丨证券研究报告丨 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 公司公布 2025 年半年度报告，2025 年上半年实现营业收入 162.83 亿元，同比增长 13.28%； 归母净利润 0.66 亿元，同比下降 39.80%；扣非归母净利润 0.35 亿元，同比下降 31.06%。其 中 2025 年第二季度实现营业收入 83.03 亿元，同比增长 14.36%，环比增长 4.06%；归母净利 润 0.14 亿元，同比下降 74.70%，环比下降 73.77%；扣非归母净利润 0.03 亿元，同比下降 86.41%，环比下降 89.20%。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 魏凯 侯彦飞 SAC：S0490520080009 SAC：S0490521050002 SFC：BUT964 SFC：BVN517 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% 公司研究丨点评报告丨东华能源（002221.SZ） [Table_Title] PDH 景气度承压，碳纤维项目稳步推进 %% %% research.95579.com 1 东华能源（002221.SZ） cjzqdt11111 [Table_Title2 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] Core Views - The company is expected to maintain stable operations by compensating for price declines with increased volume, supported by new projects that will drive growth [1] - Despite a decline in revenue and net profit in the first half of 2025, the company has shown resilience in production and sales volume, with significant capacity expansions completed [5] - The company has a strong capital expenditure plan, with investments exceeding 100 billion yuan annually since 2018, ensuring long-term growth potential [5] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue for 2025 is projected at 1,988.63 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 9.2% [2] - Net profit for 2025 is estimated at 135.19 billion yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 3.7% [2] - Earnings per share (EPS) is expected to be 4.31 yuan for 2025, with a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 15 [2] - The company reported a total revenue of 909.01 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, down 6.35% year-on-year, with a net profit of 61.23 billion yuan, down 25.10% year-on-year [5] - The overall gross margin for the first half of 2025 was 13.84%, a decrease of 2.57 percentage points year-on-year [5] Capacity Expansion and New Projects - The company has completed significant capacity expansions, including the MDI facility in Fujian, which increased capacity from 400,000 tons/year to 800,000 tons/year, and the new ethylene project in Yantai with a capacity of 1.2 million tons/year [5] - New projects in high-performance materials and other segments are expected to contribute to future growth [5] Financial Ratios and Projections - The company’s debt-to-asset ratio is projected to be 61.7% in 2025, indicating a stable financial structure [6] - Return on equity (ROE) is expected to be 11.8% in 2025, reflecting the company's ability to generate profit from shareholders' equity [6] - The net profit margin is projected to be 7.2% in 2025, indicating profitability despite market challenges [6]

Core Viewpoint - The international LPG market has experienced a period of weak decline, but domestic chemical demand, particularly for propane and butane, has provided support, stabilizing prices in the range of $555-565 per ton [1][3]. Group 1: Domestic Chemical Demand - Strong domestic chemical demand has significantly supported the LPG market, with notable increases in the deep processing demand for propane and butane [3]. - The average operating rate of domestic PDH (Propane Dehydrogenation) units rose above 70% in July and further increased to over 73% in early August, indicating a recovery in propane demand [3]. - The profitability of domestic PDH units remains favorable, encouraging higher operational rates [3]. Group 2: Butane Demand - Butane demand has also been robust, playing a crucial role in supporting the international market, with increased imports alleviating supply pressures and even causing shortages in some regions [5]. - The operating rate of domestic isobutane dehydrogenation units has rebounded to over 73% in August after hitting a low in May, supported by nearly one million tons of new capacity from companies like Kaiyi and Yuxin [5]. - In July, the loading volume of domestic butane pressure vessels reached 29,600 tons, accounting for 14.08% of the total loading volume, reflecting a significant increase of over 10 percentage points from June [5]. Group 3: Market Outlook - The strong chemical demand for propane and butane has not only supported the international LPG market but also alleviated domestic sales pressure, with a noticeable slowdown in the decline of residential gas prices in August [7]. - Future demand for propane remains strong, driven by PDH and ethylene units, while butane demand is expected to remain high, although the profitability of isobutane dehydrogenation may negatively impact future demand [7]. - As summer transitions to fall, there is potential for a rebound in combustion demand, which could further boost LPG demand [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Price**: This week, FEI M1 closed at $529/ton (+$2.72), with a premium of -$21.75/ton. The spot price remained under pressure. CP closed at $524/ton (+$2), with a premium of -$25/ton. MB M1 closed at $366/ton (-$3). The domestic PG2509 closed at 3,923 yuan/ton (+124 yuan), and the 09 basis was 375 (+82). The price difference between CP and FEI M1 further narrowed to -$6.82/ton [1]. - **Domestic Supply**: As of Thursday this week, the operating rate of major refineries was 81.55% (+0.34%). Qilu Petrochemical started operations, and Daxie Petrochemical increased its load. The estimated refinery profit was 976.96 yuan/ton, due to the decrease in crude oil costs. The operating rate of independent refineries was 48.20% (+0.04%), with Haike Ruilin increasing its load and Dongming Petrochemical undergoing maintenance. The utilization rate excluding large - scale refineries was 44.36% (-0.54%). The domestic LPG sales volume was 52.65 tons (+0.16 tons). Haike Ruilin and Hualian Petrochemical restarted this period. Zhongmei Mengda plans to resume production in early August, and Qicheng Petrochemical has a maintenance plan. The commercial volume of ether - after C4 was 17.74 tons (+0.24 tons), which was seasonally high. Longzhong's arrival data showed that 80.98 tons arrived this week (+32 tons), and the 4 - week average arrival volume remained high [1]. - **Domestic Demand**: In terms of chemical demand this period, the PDH operating rate decreased slightly due to new maintenance, the alkylation operating rate changed little, and the MTBE operating rate decreased slightly due to new maintenance. For civil gas, it was still in the off - season of consumption, and the overall demand was weak [2]. - **Domestic Inventory**: The factory inventory was 18.08 tons (-0.35 tons). This week, the factory inventory decreased slightly for the first time recently, but the overall factory inventory was still high. Longzhong showed that the arrival volume this week increased compared with last week, and the 4 - week average was high. The port inventory was 313.44 tons (+9.36 tons), and the inventory fluctuated at a high level [3]. - **Overseas Situation**: In the United States this week, C3 production remained at a high level, demand improved from a low level, and the 4 - week average increased significantly. It was still in the inventory accumulation cycle, but the inventory accumulation slowed down in recent weeks. Kpler showed that the US LPG exports in June were 5,969 KT (+300 KT), of which only 458 KT (+129 KT) were sent to China, while the volume sent to Japan increased to 1,332 KT (+223 KT). Middle - East LPG exports in June were 3,698 KT (-515 KT), of which 1,281 KT (-518 KT) were exported to China and 1,662 KT (+232 KT) to India [6]. - **Overall View**: This period, crude oil was strongly influenced by geopolitical issues and showed a strong upward trend. On Friday, affected by the US non - farm payrolls data, international oil prices dropped significantly. At the same time, the domestic policy sentiment also weakened, and the futures market declined sharply. For LPG, the prices of both domestic and international markets fluctuated weakly compared with crude oil, and the price ratio decreased. The CP propane price in August decreased by $55 to $520/ton compared with July. Despite high exports, the international market remained under pressure. The domestic supply side remained loose, the combustion demand was weak, and the chemical demand changed little this period. From the supply side, the operating rate of major refineries was stable this week, and the commercial volume increased slightly due to the resumption of production of some enterprises. In terms of imports, the arrival volume rebounded this week, and the arrival volumes in recent weeks were generally high, and the port inventory remained at a high level. From the demand side, the overall PDH operating rate increased significantly due to the resumption of production of some devices this week. Although it decreased slightly due to the shutdown of Bohua, there are still some start - up plans in August, which will support the demand for LPG to a certain extent. In addition, the MTBE exports still provided short - term support, and the alkylation oil changed little. Overall, the LPG market remained in a loose situation [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Core Data - **Supply**: The operating rate of major refineries was 81.55% (previous week: 81.21%, +0.34%); the operating rate of independent refineries was 48.2% (previous week: 48.16%, +0.04%); the domestic LPG commercial sales volume was 52.65 tons (previous week: 52.49 tons, +0.16 tons); the arrival volume (Kpler) was 1,017.55 tons (previous week: 640.95 tons, +376.6 tons); the arrival volume (LZ) was 81 tons (previous week: 49 tons, +32 tons) [8]. - **Demand**: The PDH operating rate was 72.63% (previous week: 73.13%, -0.5%); the MTBE operating rate was 66.18% (previous week: 67.85%, -1.67%); the alkylation oil operating rate was 46.56% (previous week: 46.36%, +0.20%); the sales - to - production ratio in East China was 103% (previous week: 99%, +4%); the sales - to - production ratio in South China was 100% (previous week: 93%, +7%) [8]. - **Inventory**: The factory inventory was 18.08 tons (previous week: 18.43 tons, -0.35 tons); the port inventory was 313.44 tons (previous week: 304.08 tons, +9.36 tons) [8]. - **US Situation**: C3 production was 2,822 (previous week: 2,845, -23); C3 demand was 1,089 (previous week: 438, +651); C3 inventory was 83,477 (previous week: 82,849, +628); the shipping volume (Kpler) was 1,265.32 tons (previous week: 1,440.41 tons, -175.09 tons) [8]. - **Middle - East Situation**: The shipping volume (Kpler) was 690.89 tons (previous week: 977.79 tons, -286.9 tons) [8]. - **Price and Valuation**: Brent was $69.52/barrel (previous week: $68.39/barrel, +$1.13); FEI M1 was $529.82/ton (previous week: $527.10/ton, +$2.72); CP M1 was $524/ton (previous week: $522/ton, +$2); MB M1 was $0.70/ton (previous week: $0.71/ton, -$0.01); NWE C3 M1 was $455.6/ton (previous week: $454/ton, +$1.6); the price difference between FEI and CP M1 was $5.82 (previous week: $5.10, +$0.72); the price difference between CP and MB M1 was $157.49 (previous week: $152.45, +$5.04); the main LPG futures contract was 3,965 yuan/ton (previous week: 4,047 yuan/ton, -82 yuan); the price of the cheapest LPG deliverable was 4,340 yuan/ton (unchanged) [8]. 3.2 Price and Profit Data - **Price Data**: It includes the prices of various crude oils, LPG, and related products, as well as their price differences, month - to - month spreads, and price - to - price ratios. For example, Brent was $71.78/barrel (previous day: $72.75/barrel, -$0.97, previous week: $69.36/barrel, +$2.42); FEI C3 M1 was $526.88/ton (previous day: $530.96/ton, -$4.08, previous week: $530.18/ton, -$3.31) [11]. - **Profit Data**: It includes the盘面 profit and spot profit of various processes, such as the LPG import盘面 profit (FEI: -654.50 yuan/ton, previous day: -602.12 yuan/ton, -52.38 yuan, previous week: -627.55 yuan/ton, -26.95 yuan; CP: -259.40 yuan/ton, previous day: -169.23 yuan/ton, -90.17 yuan, previous week: -237.03 yuan/ton, -22.37 yuan), and the Asian naphtha cracking profit (-41.5404 dollars/ton, previous day: -39.51 dollars/ton, +1.07 dollars, previous week: -39.51 dollars/ton, -2.03 dollars) [11]. 3.3 LPG Domestic Supply and Demand - **Domestic Weekly Supply and Demand Data**: The operating rate of major refineries was 81.55% (previous week: 81.21%, +0.34%); the operating rate of independent refineries was 48.2% (previous week: 48.16%, +0.04%); the LPG commercial volume was 52.65 tons (previous week: 52.49 tons, +0.16 tons); the PDH operating rate was 73.58% (previous week: 75.30%, -1.72%); the MTBE operating rate was 66.18% (previous week: 67.85%, -1.67%); the alkylation oil operating rate was 46.56% (previous week: 46.36%, +0.1985%) [76]. - **Refinery Operating Rate**: The operating rate of major refineries showed a seasonal high, and the operating rate of Shandong independent refineries also changed slightly [77][79]. - **LPG Arrival Volume**: The weekly arrival volume of Chinese LPG showed a seasonal pattern, and the arrival volume increased this week [80][81]. - **Domestic Commercial Volume**: The commercial volume of LPG in China showed a seasonal pattern, and the industrial and civil LPG commercial volumes also had corresponding changes [82][84]. - **C3 Chemical Demand - PDH**: The PDH operating rate rebounded, and some devices had maintenance and restart plans [89]. - **C4 Chemical Demand**: It includes the demand and operating rates of MTBE and alkylation oil. The MTBE operating rate decreased slightly, and the alkylation oil operating rate increased slightly [93][104]. - **Combustion Demand**: The sales - to - production ratios of LPG in East China and South China increased, while that in Shandong was relatively low [115][116]. - **LPG Factory Inventory**: The factory inventory decreased slightly this week, but the overall inventory was still high [117][118]. - **LPG Port Inventory**: The port inventory increased, and the inventory remained at a high level [125][126]. - **Imports and Exports (Kpler)**: The weekly total imports of Chinese LPG showed a seasonal pattern, and the imports from the United States and the Middle East also changed [132][137]. 3.4 LPG US Supply and Demand - **Weekly Supply and Demand Situation**: The US refinery operating rate showed a seasonal pattern. The C3 production decreased slightly, the demand increased, and the inventory increased [144][147]. - **Monthly Supply and Demand Situation**: The monthly production, demand, and inventory of US propane also showed seasonal patterns [159][160]. - **Imports and Exports (Kpler)**: The weekly total exports of US LPG showed a seasonal pattern, and the exports to different regions also changed [161][170]. - **Panama Canal Situation**: The water level of the Panama Canal's Gatun Lake and the number of ships waiting to pass through the locks showed seasonal patterns [171][173]. 3.5 LPG South Korea and Japan Supply and Demand - **South Korea Supply and Demand**: The production, demand, inventory, imports, and exports of South Korea's LPG and propane all showed seasonal patterns [174][185]. - **Japan Supply and Demand**: The production, demand, inventory, imports, and exports of Japan's LPG also showed seasonal patterns [190][194]. 3.6 LPG Middle - East Supply and Demand - **By Exporting Country (Kpler)**: The total exports of Middle - East LPG, the exports of different countries (such as the UAE, Iran, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and Kuwait), and the exports to China all showed seasonal patterns [199][205]. - **By Destination**: The exports of Middle - East LPG to China, India, and Southeast Asia showed seasonal patterns [206][207]. - **By Export Terminal**: The exports of LPG from different export terminals (such as Ruwais in the UAE, Ras Laffan in Qatar, Mina Al - Ahmadi in Kuwait, and Ras Tanura in Saudi Arabia) showed seasonal patterns [208][211]. 3.7 LPG India Supply and Demand - **Supply and Demand Situation**: The production, demand, imports, and exports of Indian LPG showed seasonal patterns [216][219].

商 品 研 究 2025 年 7 月 25 日 LPG：外盘支撑走强，内盘仍有修复空间 研 究 所 期货研究 | 陈鑫超 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020238 | chenxinchao@gtht.com | | --- | --- | --- | | 【基本面跟踪】 | | | LPG 基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | PG2509 | 4,023 | 1.41% | 4,037 | 0.35% | | 期货 | PG2510 | 4,456 | 1.48% | 4,461 | 0.11% | | | | 昨日成交 | 较前日变动 | 昨日持仓 | 较前日变动 | | | PG2509 | 100,180 | -1582 | 88,522 | -3742 | | | PG2510 | 23,707 | 3001 | 54,714 | 160 | | | | 昨日价差 | | 前日价差 | | | 价差 | 广州国产气对09合约价差 | 507 | | 583 | | | | ...

Group 1 - The petrochemical industry in China is facing structural overcapacity challenges due to peak demand and declining refined oil needs, leading to excess refining capacity and overproduction of chemicals like ethylene and aromatics [1] - The average profit percentile for major chemical products in the first half of 2025 is expected to be below 50%, with PDH profits dropping to a historical low of 0% [1] - The industry needs to eliminate outdated capacity and tighten new project approvals to achieve high-quality transformation [1] Group 2 - The refining sector is experiencing peak demand and decline in refined oil, necessitating a net elimination of capacity during the 14th Five-Year Plan, rather than just controlling new capacity [2] - The ethylene sector is facing overcapacity due to new oil conversion capacities and requires control over new capacity and project approvals, as well as the elimination of small projects that do not meet energy and carbon standards [2] - Unlike coal, which may not have absolute overcapacity but requires control over operating rates, the petrochemical sector is experiencing overcapacity that necessitates capacity reduction and new project approval controls [2]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report - The LPG market shows complex trends, with civil gas prices rising first and then falling. The PG futures price fluctuates widely, the basis strengthens, and the spread between months changes little. The external market price weakens significantly, and the oil - gas ratio first suppresses and then rises. The import price drops significantly, and the profit of PDH production improves slightly. It is expected that the operating rates of PDH and alkylation will rise slightly next week, the combustion demand remains weak, and the subsequent price will generally stabilize [1]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Daily Data - From June 22 - 27, 2025, prices of various LPG - related products such as South China LPG, East China LPG, Shandong LPG, etc., show different trends. For example, South China LPG price changes from 4695 on June 22 to 4710 on June 27, with a daily change of - 45 on the 27th. The cheapest deliverable is Shandong civil gas at 4590. The 08 - 09 spread of PG is 94, and the US - to - Far - East arbitrage window is closed [1]. Weekly View - Civil gas prices rise first and then fall. The market is bullish at the beginning of the week due to geopolitical tensions, but then is under pressure as overall supply is high, high prices are resisted by downstream, and the easing of the Middle East situation leads to a sharp drop in oil prices. The basis of PG strengthens to 345. The external market price weakens significantly, and the oil - gas ratio first suppresses and then rises. The import price drops significantly, the profit of PDH spot production improves, and the profit calculated by paper goods rises. The profit of alkylation oil increases significantly, the profit of MTBE gas - fraction etherification remains basically flat, and the profit of isomerization etherification rises. In terms of fundamentals, port inventories increase due to more arrivals, factory inventories increase slightly with regional differentiation (East China destocks, South China and Shandong build up inventories), and external sales increase. The operating rate of PDH rises to 70.54% (+4.33 pct), and the operating rate of alkylation is 46.02% (-1.84 pct), with MTBE production basically flat. The number of registered warrants is 8358 (+0) [1].

期货交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1285号 华联期货液化气周报 ——库存继续回落 20250622 黎照锋 交易咨询号：Z0000088 从业资格号：F0210135 0769-22110802 审核：陈小国 交易咨询号：Z0021111 1 主要观点 2 期现市场 3 库存端 4 供给端 5 需求端 周度观点 u 上游：中东局势升级提振油价大幅反弹。基本面OPEC+实际产量低于其声称的声量。货币贬值之下黄金强势以及地缘局 势复杂仍为油价带来支撑。 u 供应：关税降低后，预料国内将积极补库；市场此前对于美国市场缺口也在积极寻求第三方的进口替代，也增加了潜在 供应。国产商品量边际走低，仍低于去年水平。竞品LNG价格与LPG基本持平。海运费低位反弹。 u 库存：库存继续回落，港口库容率回落至近年区间低位。炼厂库容率处于多年同期最低位置，加气站库容率相对偏高； 库存量：港口库存量回落。 u 需求：宏观需求偏弱。燃烧需求处于淡季，汽油消费量处于近四年低位，餐饮消费尚可但近月将面临禁止公费吃喝增量 政策的影响。化工需求反弹，PDH周度产能利用率继续反弹但仍然处于多年区间最低，毛利再度回落；烷基化产能利用 率反 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report points out that due to the escalation of geopolitical conflicts, the risk of the LPG futures market has increased. The LPG trend strength is neutral, with a value of 0 [1][7]. 3. Summary by Content LPG Fundamental Data - **Futures Prices and Trading Volume**: The closing price of PG2507 yesterday was 4,342 with a daily increase of 4.85%, and the night - session closing price was 4,329 with a decrease of 0.30%. The closing price of PG2508 yesterday was 4,251 with a daily increase of 5.56%, and the night - session closing price was 4,235 with a decrease of 0.38%. The trading volume of PG2507 yesterday was 174,549, an increase of 130,234 compared to the previous day, and the position was 42,156, a decrease of 5,892. The trading volume of PG2508 yesterday was 80,381, an increase of 68,446 compared to the previous day, and the position was 50,623, an increase of 1,536 [2]. - **Price Spreads**: The spread between Guangzhou domestic gas and the 07 contract was 378 yesterday, down from 579 the day before. The spread between Guangzhou imported gas and the 07 contract was 458 yesterday, down from 659 the day before [2]. - **Industry Chain开工率data**: The PDH开工率 this week was 64.3%, up from 63.0% last week. The MTBE开工率 was 59.7%, up from 54.7%, and the alkylation开工率 was 48.2%, up from 45.7% [2]. Market Information - **Saudi CP Expectations**: On June 12, 2025, the expected price of propane in the July Saudi CP was 586 dollars/ton, up 3 dollars/ton from the previous trading day; the expected price of butane was 556 dollars/ton, up 3 dollars/ton. The expected price of propane in the August Saudi CP was 569 dollars/ton, up 3 dollars/ton from the previous trading day; the expected price of butane was 539 dollars/ton, up 3 dollars/ton [9]. - **Domestic PDH Device Maintenance Plan**: Multiple companies' PDH devices are under maintenance, such as Puyang Far - East Technology Co., Ltd. (15 units of capacity, maintenance started on May 12, 2023, end time to be determined), Jiangsu Yanchang Zhongran Chemical Co., Ltd. (60 units of capacity, maintenance from late November 2023 to July 2025), etc. [8]. - **Domestic Liquefied Gas Factory Device Maintenance Plan**: Many domestic liquefied gas factories are undergoing maintenance, such as Shengli Heavy Oil Factory in Shandong (full - plant maintenance, normal production of 400 tons/7, loss of 400 tons/7, from June 16, 2025, to mid - August 2025), etc. [10].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View The fundamentals of the LPG market are marginally improving but still under pressure, with significant geopolitical risks, and cautious operation is recommended [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Market Price Data - From 2025/06/09 to 2025/06/13, prices of South China LPG, East China LPG, Shandong LPG, propane CFR South China, etc. showed various changes. For example, South China LPG increased from 4570 to 4640, with a daily change of +10; propane CFR South China increased from 596 to 615, with a daily change of +20 [1]. - In the civil gas segment, prices in Shandong increased by 30 to 4650, in East China by 111 to 4603, and in South China by 80 to 4710; ether - post - carbon four increased by 120 to 4950; the cheapest deliverable was East China civil gas at 4492 [1]. Profit and Spread - PDH production profit deteriorated, FEI production profit was lower than CP; alkylation oil profitability decreased significantly; MTBE gas - fractionation etherification profit increased, while isomerization etherification profit decreased; FEI - MOPJ and naphtha crack spreads declined [1]. - PG 07 contract basis changed from - 130 to 221; 07 - 09 monthly spread changed from - 6 to 195; PG - CP reached 18 US dollars (+27), FEI - CP reached - 19 (+31) [1]. Fundamentals - Port inventory and factory inventory both decreased. Arrivals and out - shipments declined, with expected subsequent increase in out - shipments and decrease in arrivals [1]. - Chemical demand improved overall. PDH operating rate increased to 64.3%, alkylation operating rate increased to 48.18%, and MTBE production also increased significantly [1]. Other Information - As temperatures rise, combustion demand is expected to decline [1]. - The number of registered warehouse receipts was 9005 lots (-335) [1].