Market Review - The MAGA policy framework has been established, leading to a rise in gold and a decline in the US dollar. In 2025, the Trump administration strongly promoted the "America First" policy, resulting in increased volatility in global capital markets, with gold leading the gains and the dollar weakening. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices rose by 17% and 22% respectively, while the dollar index fell by 8.8% throughout the year [3][9][10]. US Market - The US economy is expected to grow moderately in 2026, supported by both investment and consumption. The impact of previous tariffs is diminishing, and fiscal and monetary policies are showing effects. AI-related investments are anticipated to continue their strong momentum, while consumer spending is expected to gradually recover [3][4][9]. - Inflation remains sticky, with limited room for interest rate cuts. The expected range for rate cuts in 2026 is between 25-50 basis points, influenced by resilient wage growth and economic recovery [3][4][9]. - The political landscape, particularly the midterm elections, is likely to maintain a moderate policy tone, balancing economic stimulus with inflation control to create a favorable socio-economic environment [3][4][9]. US Stock Market - The US stock market is expected to continue its upward trend, driven by the AI narrative and recovery in cyclical and consumer sectors. Key investment opportunities include AI-related industries, which are still in the early stages of a potential bubble, and sectors benefiting from the "Great Beautiful Act" [3][4][9]. - The manufacturing and information sectors are projected to be the main beneficiaries of corporate tax cuts, while cyclical and consumer sectors are expected to recover as the economy stabilizes [3][4][9]. Hong Kong Stock Market - The Hong Kong stock market is anticipated to maintain a trend of oscillating upward, with structural opportunities emerging. The earnings growth in sectors such as semiconductors, automotive parts, and discretionary consumption is expected to improve significantly in 2026 [3][4][9]. - The liquidity environment is characterized by a decline in US Treasury yields, with foreign capital continuing to flow into the market. The strategic stability in US-China relations is likely to support risk appetite [3][4][9].