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LPG早报-20251009
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-10-09 01:05
| | | | | | | LPG早报 | | | | 研究中心能化团队 2025/10/09 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | L P G | | | | | | | | | | | | | 日期 | 华南液化气 | 华东液化 气 | 山东液化气 | 丙烷CFR华 南 | 丙烷CIF日 本 | MB丙烷现 货 | CP预测合 同价 | 山东醚后碳四 | 山东烷基 化油 | 纸面进口利 润 | 主力基差 | | 2025/09/2 4 | 4600 | 4387 | 4550 | 587 | 538 | 72 | 544 | 4630 | 7680 | -209 | 242 | | 2025/09/2 5 | 4600 | 4387 | 4570 | 583 | 530 | 72 | 540 | 4620 | 7680 | -179 | 220 | | 2025/09/2 6 | 4650 | 4393 | 4580 | 584 | 532 | 73 | 543 | 4620 | 76 ...
LPG早报-20250930
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-09-30 01:23
| | | | | | | LPG早报 | | | | 研究中心能化团队 2025/09/30 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | L P G | | | | | | | | | | | | | 日期 | 华南液化气 | 华东液化 气 | 山东液化气 | 丙烷CFR华 南 | 丙烷CIF日 本 | MB丙烷现 货 | CP预测合 同价 | 山东醚后碳四 | 山东烷基 化油 | 纸面进口利 润 | 主力基差 | | 2025/09/2 3 | 4600 | 4385 | 4550 | 590 | 540 | 71 | 544 | 4670 | 7680 | -220 | 250 | | 2025/09/2 4 | 4600 | 4387 | 4550 | 587 | 538 | 72 | 544 | 4630 | 7680 | -209 | 242 | | 2025/09/2 5 | 4600 | 4387 | 4570 | 583 | 530 | 72 | 540 | 4620 | 76 ...
LPG早报-20250929
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-09-29 01:15
| | | | | | | LPG早报 | | | | 研究中心能化团队 2025/09/29 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | L P G | | | | | | | | | | | | | 日期 | 华南液化气 | 华东液化 气 | 山东液化气 | 丙烷CFR华 南 | 丙烷CIF日 本 | MB丙烷现 货 | CP预测合 同价 | 山东醚后碳四 | 山东烷基 化油 | 纸面进口利 润 | 主力基差 | | 2025/09/2 2 | 4640 | 4385 | 4550 | 590 | 536 | 71 | 544 | 4680 | 7680 | -181 | 211 | | 2025/09/2 3 | 4600 | 4385 | 4550 | 590 | 540 | 71 | 544 | 4670 | 7680 | -220 | 250 | | 2025/09/2 4 | 4600 | 4387 | 4550 | 587 | 538 | 72 | 544 | 4630 | 76 ...
南华期货2025年LPG四季度展望:供应有韧性,需求待考验
Nan Hua Qi Huo· 2025-09-28 13:03
南华期货2025年LPG四季度展望 ——供应有韧性,需求待考验 戴一帆(投资咨询资格证号:Z0015428) 沈玮玮(期货从业证书:F03140197 ) 交易咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1290号 第一章、核心观点 观点总结 三季度国内PG价格呈现先抑后扬的形态,受到疲软的基本面及巨量仓单的影响。展望四季度,我们认为海内 外供应依然具有韧性,而需求端的考验相对更大。在四季度我们认为需要重点关注以下几个方面: 1)供应端:美国在高产量高库存下或仍能维持较高的出口水平,冬季可能的极端天气及中美贸易的走向对其 价格及贸易流向产生影响;中东端目前看出口总量相对稳定,OPEC+政策及实际的增产情况将对未来出口产 生影响,考虑到四季度也是其相对的消费旺季,更倾向于持稳或小幅增量;国内也倾向于维持较高的产量水 平,风险在于利润带来的扰动。 2)需求端:印度传统的消费旺季仍能维持其较高的进口水平,但增量预期有限;日本更多的是季节性带来的 需求增量;韩国的扰动在PN价差及相对的裂解利润带来的裂解需求波动;国内化工需求有见顶回落的预期, 燃烧需求难言超季节性的需求。 价格区间 综合考虑内外的供需情况,我们认为四季度价格区 ...
LPG早报-20250926
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-09-26 00:55
Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report The LPG market is expected to remain weak overall. The cheapest delivery location is Shandong, where the supply is abundant due to incoming resources, while the chemical demand is declining [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Contents - **Price Changes**: - **Daily Changes**: On Thursday, the low - end price in East China was 4387 (+0), in Shandong was 4570 (+20), and in South China was 4600 (+0). The price of ether - post carbon four was 4620 (-10). The lowest delivery location was East China, with a basis of 7 (-55) and a 10 - 11 month spread of 113 (+33). FEI and CP c1 decreased to 550 (-3) and 544 (-3) dollars/ton respectively. The FEI monthly spread remained unchanged at 6 dollars, and the CP monthly spread dropped to -14.5 dollars (-3.5) [1]. - **Weekly Changes**: The PG main contract fluctuated strongly. The cheapest delivery product was Shandong civil gas at 4500. The basis weakened to 51 (-74). The 10 - 11 month spread was 49 (-20), the 11 - 12 month spread was 62 (+3). The number of warehouse receipts was 13002 (-6). The external market price increased. The internal - external price difference decreased slightly: PG - CP to 75 (-3); PG - FEI to 67.6 (-9.3). The FEI - CP was 7.5 (+6.5). The US - Asia arbitrage window closed [1]. - **Market Conditions**: - **Supply and Demand**: Incoming shipments decreased, external sales increased slightly, but demand narrowed, leading to an increase in both port and factory inventories. Chemical demand decreased, with the PDH operating rate at 70.49% (-2.61). The operating rates of alkylation and MTBE both declined [1]. - **Profitability**: The profit of PDH to PP continued to weaken, and the production gross margins of alkylated oil and MTBE were low [1]. - **Shipping and Spreads**: Freight rates continued to rise, with the latest rates from the US Gulf to Japan at 155 (+11) and from the Middle East to the Far East at 82 (+7). The FEI - MOPJ was -41.5 (-6.5), and the naphtha spread strengthened [1].
LPG早报-20250925
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-09-25 00:58
以上内容所依据的信息均来源于交易所、媒体及资讯公司等发布的公开资料或通过合法授权渠道向发布人取得的资讯,我们力求分析及建议内 容的客观、公正,研究方法专业审慎,分析结论合理,但公司对信息来源的准确性和完整性不作任何保证,也不保证所依据的信息和建议不会 发生任何变化。且全部分析及建议内容仅供参考,不构成对您的任何投资建议及入市依据,客户应当自主做出期货交易决策,独立承担期货交 易后果,凡据此入市者,我公司不承担任何责任。未经公司授权,不得随意转载、复制、传播本网站中所有研究分析报告、行情分析视频等全 部或部分材料、内容。对可能因互联网软硬件设备故障或失灵、或因不可抗力造成的全部或部分信息中断、延迟、遗漏、误导或造成资料传输 或储存上的错误、或遭第三人侵入系统篡改或伪造变造资料等,我们均不承担任何责任。 | | LPG早报 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | | | | | ...
LPG早报-20250924
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-09-24 00:50
Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2) Core View of the Report The LPG market is expected to remain weak overall. The decline in South China prices is mainly due to the impact of the typhoon, which led to the near - stagnation of exports and some refineries reducing prices to clear inventories. With an increase in port and factory inventories, a decline in chemical demand, and sufficient supply in Shandong, the market is under pressure [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Contents Price Changes - **Domestic Spot Prices**: On Tuesday, the low - end price in East China was 4385 (+0), in Shandong it was 4550 (+0), and in South China it was 4600 (-40). The price of ether - after carbon four was 4670 (-10). The South China price decrease was due to the typhoon impact [1]. - **International Prices**: FEI and CP changed little. As of 2:30 pm, FEI was 549 (+1) and CP was 543 (+0) dollars/ton. The FEI monthly spread remained at 5 dollars, and the CP monthly spread was - 11 [1]. - **Futures Prices**: The PG main contract fluctuated strongly. The cheapest deliverable was Shandong civil gas at 4500. The basis weakened to 51 (-74), the 10 - 11 monthly spread was 49 (-20), and the 11 - 12 monthly spread was 62 (+3) [1]. Market Indicators - **Basis and Spread**: The basis of the lowest delivery area in East China was 60 (+19), and the 10 - 11 monthly spread was 70 (+0). The internal - external price difference decreased slightly. The PG - CP was 75 (-3), the PG - FEI was 67.6 (-9.3), and the FEI - CP was 7.5 (+6.5) [1]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: There were 13002 warehouse receipts (-6), with Shanghai Yuchi decreasing by 1 and Donghua decreasing by 5 [1]. - **Freight**: Freight continued to rise. The freight from the US Gulf to Japan was 155 (+11), and from the Middle East to the Far East was 82 (+7) [1]. Supply and Demand - **Supply**: Incoming shipments decreased, and external shipments increased slightly, but demand narrowed, leading to an increase in both port and factory inventories [1]. - **Demand**: Chemical demand declined. The PDH operating rate was 70.49% (-2.61). The operating rates of alkylation and MTBE also decreased [1].
LPG早报-20250919
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-09-19 01:06
Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints - The overall LPG market is expected to remain weak. The domestic market has declined significantly, with the basis weakening. The external market prices have risen, and the internal - external price difference has decreased slightly. The chemical demand has declined, and the supply is abundant in Shandong, the cheapest delivery location [1]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Price and Basis - **Domestic Prices**: The low - end price in East China is 4462 (-20), in Shandong is 4530 (-10), and in South China is 4610 (+25). The post - ether carbon four is 4700 (+0). The lowest delivery location is East China [1]. - **Basis and Spreads**: The basis of the PG main contract has weakened to 51 (-74). The 10 - 11 month spread is 49 (-20), and the 11 - 12 month spread is 62 (+3) [1]. External Market and Price Differences - **External Market Prices**: FEI and CP are 553.05 (-6) and 547.55 (-2.45) dollars/ton respectively. The FEI monthly spread has decreased by 1 to - 6 dollars, and the CP monthly spread is - 11 [1]. - **Internal - External Price Differences**: PG - CP is 75 (-3); PG - FEI is 67.6 (-9.3). FEI - CP is 7.5 (+6.5). The US - Asia arbitrage window is closed [1]. Market Conditions and Demand - **Market Conditions**: The external market prices have risen, and the internal - external price difference has decreased slightly. The freight rates have continued to rise [1]. - **Demand**: Chemical demand has declined. The PDH operating rate is 70.49% (-2.61), and the operating rates of alkylation and MTBE have also decreased [1]. Inventory and Supply - **Inventory**: Port inventory and factory inventory have both increased. Incoming shipments have decreased, and external shipments have slightly increased, but demand has narrowed [1]. - **Supply**: Shandong, the cheapest delivery location, has abundant supply due to incoming resources [1].
LPG早报-20250918
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-09-18 01:30
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content. 2. Core View of the Report - The LPG market shows complex changes. The domestic market has seen significant price increases, with the basis weakening and monthly spreads changing. The external market prices have risen, and the profit of PDH - made PP has continued to weaken. The supply and demand situation is such that imports have decreased, external sales have slightly increased, but demand has narrowed, leading to an increase in both port and factory inventories. The chemical demand has declined, and the overall market is expected to remain weak [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Data Price Data - **Domestic Prices**: On September 17, 2025, the prices in different regions were as follows: the price in East China was 4482 (-17), in Shandong was 4540 (+0), and in South China was 4585 (+35). The price of ether - after carbon four was 4700 (-20). The lowest delivery location was East China [1]. - **Contract - related Data**: The PG main contract fluctuated strongly. The cheapest delivery product was Shandong civil gas at 4500. The basis weakened to 51 (-74). The 10 - 11 monthly spread was 49 (-20), and the 11 - 12 monthly spread was 62 (+3). The number of warehouse receipts was 13002 hands (-6) [1]. - **External Market Prices**: FEI and CP were 559 (+2) and 550 (+0) US dollars/ton respectively. The FEI monthly spread remained at - 5, and the CP monthly spread remained at - 11. The external market prices rose, with the FEI - CP spread at 7.5 (+6.5). The US - Asia arbitrage window was closed [1]. Market Spread and Margin Data - **Basis and Spread**: The basis weakened, and the monthly spreads showed different changes. For example, the 10 - 11 monthly spread changed by +14, and the 11 - 12 monthly spread changed by +3. The internal - external spread decreased slightly, with PG - CP at 75 (-3) and PG - FEI at 67.6 (-9.3) [1]. - **Profit Margin**: The profit of PDH - made PP continued to weaken, and the production gross margins of alkylated oil and MTBE were low [1]. Shipping and Inventory Data - **Shipping**: Freight rates continued to rise, with the latest freight from the US Gulf to Japan at 155 (+11) and from the Middle East to the Far East at 82 (+7) [1]. - **Inventory**: Imports decreased, external sales increased slightly, but demand narrowed, resulting in an increase in both port and factory inventories [1].
LPG早报-20250917
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-09-17 00:54
Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2) Core View of the Report - The LPG market is expected to remain weak overall. The cheapest delivery location is Shandong, where the supply is abundant due to incoming resources, while the chemical demand is declining [1]. 3) Summary According to Relevant Information Price and Basis - **Domestic Prices**: On September 17, 2025, the prices in East China were 4499 (-5), in Shandong were 4540 (+10), and in South China were 4550 (+10). The price of ether - post - carbon four was 4720 (-70). The lowest delivery location was East China [1]. - **Basis and Spreads**: The basis of the PG main contract weakened to 51 (-74). The 10 - 11 month spread was 49 (-20), and the 11 - 12 month spread was 62 (+3) [1]. - **External Prices**: FEI and CP were 561 (+3) and 552 (+2) dollars/ton respectively. The FEI month spread decreased slightly to -5, and the CP month spread decreased to -11. The external prices increased, with the FEI month spread +1, the MB month spread unchanged, and the CP month spread -2.5 [1]. - **Internal - External Price Difference**: The internal - external price difference decreased slightly. PG - CP was 75 (-3); PG - FEI was 67.6 (-9.3). FEI - CP was 7.5 (+6.5). The US - Asia arbitrage window was closed [1]. Inventory and Demand - **Inventory**: Port inventory and factory inventory both increased. Incoming shipments decreased, while outward shipments increased slightly, but demand narrowed [1]. - **Demand**: Chemical demand declined. The PDH operating rate was 70.49% (-2.61). The operating rates of alkylation and MTBE both decreased [1]. Profitability - **Production Profits**: The profit of PDH to produce PP continued to weaken, and the production gross margins of alkylated oil and MTBE were low [1]. Freight - Freight rates continued to rise. The latest freight from the US Gulf to Japan was 155 (+11), and from the Middle East to the Far East was 82 (+7) [1].