1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints - The current core contradiction affecting LPG price trends includes the volatile crude oil market on the cost - side, with geopolitical factors dominating in the short - term. The outer - market propane is oscillating, and the domestic fundamentals are relatively stable compared to last week but with significant price fluctuations due to the US - Iran situation. The market is expected to be in an oscillating state, and attention should be paid to the risks above [1][2][19]. - In the long - term, the supply is expected to be resilient next year, while the demand growth in China and India, the main growth engines of Asian LPG demand, is expected to slow down [14]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Core Contradiction and Strategy Suggestion 3.1.1 Core Contradiction - Cost - side: The crude oil market is oscillating. In the medium - to - long - term, it is affected by both supply surplus and geopolitical factors, with geopolitics being dominant in the short - term. The US - Iran situation has caused the oil price to fluctuate this week [1]. - Outer - market propane: It is oscillating. The shipping volume in the Middle East is neutral, and the arrival premium is still high. In the US, supply has declined due to the cold wave, and inventory is in a destocking state [1]. - Domestic fundamentals: The supply remains low, the arrival volume is not high, and the port inventory has slightly increased. The demand is weak due to the maintenance of PDH devices. The market is affected by the US - Iran situation, and if the situation escalates, it will have a significant impact on the supply side [2]. 3.1.2 Trading Strategy Suggestion - **Market Positioning**: The market is in an oscillating state, and the price range of PG03 is 3800 - 4500 [19]. - **Basis Strategy**: Wait and see, as the market is volatile due to geopolitical uncertainties [19]. - **Calendar Spread Strategy**: Go for a reverse spread at high prices. The 03 contract is the forced cancellation month, and the short - term warehouse receipt volume is not large [20]. - **Hedging Arbitrage Strategy**: Pay attention to the opportunities of internal - external price differences [20]. 3.1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Suggestion - **LPG Price Range Forecast**: The price range of LPG is 3800 - 4500, the current volatility (20 - day rolling) is 25.84%, and the historical percentage of the current volatility (3 - year) is 53.65% [21]. - **Hedging Strategy**: For inventory management, when the inventory is high, short PG futures to lock in profits. For procurement management, when the procurement inventory is low, buy PG futures at low prices to lock in procurement costs [21][23]. 3.2 This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Attention Events 3.2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Negative Information**: PDH has been in maintenance this week, with an operating rate of about 62%. Many devices such as Jinneng, Juzhengyuan, and Zhongjing are in maintenance [23]. 3.2.2 Next Week's Important Events - February 10: US January New York Fed 1 - year inflation expectation. - February 11: China CPI/PPI; US January unemployment rate. - February 13: US January seasonally adjusted CPI [29]. 3.3 Disk Interpretation 3.3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - **Domestic Market**: The PG03 contract oscillated this week. The net position of the main profitable seats increased, and there were no obvious changes in the top 5 long and short positions in the dragon - tiger list. The net short position of the profitable seats decreased slightly, the net long position of foreign capital increased slightly, and the net long position of retail investors decreased slightly. Technically, it is still advisable to go long at low prices [25]. - **Foreign Market**: FEI M1 closed at 545.5 US dollars/ton (- 27.68), with a premium of 53.5 US dollars/ton; CP M1 closed at 535 US dollars/ton (- 10), with a CP premium of - 15 US dollars/ton; MB M1 closed at 339 US dollars/ton (+ 7.59). Affected by the US - Iran negotiation plan, the outer - market propane gave back some risk premiums [33]. 3.3.2 Basis and Calendar Spread Structure - The LPG inter - month structure is still in a BACK structure, and the 3 - 4 month spread closed at - 303 yuan/ton [31]. - This week, FEI M1 - M2 was 28.02 US dollars/ton; CP M1 - M2 was 13.5 US dollars/ton; MB M1 - M2 was 2.6 US dollars/ton. The calendar spreads of CP and MB fluctuated greatly, and the near - month of CP gave back some geopolitical premiums, and the calendar spread weakened [42]. 3.4 Valuation and Profit Analysis 3.4.1 Industrial Chain Upstream and Downstream Profit Tracking - **Upstream Profit**: This week, the gross profit of major refineries was 771 yuan/ton (+ 111), and the gross profit of Shandong local refineries was 143 yuan/ton (- 23). The profit of local refineries continued to shrink [48]. - **Downstream Profit**: The PDH profit with FEI as the cost was - 443 yuan/ton, and the PDH profit with CP as the cost was - 192 yuan/ton, still in a loss state. The MTBE gas - fractionation profit was - 19.75 yuan/ton, the isomerization profit was 175 yuan/ton, and the alkylated oil profit was - 99.4 yuan/ton, with the profits of MTBE and alkylated oil strengthening [50]. 3.4.2 Import and Export Profit Tracking This week, the import profit was oscillating, mainly due to the large fluctuations in outer - market prices [53]. 3.5 Supply, Demand, and Inventory 3.5.1 Overseas Supply and Demand - **US Supply and Demand**: This period, production decreased due to weather, demand changed little, exports increased slightly, and inventory destocked faster with the decline in production, but the overall inventory level was still high [60]. - **Middle East Supply**: In 2025, the Middle East exported 48463 KT of LPG, a year - on - year increase of 2.43%. In January 2026, it exported 4043 KT, a year - on - year decrease of 0.41%. The shipping volume in recent weeks has been low [69]. - **India Supply and Demand**: From January to December, India's LPG demand was 331774 KT, a year - on - year increase of 6.67%. In 2025, LPG imports were 23229 KT, a year - on - year increase of 8.12%. In January 2026, imports were 2204 KT, a year - on - year increase of 23.68% [72]. - **South Korea Supply and Demand**: South Korea's LPG demand has no obvious seasonality. In 2025, it imported 8434 KT of LPG, a year - on - year decrease of 2.56%. In January 2026, it imported 762 KT, a year - on - year increase of 13.32%. Since the fourth quarter, the cracking economy of LPG relative to naphtha has not been good [80]. - **Japan Supply and Demand**: Japan is highly dependent on imported LPG, and its demand and imports have obvious seasonality. In January 2026, Japan imported 1004 KT of LPG, a year - on - year decrease of 4.78%, and its LPG inventory was at a new low year - on - year [83]. 3.5.2 Domestic Supply and Demand - **Domestic Supply - Demand Balance**: Supply is expected to remain high, but the external sales volume is not high. Import volume is not high. Demand shows a decrease in chemical demand and an increase in combustion demand. In the first quarter, chemical demand weakens marginally due to PDH maintenance. Inventory is destocking, mainly at the port [86]. - **Domestic Supply**: The operating rate of major refineries is 81.81% (+ 1.79%); the operating rate of independent refineries is 51.68% (- 1.92%), and the utilization rate excluding large refineries is 47.28% (- 2.14%). The domestic LPG external sales volume is 54.88 tons (+ 0.51), and the arrival volume is 50.8 tons (+ 1.3). The factory inventory rate is 24.21% (- 0.39%), and the port inventory is 201.8 tons (+ 14.2) [89]. - **Domestic Demand**: - **PDH Demand**: Devices such as Jinneng, Zhongjing, and Juzhengyuan are in maintenance [100]. - **MTBE Demand**: There were no device changes this week, and the internal - external price difference was oscillating [104]. - **Alkylated Oil Demand**: Jingmen Yuchu was in maintenance until the end of January, and Puyang Zhongwei was newly in maintenance [112]. - **Combustion Demand**: There is no specific data, but the report mentions that combustion demand increases [86].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The current core contradictions affecting the LPG price trend include cost - end oil price pressure from supply surplus and geopolitical issues, with a recent downward shift in the price center; the release of the CP November contract price with a decline; a slight inventory reduction of US C3 but still at a historical high; and relatively stable domestic fundamentals with a slight increase in supply and strong chemical demand [3]. - The short - term domestic fundamentals are neutral to positive, with low expected arrivals and high seasonal开工 of PDH and MTBE [3]. - Negative factors include the downward shift of the oil price center and relatively high domestic valuation [4]. Summary by Directory LPG Price and Volatility - The monthly price range prediction of LPG is 4000 - 4500, the current 20 - day rolling volatility is 14.05%, and the historical percentage of the current volatility in 3 years is 4.00% [2]. LPG Hedging Strategies Inventory Management - When inventory is high and worried about price decline, for a long spot position, it is recommended to short PG2601 futures with a 25% hedging ratio in the range of 4300 - 4400 to lock in profits; also, sell PG2601C4400 call options with a 25% ratio in the range of 60 - 70 to collect premiums and lock in the selling price if the spot price rises [2]. Procurement Management - When the procurement of regular inventory is low and based on order - based procurement, for a short spot position, it is recommended to buy PG2601 futures with a 25% hedging ratio in the range of 4000 - 4100 to lock in procurement costs; also, sell PG2601P4000 put options with a 25% ratio in the range of 30 - 50 to collect premiums and lock in the spot purchase price if the PG price falls [2]. Industry Data - A large amount of data on prices, spreads, monthly spreads, ratios, and profits of various LPG - related products are presented, including daily and weekly changes [7]. Price Seasonality - Seasonal charts of various prices such as MB M1, NWE C3 M1, FEI, CP, LPG futures, and LPG cheapest delivery products are provided [9][10][11]. Spread Seasonality - Seasonal charts of spreads like FEI - MOPJ M1, PG - FEI, PG - CP, etc. are shown [17][19][20]. Monthly Spread Seasonality - Seasonal charts of monthly spreads such as LPG01 - 02, LPG12 - 01, FEI M1 - M2, etc. are presented [33][34][28]. Ratio Seasonality - Seasonal charts of ratios such as FEI/Brent, MB/WTI, FEI/MOPJ M1, etc. are provided [37][39]. Profit Seasonality - Seasonal charts of profits including LPG import profit - FEI, LPG import profit - CP, PDH profit, and various spot profits are shown [44][45][46]. Freight Seasonality - Seasonal charts of freight from the Middle East to the Far East, the US to Europe, and the US Gulf to the Far East are presented [62][63]. Other Seasonality - A seasonal chart of the water level of the Panama Canal - Gatun Lake is provided [66].

Report Overview - **Report Title**: LPG Industry Risk Management Daily Report - **Date**: November 20, 2025 - **Analyst**: Dai Yifan (Investment Consulting Certificate: Z0015428) - **Research Assistant**: Shen Weiwei (Futures Practitioner Certificate: F03140197) - **Contact Email**: shenweiwei@nawaa.com - **Investment Consulting Business Qualification**: CSRC License [2011] No. 1290 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The core contradictions affecting LPG price trends include cost - end crude oil under supply - surplus pressure and geopolitical disturbances, with weekly crude prices oscillating between $62 - $66; the release of the November CP contract price with propane at $475/ton (-20) and butane at $460/ton (-15), indicating supply - side pressure; the start of propane destocking in the US with inventory still at a historical high; and relatively stable domestic fundamentals with low arrivals and a slight contraction in the supply side, while chemical demand remains strong in the short - term with PDH operating at a 70% - 75% rate despite compressed profits [3]. - The signing of a 2026 LPG supply agreement between Indian state - owned oil companies and the US, involving 2.2 million tons of annual imports, is a positive factor for the US supply side [3]. - Negative factors include continuous losses at the domestic PDH end, which may cause negative feedback, and the contraction of Asian cracking profits potentially reducing the demand for PG as a cracking substitute, with South Korean companies having maintenance and load - reduction plans in November and December [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 LPG Price and Volatility - The monthly price range forecast for LPG is 4000 - 4500 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 12.86% and a historical 3 - year volatility percentage of 1.82% [2]. 3.2 LPG Hedging Strategies 3.2.1 Inventory Management - When inventory is high and there are concerns about price drops, for long - position spot exposure, it is recommended to short PG2601 futures at a 25% hedging ratio in the 4400 - 4500 yuan/ton range to lock in profits and cover production costs; also, sell PG2601C4400 call options at a 25% ratio in the 60 - 70 range to collect premiums and reduce costs [2]. 3.2.2 Procurement Management - When procurement inventory is low and procurement is based on orders, for short - position spot exposure, it is recommended to buy PG2601 futures at a 25% hedging ratio in the 4000 - 4100 yuan/ton range to lock in procurement costs; also, sell PG26014000 put options at a 25% ratio in the 30 - 50 range to collect premiums and reduce procurement costs [2]. 3.3 Industry Data Summary - A large amount of data on LPG - related prices, spreads, month - spreads, ratios, and profits are presented, including the prices of Brent, WTI, various LPG benchmarks (MOPJ, FEI, CP, etc.), their daily and weekly changes, and different profit calculations such as import profits, PDH profits, and cracking profits [6]. 3.4 Seasonal Data - Seasonal data for various indicators are provided, including price seasonality of LPG and its related benchmarks, spread seasonality, month - spread seasonality, ratio seasonality, profit seasonality, and freight seasonality [8][10][13][15][16][25][32][33][39][43][57]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Views - The core contradictions affecting the LPG price trend include cost - end crude oil facing supply - surplus pressure and geopolitical disturbances, with the current price oscillating around $65, and OPEC maintaining an increasing production state [2] - The November CP contract price was announced, with propane at $475/ton (-$20) and butane at $460/ton (-$15), better than expected. The equivalent RMB landed cost is about 4394 yuan/ton for propane and 4276 yuan/ton for butane [2] - US propane inventories continued to accumulate this week, reaching a historical high and waiting for an inventory inflection point [2] - The State Council adjusted tariff - adding measures on November 10, 2025. The 24% tariff on US imports will be suspended for one year, and the 10% tariff on PG will remain, which helps stabilize logistics [3] - During the Sino - US talks this week, an agreement was reached on issues such as tariffs and export controls, and the Sino - US economic and trade friction was suspended [4] - The domestic LPG fundamentals are relatively stable. Supply increased this week, while demand remained stable. However, due to the rise in propane price and the decline in PL/PP price, PDH profits were significantly compressed. Continuous or deepening losses may cause negative feedback [4] - PDH losses may cause negative feedback, and propane cracking profits have also shrunk below zero [5] Summary by Related Catalogs LPG Price Range Prediction - The predicted monthly price range for LPG is 4000 - 4500 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 22.37% and a 3 - year historical volatility percentage of 35.54% [1] LPG Hedging Strategy Inventory Management - When inventory is high and there are concerns about price drops, for a long - position in the spot market, it is recommended to short PG2512 futures at 4400 - 4500 yuan/ton with a 25% hedging ratio to lock in profits and cover production costs; also, sell PG2512C4400 call options at 60 - 70 yuan with a 25% hedging ratio to collect premiums and lock in the selling price if the spot price rises [1] Procurement Management - When the regular procurement inventory is low and procurement is based on orders, for a short - position in the spot market, it is recommended to buy PG2512 futures at around 4000 yuan/ton with a 25% hedging ratio to lock in procurement costs; also, sell PG2512P4000 put options at 50 - 70 yuan with a 25% hedging ratio to collect premiums and lock in the spot buying price if the PG price drops [1] Industry Data Summary - The report provides price, spread, monthly spread, price ratio, and profit data for various LPG - related products on different dates, including Brent, WTI, MOPJ, etc., along with their daily and weekly changes [7] Seasonal Data - The report presents seasonal data for prices, spreads, monthly spreads, price ratios, profits, and freight rates of various LPG - related products, such as LPG futures, FEI, CP, etc., from 2021 to 2025 [9][11][17]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating Core Viewpoints - The current core contradictions affecting the LPG price trend include cost - side crude oil being under supply - surplus pressure and geopolitical disturbances, leading to increased volatility; the CP October contract price dropping unexpectedly, with propane at $495/ton (-$25) and butane at $475/ton (-$15), and the November price expected to decline further; Sino - US relations being uncertain despite an overall positive trend; the domestic LPG fundamental situation having minor changes, with increased civil gas supply suppressing spot prices, stable chemical demand, and weak combustion demand. There are also some positive factors such as the good Sino - US negotiations and the demand support from FN spread and relatively good propane cracking profit [4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs LPG Price Range Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for LPG is 4000 - 4500, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 21.85% and a 3 - year historical percentage of 37.75% [1] LPG Hedging Strategy Inventory Management - When inventory is high and there are concerns about price drops, for a long spot position, it is recommended to short PG2512 futures to lock in profits and cover production costs, with a 25% hedging ratio and an entry range of 4400 - 4500. Also, sell PG2512C4400 call options to collect premiums and reduce costs, with a 25% hedging ratio and an entry range of 60 - 70 [1] Procurement Management - When the regular procurement inventory is low and procurement is based on orders, for a short spot position, it is recommended to buy PG2512 futures at a low price on the disk to lock in procurement costs, with a 25% hedging ratio and an entry range of 3800 - 4000. Also, sell PG2512P4000 put options to collect premiums and reduce procurement costs, with a 25% hedging ratio and an entry range of 50 - 70 [1] Industry Data Summary - Various data including prices, spreads, monthly spreads, ratios, and profits are presented. For example, on October 29, 2025, Brent was at $64.3, WTI at $60.36, and the LPG main contract closing price was 4312. There are also details about differentials such as FEI - MOPJ M1, LPG - FEI, etc., and profit data like盘面进口利润 - FEI and Asian propane cracking profit [5] Seasonal Data - There are numerous seasonal data presented, such as FEI M1, CP M1, MB M1, NWE C3 M1 price seasonality; FEI, CP, MB, LPG cheapest delivery product price and basis seasonality; various spread, monthly spread, ratio, and profit seasonality; and freight and Panama Canal water - level seasonality [7][10][59]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The core contradictions affecting the LPG price trend include cost - end crude oil fluctuations due to supply surplus and geopolitical issues, an unexpected decline in the CP October contract price, the recurrence of Sino - US contradictions, and a loose domestic market with stable supply - demand and weak combustion demand [2] - Bullish factors include a small rebound in the crude oil market, the expansion of PDH profits supporting demand, and the widening FN spread attracting cracking demand [3] - Bearish factors are the persistent supply surplus of crude oil in the fourth quarter and the weak performance of both the outer - market propane and domestic spot [2] Summary by Related Catalogs LPG Price and Volatility - The monthly price range prediction for LPG is 3800 - 4200, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 21.39% and a 3 - year historical percentage of 37.37% [1] LPG Hedging Strategies Inventory Management - For high inventory and fear of price drops, sell PG2511 futures at a 25% hedging ratio in the 4400 - 4500 range to lock in profits and sell PG2511C4400 call options at a 25% ratio in the 60 - 70 range to reduce costs [1] Procurement Management - For low procurement inventory, buy PG2511 futures at a 25% hedging ratio in the 3800 - 4000 range to lock in procurement costs and sell PG2511P3800 put options at a 25% ratio in the 50 - 70 range to reduce costs [1] Industry Data Price - Brent crude was at $63.39 on October 13, 2025, up $1.3 from the previous day and down $2.76 from the week - ago level. WTI was at $59.14, up $1.3 and down $2.88 respectively [5] - LPG's main contract closed at 4082 yuan/ton on October 13, 2025, up 12 yuan from the previous day and down 155 yuan from the week - ago level [5] Spread - FEI - MOPJ M1 was - 86.30 on October 13, 2025, down 19.43 from the previous day and 14.67 from the week - ago level [5] - LPG - FEI was 49.85, up 150.25 from the previous day and 198.37 from the week - ago level [5] Monthly Spread - LPG11 - 12 was 107 on October 13, 2025, up 29 from the previous day and the week - ago level [5] - FEI M1 - M2 was - 13.63, down 0.38 from the previous day and up 0.63 from the week - ago level [5] Ratio - MB/WTI was 0.44 on October 13, 2025, down 0.03 from the previous day and up 0.01 from the week - ago level [5] - FEI/Brent was 0.60, down 0.03 from the previous day and 0.02 from the week - ago level [5] Disk Profit - The disk import profit - FEI was - 400.55 on October 13, 2025, up 14.53 from the previous day and down 152.04 from the week - ago level [5] - The PDH disk profit - PG was 278.7, down 42.8 from the previous day and up 19.25 from the week - ago level [5] Spot Profit - The Asian naphtha cracking profit was - 32.4996 on October 13, 2025, up 7.99 from the previous day and 17.54 from the week - ago level [5] - The Asian propane cracking profit was 47.0266, up 30.56 from the previous day and 53.52 from the week - ago level [5] Freight - The freight from the Middle East to the Far East was 62.667 on October 13, 2025, down 1 from the previous day and 7.5 from the week - ago level [5] - The freight from the US to Europe was 67.5, down 1.5 from the previous day and 11.625 from the week - ago level [5]