change of + 1391 lots (+ 354.85%) from last month [34]. LPG: Supply - Demand Progress - **Supply**: In the week of July 1, the commercial volume of civil gas is 20.98 tons, a decrease of 0.06 tons (- 0.29%) from last week. The commercial volume of Chinese LPG is 52.65 tons, an increase of 0.16 tons (+ 0.3%) from last week. The weekly arrival volume of LPG is 81 tons, an increase of 32 tons (+ 65.31%) from last week [40]. - **Demand**: - **MTBE**: As of August 1, the MTBE market price is 5040 yuan/ton, with a weekly change of - 35 yuan/ton (- 0.7%); the MTBE plant profit is - 94 yuan/ton, with a weekly change of 2.3 yuan/ton (2.3%); the MTBE plant operating rate is 65.89%, with a weekly change of - 3.2% (- 4.63%) [44]. - **Alkylated Oil**: As of August 1, the alkylated oil market price is 7899 yuan/ton, with a weekly change of - 37 yuan/ton (- 0.5%); the alkylated oil plant profit is - 3.5 yuan/ton, with a weekly change of - 17 yuan/ton (- 125.93%); the alkylated oil plant operating rate is 46.5614%, with a weekly change of + 0.2% (+ 0.43%) [48]. - **PDH**: As of August 1, the MTO - made propylene profit is - 737.6 yuan/ton, a change of - 157.8 yuan/ton (+ 27.22%) from last week; the naphtha - made propylene profit is - 86.6 dollars/ton, a change of - 15.2 dollars/ton (+ 21.29%) from last week; the PDH - made propylene profit is - 454.6 yuan/ton, a change of - 9.6 yuan/ton (+ 2.16%) from last week. The PDH plant operating rate is 72.63%, with a change of - 0.5% (- 0.68%) from last week [55]. - **Inventory**: - **Refinery Inventory**: As of August 1, the Chinese refinery inventory is 18.08 tons, a decrease of 0.35 tons (- 1.9%) from last week. The Shandong refinery inventory is 1.6 tons, an increase of 0.07 tons (+ 4.58%) from last week; the East China refinery inventory is 2.63 tons, a decrease of 0.39 tons (- 12.91%) from last week; the South China refinery inventory is 2.58 tons, an increase of 0.01 tons (+ 0.39%) from last week [59]. - **Port Inventory**: The port inventory remains at a high level [61]. - **Downstream Storage Capacity Utilization Rate**: The downstream storage capacity utilization rate shows differentiation but remains relatively stable overall [64]. - **US Situation**: As of July 25, the US propane inventory is 83477 thousand barrels, an increase of 1150 thousand barrels (+ 1.4%) from last week; the US propane production is 2822 thousand barrels, a decrease of 49 thousand barrels (- 1.71%) from last week; the US propane exports are 1629 thousand barrels, a decrease of 466 thousand barrels (- 22.24%) from last week; the 4 - week average of US implied demand is 875 thousand barrels per day, an increase of 130 thousand barrels per day (+ 17.45%) from last week [69]. - **Monthly Data**: In July, the monthly production of Chinese LPG is 440 tons (a year - on - year decrease of 1.7199%), and from January to July 2025, the cumulative production of Chinese LPG is 3065.2 tons (a year - on - year decrease of 2.6271%). In June, the monthly import volume of Chinese LPG is 267.4 tons (a year - on - year decrease of 21.1%), and from January to June 2025, the cumulative import volume of Chinese LPG is 1767 tons (a year - on - year increase of 1.5%). In June, the monthly export volume of Chinese LPG is 8.8 tons (a year - on - year decrease of 23.2%), and from January to June 2025, the cumulative export volume of Chinese LPG is 54.5 tons (a year - on - year increase of 5.8%). In June, the monthly apparent demand for Chinese LPG is 694.5 tons (a year - on - year decrease of 11.5%), and from January to June 2025, the cumulative apparent demand for Chinese LPG is 4337.6 tons (a year - on - year decrease of 1.2%) [71].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2) Core View of the Report - The domestic LPG market is expected to continue its weak and volatile trend due to increased short - term domestic chemical demand, weak domestic combustion demand, high port inventory pressure, and a weak international fundamental situation [1] 3) Summary by Relevant Content Market Price Data - From July 2 to August 4, 2025, prices of products such as South China LPG, Shandong LPG, Shandong ether - after carbon four, and Shandong alkylated oil showed certain fluctuations. For example, South China LPG dropped from 4480 yuan/ton on July 2 to 4390 yuan/ton on August 4 [1] - The main contract has shifted to the 09 contract, and the basis has strengthened to 445 (+79). The 09 - 10 spread is now - 413 (+26), and the 9 - 10 monthly spread is - 439 (-18) [1] International Market Situation - The international market is fundamentally loose and continues to be weak. The August CP official price has been lowered, with propane at 520 US dollars/ton (down 55 US dollars/ton from last month) and butane at 490 US dollars/ton (down 55 US dollars/ton from last month). The estimated landed cost of propane is around 4327 yuan/ton, and that of butane is around 4090 yuan/ton [1] - The US - to - Far - East arbitrage window is closed, while the US - Asia arbitrage window is open. The CP propane landed discount fluctuates. The FEI - MOPJ first expands and then shrinks, currently at - 53 (-5) [1] Fundamental Situation - In terms of fundamentals, port arrivals have increased, leading to port inventory accumulation; factory inventory has slightly decreased; and the commodity volume has slightly rebounded [1] - The spot profit of PDH to PP fluctuates, and the paper profit continues to improve; the profits of other downstream devices have all declined. The PDH operating rate is 72.63% (-0.5pct). Although Liaoning Jinfa has resumed production, Tianjin Bohua has shut down due to a malfunction, and both Tianjin Bohua and Jiangsu Ruiheng are expected to restart next week [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Price**: This week, FEI M1 closed at $529/ton (+$2.72), with a premium of -$21.75/ton. The spot price remained under pressure. CP closed at $524/ton (+$2), with a premium of -$25/ton. MB M1 closed at $366/ton (-$3). The domestic PG2509 closed at 3,923 yuan/ton (+124 yuan), and the 09 basis was 375 (+82). The price difference between CP and FEI M1 further narrowed to -$6.82/ton [1]. - **Domestic Supply**: As of Thursday this week, the operating rate of major refineries was 81.55% (+0.34%). Qilu Petrochemical started operations, and Daxie Petrochemical increased its load. The estimated refinery profit was 976.96 yuan/ton, due to the decrease in crude oil costs. The operating rate of independent refineries was 48.20% (+0.04%), with Haike Ruilin increasing its load and Dongming Petrochemical undergoing maintenance. The utilization rate excluding large - scale refineries was 44.36% (-0.54%). The domestic LPG sales volume was 52.65 tons (+0.16 tons). Haike Ruilin and Hualian Petrochemical restarted this period. Zhongmei Mengda plans to resume production in early August, and Qicheng Petrochemical has a maintenance plan. The commercial volume of ether - after C4 was 17.74 tons (+0.24 tons), which was seasonally high. Longzhong's arrival data showed that 80.98 tons arrived this week (+32 tons), and the 4 - week average arrival volume remained high [1]. - **Domestic Demand**: In terms of chemical demand this period, the PDH operating rate decreased slightly due to new maintenance, the alkylation operating rate changed little, and the MTBE operating rate decreased slightly due to new maintenance. For civil gas, it was still in the off - season of consumption, and the overall demand was weak [2]. - **Domestic Inventory**: The factory inventory was 18.08 tons (-0.35 tons). This week, the factory inventory decreased slightly for the first time recently, but the overall factory inventory was still high. Longzhong showed that the arrival volume this week increased compared with last week, and the 4 - week average was high. The port inventory was 313.44 tons (+9.36 tons), and the inventory fluctuated at a high level [3]. - **Overseas Situation**: In the United States this week, C3 production remained at a high level, demand improved from a low level, and the 4 - week average increased significantly. It was still in the inventory accumulation cycle, but the inventory accumulation slowed down in recent weeks. Kpler showed that the US LPG exports in June were 5,969 KT (+300 KT), of which only 458 KT (+129 KT) were sent to China, while the volume sent to Japan increased to 1,332 KT (+223 KT). Middle - East LPG exports in June were 3,698 KT (-515 KT), of which 1,281 KT (-518 KT) were exported to China and 1,662 KT (+232 KT) to India [6]. - **Overall View**: This period, crude oil was strongly influenced by geopolitical issues and showed a strong upward trend. On Friday, affected by the US non - farm payrolls data, international oil prices dropped significantly. At the same time, the domestic policy sentiment also weakened, and the futures market declined sharply. For LPG, the prices of both domestic and international markets fluctuated weakly compared with crude oil, and the price ratio decreased. The CP propane price in August decreased by $55 to $520/ton compared with July. Despite high exports, the international market remained under pressure. The domestic supply side remained loose, the combustion demand was weak, and the chemical demand changed little this period. From the supply side, the operating rate of major refineries was stable this week, and the commercial volume increased slightly due to the resumption of production of some enterprises. In terms of imports, the arrival volume rebounded this week, and the arrival volumes in recent weeks were generally high, and the port inventory remained at a high level. From the demand side, the overall PDH operating rate increased significantly due to the resumption of production of some devices this week. Although it decreased slightly due to the shutdown of Bohua, there are still some start - up plans in August, which will support the demand for LPG to a certain extent. In addition, the MTBE exports still provided short - term support, and the alkylation oil changed little. Overall, the LPG market remained in a loose situation [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Core Data - **Supply**: The operating rate of major refineries was 81.55% (previous week: 81.21%, +0.34%); the operating rate of independent refineries was 48.2% (previous week: 48.16%, +0.04%); the domestic LPG commercial sales volume was 52.65 tons (previous week: 52.49 tons, +0.16 tons); the arrival volume (Kpler) was 1,017.55 tons (previous week: 640.95 tons, +376.6 tons); the arrival volume (LZ) was 81 tons (previous week: 49 tons, +32 tons) [8]. - **Demand**: The PDH operating rate was 72.63% (previous week: 73.13%, -0.5%); the MTBE operating rate was 66.18% (previous week: 67.85%, -1.67%); the alkylation oil operating rate was 46.56% (previous week: 46.36%, +0.20%); the sales - to - production ratio in East China was 103% (previous week: 99%, +4%); the sales - to - production ratio in South China was 100% (previous week: 93%, +7%) [8]. - **Inventory**: The factory inventory was 18.08 tons (previous week: 18.43 tons, -0.35 tons); the port inventory was 313.44 tons (previous week: 304.08 tons, +9.36 tons) [8]. - **US Situation**: C3 production was 2,822 (previous week: 2,845, -23); C3 demand was 1,089 (previous week: 438, +651); C3 inventory was 83,477 (previous week: 82,849, +628); the shipping volume (Kpler) was 1,265.32 tons (previous week: 1,440.41 tons, -175.09 tons) [8]. - **Middle - East Situation**: The shipping volume (Kpler) was 690.89 tons (previous week: 977.79 tons, -286.9 tons) [8]. - **Price and Valuation**: Brent was $69.52/barrel (previous week: $68.39/barrel, +$1.13); FEI M1 was $529.82/ton (previous week: $527.10/ton, +$2.72); CP M1 was $524/ton (previous week: $522/ton, +$2); MB M1 was $0.70/ton (previous week: $0.71/ton, -$0.01); NWE C3 M1 was $455.6/ton (previous week: $454/ton, +$1.6); the price difference between FEI and CP M1 was $5.82 (previous week: $5.10, +$0.72); the price difference between CP and MB M1 was $157.49 (previous week: $152.45, +$5.04); the main LPG futures contract was 3,965 yuan/ton (previous week: 4,047 yuan/ton, -82 yuan); the price of the cheapest LPG deliverable was 4,340 yuan/ton (unchanged) [8]. 3.2 Price and Profit Data - **Price Data**: It includes the prices of various crude oils, LPG, and related products, as well as their price differences, month - to - month spreads, and price - to - price ratios. For example, Brent was $71.78/barrel (previous day: $72.75/barrel, -$0.97, previous week: $69.36/barrel, +$2.42); FEI C3 M1 was $526.88/ton (previous day: $530.96/ton, -$4.08, previous week: $530.18/ton, -$3.31) [11]. - **Profit Data**: It includes the盘面 profit and spot profit of various processes, such as the LPG import盘面 profit (FEI: -654.50 yuan/ton, previous day: -602.12 yuan/ton, -52.38 yuan, previous week: -627.55 yuan/ton, -26.95 yuan; CP: -259.40 yuan/ton, previous day: -169.23 yuan/ton, -90.17 yuan, previous week: -237.03 yuan/ton, -22.37 yuan), and the Asian naphtha cracking profit (-41.5404 dollars/ton, previous day: -39.51 dollars/ton, +1.07 dollars, previous week: -39.51 dollars/ton, -2.03 dollars) [11]. 3.3 LPG Domestic Supply and Demand - **Domestic Weekly Supply and Demand Data**: The operating rate of major refineries was 81.55% (previous week: 81.21%, +0.34%); the operating rate of independent refineries was 48.2% (previous week: 48.16%, +0.04%); the LPG commercial volume was 52.65 tons (previous week: 52.49 tons, +0.16 tons); the PDH operating rate was 73.58% (previous week: 75.30%, -1.72%); the MTBE operating rate was 66.18% (previous week: 67.85%, -1.67%); the alkylation oil operating rate was 46.56% (previous week: 46.36%, +0.1985%) [76]. - **Refinery Operating Rate**: The operating rate of major refineries showed a seasonal high, and the operating rate of Shandong independent refineries also changed slightly [77][79]. - **LPG Arrival Volume**: The weekly arrival volume of Chinese LPG showed a seasonal pattern, and the arrival volume increased this week [80][81]. - **Domestic Commercial Volume**: The commercial volume of LPG in China showed a seasonal pattern, and the industrial and civil LPG commercial volumes also had corresponding changes [82][84]. - **C3 Chemical Demand - PDH**: The PDH operating rate rebounded, and some devices had maintenance and restart plans [89]. - **C4 Chemical Demand**: It includes the demand and operating rates of MTBE and alkylation oil. The MTBE operating rate decreased slightly, and the alkylation oil operating rate increased slightly [93][104]. - **Combustion Demand**: The sales - to - production ratios of LPG in East China and South China increased, while that in Shandong was relatively low [115][116]. - **LPG Factory Inventory**: The factory inventory decreased slightly this week, but the overall inventory was still high [117][118]. - **LPG Port Inventory**: The port inventory increased, and the inventory remained at a high level [125][126]. - **Imports and Exports (Kpler)**: The weekly total imports of Chinese LPG showed a seasonal pattern, and the imports from the United States and the Middle East also changed [132][137]. 3.4 LPG US Supply and Demand - **Weekly Supply and Demand Situation**: The US refinery operating rate showed a seasonal pattern. The C3 production decreased slightly, the demand increased, and the inventory increased [144][147]. - **Monthly Supply and Demand Situation**: The monthly production, demand, and inventory of US propane also showed seasonal patterns [159][160]. - **Imports and Exports (Kpler)**: The weekly total exports of US LPG showed a seasonal pattern, and the exports to different regions also changed [161][170]. - **Panama Canal Situation**: The water level of the Panama Canal's Gatun Lake and the number of ships waiting to pass through the locks showed seasonal patterns [171][173]. 3.5 LPG South Korea and Japan Supply and Demand - **South Korea Supply and Demand**: The production, demand, inventory, imports, and exports of South Korea's LPG and propane all showed seasonal patterns [174][185]. - **Japan Supply and Demand**: The production, demand, inventory, imports, and exports of Japan's LPG also showed seasonal patterns [190][194]. 3.6 LPG Middle - East Supply and Demand - **By Exporting Country (Kpler)**: The total exports of Middle - East LPG, the exports of different countries (such as the UAE, Iran, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and Kuwait), and the exports to China all showed seasonal patterns [199][205]. - **By Destination**: The exports of Middle - East LPG to China, India, and Southeast Asia showed seasonal patterns [206][207]. - **By Export Terminal**: The exports of LPG from different export terminals (such as Ruwais in the UAE, Ras Laffan in Qatar, Mina Al - Ahmadi in Kuwait, and Ras Tanura in Saudi Arabia) showed seasonal patterns [208][211]. 3.7 LPG India Supply and Demand - **Supply and Demand Situation**: The production, demand, imports, and exports of Indian LPG showed seasonal patterns [216][219].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core View of the Report - The domestic LPG market is expected to continue its narrow - range oscillating trend. Although chemical demand is strong, the weak combustion demand restricts upward movement. International LPG prices are weak, and factors such as increased warehouse receipts and regional differences also affect the market [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Price Data and Changes - From July 25 to July 31, 2025, the price of South China LPG decreased from 4500 to 4440 (-40), East China LPG remained at 4413, Shandong LPG decreased from 4630 to 4540 (-40), propane CFR South China increased from 549 to 550 (+5), propane CIF Japan increased from 514 to 555 (+28), MB propane spot decreased from 71 to 73 (-1), CP forecast contract price increased from 522 to 530 (+7), Shandong ether - after carbon four decreased from 4900 to 4910 (-20), Shandong alkylated oil decreased from 7980 to 7970 (-30), paper import profit decreased from -33 to -120 (-82), and the main basis increased from 453 to 437 (+9) [1] 2. Market Conditions on Thursday - The cheapest deliverable was East China civil gas at 4413. FEI oscillated, CP slightly declined, and the official CP prices for August were announced, with propane/butane at 520/490 respectively. PP prices dropped, and the production profits of FEI and CP for PP slightly weakened, with CP having a lower production cost than FEI. The PG futures weakened, the monthly spread slightly weakened, and the 09 - 10 spread was -438 (-13). The US - to - Far - East arbitrage window closed [1] 3. PG Market Conditions - The PG futures oscillated. International LPG prices were weak, and the significant increase in warehouse receipts suppressed the futures. Domestic chemical demand increased, but weak combustion demand restricted upward movement. The cheapest deliverable was East China civil gas at 4413 yuan/ton. The basis weakened to 370 (-63). The inter - month reverse spread continued to strengthen. The warehouse receipt registration volume was 9804 lots (+1000), with 1000 lots added by Qingdao Yunda. The overseas prices continued to weaken, and the oil - gas ratio weakened. In terms of regional spreads, PG - CP reached 43 (+18), FEI - MB reached 155 (-6), FEI - CP reached 4.5 (+4.5); the US - Asia arbitrage window closed [1] 4. Weekly View - The FEI propane discount continued to decline, and the CP landed discount oscillated. The change in FEI - MOPJ was small, with the latest at -47.5 (-3.75). PDH profits improved, and MTBE export profits declined. The arrival volume decreased significantly, with ships in South China delayed due to typhoons, and port inventories decreased. Factory inventories slightly increased. The commodity volume decreased by 0.53%. Chemical demand was strong; the PDH operating rate increased significantly to 73.13% (+2.01 pct) as Zhenhua Petrochemical and Hebei Haiwei gradually increased their loads. Next week, Liaoning Jinfa plans to resume operation; the alkylation operating rate increased, and Henan Chengxin's alkylation unit has a restart plan; the MTBE operating load increased, with manufacturers focusing on exports, and the overall operation was stable. Weak combustion demand restricted upward movement [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The domestic LPG market is expected to continue its narrow - range oscillatory trend. International LPG prices are weak, and the increase in domestic chemical demand is offset by the low combustion demand [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Price Data - On July 29, 2025, the prices of South China LPG, East China LPG, Shandong LPG, Shandong ether - after carbon four, and Shandong alkylated oil were 4480, 4413, 4413, 4600, and 550 respectively. The daily changes were 0, 0, 0, - 20, and 1 respectively [1] 3.2 Market Conditions - The PG futures market is oscillating. The international LPG price is weak, and the significant increase in warehouse receipts suppresses the market. The domestic chemical demand is increasing, but the low combustion demand restricts the upward movement. The cheapest deliverable is East China civil gas at 4413 yuan/ton [1] 3.3 Spread and Arbitrage - The basis has weakened to 370 (- 63). The inter - month reverse spread continues to strengthen. The 08 - 09 spread is 2, and the 08 - 10 spread is - 398. The US - to - Far - East arbitrage window is closed [1] 3.4 Production Profit - FEI and CP have risen, PP has risen significantly, and the production profit of PP made from FEI and CP has deteriorated. The CP production cost is lower than that of FEI. PDH profit has improved, and MTBE export profit has declined [1] 3.5 Inventory and Supply - The arrival volume has decreased significantly. Due to typhoons, ships in South China are delayed, and port inventories have decreased. Factory inventories have slightly increased. The commodity volume has decreased by 0.53% [1] 3.6 Demand - Chemical demand is strong. PDH operating rate has increased significantly to 73.13% (+ 2.01 pct). Alkylation operating rate has increased, and MTBE operating load has risen [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core View of the Report - The PG futures market is expected to continue its narrow - range oscillation. International LPG prices are weak, and the increase in warehouse receipts suppresses the market. Domestic chemical demand is rising, but weak combustion demand restricts upward movement. The cheapest deliverable is East China civil LPG. There are changes in regional spreads, and the US - Asia arbitrage window is closed. [1] Summary by Related Catalog Price Data and Changes - **Daily Changes**: From 2025/07/23 to 2025/07/24, there were daily changes in various LPG - related prices. For example, South China LPG decreased by 90, East China LPG decreased by 30, and propane CFR South China increased by 3. The paper import profit decreased by 122, and the main basis decreased by 67. [1] - **Weekly Changes**: From 2025/07/24 to 2025/07/25, South China LPG decreased from 4590 to 4500, East China LPG decreased from 4443 to 4413. The paper import profit changed from 89 to - 33, and the basis weakened to 370 (-63). [1] Market Conditions - **Futures Market**: The PG futures market is weakening, and the monthly spread continues to decline. The 08 - 09 spread is - 10, and the 08 - 10 spread is - 431. The US - Asia arbitrage window is closed. [1] - **Regional Spreads**: PG - CP reaches 43 (+18), FEI - MB is 155 (-6), FEI - CP is 4.5 (+4.5). FEI propane discount continues to fall, and CP arrival discount fluctuates. FEI - MOPJ changes little, with the latest at - 47.5 (-3.75). [1] - **Production Profits**: FEI and CP - based PP production profits improve slightly. PDH profits improve, while MTBE export profits decline. [1] Supply and Demand - **Supply**: Warehouse receipt registration volume is 9804 lots (+1000), with Qingdao Yunda adding 1000 lots. The arrival volume drops significantly. The commodity volume decreases by 0.53%. The factory inventory increases slightly. [1] - **Demand**: Chemical demand is strong. PDH operating rate rises significantly to 73.13% (+2.01 pct), and next week, Liaoning Jinfa plans to resume operation. The alkylation operating rate increases, and the MTBE operating load rises. However, combustion demand is weak. [1]

Report Key Points 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - Despite the strong chemical demand outlook, the decline in oil prices and international LPG prices has led to a weakening of the PG market. The domestic LPG market is expected to continue its narrow - range oscillation due to weak combustion demand [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Price and Basis - From July 1 to July 22, prices of various LPG products showed different changes. For example, the price of South China LPG increased from 4530 to 4570, while the price of Shandong liquefied gas decreased from 4486 to 4443. The basis of the main contract strengthened to 433 (+93), and the 08 - 09 month - spread was 38 [1] International Market and Arbitrage - FEI and CP continued to decline, while PP was running strongly. The production profit of PP made from FEI and CP improved, and the CP production cost was lower than that of FEI. The US - to - Far - East arbitrage window opened, and AFEI propane dropped significantly [1] Inventory and Supply - High unloading volumes led to a significant build - up of port inventories and a small build - up of factory inventories. The commodity volume decreased by 0.98%, mainly due to reduced external sales from the main refineries in South China's Maoming, increased self - use in Shandong, and limited supply in East China [1] Demand - Chemical demand was strong. The PDH operating rate increased significantly to 71.78% (+10.91pct), and the alkylation operating rate also increased. MTBE export orders increased, but combustion demand was weak [1]