Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The central bank's current policy attitude is similar to that in Q4 2023, with a reduced desire to promote the growth of M2 and social financing. However, the current situation is due to the decline in government bond net financing, and the central bank has no intention to tighten liquidity actively but lacks the willingness to relax it. With the approaching of year - end important meetings, the policy's demand for stable growth may become clearer, and attention should be paid to whether the monetary policy attitude will change [24]. - The funds rate center this week was higher than expected. If the central bank's policy framework remains unchanged, the funds price may loosen marginally at the end of November and next week [28][49]. - The market's attention to the winning bid rate of the repurchase - type reverse repurchase has increased. The central bank may not intentionally raise the winning bid rate, but a significant decline may still require a policy rate cut [20][21]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. Money Market 1.1 This Week's Funds Review - The central bank's 7 - day reverse repurchase had a net injection of 554 billion yuan this week, and an 80 - billion - yuan 6 - month repurchase - type reverse repurchase operation was carried out on Monday. The monthly net injection of the repurchase - type reverse repurchase increased by 100 billion yuan to 500 billion yuan compared with October. Affected by tax payments and government bond payments, the funds tightened in the first half of the week and then loosened. DR001 reached 1.53% at one point and fell to 1.32% on Friday [3][7]. - The trading volume of pledged repurchase first decreased and then increased, with the average daily trading volume decreasing by 0.15 trillion yuan to 7.29 trillion yuan compared with last week. The net lending of large - scale banks first decreased and then increased, returning to 4 trillion yuan on Friday. The net lending of joint - stock banks and city commercial banks increased after Tuesday, but the net lending of joint - stock banks decreased again on Friday. The new - caliber funds gap index reached - 398 on Tuesday and then fell to - 4117 on Friday, lower than - 1918 last Friday [14]. - As of Friday, the cross - month progress of inter - bank institutions was at the lowest level in recent years, and the cross - month progress of the exchange was only higher than that in 2024. The overall cross - month progress of the market was 9.6%, 4.4 percentage points lower than the average from 2020 - 2024 [18]. - After the "Financial Times" mentioned "fund idling", the market's attention to the winning bid rate of the repurchase - type reverse repurchase increased. The 6 - month repurchase - type reverse repurchase injection in November reached 800 billion yuan, with a net injection of 500 billion yuan, reflecting the central bank's intention to maintain sufficient liquidity. However, due to the large maturity of certificates of deposit and banks' high demand for medium - term liquidity across the Spring Festival, the winning bid rate may be affected. The central bank may not intentionally raise the winning bid rate, but a significant decline may require a policy rate cut [20][21]. 1.2 Next Week's Funds Outlook - The expected government bond payment scale next week is 557.3 billion yuan, with a net payment of 308.8 billion yuan, a decrease from this week. It is estimated that the government bond issuance scale in November is 1.94 trillion yuan, with a net financing of 1.25 trillion yuan, an increase of about 720 billion yuan compared with October. It is estimated that the government bond issuance scale in December is about 2.28 trillion yuan, with a net financing of about 670 billion yuan [31][38][40]. - The maturity scale of the 7 - day reverse repurchase next week will increase from 1.122 trillion yuan to 1.676 trillion yuan, and there will also be a 900 - billion - yuan MLF maturity on Tuesday. Although the increase in reverse repurchase maturity, government bond payment pressure, and institutions' cross - month funds demand may disturb the funds, the central bank's MLF is expected to be renewed in excess, and the year - end fiscal expenditure may hedge the impact. If the central bank's policy framework remains unchanged, the funds rate may decline next week [49]. II. Inter - bank Certificates of Deposit - The 1 - year Shibor rate remained unchanged at 1.65% this week. The net repayment scale of inter - bank certificates of deposit increased by 36.97 billion yuan to 38.71 billion yuan compared with last week. The net financing scales of state - owned banks, joint - stock banks, city commercial banks, and rural commercial banks were - 195.9 billion yuan, - 162.7 billion yuan, - 26.7 billion yuan, and - 13.7 billion yuan respectively. The issuance proportion of 1 - year certificates of deposit increased to 39%. The maturity scale of certificates of deposit next week is about 775.2 billion yuan, a decrease of 145.8 billion yuan compared with this week [50][52]. - The issuance success rates of rural commercial banks, joint - stock banks, and city commercial banks decreased compared with last week, while that of state - owned banks increased. The issuance spread between city commercial banks and joint - stock banks for 1 - year certificates of deposit narrowed. Affected by the increased funds fluctuations, fund companies tended to reduce their holdings of certificates of deposit, the willingness of money market funds to increase their holdings declined significantly, the demand of wealth management products and other products was relatively stable, and joint - stock banks tended to increase their holdings. The relative strength index of supply and demand for certificates of deposit continued to decline, falling by 4.1 percentage points to 37.7% on Friday, still in a relatively strong range. The supply - demand index of 6 - month certificates of deposit increased, while that of other maturities decreased slightly [53][65]. III. Bill Market - The bill rate continued to rise after Tuesday this week. The 3 - month and 6 - month national bill rates increased by 18BP and 14BP respectively compared with November 14th, reaching 0.58% and 0.77% [70]. IV. Bond Trading Sentiment Tracking - The bond market continued to fluctuate narrowly this week, and the credit and secondary - tier perpetual bond spreads were relatively stable. The willingness of large - scale banks to increase their bond holdings decreased slightly, mainly due to the significant weakening of the willingness to increase their holdings of certificates of deposit, a slight decrease in the willingness to increase their holdings of short - term treasury bonds, and an increase in the willingness to reduce their holdings of medium - term notes. Trading - type institutions' willingness to increase their bond holdings increased slightly, while allocation - type institutions' willingness to increase their bond holdings decreased [73].