M1增速修复

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5月金融数据点评:信贷分化的背后
Tebon Securities· 2025-06-16 09:03
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - In May, the total financial data was relatively stable, but the structure was differentiated, and the credit sub - items were lower than expected. Government bonds were the main contributor to the social financing growth rate, offsetting the weak credit growth. The real estate on the household side was still in the process of recovery and showed stability, while the corporate side was more significantly differentiated. Short - term loans increased due to improved corporate expectations, and medium - and long - term loans were still affected by debt replacement. The M1 growth rate recovered due to the base effect. In the future, attention should be paid to the household consumption recovery path, policy support for the real estate market, and the possible slowdown of government bond issuance in the second half of the year [4] - The bond market is currently in a verification period of multiple factors. Attention should be paid to the main logic of the liability shortage and trading opportunities brought by short - term factor changes. There may be trading opportunities due to the central bank's bond - buying expectations and tariff policy changes, but also technical short - term risks caused by over - buying corrections [4] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Social Financing Growth Rate Remains Stable, and Bond Financing Provides Support - The social financing growth rate was stable compared with the previous month, continuing the high - growth level of the previous month. Bond financing provided support, while the loan side had some drag. The government bond issuance progress was fast this year, especially the issuance of special treasury bonds. The issuance of enterprise bonds also improved with the issuance of science and technology innovation bonds, which positively contributed to social financing [4][8] - In May, the social financing growth rate was flat month - on - month, slightly lower than expected. The new social financing scale was 228.94 billion yuan, with a year - on - year increase of 22.71 billion yuan and a year - on - year growth rate of 8.70%. Government bonds and enterprise bonds were the main drivers. Government bonds increased by 146.33 billion yuan, contributing 0.06 percentage points to the year - on - year growth rate of social financing scale. Enterprise bonds increased by 14.96 billion yuan, also positively contributing to the growth rate. The stock growth rate of off - balance - sheet financing was still positive, at a high level in the past year [4][11] 2. Household Credit is Relatively Stable, with Corporate Short - Term Loans Increasing and Medium - and Long - Term Loans Weak - In May, credit was lower than expected, and the structure was differentiated. Household medium - and long - term loans increased continuously, while debt resolution restricted corporate medium - and long - term loans. The new RMB loans were 62 billion yuan, with a year - on - year decrease of 33 billion yuan, and the credit balance growth rate dropped by 0.1 percentage points to 7.10% [4][19][21] - In the household sector, short - term loans decreased year - on - year, while medium - and long - term loans increased year - on - year. In the corporate sector, short - term loans were higher than the same period in the past two years, possibly due to improved corporate expectations after the easing of Sino - US trade relations. Medium - and long - term loans were weak, possibly due to the lagged effect of debt resolution. Corporate bond issuance also supplemented the medium - and long - term capital needs to some extent [4][19] 3. M1 Recovers Upward under the Low - Base Effect, and New Non - Bank Deposits Remain at a High Level - In May, the M1 growth rate widened to 2.30%, and the growth rate difference between M2 and M1 narrowed. The new RMB deposits were 218 billion yuan. The increase in the new scale of each department's deposits compared with the same period last year may be related to the base effect of the "manual interest compensation" last year. The M1 growth rate was supported by the base effect, financial policies, and the arrival of debt - resolution funds [33]