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LPG早报 研究中心能化团队 2026/03/02 L P G 日期 华南液化气 华东液化气 山东液化气 丙烷CFR华南 丙烷CIF日 本 CP预测合 同价 山东醚后碳四 山东烷基 化油 纸面进口利润 主力基差 2026/02/13 4750 4467 4470 621 551 529 4460 7280 -171 315 2026/02/24 4760 4424 4500 640 583 540 4380 7300 -289 -58 2026/02/25 4770 4424 4500 641 600 540 4380 7300 -272 14 2026/02/26 4760 4444 4480 645 631 550 4410 7300 -301 -22 2026/02/27 4765 4429 4500 644 638 551 4420 7300 -300 10 日度变化 5 -15 20 -1 7 1 10 0 1 32 周度观点 上周盘面上行，主要受地缘、沙特装置故障影响。基差-342（-76），4-5月差73（-8）。仓单6679手（-83）。最便宜交割品是上海民 用4200（+50）。FEI月差4 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints - The intraday 3 - 4 month spread is -206 (+52), and the 4 - 5 month spread is 88 (+6). The warehouse receipts remain unchanged. The East China market is mostly stable with the local transaction center moving down. As the Spring Festival approaches, the market transportation capacity gradually decreases, and refineries are actively shipping. It is expected that the East China market will remain stable in the short - term, with local areas possibly weakening [1] - This week, the futures price fluctuated and declined, mainly due to the decline in oil prices and the weak basis of PG itself. The basis strengthened by 163 to -71 (calculated using Shanghai civil LPG). The 3 - 4 month spread is -303 (-9). Warehouse receipts are 6902 lots (+1035), with 1000 lots added by Wuchan Zhongda. The current cheapest deliverable is Shanghai civil LPG at 4150 (+30). The overseas paper - cargo monthly spread has risen, and the oil - gas ratio has fluctuated. The domestic - overseas spread has weakened. PDH profit has declined. Port storage capacity decreased by 1.67 pct, ship arrivals decreased by 5.22%, mainly in East China; refinery storage capacity decreased by 0.39 pct; external sales increased by 0.94%. Chemical demand has increased, and PDH operating rate is 62.66% (+1.94 pct). Overall, the domestic basis is still weak; due to the large price difference between propane and civil LPG, the downward space for civil LPG may be limited before the festival; the 3 - 4 month spread is fairly valued, and subsequent attention should be paid to warehouse receipts. The overseas market is still tight in the short - term, with high freight rates, and geopolitics and cold snaps are still key factors that need continuous attention [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily Data | Date | South China LPG | East China LPG | Shandong LPG | Propane CFR South China | Propane CIF Japan | CP Forecast Contract Price | Shandong Ether - after C4 | Shandong Alkylation Oil | Paper Import Profit | Main Contract Basis | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | 2026/02/06 | 4835 | 4475 | 4440 | 635 | 569 | 532 | 4240 | 7230 | -213 | 317 | | 2026/02/09 | 4765 | 4475 | 4470 | 636 | 576 | 534 | 4370 | 7280 | -281 | 381 | | 2026/02/10 | 4750 | 4475 | 4490 | 638 | 578 | 538 | 4450 | 7280 | -305 | 324 | | 2026/02/11 | 4750 | 4475 | 4430 | 635 | 581 | 538 | 4450 | 7250 | -282 | 313 | | 2026/02/12 | 4750 | 4467 | 4440 | 635 | 571 | 534 | 4460 | 7280 | -274 | 296 | | Daily Change | 0 | -8 | 10 | 0 | -10 | -4 | 10 | 30 | 8 | -17 | [1] Daily Viewpoint - The 3 - 4 month spread is -206 (+52), and the 4 - 5 month spread is 88 (+6). Warehouse receipts remain unchanged. The East China market is mostly stable, with local transaction centers moving down, and the mainstream transaction price is 4150 - 4800 yuan/ton. As the Spring Festival approaches, the market transportation capacity gradually decreases, and refineries are actively shipping. It is expected that the East China market will remain stable in the short - term, with local areas possibly weakening [1] Weekly Viewpoint - This week, the futures price fluctuated and declined, mainly due to the decline in oil prices and the weak basis of PG itself. The basis strengthened by 163 to -71 (calculated using Shanghai civil LPG). The 3 - 4 month spread is -303 (-9). Warehouse receipts are 6902 lots (+1035), with 1000 lots added by Wuchan Zhongda. The current cheapest deliverable is Shanghai civil LPG at 4150 (+30) [1] - The overseas paper - cargo monthly spread has risen, and the oil - gas ratio has fluctuated. The domestic - overseas spread has weakened. PG - FEI c1 is 75.26 (-9.6), FEI - MB is 185.6 (+16.6), and FEI - CP is 10 (+13). Freight rates have increased. The actual landed cost has fluctuated weakly. The FEI - MOPJ spread has widened, with the latest at -44.75 (-15.75) [1] - PDH profit has declined. Port storage capacity decreased by 1.67 pct, ship arrivals decreased by 5.22%, mainly in East China; refinery storage capacity decreased by 0.39 pct; external sales increased by 0.94%. Chemical demand has increased, and PDH operating rate is 62.66% (+1.94 pct). The temperature has slightly warmed up but is still low, and the rigid demand on the combustion side is still acceptable [1] - As the Spring Festival approaches, the downstream replenishment is coming to an end. It is expected that the transportation capacity will decline next week, and factories will mainly focus on inventory clearance. Overall, the domestic basis is still weak; due to the large price difference between propane and civil LPG, the downward space for civil LPG may be limited before the festival; the 3 - 4 month spread is fairly valued, and subsequent attention should be paid to warehouse receipts. The overseas market is still tight in the short - term, with high freight rates, and geopolitics and cold snaps are still key factors that need continuous attention [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints - The current core contradiction affecting LPG price trends includes the volatile crude oil market on the cost - side, with geopolitical factors dominating in the short - term. The outer - market propane is oscillating, and the domestic fundamentals are relatively stable compared to last week but with significant price fluctuations due to the US - Iran situation. The market is expected to be in an oscillating state, and attention should be paid to the risks above [1][2][19]. - In the long - term, the supply is expected to be resilient next year, while the demand growth in China and India, the main growth engines of Asian LPG demand, is expected to slow down [14]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Core Contradiction and Strategy Suggestion 3.1.1 Core Contradiction - Cost - side: The crude oil market is oscillating. In the medium - to - long - term, it is affected by both supply surplus and geopolitical factors, with geopolitics being dominant in the short - term. The US - Iran situation has caused the oil price to fluctuate this week [1]. - Outer - market propane: It is oscillating. The shipping volume in the Middle East is neutral, and the arrival premium is still high. In the US, supply has declined due to the cold wave, and inventory is in a destocking state [1]. - Domestic fundamentals: The supply remains low, the arrival volume is not high, and the port inventory has slightly increased. The demand is weak due to the maintenance of PDH devices. The market is affected by the US - Iran situation, and if the situation escalates, it will have a significant impact on the supply side [2]. 3.1.2 Trading Strategy Suggestion - **Market Positioning**: The market is in an oscillating state, and the price range of PG03 is 3800 - 4500 [19]. - **Basis Strategy**: Wait and see, as the market is volatile due to geopolitical uncertainties [19]. - **Calendar Spread Strategy**: Go for a reverse spread at high prices. The 03 contract is the forced cancellation month, and the short - term warehouse receipt volume is not large [20]. - **Hedging Arbitrage Strategy**: Pay attention to the opportunities of internal - external price differences [20]. 3.1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Suggestion - **LPG Price Range Forecast**: The price range of LPG is 3800 - 4500, the current volatility (20 - day rolling) is 25.84%, and the historical percentage of the current volatility (3 - year) is 53.65% [21]. - **Hedging Strategy**: For inventory management, when the inventory is high, short PG futures to lock in profits. For procurement management, when the procurement inventory is low, buy PG futures at low prices to lock in procurement costs [21][23]. 3.2 This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Attention Events 3.2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Negative Information**: PDH has been in maintenance this week, with an operating rate of about 62%. Many devices such as Jinneng, Juzhengyuan, and Zhongjing are in maintenance [23]. 3.2.2 Next Week's Important Events - February 10: US January New York Fed 1 - year inflation expectation. - February 11: China CPI/PPI; US January unemployment rate. - February 13: US January seasonally adjusted CPI [29]. 3.3 Disk Interpretation 3.3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - **Domestic Market**: The PG03 contract oscillated this week. The net position of the main profitable seats increased, and there were no obvious changes in the top 5 long and short positions in the dragon - tiger list. The net short position of the profitable seats decreased slightly, the net long position of foreign capital increased slightly, and the net long position of retail investors decreased slightly. Technically, it is still advisable to go long at low prices [25]. - **Foreign Market**: FEI M1 closed at 545.5 US dollars/ton (- 27.68), with a premium of 53.5 US dollars/ton; CP M1 closed at 535 US dollars/ton (- 10), with a CP premium of - 15 US dollars/ton; MB M1 closed at 339 US dollars/ton (+ 7.59). Affected by the US - Iran negotiation plan, the outer - market propane gave back some risk premiums [33]. 3.3.2 Basis and Calendar Spread Structure - The LPG inter - month structure is still in a BACK structure, and the 3 - 4 month spread closed at - 303 yuan/ton [31]. - This week, FEI M1 - M2 was 28.02 US dollars/ton; CP M1 - M2 was 13.5 US dollars/ton; MB M1 - M2 was 2.6 US dollars/ton. The calendar spreads of CP and MB fluctuated greatly, and the near - month of CP gave back some geopolitical premiums, and the calendar spread weakened [42]. 3.4 Valuation and Profit Analysis 3.4.1 Industrial Chain Upstream and Downstream Profit Tracking - **Upstream Profit**: This week, the gross profit of major refineries was 771 yuan/ton (+ 111), and the gross profit of Shandong local refineries was 143 yuan/ton (- 23). The profit of local refineries continued to shrink [48]. - **Downstream Profit**: The PDH profit with FEI as the cost was - 443 yuan/ton, and the PDH profit with CP as the cost was - 192 yuan/ton, still in a loss state. The MTBE gas - fractionation profit was - 19.75 yuan/ton, the isomerization profit was 175 yuan/ton, and the alkylated oil profit was - 99.4 yuan/ton, with the profits of MTBE and alkylated oil strengthening [50]. 3.4.2 Import and Export Profit Tracking This week, the import profit was oscillating, mainly due to the large fluctuations in outer - market prices [53]. 3.5 Supply, Demand, and Inventory 3.5.1 Overseas Supply and Demand - **US Supply and Demand**: This period, production decreased due to weather, demand changed little, exports increased slightly, and inventory destocked faster with the decline in production, but the overall inventory level was still high [60]. - **Middle East Supply**: In 2025, the Middle East exported 48463 KT of LPG, a year - on - year increase of 2.43%. In January 2026, it exported 4043 KT, a year - on - year decrease of 0.41%. The shipping volume in recent weeks has been low [69]. - **India Supply and Demand**: From January to December, India's LPG demand was 331774 KT, a year - on - year increase of 6.67%. In 2025, LPG imports were 23229 KT, a year - on - year increase of 8.12%. In January 2026, imports were 2204 KT, a year - on - year increase of 23.68% [72]. - **South Korea Supply and Demand**: South Korea's LPG demand has no obvious seasonality. In 2025, it imported 8434 KT of LPG, a year - on - year decrease of 2.56%. In January 2026, it imported 762 KT, a year - on - year increase of 13.32%. Since the fourth quarter, the cracking economy of LPG relative to naphtha has not been good [80]. - **Japan Supply and Demand**: Japan is highly dependent on imported LPG, and its demand and imports have obvious seasonality. In January 2026, Japan imported 1004 KT of LPG, a year - on - year decrease of 4.78%, and its LPG inventory was at a new low year - on - year [83]. 3.5.2 Domestic Supply and Demand - **Domestic Supply - Demand Balance**: Supply is expected to remain high, but the external sales volume is not high. Import volume is not high. Demand shows a decrease in chemical demand and an increase in combustion demand. In the first quarter, chemical demand weakens marginally due to PDH maintenance. Inventory is destocking, mainly at the port [86]. - **Domestic Supply**: The operating rate of major refineries is 81.81% (+ 1.79%); the operating rate of independent refineries is 51.68% (- 1.92%), and the utilization rate excluding large refineries is 47.28% (- 2.14%). The domestic LPG external sales volume is 54.88 tons (+ 0.51), and the arrival volume is 50.8 tons (+ 1.3). The factory inventory rate is 24.21% (- 0.39%), and the port inventory is 201.8 tons (+ 14.2) [89]. - **Domestic Demand**: - **PDH Demand**: Devices such as Jinneng, Zhongjing, and Juzhengyuan are in maintenance [100]. - **MTBE Demand**: There were no device changes this week, and the internal - external price difference was oscillating [104]. - **Alkylated Oil Demand**: Jingmen Yuchu was in maintenance until the end of January, and Puyang Zhongwei was newly in maintenance [112]. - **Combustion Demand**: There is no specific data, but the report mentions that combustion demand increases [86].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - On February 5th, the LPG night - market followed the oil price decline. The 03 - 04 month - spread was - 295, and the 03 basis was - 91 (calculated using Shanghai civil gas at 4,100). The FEI on the external market rose 4.75 dollars to 537.75, and the CP fell 0.25 dollars to 532.75. The number of warehouse receipts increased by 35 (Shanghai Yuchi + 35) [1] - This week, the futures price fluctuated and rose following crude oil due to geopolitical and macro - emotional disturbances. The 03 basis was 64 (-32), the 03 - 04 month - spread was - 294 (-16), - 203 (-8). The cheapest deliverable was East China civil gas at 4,418 (+46). There were 5,867 warehouse receipts (-31), with Haiyu Petrochemical decreasing by 31. The February CP official price met expectations, with propane and butane at 545/540 (+20/+20). The FEI month - spread fluctuated, while the CP and MB month - spreads declined. The oil - gas ratio decreased; the North American natural gas - LPG ratio increased [1] - The internal - external spread weakened significantly. The PG - FEI was 37.5 (-17.8), and the PG - CP was 59 (-8). Freight rates increased significantly due to North American cold snaps delaying loading operations and tight supply - demand, along with the high risk of the Strait of Hormuz blockade due to the recent tense situation in Iran. The East China propane arrival discount was 91 (+6); the AFEI, Middle East, and US propane FOB discounts were 19.25 (-16.75), - 15 (-35), 46.89 (-15.6). The FEI - MOPJ spread was - 29 (-11) [1] - The profit of China's PDH to produce propylene strengthened significantly, with the latest at - 237 (a month - on - month increase of 200). The PDH operating rate was 60.72% (-1.53 pct). Fundamentally, geopolitical risks remain, and the rising external price supports the positive sentiment of domestic LPG futures. However, the poor downstream profit in China and pre - holiday inventory reduction actions result in weak support for the spot price. Currently, the internal basis is weak, and the month - spread valuation is neutral. Future attention should be paid to warehouse receipts and the external market. The internal - external valuation is moderately high, and the external market may remain tight in the short term. Attention should be paid to the February cold snap in the US and the development of the Iranian situation [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Daily Data - From January 30th to February 5th, prices of LPG in South China, East China, and Shandong, as well as prices of propane CFR South China, propane CIF Japan, CP forecast contract price, Shandong ether - post - carbon four, Shandong alkylated oil, paper import profit, and the main basis showed different degrees of change [1] 3.2 Daily Viewpoint - On February 5th, the LPG night - market followed the oil price decline. The 03 - 04 month - spread was - 295, the 03 basis was - 91 (using Shanghai civil gas at 4,100 for calculation). The FEI on the external market rose 4.75 dollars to 537.75, the CP fell 0.25 dollars to 532.75, and the number of warehouse receipts increased by 35 (Shanghai Yuchi + 35) [1] 3.3 Weekly Viewpoint - This week, the futures price fluctuated and rose following crude oil due to geopolitical and macro - emotional disturbances, with changes in the 03 basis, 03 - 04 month - spread, and the price of the cheapest deliverable. The number of warehouse receipts decreased by 31. The February CP official price met expectations. There were changes in the FEI, CP, and MB month - spreads, the oil - gas ratio, and the North American natural gas - LPG ratio [1] - The internal - external spread weakened significantly. Freight rates increased significantly. There were changes in propane discounts in different regions and the FEI - MOPJ spread. The profit of China's PDH to produce propylene strengthened significantly, and the PDH operating rate decreased. Fundamentally, geopolitical risks remain, and there are differences in the support for futures and spot prices. The internal basis is weak, the month - spread valuation is neutral, the internal - external valuation is moderately high, and attention should be paid to relevant factors in the future [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the LPG futures market fluctuated and rose following crude oil due to geopolitical and macro - emotional disturbances. The 03 basis was 64 (-32), and the 03 - 04 spread was -294 (-16). The current cheapest deliverable is East China civil gas at 4418 (+46). The geopolitical risk is not over, and the rising external prices support the positive sentiment of domestic LPG futures. However, the domestic downstream profit is poor, and there is inventory reduction before the festival, so the support for spot prices is weak. The domestic basis is weak, the spread valuation is neutral, and attention should be paid to warehouse receipts and the external market. The internal - external valuation is slightly on the high side, and the external market may remain tight in the short term. Attention should be paid to the February cold wave in the US and the development of the Iranian situation [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily Data - From January 28 to February 3, 2026, the prices of South China LPG, East China LPG, Shandong LPG, propane CFR South China, propane CIF Japan, CP forecast contract price, Shandong ether - after carbon four, and Shandong alkylated oil showed different degrees of change. The daily change on February 3 compared with the previous day was -10 for South China LPG, 0 for East China LPG and Shandong LPG, -3 for propane CFR South China, -8 for propane CIF Japan, 2 for CP forecast contract price, -10 for Shandong ether - after carbon four, -20 for Shandong alkylated oil, 18 for paper import profit, and -39 for the main basis [1]. Daily Viewpoint - On Monday, the market fluctuated upward. The cheapest spot, Shanghai Gaoqiao, was 4120, with a basis of -89. The 03 - 04 spread was -260 (+24), the 03 - 05 spread was -176 (+14), and the 04 - 05 spread was 84 (-10). The warehouse receipts of Wuchan Zhongda Chemical increased by 1000 [1]. Weekly Viewpoint - This week, the market fluctuated and rose following crude oil due to geopolitical and macro - emotional disturbances. The 03 basis was 64 (-32), the 03 - 04 spread was -294 (-16), and the 03 - 05 spread was -203 (-8). The current cheapest deliverable is East China civil gas at 4418 (+46). There were 5867 warehouse receipts (-31), with 31 fewer from Haiyu Petrochemical. The February CP official price met expectations, with propane and butane at 545/540 (+20/+20). The FEI spread fluctuated, while the CP and MB spreads declined. The oil - gas ratio decreased, and the North American natural gas - LPG ratio increased. The internal - external relationship weakened significantly, with PG - FEI at 37.5 (-17.8) and PG - CP at 59 (-8). Freight rates rose significantly due to loading delays caused by the North American cold wave and supply - demand tightness, as well as the high risk of the Strait of Hormuz blockade due to the recent tense situation in Iran. The East China propane arrival discount was 91 (+6); the FOB discounts for AFEI, Middle East, and US propane were 19.25 (-16.75), -15 (-35), and 46.89 (-15.6) respectively. The FEI - MOPJ spread was -29 (-11). The profit of China's PDH to produce propylene strengthened significantly, with the latest at -237 (a month - on - month increase of 200). The PDH operating rate was 60.72% (-1.53 pct) [1].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - This week, the futures market fluctuated and rose following crude oil due to geopolitical and macro - emotional disturbances. The 03 basis was 64 (-32), and the 03 - 04 spread was -294 (-16). The current cheapest deliverable was East China civil gas at 4418 (+46). The warehouse receipt was 5867 lots (-31). The February CP official price met expectations, with propane and butane at 545/540 (+20/+20). The FEI spread fluctuated, while the CP and MB spreads declined. The oil - gas ratio decreased, and the North American natural gas - LPG ratio increased. The internal - external spread weakened significantly. Freight rates rose significantly due to loading delays caused by the North American cold snap and supply - demand tightness, as well as the high risk of the Strait of Hormuz blockade due to the tense situation in Iran. The profit of domestic PDH to propylene strengthened significantly, with the latest at -237 (a month - on - month increase of 200). The PDH operating rate was 60.72% (-1.53pct). Fundamentally, the geopolitical risk has not subsided. Supported by the rising external price, the sentiment of domestic LPG futures is good, but the domestic downstream profit is poor and there is a de - stocking behavior before the festival, so the support for the spot price is not strong. The current internal basis is weak, the spread valuation is neutral, and the follow - up needs to pay attention to the warehouse receipts and the external market. The internal - external valuation is moderately high, and the external market may remain tight in the short term. Attention should be paid to the cold snap in the US in February and the development of the situation in Iran [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs LPG Price Data - From January 27 to February 2, 2026, the prices of South China LPG, East China LPG, Shandong LPG, propane CFR South China, propane CIF Japan, CP forecast contract price, Shandong ether - after carbon four, Shandong alkylated oil, paper import profit, and main basis all had corresponding changes. For example, the South China LPG price increased from 4840 to 4870, with a daily change of 30. The paper import profit changed from 54 to -40, with a daily change of 137 [1] Daily Viewpoints - On Monday, the futures market fell significantly, following the oil price and the external market. The 03 - 04 spread was -284 (-2), the 03 - 05 spread was -190 (-12), and the 04 - 05 spread was 94 (-13). As of 10:30 p.m. on Monday, FEI and CP were 523.25 and 525.75 US dollars respectively [1] Weekly Viewpoints - This week, the futures market fluctuated and rose following crude oil due to geopolitical and macro - emotional disturbances. The 03 basis was 64 (-32), and the 03 - 04 spread was -294 (-16). The current cheapest deliverable was East China civil gas at 4418 (+46). The warehouse receipt was 5867 lots (-31), with 31 lots reduced from Haiyu Petrochemical. The February CP official price met expectations, with propane and butane at 545/540 (+20/+20). The FEI spread fluctuated, while the CP and MB spreads declined. The oil - gas ratio decreased, and the North American natural gas - LPG ratio increased. The internal - external spread weakened significantly, with PG - FEI at 37.5 (-17.8) and PG - CP at 59 (-8). Freight rates rose significantly due to loading delays caused by the North American cold snap and supply - demand tightness, as well as the high risk of the Strait of Hormuz blockade due to the tense situation in Iran. The East China propane arrival discount was 91 (+6); the FOB discounts of AFEI, Middle East, and US propane were 19.25 (-16.75), -15 (-35), and 46.89 (-15.6) respectively. The FEI - MOPJ spread was -29 (-11). The profit of domestic PDH to propylene strengthened significantly, with the latest at -237 (a month - on - month increase of 200). The PDH operating rate was 60.72% (-1.53pct). Fundamentally, the geopolitical risk has not subsided. Supported by the rising external price, the sentiment of domestic LPG futures is good, but the domestic downstream profit is poor and there is a de - stocking behavior before the festival, so the support for the spot price is not strong. The current internal basis is weak, the spread valuation is neutral, and the follow - up needs to pay attention to the warehouse receipts and the external market. The internal - external valuation is moderately high, and the external market may remain tight in the short term. Attention should be paid to the cold snap in the US in February and the development of the situation in Iran [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - LPG prices mostly fluctuate following the trends of overseas propane and crude oil. This week, the PG market was mainly influenced by geopolitical factors and fluctuated with crude oil. With Iran being an important LPG supplier to China, the overall price trended strongly. After the US postponed military action against Iran on Friday, the risk premium was reversed [1][2]. - On the fundamentals, although the Iran issue has not had much substantial impact on PG, the overall shipping volume from the Middle East remains low, which will continue for some time and support import costs [2]. - In the domestic demand side, with the maintenance of PDH units this week, the marginal demand has weakened. Meanwhile, the profit calculated by FEI has returned to positive, and subsequent maintenance situations need to be monitored [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Core Contradictions - Cost - end crude oil market fluctuates repeatedly. International crude oil faces the pressure of oversupply in fundamentals and is continuously affected by geopolitical risks. After the US suspended military action against Iran on Friday, the short - term risk premium was reversed [1]. - Overseas propane market is in a volatile state. The shipping volume in the Middle East remains low, and the US is in a state of inventory reduction with increased exports this week, but the absolute inventory level is still high, and the demand is significantly weaker year - on - year. As of Friday, the FEI premium is $37.75, and the CP premium is $29 [1]. - The domestic fundamentals are stable. The arrival volume at ports this week is still low, port inventories continue to decline, and the commercial volume of refineries remains at a relatively low level. On the chemical demand side, PDH maintenance increased this week, and the operating rate declined [1]. 3.1.2 Trading Strategy Recommendations - **Market Positioning**: The market is expected to be volatile. The price range of PG03 is between 3,800 - 4,400 yuan/ton [15]. - **Basis, Calendar Spread, and Hedging Arbitrage Strategy Recommendations** - **Basis Strategy**: The basis is expected to narrow in a volatile manner. The spot price is rising due to tight supply, and the futures price may experience valuation repair [15]. - **Calendar Spread Strategy**: The spread is expected to be volatile. It is recommended to conduct reverse arbitrage when the spread is high. The near - term is relatively strongly supported, but the long - term outlook is under pressure. Attention should be paid to the impact of geopolitical factors on the near - term [16]. - **Hedging Arbitrage Strategy**: Narrow the domestic - foreign price spread and widen the PP/PG price ratio when the price is low [16]. - **Recent Strategy Review** - Hold the 3 - 4 reverse arbitrage position and partially take profits [17]. - Keep the long - PP and short - PG position on hold. Although PDH maintenance has increased recently, the PP price has risen significantly due to cost factors, and the short - term unilateral upward space is limited. The PG price fluctuates greatly due to geopolitical disturbances, making it difficult to enter the market [17]. 3.1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - **LPG Price Range Forecast**: The monthly price range of LPG is predicted to be between 3,800 - 4,400 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 16.27% and a historical 3 - year volatility percentage of 12.77% [18]. - **LPG Hedging Strategy Table** - **Inventory Management**: For enterprises with high inventory worried about price drops, they can short PG futures according to their inventory to lock in profits and cover production costs. For example, short PG2603 with a hedging ratio of 25% at an entry range of 4,300 - 4,400 yuan/ton. They can also sell call options to collect premiums to reduce costs and lock in the selling price if the spot price rises. For example, sell PG2603C4400 with a hedging ratio of 25% at an entry range of 100 - 120 yuan [18][19]. - **Procurement Management**: For enterprises with low regular inventory and planning to purchase according to orders, they can buy PG futures at a low price on the futures market to lock in procurement costs. For example, buy PG2603 and PG2603P3800 with a hedging ratio of 25% at an entry range of 3,800 - 3,900 yuan/ton. They can also sell put options to collect premiums to reduce procurement costs and lock in the spot purchase price if the PG price drops. For example, sell put options with a hedging ratio of 25% at an entry range of 20 - 40 yuan [19]. 3.2 This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Key Events 3.2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Negative Information** - PDH maintenance increased this week. Jineng's 900,000 - ton and Wanhua's 900,000 - ton units are planned to be maintained until the end of the month, Satellite's 450,000 - ton unit had a short - term shutdown this week, and Zhongjing's 1,000,000 - ton unit had a one - week short - term shutdown [19]. - The US suspended military action against Iran, and the situation in Iran has cooled down in the short term [19]. 3.2.2 Next Week's Key Events - January 19: China's Q4 GDP [24]. - January 20: China's LPR [24]. - January 22: US PCE index [24]. 3.3 Disk Interpretation 3.3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Analysis - **Domestic Market** - **Unilateral Trend and Capital Flow**: This week, the PG03 contract fluctuated upwards. The net position of the main profitable seats increased slightly; there was no significant change in the top 5 long and short positions in the dragon - tiger list; the net short position of the profitable seats increased slightly; the net long position of foreign investors and retail investors increased slightly [21]. - **Technical Analysis**: This week, PG03 generally fluctuated upwards, oscillating between 4,000 - 4,300 yuan/ton on the daily chart. On the hourly chart, attention should be paid to the support around 4,100 yuan/ton [21]. - **Basis and Calendar Spread Structure**: This week, the LPG term structure remained in a BACK structure, and the 3 - 4 calendar spread was - 242 yuan/ton [26]. - **Overseas Market** - **Unilateral Trend**: FEI M1 closed at $526/ton (+$11), with a premium of $37.75/ton; CP M1 closed at $530/ton (+$6), with a CP premium of $29/ton; MB M1 closed at $321/ton (-$11). Affected by geopolitical factors this week, FEI and CP prices mainly increased, while the US fundamentals were relatively weak, and the price declined [28]. - **Calendar Spread Structure**: This week, the FEI M1 - M2 spread was $23/ton; the CP M1 - M2 spread was $17.5/ton; the MB M1 - M2 spread was $1.3/ton. The recent increase in the near - month price has put pressure on the MB near - month contract [37]. - **Regional Price Spread Tracking**: The weak fundamentals in the US have widened the price spread between FEI and MB. The easing of the situation in Iran in the Middle East has led to a greater reversal of the CP risk premium, and the price spread between CP and FEI has narrowed [39]. 3.4 Valuation and Profit Analysis 3.4.1 Up - and Downstream Profit Tracking in the Industrial Chain - **Upstream Profit**: This week, the gross profit of major refineries was 762 yuan/ton (+85 yuan/ton), and the gross profit of Shandong local refineries was 280 yuan/ton (-89 yuan/ton). The profit of local refineries continued to shrink [43]. - **Downstream Profit**: The PDH profit based on FEI cost was +88 yuan/ton, and the PDH profit based on CP cost was - 218 yuan/ton. The profit calculated by FEI has returned to positive. The MTBE gas separation profit was - 69 yuan/ton, the isomerization profit was - 34 yuan/ton, and the alkylated oil profit was - 265 yuan/ton. The profits fluctuated slightly [45]. 3.4.2 Import - Export Profit Tracking This week, the import profit was in a volatile state [49]. 3.5 Supply - Demand and Inventory 3.5.1 Overseas Supply - Demand - **US Supply - Demand** - **EIA Weekly Supply - Demand**: This week, production remained stable, demand was still relatively high, exports recovered, and inventories continued to decline, but the overall inventory level was still relatively high [56]. - **KPLER Export Situation**: In 2025, the US exported a total of 68,283 kt of LPG, a year - on - year increase of 2.52%. Among them, exports to China were 10,187 kt, a year - on - year decrease of 43%. Weekly exports have recovered this week [61]. - **Middle East Supply**: In 2025, the Middle East exported a total of 48,463 kt of LPG, a year - on - year increase of 2.43%. Among them, exports to India were 21,171 kt, a year - on - year decrease of 1.29%; exports to China were 17,905 kt, a year - on - year increase of 25.21%. Weekly shipping volume in the Middle East has been low in recent weeks but has slightly improved [65]. - **India Supply - Demand**: From January to December, India's total LPG demand was 331,774 kt, a year - on - year increase of 6.67%. In 2025, LPG imports were 23,229 kt, a year - on - year increase of 8.12%. There is still expected to be an increase in 2026, but the growth rate is expected to be limited [70]. - **South Korea Supply - Demand**: The seasonality of South Korea's LPG demand is not obvious, as most of it is used in the chemical industry. In 2025, South Korea imported a total of 8,434 kt of LPG, a year - on - year decrease of 2.56%. Recently, the cracking economy of LPG relative to naphtha has not been good [81]. - **Japan Supply - Demand**: Japan is highly dependent on LPG imports, and the proportion of combustion demand is large, so the seasonality of demand and imports is obvious. It is expected that imports will increase as the weather gets cooler. After restocking in August, imports decreased in September, and overall, imports in August and September were neutral. Imports increased again in October. Normally, from November to February of the next year, the average monthly import volume is around 1,000 kt. From January to December 2025, Japan imported a total of 10,105 kt of LPG, a year - on - year decrease of 2.58% [84]. 3.5.2 Domestic Supply - Demand - **Domestic Supply - Demand Balance** - **Supply**: With high refinery profits, the domestic LPG production is expected to remain at a high level, but the overall external sales volume is not high. According to shipping data, the import volume is not high [89]. - **Demand**: Based on profit and seasonal performance, chemical demand has decreased, while combustion demand has increased. Overall, the chemical demand in the fourth quarter was better than expected [89]. - **Inventory**: The overall inventory is decreasing, mainly at the port end [90]. - **Domestic Supply**: The operating rate of major refineries is 77.24% (+0.26%); the operating rate of independent refineries is 53.91% (-0.66%), and the utilization rate excluding large refineries is 49.77% (-0.74%). The domestic LPG external sales volume is 51.87 tons (+0.06 tons), and the arrival volume is 53.9 tons (+1.1 tons). In terms of inventory, the refinery storage capacity utilization rate is 23.15% (-0.66%), and the port inventory is 202.78 tons (-10.42 tons) [93]. - **Domestic Demand** - **PDH Demand**: Jineng's 900,000 - ton and Wanhua's 900,000 - ton units are planned to be maintained until the end of the month, Satellite's 450,000 - ton unit had a short - term shutdown this week, and Zhongjing's 1,000,000 - ton unit had a one - week short - term shutdown [104]. - **MTBE Demand**: This week, Shandong Chengtai and Yuhuang Shengrong continued their maintenance, and Dongfang Hongye resumed production. The domestic - foreign price spread has widened [107]. - **Alkylated Oil Demand**: There were no changes in the units this week [114]. - **Combustion Demand**: No specific information provided other than related to the seasonal charts [116].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Venezuelan event may affect crude oil and then disrupt LPG prices; the overseas LPG market still has support in the near - term [1] - From the perspective of the domestic market valuation, the difference between domestic and foreign prices is high, but the basis is low; the spot is strong, but the feedback of poor PDH profits may appear, and subsequent drivers may be bearish [1] - Follow - up attention should be paid to oil prices and PDH device conditions [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Daily Data - From December 31, 2025, to January 8, 2026, prices of华南液化气,华东液化气,山东液化气,丙烷CFR华南,丙烷CIF日本,CP预测合同价,山东醚后碳四,山东烷基化油,纸面进口利润, and主力基差 changed. For example, the price of华南液化气 increased from 4590 to 4855, and the纸面 import profit increased from - 80 to 234 [1] - On January 8, 2026, compared with the previous day, the price of华南液化气 decreased by 10,华东液化气 increased by 10, and山东液化气 decreased by 20, etc. The daily change of the纸面 import profit was 126, and that of the主力基差 was 36 [1] 3.2 Daily Viewpoint - On Thursday, the futures market fluctuated mainly. The 02 - 03 spread was 103 (+18), and the 03 - 04 spread was - 170 (-11). As of 8 p.m., the FEI and CP paper prices were 505.24 and 518.24 US dollars respectively, down 8 and 6 US dollars from the previous trading day [1] 3.3 Weekly Viewpoint - This week, the domestic futures market fluctuated. It soared after the high - opening of CP on Wednesday and then declined. The 02 basis was 118 (-92), the 02 - 03 spread was 119 (+7), the 03 - 04 spread was - 184 (+14), and the number of warehouse receipts was 6398 (+30) [1] - Domestic civil gas prices showed differentiation. The cheapest deliverable product was Shandong civil gas at 4250 (-20); the price in East China was 4376 (-8), and that in South China was 4590 (+80). The overseas market rose; the official price of January CP opened higher than expected, with propane and butane at 520/525 (+35/+30) respectively [1] - Both domestic and foreign markets strengthened, mainly because the overseas market fell on Friday while the domestic market was closed. The PG - FEI reached 85 (+25). The arrival premium of propane in East China was 66 (-18), and the FOB premiums of AFEI, Middle East, and US propane in January were 8.25 (-10.5), 50 (+0), and 37.8 (-5.21) respectively. Freight rates declined. The FEI - MOPJ spread was - 15 (down 5.5 month - on - month) [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints - **Daily Viewpoint**: On Monday, the futures market showed strong performance due to positive sentiment in energy - chemical products caused by geopolitical factors, rising overseas prices, and strong LPG spot prices. The 02 - 03 spread was 94 (-10), and the 03 - 04 spread was - 185 (-25). As of 8 pm, FEI and CP paper prices rose by $4.25 and $8.25 respectively compared to the previous trading day [1]. - **Weekly Viewpoint**: The domestic market fluctuated this week, rising after the high - opening of CP on Wednesday and then falling back. The 02 basis was 118 (-92), the 02 - 03 spread was 119 (+7), the 03 - 04 spread was - 184 (+14), and the number of warehouse receipts increased by 30 to 6398. Domestic civil gas prices were differentiated, with the cheapest deliverable being Shandong civil gas at 4250 (-20). Overseas prices rose, and the January CP official prices for propane and butane were 520/525 (+35/+30). The domestic - overseas price relationship strengthened. Overall, the Venezuela event may affect crude oil and thus LPG prices, and the overseas LPG market has near - term support. Domestically, the domestic - overseas price ratio is high but the basis is low. The strong spot and poor PDH profits may lead to negative feedback, and future drivers may be bearish. Attention should be paid to oil prices and PDH plant conditions [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Data - **Price Data**: From December 29, 2025, to January 6, 2026, prices of LPG in South China, East China, and Shandong, as well as propane CFR South China, propane CIF Japan, CP forecast contract price, Shandong ether - after carbon four, and Shandong alkylation oil showed various changes. For example, South China LPG rose from 4510 on December 29, 2025, to 4865 on January 6, 2026. The daily change on January 6, 2026, showed a 5 - point increase in South China LPG, 44 points in East China LPG, etc. [1] - **Spread and Basis Data**: The 02 - 03 spread and 03 - 04 spread changed both on a daily and weekly basis. The basis of 02 also changed. For example, on a daily basis, the 02 - 03 spread was 94 (-10), and on a weekly basis, it was 119 (+7) [1]. - **Overseas Market Data**: FEI and CP paper prices rose on January 6. The January CP official prices for propane and butane were higher than before. The FEI - MOPJ spread was - 15 (down 5.5 from the previous period). East China propane arrival premium, AFEI, Middle East, and US propane January FOB premiums also changed [1].