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LPG:需求改善有限,盘面估值偏高,丙烯:供需收窄,短期存止跌预期
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-11-10 03:33
Group 1: Report Title and Core View - The report focuses on LPG and propylene, with the view that LPG demand improvement is limited and the futures valuation is high, while propylene supply - demand gap narrows and there is a short - term expectation of price stop - falling [2][3] Group 2: Fundamental Data Futures Price - PG2512 yesterday's closing price was 4,272 with a daily increase of 0.16%, and night - session closing price was 4,290 with a night - session increase of 0.42% - PG2601 yesterday's closing price was 4,200 with a daily increase of 0.14%, and night - session closing price was 4,217 with a night - session increase of 0.40% - PL2601 yesterday's closing price was 5,897 with a daily increase of 0.19%, and night - session closing price was 5,895 with a night - session decrease of 0.03% - PL2602 yesterday's closing price was 5,916 with a daily increase of 0.27%, and night - session closing price was 5,929 with a night - session increase of 0.22% - PL2603 yesterday's closing price was 5,858 with a daily increase of 0.10%, and night - session closing price was 5,877 with a night - session increase of 0.32% [3] Position and Trading Volume - PG2512 yesterday's trading volume was 66,578, a decrease of 14,448 from the previous day, and the position was 90,244, a decrease of 5,137 from the previous day - PG2601 yesterday's trading volume was 19,177, a decrease of 1,381 from the previous day, and the position was 39,310, an increase of 2,677 from the previous day - PL2601 yesterday's trading volume was 1,962, a decrease of 816 from the previous day, and the position was 5,415, a decrease of 184 from the previous day - PL2602 yesterday's trading volume was 25,285, an increase of 5,291 from the previous day, and the position was 6,495, a decrease of 443 from the previous day - PL2603 yesterday's trading volume was 46,578, an increase of 2,643 from the previous day, and the position was 14,268, a decrease of 180 from the previous day [3] Spread - The spread between Guangzhou domestic gas and PG12 contract was 178 yesterday, compared with 185 the previous day - The spread between Guangzhou imported gas and PG12 contract was 238 yesterday, compared with 245 the previous day - The spread between Shandong propylene and PL01 contract was - 282 yesterday, compared with - 236 the previous day - The spread between East China propylene and PL01 contract was - 97 yesterday, compared with - 111 the previous day - The spread between South China propylene and PL01 contract was - 72 yesterday, compared with - 61 the previous day [3] Key Industrial Chain Data - This week, the PDH operating rate was 75.5%, compared with 73.9% last week - The MTBE operating rate was 68.6% this week, compared with 68.0% last week - The alkylation operating rate was 38.5% this week, compared with 43.6% last week [3] Group 3: Trend Intensity - LPG trend intensity is 0, and propylene trend intensity is 0, with the range of trend intensity being integers in the [-2,2] interval [7] Group 4: Market Information CP Paper Goods Price - On November 7, 2025, the December CP paper goods price for propane was 466 dollars/ton, a 3 - dollar/ton increase from the previous trading day; the price for butane was 459 dollars/ton, a 6 - dollar/ton increase from the previous trading day. The January CP paper goods price for propane was 476 dollars/ton, a 2 - dollar/ton increase from the previous trading day [8] Domestic PDH Device Maintenance Plan - Multiple companies have PDH device maintenance plans, such as Henan Huasong New Material Technology Co., Ltd. starting maintenance on May 12, 2023, with the end time to be determined; Jiangsu Yanchang Zhongran Chemical Co., Ltd. starting maintenance in late November 2023, with the end time to be determined [9] Domestic LPG Factory Device Maintenance Plan - Many LPG factories have device maintenance plans, including Huaxing Petrochemical in Shandong starting full - plant maintenance on October 22, 2024, with the end time in early November 2025; Rizhao (Zhonghai) in Shandong starting full - plant maintenance on January 3, 2025, with the end time to be determined [9]
能源化工:C3产业链周度报告-20251026
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-10-26 12:33
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - **LPG**: Short - term upward drivers are weakening, and macro risks still exist. The supply of domestic LPG has decreased, and the demand for civil use is recovering. The PDH and MTBE device operating rates have increased. The prices in East and South China have declined, while Shandong's prices have rebounded after a fall. It is recommended to closely monitor macro - factors, import costs, and international geopolitical situations [3][4]. - **Propylene**: The supply and demand are relatively loose, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term. The supply has slightly decreased this week, and the demand from downstream industries remains weak. Although the supply and demand are expected to increase next week, the pattern of loose supply and demand will not change. It is recommended to pay attention to PDH device shutdown dynamics and the propylene - powder price difference [7]. 3. Section Summaries LPG Part - **Price & Spread** - Domestic spot prices: Shandong's civil gas prices have rebounded, while prices in other regions such as East and South China have declined. Imported gas prices and FEI, CP have first fallen and then risen, with a significant increase in FEI [10]. - Regional quotations, discounts, and freight: The freight from the Middle East to the Far East has continued to decline, and the freight from the United States to the Far East has stopped falling. The FEI discount has improved [24]. - Propane prices: They have rebounded from a low level [37]. - **Supply** - International shipping: The arrival of international ships in China has decreased compared to last week, mainly in South China, due to sea gales [3]. - Domestic production: The total commercial volume of LPG is 537,000 tons, a 2.4% decrease from last week. The propane commercial volume has decreased due to less - than - expected ship arrivals [60][70]. - Shipment volume: The shipment volumes of the United States, Canada, and the Middle East have changed to varying degrees, with overall decreases in some regions [47][48][49]. - **Demand & Inventory** - Chemical demand: The operating rates of PDH and MTBE have increased [74]. - Domestic refinery inventory: The inventory of civil gas is at a relatively high level year - on - year, with limited changes this week [84]. - Port inventory: The inventory is at a high level year - on - year, mainly with destocking on a month - on - month basis [89]. Propylene Part - **Price & Spread** - Upstream prices: Brent, WTI, and other upstream prices have increased, while some prices such as NAP in Shandong have decreased [100]. - Propylene prices: International/US - dollar prices have slightly corrected from a high level, and domestic prices have stopped falling and stabilized [103][111]. - Mid/upstream and downstream profits: Profits in various sectors have changed, with significant decreases in some sectors such as PDH [100][102]. - **Balance Sheet** - Operating rates: The operating rates of PDH and some downstream industries have increased, while the operating rates of some upstream and downstream industries have decreased [120]. - Supply and demand balance: The supply and demand of propylene are relatively loose, with expected increases in both supply and demand next week, but the loose pattern will not change [7].
南华期货2025年LPG四季度展望:供应有韧性,需求待考验
Nan Hua Qi Huo· 2025-09-28 13:03
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Views - In Q4, both domestic and overseas supply of LPG remains resilient, while the demand side faces greater challenges [1] - The price range for Q4 is estimated to be between 3,800 - 4,600 yuan/ton [2] - Recommended strategies include range - trading for single - side operations, selling near - term contracts and buying far - term contracts at high prices for monthly spreads, and buying overseas and shorting domestic at low prices for the domestic - overseas spread [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Chapter 2: Market Review - In Q3, the domestic LPG price showed a pattern of first falling and then rising, affected by the crude oil market and a large number of warehouse receipts. The main contract price dropped from 4,500 yuan/ton to 3,770 yuan/ton, and the overseas CP contract price dropped from $600/ton in June to $520/ton in September [4][5] - From April to September this year, the domestic PG warehouse receipt volume was continuously at a seasonal high. Near - month prices were suppressed, the basis was mostly at a seasonal high, and the monthly spread was in a contango pattern, with the 9 - 10 spread reaching a minimum of about - 720 yuan/ton [8] - In Q3, the overseas price relationship was CP>FEI>MB. The MB price was relatively weak, the CP - FEI spread narrowed, and the FEI - MB spread widened [9] Chapter 3: Core Focus Points 3.1 Supply Still Has Resilience - **Middle East**: OPEC+ has been gradually increasing production since May, but the export increment is not obvious. From January to August, the total LPG export was 32,252 tons, with a year - on - year increase of 1.60%. It is expected that the monthly average export volume in Q4 will be around 3,800 - 3,900 KT, similar to that of last year's Q4 [11][12] - **United States**: In Q3, the US C3 production remained high, with an average of 2.85 million barrels/day. From January to August, the total LPG export was 45,455 KT, with a year - on - year increase of 3.62%. It is expected that the Q4 export volume will remain high, with an estimated C3 production of 2.8 million barrels/day [16] 3.2 Asian Demand Faces Challenges - **India**: From January to August, the total LPG import was 14,947 KT, with a year - on - year increase of 7.08%. In Q4, the import volume will remain high but the incremental growth will not be significant, expected to be around 2 - 2.1 million tons/month [21][23] - **South Korea and Japan**: South Korea's LPG import volume is expected to remain high in Q4, supported by seasonal demand and chemical demand. Japan's LPG production has been decreasing year by year, and the demand is highly dependent on imports. There will be a seasonal increase in Q4 [25][28] - **China**: The PDH industry is in an expansion cycle. As of now, PDH has suffered losses, and there is a risk of a decline in chemical demand in Q4. The C4 demand and MTBE demand are also expected to decline seasonally [31][34] 3.3 Freight Rates Expected to Fluctuate at a High Level - Since the Sino - US trade friction in April, the freight rate from the US Gulf to the Far East has been rising. In Q4, the freight rate is expected to remain at a high level due to the resilient US export and the number of ships detouring the Cape of Good Hope remaining higher than in previous years [39] Chapter 4: Valuation Feedback and Supply - Demand Outlook 4.1 Valuation Feedback - **Gas - oil ratio**: It is relatively neutral to high and may continue to rise if crude oil production increases in Q4 [44] - **PN spread**: It is relatively neutral to low and is expected to remain low in Q4 [46] - **PDH profit**: It is currently in a loss state and is expected to remain low in Q4 [48] 4.2 Overseas Supply - Demand Outlook - Supply will remain resilient in Q4, while demand in the Asian market has limited growth, mainly from seasonal factors. Chemical demand may be suppressed by profit decline [50] 4.3 Domestic Supply - Demand Outlook - **Supply**: Domestic LPG production is expected to remain at a high level in Q4, but the import volume may be affected by PDH profit and maintenance [51][54] - **Demand**: Chemical demand will decline in Q4, while the increase in combustion demand will not be significant as this winter is likely to be a warm winter [55]
能源化工C3产业链周度报告-20250928
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-09-28 09:29
Group 1: Report Information - Report Title: C3 Industry Chain Weekly Report [1] - Report Date: September 28, 2025 [1] - Analyst: Chen Xinchao [1] - Contact: Zhao Shucen [1] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Group 3: Core Views LPG Part - Short - term support is not weak. Domestic supply has a slight increase, and import to - ship volume is expected to rise next week. Demand in the civil and chemical sectors is expected to strengthen [3]. - This week, civil gas prices showed different trends in different regions, and the FEI price of imported gas decreased slightly. Next week, import costs may increase, and the fundamentals may provide some support [4]. Propylene Part - Supply devices are gradually returning, and the market is expected to run weakly in the short - term, but there is still support at the bottom [5]. Group 4: Summary by Sections LPG Part - Price & Spread - This week, civil gas prices in East China declined slightly, those in Shandong rose slightly, and those in South China were relatively firm. Imported gas prices showed a narrow - range decline. The week - on - week changes in different regions varied [3][4][8]. - The US - Far East freight first remained stable and then declined, the FEI discount weakened, and the arbitrage space narrowed [20]. LPG Part - Supply - The total domestic LPG commodity volume was 53.9 tons, a 0.1% increase week - on - week. The civil gas commodity volume was 21.1 tons, a 4.8% increase, while the ether - after carbon four commodity volume was 18.0 tons, a 1.6% decrease [3][64]. - The international ship - arrival volume decreased by 4.1 tons this week, mainly in East China, but it is expected to increase next week [3]. LPG Part - Demand & Inventory - In terms of demand, the civil demand is strengthening, and the PDH and MTBE device operating rates have increased [3]. - Refinery inventories in East China and South China showed different trends, and port inventories in South China decreased while those in East China and Shandong increased [80][95]. Propylene Part - Price & Spread - Upstream prices such as Brent and WTI increased slightly, and propylene prices in different regions and international markets showed a downward trend [106]. - The profits of different production methods in the mid - upstream and downstream showed different changes [106][108]. Propylene Part - Balance Sheet - The operating rates of different production methods in the propylene industry chain showed different trends this week, with some increasing and some decreasing [127]. - From January to September 2025, the supply and demand of domestic propylene showed different changes in different months, and the balance volume also fluctuated [130][131].
山东能源齐翔腾达:让工作室成为创新“强引擎”
Zhong Guo Hua Gong Bao· 2025-09-19 02:49
Core Viewpoint - Innovation and talent development are central to the operational strategy of Shandong Energy Qixiang Tengda, focusing on solving practical safety production issues through technology and collaboration [1][2] Group 1: Innovation and Talent Development - The company emphasizes the establishment of innovation studios to enhance employee creativity and technical skills, integrating resources and wisdom to drive development [1] - A culture of learning and technical exchange is fostered within the innovation studios, encouraging employees to share insights and solutions to production challenges [1] - The company has implemented a structured approach to innovation through monthly meetings, semi-annual progress meetings, and annual summary meetings, transforming these into collaborative learning sessions [1] Group 2: Technical Improvements and Operational Efficiency - The innovation studio focuses on optimizing public engineering, adjusting technical parameters, and integrating various water systems for economic operation [2] - Preventive maintenance of critical equipment, such as the acrylic acid plant's shielding pump, is prioritized to ensure reliable operation and safety [2] - The company is actively enhancing the electrical system's resilience and upgrading control systems to improve management and product quality through information technology [2] Group 3: Future Development Strategy - The company plans to deepen its innovation-driven development strategy, guided by a craftsmanship culture and leveraging innovation studios to create a cycle of innovation, transformation, and efficiency [2]
液化石油气(LPG)投资周报:需求结构性转变,PG偏强震荡运行-20250915
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-09-15 06:58
Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view on LPG is "oscillating", indicating a neutral stance in the short - term [4]. Report's Core View - The LPG market shows a situation of "weak oil and strong gas". PG prices are firm due to freight and capital factors. The supply - demand contradiction of propylene in the intermediate link is alleviated, and the terminal PP demand is saturated, resulting in continuous and substantial losses in PDH profits. In the short - term, PG prices are expected to oscillate strongly, with a relatively low current valuation. Attention should be paid to the flow of warehouse receipts and geopolitical risks [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Review - The main contract of LPG futures fluctuated and rose, with a range of 4360 - 4470 yuan/ton. The spot price trend was weaker than the futures, and the basis weakened. International crude oil prices first fell and then rose, and the trend of PG futures was basically the same as that of crude oil. International LPG prices increased, but domestic spot prices showed both increases and decreases. Chemical demand declined significantly, and the profits of multiple chemical plants continued to be in the red. The internal valuation of futures prices was neutral. The weekly average basis was 37 yuan/ton in East China, 120 yuan/ton in South China, and 30 yuan/ton in Shandong, with the lowest deliverable standard being in Shandong [7]. 2. Influencing Factors Supply - Last week, the total commercial volume of LPG was about 53.74 million tons, including 20.52 million tons of civil gas, 21.04 million tons of industrial gas, and 17.89 million tons of ether - after carbon four. The arrival volume of LPG last week was 65 million tons. With the resumption of some devices in East China and Shandong last week, the supply increased. A refinery in Shandong plans to conduct maintenance this week, and it is expected that the domestic commercial volume may decline [4]. Demand - The combustion demand is gradually coming to an end, and the traditional peak - season logic is weakening, but the price of civil gas remains firm in the short - term. In the carbon - four deep - processing sector, affected by new - energy substitution, gasoline demand has weakened. The profit of MTBE is inverted, but the operating rate is at a high level. The profit of alkylated gasoline has changed from profit to loss, and the loss of isobutane dehydrogenation profit is relatively deep. The ether - after market may decline and stabilize. In the carbon - three deep - processing sector, the utilization rate of PDH production capacity is relatively stable, and the operating rate remains at a medium - to - high level. The price of propylene in the intermediate link has declined, and the terminal PP demand is saturated. There are continuous losses from the PDH device to the propylene and PP links [4]. Inventory - Last week, the factory inventory of LPG was 17.91 million tons, and the port inventory was 318.65 million tons. The domestic LPG inventory continued to increase. Although the trading and transportation capacity resumed after the end of large - scale domestic events, the inventory pressure in some northern regions was gradually relieved. However, in other regions, due to increased supply and weak demand, the shipment volume decreased to varying degrees, and the refinery storage capacity utilization rate continued to rise. At the ports, the number of incoming ships decreased slightly, but the unloading volume was more than the arrival volume, with little change compared to last week. Coupled with the downward trend of overall chemical demand, the port inventory increased slightly [4]. Basis and Position - The weekly average basis was a certain value in East China, South China, and Shandong. The total number of LPG warehouse receipts increased by 6, and the lowest deliverable area was Shandong [4]. Chemical Downstream - The operating rates of PDH, MTBE, and alkylation were 70.49%, 55.81%, and 46.17% respectively. The profits of PDH to propylene, MTBE isomerization, and alkylation in Shandong were - 52 yuan/ton, - 291 yuan/ton, and - 180.50 yuan/ton respectively [4]. Valuation - The PG - SC ratio was a certain value, and the PG continuous - one to continuous - two month spread was a certain value. With the continuous increase in crude oil production, the cost segment was dragged down, and the PG - SC cracking spread continued to strengthen [4]. Other Factors - In October, OPEC+ increased production by 137,000 barrels again, starting the second round of the production - increase cycle to regain market share. The US non - farm payrolls data in August was lower than market expectations, with an increase in the number of unemployed, a month - on - month decline in PPI and CPI, and an enhanced expectation of economic slowdown and interest - rate cuts. The geopolitical situations in Russia - Ukraine, US - Venezuela, and the Middle East still tend to be tense, and the war may further escalate [4]. 3. Trading Strategy - For unilateral trading, it is recommended to wait and see temporarily. For arbitrage, the strategies are to go long on PP2601 and short on PL2601, go long on PP2601 and short on PG2601, and go long on PG2510 and short on SC2510 [4].
LPG早报-20250902
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-09-02 03:22
Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report The LPG market shows a mixed trend. The PG main contract fluctuates weakly, and the basis first weakens and then strengthens. The 9 - 10 and 10 - 11 spreads change. The warehouse receipt registration volume increases. The 9 - month CP official price remains stable. The fundamentals show that port inventories are decreasing, refinery commodity volume increases by 2.47%, and plant inventories increase but are controllable. PDH, alkylation, and MTBE have different operating rates. The combustion off - season is ending but demand is still weak. The cheapest delivery area in East China is expected to have a tight supply, improved demand, and increased import costs, with an overall stable and upward trend [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalog Market Data - **Price Changes**: From August 26 to September 1, the prices of South China LPG, East China LPG, Shandong LPG, etc., show different changes. For example, South China LPG drops from 4620 to 4580, a decrease of 40 [1]. - **Spread Changes**: The 9 - 10 month spread is - 721 (- 212), and the 10 - 11 month spread is 84 (- 3). The FEI - CP is 21.5 (+ 4.5), and the AFEL offshore discount is 5.5 (- 0.5), while the CP South China arrival discount is 65 (+ 8) [1]. - **Inventory and Warehouse Receipts**: Port inventories are decreasing, refinery commodity volume increases by 2.47%, and plant inventories increase but are controllable. The warehouse receipt registration volume is 13207 hands (+ 320), with different changes in different companies such as Qingdao Yunda (- 55), Wuchan Zhongda (- 65), and Donghua (+ 440) [1]. Fundamental Analysis - **Operating Rates**: PDH operating rate is 73.02% (- 2.64pct), alkylation operating rate is 48.42% (+ 0.74), and MTBE operating rate is 63.54% (+ 0). Wanhua Phase II is under maintenance, Quanzhou Guoheng restarts at the end of the week and is expected to increase load next week, and Hebei Haiwei plans to stop work [1]. - **Profit Situation**: PDH spot profit changes little, paper profit fluctuates downward, alkylation oil production gross profit declines, and MTBE gross profit moves down [1]. - **Supply and Demand**: The combustion off - season is gradually ending, but demand is still weak. The cheapest delivery area in East China is expected to have a tight supply, improved demand, and increased import costs [1].
东华能源(002221):PDH景气度承压,碳纤维项目稳步推进
Changjiang Securities· 2025-08-25 09:22
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [9]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 16.283 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 13.28%. However, the net profit attributable to shareholders was 0.066 billion yuan, a decrease of 39.80% year-on-year. The net profit excluding non-recurring items was 0.035 billion yuan, down 31.06% year-on-year [2][6]. - The PDH (Propane Dehydrogenation) industry is currently experiencing low demand, with the company's production capacity for PDH and PP (Polypropylene) ranking among the top in China. The company is expected to become the world's largest PP producer after the completion of the Maoming project [12]. - The company is focusing on developing a carbon fiber-based composite materials and hydrogen energy industry chain, with significant investments in research and development for low-cost carbon fiber manufacturing [12]. - The Maoming base has a competitive advantage due to its port and terminal resources, which contribute to lower transportation costs and enhance the company's market position [12]. - The projected net profits for the company from 2025 to 2027 are estimated to be 0.23 billion yuan, 0.38 billion yuan, and 0.58 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 61.1X, 37.1X, and 24.1X [12]. Financial Performance - In the second quarter of 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 8.303 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.36% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 4.06%. However, the net profit attributable to shareholders was only 0.014 billion yuan, down 74.70% year-on-year and 73.77% quarter-on-quarter [2][6]. - The production of propylene in the first half of 2025 was 524,400 tons, achieving 46.6% of the annual target, while polypropylene production was 574,900 tons, achieving 48.4% of the annual target [12].
万华化学(600309):公司简评报告:以量补价经营稳健,新项目支撑成长
Capital Securities· 2025-08-15 11:57
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] Core Views - The company is expected to maintain stable operations by compensating for price declines with increased volume, supported by new projects that will drive growth [1] - Despite a decline in revenue and net profit in the first half of 2025, the company has shown resilience in production and sales volume, with significant capacity expansions completed [5] - The company has a strong capital expenditure plan, with investments exceeding 100 billion yuan annually since 2018, ensuring long-term growth potential [5] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue for 2025 is projected at 1,988.63 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 9.2% [2] - Net profit for 2025 is estimated at 135.19 billion yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 3.7% [2] - Earnings per share (EPS) is expected to be 4.31 yuan for 2025, with a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 15 [2] - The company reported a total revenue of 909.01 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, down 6.35% year-on-year, with a net profit of 61.23 billion yuan, down 25.10% year-on-year [5] - The overall gross margin for the first half of 2025 was 13.84%, a decrease of 2.57 percentage points year-on-year [5] Capacity Expansion and New Projects - The company has completed significant capacity expansions, including the MDI facility in Fujian, which increased capacity from 400,000 tons/year to 800,000 tons/year, and the new ethylene project in Yantai with a capacity of 1.2 million tons/year [5] - New projects in high-performance materials and other segments are expected to contribute to future growth [5] Financial Ratios and Projections - The company’s debt-to-asset ratio is projected to be 61.7% in 2025, indicating a stable financial structure [6] - Return on equity (ROE) is expected to be 11.8% in 2025, reflecting the company's ability to generate profit from shareholders' equity [6] - The net profit margin is projected to be 7.2% in 2025, indicating profitability despite market challenges [6]
8月份LPG到岸价小幅回升 国内化工需求相对强劲托底国际市场
Xin Hua Cai Jing· 2025-08-15 05:33
Core Viewpoint - The international LPG market has experienced a period of weak decline, but domestic chemical demand, particularly for propane and butane, has provided support, stabilizing prices in the range of $555-565 per ton [1][3]. Group 1: Domestic Chemical Demand - Strong domestic chemical demand has significantly supported the LPG market, with notable increases in the deep processing demand for propane and butane [3]. - The average operating rate of domestic PDH (Propane Dehydrogenation) units rose above 70% in July and further increased to over 73% in early August, indicating a recovery in propane demand [3]. - The profitability of domestic PDH units remains favorable, encouraging higher operational rates [3]. Group 2: Butane Demand - Butane demand has also been robust, playing a crucial role in supporting the international market, with increased imports alleviating supply pressures and even causing shortages in some regions [5]. - The operating rate of domestic isobutane dehydrogenation units has rebounded to over 73% in August after hitting a low in May, supported by nearly one million tons of new capacity from companies like Kaiyi and Yuxin [5]. - In July, the loading volume of domestic butane pressure vessels reached 29,600 tons, accounting for 14.08% of the total loading volume, reflecting a significant increase of over 10 percentage points from June [5]. Group 3: Market Outlook - The strong chemical demand for propane and butane has not only supported the international LPG market but also alleviated domestic sales pressure, with a noticeable slowdown in the decline of residential gas prices in August [7]. - Future demand for propane remains strong, driven by PDH and ethylene units, while butane demand is expected to remain high, although the profitability of isobutane dehydrogenation may negatively impact future demand [7]. - As summer transitions to fall, there is potential for a rebound in combustion demand, which could further boost LPG demand [7].