商 品 研 究 2026 年 1 月 6 日 PP：1 月多套 PDH 计划检修，基差走强 周富强 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0023304 zhoufuqiang@gtht.com | LLDPE 基本面数据 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期 货 | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨跌 | 昨日成交 | 持仓变动 | | | PP2605 | 6330 | -0.28% | 374453 | 535 | | | | 昨日价差 | | 前日价差 | | | 基差月差变化 | 05合约基差 | -160 | | -208 | | | | 05-09合约价差 | -25 | | -20 | | | | | 昨日价格（元/吨） | | 前日价格（元/吨） | | | 重要现货价格 | 华 北 | 6180 | | 6060 | | | | 华 东 | 6170 | | 6140 | | | | 华 南 | 6260 | | 6230 | | 资料来源：卓创资讯，国泰君安期货 【现货消息】 节前国内 PP 市场部分小涨。节中南美地缘冲突加剧，提振油价预期， ...

国泰君安期货·能源化工 C3产业链周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所 日期：2026年1月4日 陈鑫超 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020238 赵书岑（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03147780 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint CONTENT 总结 01 LPG部分 02 丙烯部分 03 价格&价差 供应 需求&库存 价格&价差 平衡表 供应 需求 下游库存 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 2 | 注：节假日部分数据未更新 | | --- | 本周LPG观点：地缘因素扰动成本，关注下行驱动兑现 供应 成本方面，1月CP官价高开，部分提振市场情绪；国际市场供应方面，美国港口大雾天气装船延迟，叠加中东检修季，现货供应短期内维持偏 紧，但存在逐渐增量预期。 需求 民用燃烧方面，气温降低，燃烧需求回暖逐渐兑现；但供应充裕，民用表现乏力。C3方面，辽宁金发PDH装置停工，预计节后回归；滨华PDH装 置虽有短暂波动但迅速恢复，多套装置的交替变动对市场整体需求冲击有限。 观点 本周，受节假 ...

国泰君安期货·能源化工 C3产业链周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所 日期：2025年12月28日 陈鑫超 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020238 赵书岑（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03147780 2 本周LPG观点：短期供应偏紧，关注下行驱动兑现 供应 国产方面，液化气总商品量52.4万吨，较上周环比增加1.2%；其中，民用气商品量21.9万吨（+0.4%），醚后商品量16.8万吨（+1.3%）；当前， 国内民用气商品量低位修复至24年同期水平，而醚后碳四商品量高位回落至24年同期水平。成本方面，油价偏强整理，周尾收跌；国际市场供 应方面，美国港口大雾天气装船延迟，叠加中东现货供应维持偏紧，FEI、CP纸货周内仍维持偏强走势；需求方面，下游化工利润水平差，一 季度国内PDH检修计划较多。隆众口径，国际船期到港量21.9万吨，以华东为主。本周实际到港量继续减少，各地区锚地均出现待卸船舶，后 续到港不确定性增强；据监测，下周到船计划接近40万吨，或以华南为主。 需求 民用燃烧方面，气温降低，燃烧需求回暖逐渐兑现；但供应充裕，民用表现乏力。C3方面，滨华新材料（60）开工后陆续提负荷，PDH开工率 上涨1.4%至76 ...

商 品 研 究 2025 年 12 月 25 日 PP：PDH 利润再度压缩，盘面企稳震荡 周富强 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0023304 zhoufuqiang@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 LLDPE 基本面数据 | LLDPE 基本面数据 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期 货 | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨跌 | 昨日成交 | 持仓变动 | | | PP2605 | 6278 | 1.95% | 566939 | -18588 | | | | 昨日价差 | | 前日价差 | | | 基差月差变化 | 05合约基差 | -158 | | -138 | | | | 05-09合约价差 | -22 | | -38 | | | 重要现货价格 | | 昨日价格（元/吨） | | 前日价格（元/吨） | | | | 华 北 | 6020 | | 5980 | | | | 华 东 | 6120 | | 6020 | | | | 华 南 | 6220 | | 6170 | | 资料来源：卓创资讯，国泰君安期货 【现货消息】 期货盘面震荡反弹，但对 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The PP market is expected to continue its weak trend. The cost - end support from crude oil is limited, the supply - demand game of existing stocks intensifies before the 2605 contract, the downstream demand is weak, and the PDH profit has hit a new low. However, the upstream's willingness to cut production is not strong. Attention should be paid to the marginal changes of PDH plants under deep PDH losses [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing price of PP2605 was 6119, with a daily decline of 1.51%. The trading volume was 534747, and the position increased by 13836. The 05 - contract basis was - 119 (compared to - 143 the previous day), and the 05 - 09 contract spread was - 42 (compared to - 27 the previous day) [1] - **Spot Price Data**: The spot prices in North China, East China, and South China were 5960 yuan/ton, 6000 yuan/ton, and 6140 yuan/ton respectively, all lower than the previous day's prices [1] 3.2 Spot News - The futures market fluctuated. There was still a structural shortage of goods in some regions, but the trading atmosphere in the off - season was weak. The basis in Jiangsu and Zhejiang was at par, and there were still risk - free opportunities in Changzhou at certain stages. The warehouse receipts remained at a high level, and the follow - up of new downstream orders was insufficient. Some PDH plants plan to shut down in January, but the scale is not large. The year - end demand lacks flexibility, the industry's willingness to hold goods is limited in the continuous decline, and the basis is under pressure. The PP US - dollar market prices have partially declined, overseas suppliers' enthusiasm for offering to China is low, and downstream procurement is still based on rigid demand [1] 3.3 Market Condition Analysis - **Cost End**: Crude oil is expected to continue narrow - range fluctuations, providing limited cost support for PP. The chemical configuration in the market is differentiated, and the hedging logic between aromatics and olefins is continuously strengthened [2] - **Supply End**: There will be no new production before the 2605 contract, and the game between supply and demand of existing stocks intensifies [2] - **Demand End**: The follow - up of new downstream orders has weakened, and downstream factories are still cautious in purchasing, resulting in weak demand [2] 3.4 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of PP is 0 [3]

商 品 研 究 2025 年 12 月 22 日 PP：PDH 利润环比修复，趋势震荡偏弱 周富强 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0023304 zhoufuqiang@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 LLDPE 基本面数据 | LLDPE 基本面数据 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期 货 | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨跌 | 昨日成交 | 持仓变动 | | | PP2605 | 6213 | -1.05% | 459440 | 10464 | | | | 昨日价差 | | 前日价差 | | | 基差月差变化 | 05合约基差 | -143 | | -159 | | | | 05-09合约价差 | -27 | | -24 | | | 重要现货价格 | | 昨日价格（元/吨） | | 前日价格（元/吨） | | | | 华 北 | 6050 | | 6090 | | | | 华 东 | 6070 | | 6120 | | | | 华 南 | 6170 | | 6200 | | 资料来源：卓创资讯，国泰君安期货 【现货消息】 期货盘面震荡，部分区域 ...

南华期货LPG产业周报 ——近端仍有支撑，预期承压 戴一帆（投资咨询资格证号：Z0015428） 研究助理：沈玮玮（期货从业证书：F03140197 ） 联系邮箱：shenweiwei@nawaa.com 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 2025年12月21日 第一章 核心矛盾及策略建议 1.1 核心矛盾 当前影响LPG价格走势的核心矛盾有以下几点： 1）成本端原油市场震荡反复：国际原油一方面承受供应过剩的基本面压力，另一方面持续受到地缘政治风险 事件的扰动。本周一度跌破60美金下探4月份的低点，但后在特朗普对委内瑞拉宣战后反弹，但整体依然偏弱 运行。 2）外盘丙烷走势坚挺：海外丙烷市场表现相对强势。美国市场产量下滑带动库存下降，中东地区发运量仍处 于低位，供应偏紧格局延续。当前FEI升贴水下滑至13美元，CP升贴水上升至51美元，反映出国际市场结构 性支撑仍存。 3）内盘基本面持稳：供应端到港量本周依然偏低，港口库存去化；化工需求端，PDH本周在巨正源及滨华复 产推动下开工上行至75%，但行业持续处于深度亏损状态，加之市场传闻部分PDH企业计划检修，关注实际 检修情况。 我们认为，LPG价 ...

Group 1: Core View - The LPG futures price declined due to falling oil prices, PDH shutdown news, and an increase in warehouse receipts. The domestic civil gas price also dropped. The external paper market first rose and then fell, with the FEI and CP spreads strengthening and the MB spread weakening. The oil - gas ratio declined, and the domestic - foreign spread weakened. The US - Asia arbitrage window opened. Overall, Middle Eastern supplies are tight, and winter prices are unlikely to fall significantly. The domestic market is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term. Attention should be paid to the subsequent PDH start - up under high costs and the situation of factory warehouse receipts [4] Group 2: Data Summary Daily Price Changes - Civil gas prices: In East China, it was 4398 (-10); in Shandong, it was 4410 (-30); in South China, it was 4490 (+30). The price of ether - post - carbon four was 4600 (+30). The lowest delivery location was East China [4] - Basis daily change: 84 (-6); 01 - 02 spread: 124 (+0); 03 - 04 spread: -208 (-2). As of 22:00, FEI was 509 (+1) and CP was 501 (-2) dollars/ton [4] Futures - related Data - LPG futures basis was 265 (+122), 01 - 02 spread was 84 (+5), 03 - 04 spread was -223 (-12), and warehouse receipts were 5476 lots (+865) [4] Market Spread Data - PG - CP dropped to 71 (-28), PG - FEI dropped to 65 (-14). The East China propane arrival premium was 85 (-7), and the AFEI, Middle East, and US propane FOB premiums were 42 (+12), 42 (+17), and 47 (+4) respectively [4] Supply - related Data - The arrival volume increased by 12.25%, port inventory increased by 3.22%, external supply increased slightly by 1.3%, and refinery storage capacity increased slightly by 0.27%. The PDH operating rate was 72.87% (+2.65pct) [4]

证券日报网12月12日讯 东华能源在12月11日回答调研者提问时表示，茂名地区电价较低，碳纤维项目 使用的水、蒸汽等可以与PDH项目共享，既节约了投资，也节约了能源费用。而且产线运行以后，通过 技术升级可以进一步提升产能。 （编辑 姚尧） ...

国泰君安期货·能源化工 C3产业链周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所 日期：2025年12月7日 陈鑫超 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020238 赵书岑（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03147780 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint CONTENT 总结 01 LPG部分 02 丙烯部分 03 价格&价差 供应 需求&库存 价格&价差 平衡表 供应 需求 下游库存 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 2 本周LPG观点：短期需求坚挺，中长期仍承压 供应 国产方面，液化气总商品量51.7万吨，较上周环比减少0.9%；其中，民用气商品量21.2万吨（+0.7%），醚后商品量17.3万吨（+2.4%）；当前， 国内民用气商品量处于低位水平，而醚后碳四商品量高位回落至24年同期水平。国际市场供应方面，美国丙烷库存环比回落，中东供应维持偏 紧；需求方面，化工刚需支撑叠加燃烧旺季来临给到相对坚挺的支撑，但当前化工维持亏损，市场担忧未来前景；此外，高价抑制买兴，买盘 热情不及上周，丙烷价格震荡整理 ...