丁二烯：产品供需趋紧，推动价格上涨 2025年12月后，部分丁二烯企业暂停外销，叠加受韩国供应收紧，供给有所收紧。叠加下游需求端逐步 向好，顺丁橡胶和丁苯橡胶开工率持续提升，支撑丁二烯价格持续上行。2026年1月，丁二烯价差为 4630元/吨，环比12月+65%。 智通财经APP获悉，国泰海通发布研报称，2026年1月，由于产品供需趋紧、上游原材料上涨，市场情 绪偏强等因素影响，化工品价格持续上涨，价差持续扩大，其中丁二烯、PDH、尿素、PTA价差环比扩 大较多，2026年1月，丁二烯价差为4630元/吨，环比+65%;PDH价差48美元/吨，环比+65%;尿素价差为 411元/吨，环比+44%;PTA价差为1006元/吨，环比+22%，相关公司可能存在投资机会。 国泰海通主要观点如下： 2026年1月丁二烯、PDH、尿素、PTA价差环比扩大较多 2026年1月，丁二烯价差为4630元/吨，环比+65%;PDH价差48美元/吨，环比+65%;尿素价差为411元/ 吨，环比+44%;PTA价差为1006元/吨，环比+22%。 PDH：企业停产检修较多，价差持续扩大 2025年12月，由于丙烷价格上涨，PDH工艺 ...

南华期货LPG产业周报 ——地缘增加盘面波动 戴一帆（投资咨询资格证号：Z0015428） 研究助理：沈玮玮（期货从业证书：F03140197 ） 联系邮箱：shenweiwei@nawaa.com 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 2026年02月08日 第一章 核心矛盾及策略建议 1.1 核心矛盾 当前影响LPG价格走势的核心矛盾有以下几点： 1）成本端原油市场震荡反复：中长期看原油一方面承受供应过剩的基本面的影响，另一方面受到地缘的影 响，短期地缘占据主导，本周原油价格在美伊局势变动中上下震荡，周五谈判完，目前据消息称伊朗拒绝放 弃其核燃料浓缩活动，而美方仍在对伊朗施压，特朗普表示下周将再次与伊朗谈判。 2）外盘丙烷本周偏震荡：中东地区发运量整体中性，到岸贴水依然较高；美国本周在寒潮影响在供应下滑， 库存维持去库状态，低产量下去库加快。截至本周五，FEI升贴水53.5（换月导致），CP升贴水-15。 丙烯-PDH-利润-FEI 3）内盘基本面较上周持稳：供应端本周依旧延续偏低的状态，到港量本周依然不高，港口库存在新增样本下 小幅累库，但炼厂商品量低位回升；需求端在PDH装置检修下延续偏弱 ...

（记者 曾健辉） 免责声明：本文内容与数据仅供参考，不构成投资建议，使用前请核实。据此操作，风险自担。 每日经济新闻 每经AI快讯，东华能源1月30日晚间发布业绩预告，预计2025年归属于上市公司股东的净利润3400万至 5000万元，比上年同期下降-92.34%至-88.74%，基本每股收益0.0216元至~0.0317元。业绩变动主要原因 是，受宏观环境和行业周期影响，报告期内丙烯、聚丙烯产品均价同比下滑，其中第四季度聚丙烯价格 加速下跌，PDH 行业整体盈利能力受到严峻挑战。面对复杂的市场形势，公司发挥全产业链运营的系 统性优势，持续技改降本，实现主营业务的稳健经营。 每经头条（nbdtoutiao）——核电建设热潮下，设备厂忙到"飞起"！订单已排至2028年，员工三班倒， 产线24小时不停 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The short - term investment rating for LPG is "short - term bullish", but it is recommended that investors mainly short at high levels [4]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short term, the fermentation of cold snaps and geopolitical conflicts drives the upward movement of PG, but the actual increase in the futures market is limited. Coupled with a significant decline in the PDH operating rate and a notable weakening of chemical demand, it is advisable for investors to short at high levels [4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - The main contract of LPG futures rebounded after a decline, with a fluctuation range of 4,030 - 4,220 yuan/ton. International crude oil and LPG prices continued to rise, but the domestic market supply kept increasing. Although the volume of imported ships decreased, some terminals sold resources. Downstream resistance to high prices led to a decline in market prices. Additionally, domestic chemical demand decreased, and combustion demand was mediocre, resulting in a lack of market confidence and a downward shift in the overall trading center [6]. 3.2 Influencing Factors of LPG 3.2.1 Supply - Last week, the total commercial volume of LPG was about 528,500 tons (a 2.13% change), including 228,200 tons of civil gas (a 5.80% change), 186,400 tons of industrial gas (a - 1.53% change), and 164,200 tons of ether - post C4 (a - 1.74% change). The arrival volume of LPG last week was 490,000 tons (a - 9.83% change). A refinery in the southwest and a local refinery in Shandong resumed supply, and some enterprises reduced self - use, leading to an increase in supply. There were no news of start - up or shutdown this week, but the increment would continue to affect supply, and the supply might increase [4]. 3.2.2 Demand - In winter, heating demand remained stable, and the combustion demand for LPG gradually improved, reaching a relatively high level. Before the Spring Festival, the load of PDH plants gradually decreased, and the plant profit loss was repaired. The propane procurement demand of port chemical enterprises was relatively rigid, but there were news of plant production cuts recently, and the expected operating rate would gradually decline, causing the propane chemical demand to fall. The MTBE profit was in a loss state, the overseas olefin blending oil demand slowed down, the domestic export window closed, most orders had been executed, and the high - operating rate of refineries was difficult to maintain, thus suppressing the price trend of civil gas [4]. 3.2.3 Inventory - Last week, the in - plant inventory of LPG was 165,200 tons (a 5.42% change), and the port inventory was 1,996,800 tons (a - 1.53% change). Affected by widespread snow and increased supply, some local manufacturers had difficulty in shipping, leading to an increase in the refinery storage capacity ratio. The number of arriving ships at the port decreased, remaining at a low level, and the continuous shortage of imported resources meant that the terminals mainly consumed inventory. With the decline in chemical demand and limited arriving ships, the terminal shipping volume was small, and some terminals stopped shipping, so the demand showed a narrowing trend. With a low arrival volume, the port inventory continued to decline this period [4]. 3.2.4 Basis and Position - The weekly average basis was 317.80 yuan/ton in East China, 715.40 yuan/ton in South China, and 359.40 yuan/ton in Shandong. The total number of LPG warehouse receipts was 5,898 lots, with no change, and the lowest deliverable area was East China [4]. 3.2.5 Chemical Downstream - The operating rates of PDH, MTBE, and alkylation were 62.25%, 58.15%, and 37.41% respectively. The profits of PDH to propylene, MTBE isomerization, and alkylation in Shandong were - 438.18 yuan/ton, - 203 yuan/ton respectively [4]. 3.2.6 Valuation - The PG - SC ratio was 1.29 (a 0.19% change), and the PG spread between the main and secondary months was - 278 yuan/ton (a 14.88% change). In the fourth quarter, gas prices were firm, while crude oil showed a bearish trend, and the oil - gas cracking spread had a weakening trend [4]. 3.2.7 Other Factors - The EIA crude oil inventory in the US last week increased by 3.6 million barrels more than expected, and the IEA maintained its expectation of a loose crude oil supply in 2026. The State - owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council announced that Sinopec and China National Aviation Fuel would be reorganized. The news of the US's strike against Iran fermented again, and the geopolitical situations in the Middle East and Russia - Ukraine were tense. The cold snap caused a 60% surge in natural gas prices, leading to a short - term jump in oil and gas prices. Events such as the Trump administration's attempt to occupy Greenland and seize Russian oil tankers fermented again, causing market panic about geopolitics [4]. 3.3 Trading Strategies - Unilateral trading: Short at high levels. - Arbitrage: Pay attention to the PG3 - 4 reverse spread, long SC and short PG, long PP and short PG to make profits from PDH [4].

Report Overview - Report Title: C3 Industry Chain Weekly Report - Report Date: January 18, 2026 - Report Author: Chen Xinchao, Zhao Shucen Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Views LPG Part - Short - term supply is tight, and attention should be paid to the realization of downward drivers. Although the supply in the Middle East remains tight, there is still supply pressure after the impact of fog at US terminals weakens. With low chemical profits and many PDH maintenance plans in Q1, the downward drive is significant. [3][4] - The lowest deliverable product may switch as the spread between Shandong civil and ether - post C4 widens. Near the cancellation month, attention should be paid to the change in the number of warehouse receipts. [4] Propylene Part - After the rapid rise of spot prices, the upward drive weakens. The tight - balance pattern of propylene is difficult to change next week. Although the downstream's enthusiasm for chasing high - priced propylene may weaken, the rigid demand for production provides strong support, so propylene is expected to remain in an upward - biased pattern. [6][7] Summary by Directory LPG Part Price & Spread - Domestic LPG spot prices maintain a moderately strong and fluctuating trend. The lowest deliverable product is still Shandong civil gas, and the spread between civil and ether - post C4 has widened to 100 yuan/ton. [10][13] - Propane prices maintain a moderately strong trend, with the FEI index and related import costs showing an upward trend. The spot premium further increases, and the freight rate remains stable, while the arbitrage window from the US Gulf to the Far East expands. [10][21][27] Supply - US LPG shipments to Asia are flat month - on - month, while Middle East shipments are tight. The total LPG commodity volume is 51.9 tons (+0.1%), with 21.7 tons of civil gas (-0.1%) and 16.7 tons of ether - post C4 (-0.1%). Propane imports decrease by 0.2 tons month - on - month. [39][43][49][63] Demand & Inventory - PDH operating rates decline, while MTBE operating rates remain flat. LPG refinery inventories are at a neutral level compared to the same period in 2025, with a slight de - stocking of civil gas refinery inventories. Port inventories in East China, Shandong, and South China decline month - on - month, while Fujian accumulates inventory due to concentrated arrivals. [80][82][100] Propylene Part Price & Spread - The cost - end propane is firm, propylene prices rise strongly, and PDH profits fluctuate and recover. Downstream prices continue to rise, but the spread between propylene and powder returns to the loss range. International and domestic propylene prices rise month - on - month, and the import window is partially opened. [115][117][118] Balance Sheet - PDH and MTO operating rates decline month - on - month, and the powder profit is compressed, leading to a decline in its operating rate. The supply is expected to tighten gradually as the Jinneng PDH and Lianyungang Shenghong MTO are expected to undergo maintenance. The demand is supported by the rigid procurement of PP powder, and the situation is expected to improve in January. [139][159] Supply - The overall upstream operating rate of propylene is 75.2% (-0.7%). Refinery operating rates remain stable, while cracking and PDH operating rates decline. MTO operating rates also decline, but profits are recovering. [170][190][195] - The import volume of propylene increases by 0.96 tons (7.21%) month - on - month, and the import profit shows an upward trend. [204] Demand - The operating rates of PP, PP powder, PO, and acrylonitrile decline, while the operating rates of n - butanol, octanol, phenol - acetone, and ECH increase. The profit performance of PP shows process differentiation, and the profit of PP powder returns to the loss range. PO prices rise strongly, and the company's profitability improves significantly. [211][231][243][273] Downstream Inventory - PP production enterprise inventory, trader inventory, and powder inventory all decline. The inventory of acrylonitrile plants and ports shows different changes, and the inventory of phenol and acetone in Jiangyin Port declines. [298][299][300]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The document does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - **LPG**: Short - term supply is tight, and attention should be paid to the realization of downward drivers. The domestic PG fluctuates widely in the short term, affected by geopolitical factors. Supply pressure may emerge later, and downward drivers are gradually appearing, but geopolitical situations and PDH device feedback need to be closely monitored [3][4]. - **Propylene**: Spot supply and demand are tightening, and the trend is strong. Next week, with the reduction in supply and the increase in demand, there is still upward potential for propylene [5]. 3. Summary by Directory LPG Part - **Price & Spread** - Domestic LPG spot prices maintain high - level fluctuations, with significant increases in civil and imported gas prices and a further decline in ether - post prices. Propane prices are oscillating strongly, Asian spot premiums are rising further, CP FOB premiums are falling, and freight rates are increasing [8][12][21][23]. - **Supply** - Domestic LPG production shows a decrease, with a total commodity volume of 518,000 tons (-1.1%). US LPG shipments to Asia are increasing month - on - month, and Middle Eastern LPG shipments are recovering [3][33][35]. - **Demand & Inventory** - Chemical demand shows a slight increase in PDH operating rates and a slight decline in MTBE operating rates. Domestic LPG refinery inventories are at a neutral level compared to the same period in 2025, civil gas refinery inventories have small month - on - month changes, and terminal import inventories show destocking in East China and Shandong and inventory accumulation in South China [63][65][86]. Propylene Part - **Price & Spread** - The cost - side propane is firm, propylene prices stabilize and then rebound, and PDH profits are oscillating and recovering. Downstream trends are improving further, and profits are being repaired. International/US - dollar prices are rising slightly month - on - month, the import window remains closed but the inversion is narrowing, and domestic prices are weakly operating [98][100][102][112]. - **Balance Sheet** - PDH operating rates are increasing month - on - month, powder production operating rates are further declining, and butanol and octanol operating rates are increasing significantly. Supply is expected to decrease due to planned maintenance of some devices, while demand is expected to increase, with some downstream devices having restart and load - increasing plans [123][148]. - **Supply** - The overall upstream operating rate of propylene is 76.0% (+1.1%). Refinery/main - plant operating rates are slightly increasing to 77%, cracking/ethylene cracking operating rates are 83.5% (-0.1%), PDH capacity utilization is 75.6% (+0.5%), and MTO capacity utilization is 88.1% (+0.6%) [152][161][167][172]. - **Demand** - PP capacity utilization is 75.5% (-1.3%), PP powder capacity utilization is 37.4% (-1.2%), PO capacity utilization is 73.7% (+0.1%), acrylonitrile capacity utilization is 78.8% (+0.5%), acrylic acid capacity utilization is 86.7% (+3.6%), n - butanol capacity utilization is 83.1% (+2.1%), octanol capacity utilization is 89.0% (+7.0%), phenol - ketone capacity utilization is 85.5% (+4.5%), and ECH capacity utilization is 49.27% (-0.67%) [189][212][224][236][240][250][255][260][268]. - **Downstream Inventory** - PP production enterprise inventories and powder inventories show different trends, with production enterprise inventories decreasing and powder inventories increasing. Inventories of other downstream products such as phenol, acetone, and acrylonitrile also have corresponding changes [273][277][278].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The overall fundamentals of PP provide limited support at the end of the year. With the PDH profit at a new low, but the upstream having locked in raw materials and made some pre - sales earlier, the willingness to cut production is not strong. It is expected that PP will continue to be weak. Attention should be paid to the marginal changes of PDH devices under the deep - loss PDH profit [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Fundamental Tracking - **LLDPE Futures Data**: The closing price of PP2605 was 6330, with a daily decline of 0.28%. The trading volume was 374,453, and the position changed by 535 [1] - **LLDPE Basis and Spread Data**: The 05 - contract basis was - 160 (compared to - 208 the previous day), and the 05 - 09 contract spread was - 25 (compared to - 20 the previous day) [1] - **LLDPE Spot Price Data**: The spot prices in North China, East China, and South China were 6180 yuan/ton, 6170 yuan/ton, and 6260 yuan/ton respectively, showing increases compared to the previous day [1] 2. Spot News - Before the festival, the domestic PP market had partial small increases. After the festival, due to the intensification of geopolitical conflicts in South America during the festival, which boosted oil price expectations, the futures fluctuated on the first day after the festival, and the spot prices rose. However, the end - of - year demand is difficult to provide continuous elasticity, the sustainability of buying is questionable, and the warehouse receipts remain at a high level. The PP US - dollar market price remained stable, with overseas suppliers having low enthusiasm for offering to China, and downstream buyers continuing to make rigid - need purchases, resulting in difficult improvement in trading [1] 3. Market Condition Analysis - **Cost Side**: Crude oil and propane prices are strong. The chemical configuration in the market is differentiated, and the hedging logic between aromatics and olefins is continuously strengthened [2] - **Supply Side**: There is no new production before the 2605 contract, and the game between existing supply and demand intensifies [2] - **Demand Side**: The follow - up of new orders from downstream industries weakens, and downstream factories are still cautious in purchasing, resulting in weak demand [2] 4. Trend Intensity - The PP trend intensity is 0 [2]

Report Information - Report Name: C3 Industry Chain Weekly Report [1] - Report Date: January 4, 2026 [1] - Analyst: Chen Xinchao [1] - Contact Person: Zhao Shucen [1] Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Views LPG - Geopolitical factors disrupt costs, and attention is paid to the realization of downward drivers. The market is relatively stable during holidays, with the internal PG fluctuating and consolidating. After the holiday, the high opening of the January CP official price boosts market sentiment, but the coexistence of supply return and weakening chemical demand expectations remains, and the loose pattern remains unchanged. The market price rises and then falls. In the future, the geopolitical conflict between the US and Venezuela during the holiday is expected to disrupt the cost-side crude oil in the short term, and the increase in the January CP will support the propane trend. However, high prices suppress buying interest, the actual import cost support is limited, and the supply pressure remains. Meanwhile, the current chemical profit is at a low level, there are many PDH maintenance plans in the first quarter, the economic efficiency of cracking propane feedstock is insufficient, and the procurement increment is limited, so the downward driver is gradually emerging. [4][5] Propylene - There is limited upward and downward driving force, and the spot price trend stabilizes. Next week, there will be a mix of start-ups and shutdowns in terms of supply, and the demand side is expected to increase. Overall, propylene lacks obvious trend guidance and is expected to remain volatile and stable in the short term. However, the high opening of CP further compresses the profit of PDH devices, and attention should be paid to the realization of the expected increase in unexpectedly shut-down devices in the first quarter. [8] Summary by Directory LPG Part Price & Spread - Domestic LPG spot prices and basis show regional differentiation in civil use trends, and import costs are relatively firm. The prices of propane in the international market show a certain degree of fluctuation, and the spot premium has significantly declined. [11] - The domestic LPG market price shows a pattern of strong performance in South China and stable performance in East China and Shandong. [15] - The regional quotes, premiums, and freight rates show that the CP official price opens high, but the premium falls. [23] - The propane price has declined month-on-month. [32] Supply - The US LPG shipment volume to Asia has increased month-on-month, while the Canadian LPG shipment volume remains relatively stable. The Middle East LPG shipment volume is tight in the spot market, and the shipments are delayed. The total LPG commodity volume in China has increased slightly, and the propane commodity volume has decreased in terms of import arrivals. [42][48][49][64][76] Demand & Inventory - In terms of chemical demand, the PDH operating rate has increased, while the MTBE operating rate has decreased. The domestic LPG refinery inventory is at a relatively low level compared to the same period last year, with limited month-on-month changes. The civil LPG refinery inventory has changed little month-on-month. The LPG terminal import inventory has significantly decreased month-on-month due to lower-than-expected arrivals. [80][82][90][99] Propylene Part Price & Spread - In the propylene industry chain, the cost-side propane first declines and then rises, while the propylene price remains stable. The prices of some downstream products of propylene have improved, and the profit of powder materials has improved. The international/US dollar price of propylene remains flat month-on-month, and the domestic price trend remains stable. [111][113][115][123] Balance Sheet - In the propylene industry chain, the PDH operating rate has increased month-on-month; the powder material operating rate has further declined, while the butanol and octanol operating rates have significantly increased. The supply and demand of propylene in the national and Shandong regions show certain changes, and the inventory has also changed accordingly. [135][138][144][150][155][157][162] Supply - The overall upstream operating rate of propylene is 75.0% (+0.9%). The refinery/main operating rate remains at 75%, and the local refinery operating rate is 56%. The ethylene cracking operating rate is 82.8% (-0.4%), and the cracking profit center has slightly improved month-on-month. The PDH capacity utilization rate is 76.4% (+1.4%), and the MTO capacity utilization rate is 87.8% (-1.7%). [167][169][179][184][189] Demand - The downstream PP capacity utilization rate is 76.9% (-2.5%), and the profit has stopped falling and slightly recovered month-on-month. The PP powder capacity utilization rate is 37.6% (+0.7%), and the spread between powder materials and propylene has continued to recover, with some devices returning. The PO capacity utilization rate is 74.1% (-2.0%), and the operating rate is expected to decline slightly further. The acrylonitrile capacity utilization rate is 80.3% (-0.3%), and the profit has increased month-on-month. The acrylic acid capacity utilization rate is 79.9% (+0.4%), and the profit has increased month-on-month. The n-butanol capacity utilization rate is 79.9% (+2.1%), and the profit has increased significantly month-on-month. The octanol capacity utilization rate is 85.0% (+3.0%), and the profit has increased month-on-month. The phenol-ketone capacity utilization rate is 78.5% (+2.5%), and the profit has increased slightly month-on-month. The ECH capacity utilization rate is 50.82% (+2.39%), and the price and profit have both increased month-on-month. [203][208][221][230][235][243][251][254][264][266][273] Downstream Inventory - The inventory of PP production enterprises, traders, and ports has changed slightly. The inventory of PP powder materials has also changed slightly. The inventory of acrylonitrile factories and ports remains stable, while the inventory of phenol and acetone in Jiangyin Port has decreased. [277][288][290]

Report Overview - Report Title: C3 Industry Chain Weekly Report - Report Date: December 28, 2025 - Report Author: Chen Xinchao - Report Contact: Zhao Shucen Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Views - **LPG**: In the short term, the supply is tight. The 1 - month CP is expected to rise, which will support propane prices. However, as maintenance in the Middle East ends and US exports increase, supply pressure remains. With low chemical profits and many PDH maintenance plans in Q1, downward - driving factors are emerging [3][4]. - **Propylene**: The spot supply - demand situation has tightened, and there is an expectation of a stop - falling and rebound. As some PP devices restart, the supply of propylene is expected to decrease, while the demand from downstream devices is expected to increase [6]. Summary by Section LPG Part Price & Spread - **Domestic Spot and Basis**: The domestic civil LPG price trend is weak, while the import cost is firm. The regional price difference between Shandong and East China has widened by 96 yuan/ton, and the regional price difference between South China and East China has increased by 24 yuan/ton [9]. - **Domestic Market Price**: The prices in South China are firm, while those in East China and Shandong have declined, with a significant decline in Shandong [14]. - **Regional Quotation, Premium, and Freight**: The Asian spot premium has slightly increased, and the CP FOB premium remains at a high level [20]. - **Propane Price**: Propane prices have maintained a firm trend [29]. Supply - **US LPG Shipment**: The shipment volume to Asia has increased month - on - month. The 4 - week moving average (MA4) of the US - Asia LPG shipment volume has increased by 30,000 tons [38][40]. - **Canadian LPG Shipment**: The overall shipment volume has decreased. The MA4 of the Canadian LPG shipment volume has decreased by 10,000 tons [44]. - **Middle East LPG Shipment**: Spot supply is tight, and shipments are delayed. The MA4 of the Middle East LPG shipment volume has decreased by 50,000 tons [45][49]. - **LPG Commodity Volume**: The total LPG commodity volume is 524,000 tons (+1.2%), and the civil LPG commodity volume is 219,000 tons (+0.4%) [59]. - **Propane Commodity Volume**: The import arrival volume has decreased by 286,000 tons month - on - month. The domestic refinery supply has slightly increased [70][72]. Demand & Inventory - **Chemical Demand**: The PDH operating rate has increased, while the MTBE operating rate has decreased. The PDH operating rate has increased by 1.4% to 76.4% [75]. - **Domestic Refinery Inventory**: The inventory is the same as in 2024, at a relatively low level in the same period, with limited month - on - month changes [77]. - **Civil LPG Refinery Inventory**: The month - on - month change is small [85]. - **Ether - after C4 Refinery Inventory**: The inventory has slightly increased [90][93]. - **LPG Terminal Import Inventory**: The arrival volume has fallen short of expectations, and the terminal inventory has decreased significantly month - on - month [95]. Propylene Part Price & Spread - **Propylene Industry Chain Price**: The cost - side propane is firm, while propylene is weak, and the PDH profit has declined month - on - month. The downstream trend has improved, with the powder profit remaining at the marginal level, and the PO and butanol - octanol profits have recovered [106][108]. - **Propylene Price**: The international/US - dollar price has remained flat month - on - month, while the domestic price has been weak [110][118]. Balance Sheet - **Propylene Industry Chain Operating Rate**: The PDH operating rate has increased month - on - month; the powder operating rate has further declined, while the butanol - octanol operating rate has increased significantly [128]. - **National Propylene Balance Sheet - Supply**: The overall supply situation and the operating rate changes of various production methods are analyzed. The PDH operating rate is expected to decline in Q1 [130]. - **National Propylene Balance Sheet - Demand**: The demand situation of various downstream products and their operating rate changes are presented [136]. - **Shandong Propylene Balance Sheet - Supply**: The supply situation and operating rate changes in Shandong are provided. The supply is expected to change with the restart of some devices [143]. - **Shandong Propylene Balance Sheet - Demand**: The demand situation and operating rate changes of downstream products in Shandong are shown [146]. - **Shandong Region (Including Lianyungang, Jiangsu, and Haiwei) Propylene Balance Sheet - Supply**: The supply situation and operating rate changes in this region are given [148]. - **Shandong Region (Including Lianyungang, Jiangsu, and Haiwei) Propylene Balance Sheet - Demand**: The demand situation and operating rate changes of downstream products in this region are presented [153]. Supply - **Overall Upstream Operating Rate**: The overall upstream operating rate of propylene is 75.0% (+0.9%) [157]. - **Refinery/Principal Operating Rate**: The principal refinery operating rate remains at 75%, and the independent refinery operating rate in Shandong is 56%, with profits similar to those in 2024 [159]. - **Cracking/Ethylene Cracking Operating Rate**: The ethylene cracking operating rate is 82.8% (- 0.4%), and the cracking profit center has slightly recovered month - on - month [167]. - **PDH Operating Rate**: The PDH capacity utilization rate is 76.4% (+1.4%). Due to many maintenance plans in January and February, the PDH operating rate in Q1 is expected to decline to around 70% [172][176]. - **MTO Operating Rate**: The MTO capacity utilization rate is 87.8% (- 1.7%) [177]. - **Propylene Import and Export**: The monthly import volume of propylene has increased, and the import profit has decreased [182][185]. Demand - **PP Operating Rate**: The PP capacity utilization rate is 76.9% (- 2.5%). Some devices in Shandong and Northeast China have had operating rate changes [192][196]. - **PP Profit**: The PP price has stopped falling, and the external procurement profit has slightly recovered month - on - month [197]. - **PP Powder Operating Rate**: The PP powder capacity utilization rate is 37.6% (+0.7%); the powder - propylene price difference has continued to recover, and some devices have resumed operation [213]. - **PO Operating Rate**: The PO capacity utilization rate is 74.1% (- 2.0%). Some devices have stopped or reduced production, and the operating rate is expected to decline slightly next week [223][227]. - **PO Profit**: The PO price has increased, and the profit has improved [229][234]. - **Acrylonitrile Operating Rate**: The acrylonitrile capacity utilization rate is 80.3% (- 0.3%). One device in Shandong has stopped for maintenance [236][238]. - **Acrylonitrile Profit**: The acrylonitrile profit has increased [237][240]. - **Acrylic Acid Operating Rate**: The acrylic acid capacity utilization rate is 79.9% (+0.4%). One device in Shandong has stopped for maintenance [241][247]. - **Acrylic Acid Profit**: The acrylic acid profit has increased [243][244]. - **n - Butanol Operating Rate**: The n - butanol capacity utilization rate is 79.9% (+2.1%). Some devices have had short - term stops and restarts [249][253]. - **n - Butanol Profit**: The n - butanol profit has increased significantly [252][253]. - **Octanol Operating Rate**: The octanol capacity utilization rate is 85.0% (+3.0%). Some devices have started up or had unstable operations [255][258]. - **Octanol Profit**: The octanol profit has increased significantly [257]. - **Phenol - Ketone Operating Rate**: The phenol - ketone capacity utilization rate is 78.5% (+2.5%). Some devices have restarted or had short - term fluctuations [260][266]. - **Phenol - Ketone Profit**: The phenol - ketone profit has increased [264][265]. - **ECH Operating Rate**: The ECH operating rate is 50.8% (+2.4%) [271]. Downstream Inventory - **PP and PP Powder Inventory**: The inventory of PP production enterprises, traders, and ports has changed slightly. The PP powder inventory has also changed slightly [275][284]. - **Other Downstream Inventory**: The inventories of phenol, acetone, acrylonitrile, etc. in ports and factories have changed to varying degrees [286][287].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Report's Core View - The cost of crude oil is expected to fluctuate narrowly, providing limited support to the PP cost side. The chemical configuration in the market is differentiated, and the hedging logic of aromatics - olefins is continuously strengthened. With no new production before the 2605 contract on the supply side, the game of existing supply and demand intensifies. On the demand side, new orders from downstream industries weaken, and downstream factories' procurement remains cautious, leading to weak demand. Overall, the fundamentals at the end of the year provide limited support. Although the PDH profit is at a new low, upstream companies have locked in raw materials and made some pre - sales earlier, so the willingness to reduce production is not strong. It is expected that PP will continue to be weak. With the deep loss of PDH profit, attention should be paid to the marginal changes of PDH devices [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing price of PP2605 yesterday was 6278, with a daily increase of 1.95%. The trading volume was 566,939, and the position decreased by 18,588. The 05 - contract basis was - 158 (compared to - 138 the previous day), and the 05 - 09 contract spread was - 22 (compared to - 38 the previous day) [1] - **Spot Price**: The spot prices in North China, East China, and South China were 6020 yuan/ton, 6120 yuan/ton, and 6220 yuan/ton respectively yesterday, showing an increase compared to the previous day [1] Spot News - The futures market rebounded with fluctuations, but it had limited impact on the spot market. At the end of the month, traders focused on fulfilling their planned volumes and actively sold goods, with limited increase in quotes. Downstream industries were still worried about the future market and purchased cautiously. The daily trading volume in the market was lower than that of PE. Warehouse receipts remained at a high level, and new orders from downstream industries were insufficient. Some PDH devices are planned to stop production in January, but the scale is not large. The end - of - year demand lacks flexibility, and the industry's willingness to hold goods is limited in the continuous decline, putting pressure on the basis. The prices in the PP US - dollar market partially declined. Overseas suppliers were not enthusiastic about offering prices to China, and downstream industries continued to make rigid - demand purchases, with no improvement in trading [1] Market Condition Analysis - The cost of crude oil is expected to fluctuate narrowly, providing limited support to the PP cost side. The chemical configuration in the market is differentiated, and the hedging logic of aromatics - olefins is continuously strengthened. With no new production before the 2605 contract on the supply side, the game of existing supply and demand intensifies. On the demand side, new orders from downstream industries weaken, and downstream factories' procurement remains cautious, leading to weak demand. Overall, the fundamentals at the end of the year provide limited support. Although the PDH profit is at a new low, upstream companies have locked in raw materials and made some pre - sales earlier, so the willingness to reduce production is not strong. It is expected that PP will continue to be weak. With the deep loss of PDH profit, attention should be paid to the marginal changes of PDH devices [2] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of PP is 0 [3]