LPG产业风险管理日报 2025/11/20 戴一帆（投资咨询证书：Z0015428） 研究助理：沈玮玮 期货从业证号：F03140197 联系邮箱：shenweiwei@nawaa.com 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 LPG价格区间预测 | | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分比（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | LPG | 4000-4500 | 12.86% | 1.82% | source： 同花顺,南华研究 LPG套保策略表 | 行为导向 | 情景分析 | 现货敞口 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方向 | 套保比例（%） | 建议入场区间 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 库存管理 | 库存过高，担心价格 下跌 | 多 | 为了防止存货跌价损失，可以根据企业的 库存情况，做空PG期货来锁定利润，弥补 企业的生产成本 | PG2601 | 卖出 | 25% | 4400-4500 | | | | | 卖出看涨期权收取权利金降低 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Views - The core contradictions affecting the LPG price trend include cost - end crude oil facing supply - surplus pressure and geopolitical disturbances, with the current price oscillating around $65, and OPEC maintaining an increasing production state [2] - The November CP contract price was announced, with propane at $475/ton (-$20) and butane at $460/ton (-$15), better than expected. The equivalent RMB landed cost is about 4394 yuan/ton for propane and 4276 yuan/ton for butane [2] - US propane inventories continued to accumulate this week, reaching a historical high and waiting for an inventory inflection point [2] - The State Council adjusted tariff - adding measures on November 10, 2025. The 24% tariff on US imports will be suspended for one year, and the 10% tariff on PG will remain, which helps stabilize logistics [3] - During the Sino - US talks this week, an agreement was reached on issues such as tariffs and export controls, and the Sino - US economic and trade friction was suspended [4] - The domestic LPG fundamentals are relatively stable. Supply increased this week, while demand remained stable. However, due to the rise in propane price and the decline in PL/PP price, PDH profits were significantly compressed. Continuous or deepening losses may cause negative feedback [4] - PDH losses may cause negative feedback, and propane cracking profits have also shrunk below zero [5] Summary by Related Catalogs LPG Price Range Prediction - The predicted monthly price range for LPG is 4000 - 4500 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 22.37% and a 3 - year historical volatility percentage of 35.54% [1] LPG Hedging Strategy Inventory Management - When inventory is high and there are concerns about price drops, for a long - position in the spot market, it is recommended to short PG2512 futures at 4400 - 4500 yuan/ton with a 25% hedging ratio to lock in profits and cover production costs; also, sell PG2512C4400 call options at 60 - 70 yuan with a 25% hedging ratio to collect premiums and lock in the selling price if the spot price rises [1] Procurement Management - When the regular procurement inventory is low and procurement is based on orders, for a short - position in the spot market, it is recommended to buy PG2512 futures at around 4000 yuan/ton with a 25% hedging ratio to lock in procurement costs; also, sell PG2512P4000 put options at 50 - 70 yuan with a 25% hedging ratio to collect premiums and lock in the spot buying price if the PG price drops [1] Industry Data Summary - The report provides price, spread, monthly spread, price ratio, and profit data for various LPG - related products on different dates, including Brent, WTI, MOPJ, etc., along with their daily and weekly changes [7] Seasonal Data - The report presents seasonal data for prices, spreads, monthly spreads, price ratios, profits, and freight rates of various LPG - related products, such as LPG futures, FEI, CP, etc., from 2021 to 2025 [9][11][17]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating Core Viewpoints - The current core contradictions affecting the LPG price trend include cost - side crude oil being under supply - surplus pressure and geopolitical disturbances, leading to increased volatility; the CP October contract price dropping unexpectedly, with propane at $495/ton (-$25) and butane at $475/ton (-$15), and the November price expected to decline further; Sino - US relations being uncertain despite an overall positive trend; the domestic LPG fundamental situation having minor changes, with increased civil gas supply suppressing spot prices, stable chemical demand, and weak combustion demand. There are also some positive factors such as the good Sino - US negotiations and the demand support from FN spread and relatively good propane cracking profit [4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs LPG Price Range Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for LPG is 4000 - 4500, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 21.85% and a 3 - year historical percentage of 37.75% [1] LPG Hedging Strategy Inventory Management - When inventory is high and there are concerns about price drops, for a long spot position, it is recommended to short PG2512 futures to lock in profits and cover production costs, with a 25% hedging ratio and an entry range of 4400 - 4500. Also, sell PG2512C4400 call options to collect premiums and reduce costs, with a 25% hedging ratio and an entry range of 60 - 70 [1] Procurement Management - When the regular procurement inventory is low and procurement is based on orders, for a short spot position, it is recommended to buy PG2512 futures at a low price on the disk to lock in procurement costs, with a 25% hedging ratio and an entry range of 3800 - 4000. Also, sell PG2512P4000 put options to collect premiums and reduce procurement costs, with a 25% hedging ratio and an entry range of 50 - 70 [1] Industry Data Summary - Various data including prices, spreads, monthly spreads, ratios, and profits are presented. For example, on October 29, 2025, Brent was at $64.3, WTI at $60.36, and the LPG main contract closing price was 4312. There are also details about differentials such as FEI - MOPJ M1, LPG - FEI, etc., and profit data like盘面进口利润 - FEI and Asian propane cracking profit [5] Seasonal Data - There are numerous seasonal data presented, such as FEI M1, CP M1, MB M1, NWE C3 M1 price seasonality; FEI, CP, MB, LPG cheapest delivery product price and basis seasonality; various spread, monthly spread, ratio, and profit seasonality; and freight and Panama Canal water - level seasonality [7][10][59]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The core contradictions affecting the LPG price trend include cost - end crude oil fluctuations due to supply surplus and geopolitical issues, an unexpected decline in the CP October contract price, the recurrence of Sino - US contradictions, and a loose domestic market with stable supply - demand and weak combustion demand [2] - Bullish factors include a small rebound in the crude oil market, the expansion of PDH profits supporting demand, and the widening FN spread attracting cracking demand [3] - Bearish factors are the persistent supply surplus of crude oil in the fourth quarter and the weak performance of both the outer - market propane and domestic spot [2] Summary by Related Catalogs LPG Price and Volatility - The monthly price range prediction for LPG is 3800 - 4200, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 21.39% and a 3 - year historical percentage of 37.37% [1] LPG Hedging Strategies Inventory Management - For high inventory and fear of price drops, sell PG2511 futures at a 25% hedging ratio in the 4400 - 4500 range to lock in profits and sell PG2511C4400 call options at a 25% ratio in the 60 - 70 range to reduce costs [1] Procurement Management - For low procurement inventory, buy PG2511 futures at a 25% hedging ratio in the 3800 - 4000 range to lock in procurement costs and sell PG2511P3800 put options at a 25% ratio in the 50 - 70 range to reduce costs [1] Industry Data Price - Brent crude was at $63.39 on October 13, 2025, up $1.3 from the previous day and down $2.76 from the week - ago level. WTI was at $59.14, up $1.3 and down $2.88 respectively [5] - LPG's main contract closed at 4082 yuan/ton on October 13, 2025, up 12 yuan from the previous day and down 155 yuan from the week - ago level [5] Spread - FEI - MOPJ M1 was - 86.30 on October 13, 2025, down 19.43 from the previous day and 14.67 from the week - ago level [5] - LPG - FEI was 49.85, up 150.25 from the previous day and 198.37 from the week - ago level [5] Monthly Spread - LPG11 - 12 was 107 on October 13, 2025, up 29 from the previous day and the week - ago level [5] - FEI M1 - M2 was - 13.63, down 0.38 from the previous day and up 0.63 from the week - ago level [5] Ratio - MB/WTI was 0.44 on October 13, 2025, down 0.03 from the previous day and up 0.01 from the week - ago level [5] - FEI/Brent was 0.60, down 0.03 from the previous day and 0.02 from the week - ago level [5] Disk Profit - The disk import profit - FEI was - 400.55 on October 13, 2025, up 14.53 from the previous day and down 152.04 from the week - ago level [5] - The PDH disk profit - PG was 278.7, down 42.8 from the previous day and up 19.25 from the week - ago level [5] Spot Profit - The Asian naphtha cracking profit was - 32.4996 on October 13, 2025, up 7.99 from the previous day and 17.54 from the week - ago level [5] - The Asian propane cracking profit was 47.0266, up 30.56 from the previous day and 53.52 from the week - ago level [5] Freight - The freight from the Middle East to the Far East was 62.667 on October 13, 2025, down 1 from the previous day and 7.5 from the week - ago level [5] - The freight from the US to Europe was 67.5, down 1.5 from the previous day and 11.625 from the week - ago level [5]